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Electoral Democracy,
Liberal Democracy
and
The Global Recession
of Democracy
Themes
I. Electoral Democracy
II. Liberal Democracy
III. The Quality of Democracy
IV. The Trends in Democracy
V. Why a Recession of Democracy
What is
Electoral Democracy?
 A system of government at the level of the
nation-state
 A means for the people (with equal political
rights as citizens) to choose their political
leaders and (if they wish) to replace their
leaders in regular, meaningful, free, and fair
elections
 Sufficient freedom for elections to be
meaningful, free and, fair
Liberal (High-Quality) Democracy
1. Democracy: “Majority rule”
Popular sovereignty and control over government
Competition, participation, vertical accountability,
responsiveness
2. Liberal government: “Minority rights”
Freedom, Equality, Civic Culture
3. Republican government: “Good Governance”
Rule of law, horizontal accountability, state
effectiveness
Components of
Liberal (or High-Quality) Democracy
1. Liberty: Extensive freedoms of:
• Speech
• Press (print and broadcast)
• Association
• Assembly, and peaceful protest
• Movement
• Thought and belief
• Religion & religious practice
• Language, identity, cultural expression
Liberty (Freedom) cont.
and freedoms from:
• Torture
• Warrantless search and seizure
• Corrupt demands and impositions
• Violence and coercion by state and non-state
actors
Liberal Democracy 2: Rule of Law
protects rights of citizens, maintains order, & limits
power of government
• All citizens are equal under the law
• No arbitrary arrest, exile, or imprisonment
• No one is above the law
• Government power is limited; no official may
violate these legal and constitutional limits
• The courts are independent in structure and
in fact
Rule of Law, cont.
• Right to know the charges against you,
presumption of innocence
• Right to a fair, speedy, and public trial by an
impartial court
• No one may be taxed or prosecuted except by
a law established in advance
• No one may be subjected to torture or cruel
and inhumane treatment
Power is separated and dispersed among
multiple, independent branches and
institutions of government (checks &
balances)
• Executive power is limited, constrained and
scrutinized by an independent legislature,
judiciary, and other institutions
Liberal Democracy 3:
Horizontal Accountability
Horizontal Accountability, cont.
• Independent institutions to monitor &
control corruption & abuse of power
 Counter-corruption commission
 Ombudsman (public complaints comm)
 Parliamentary investigative committees
 Supreme audit agency (GAO)
 Prosecutors and courts
 National electoral commission
 Central Bank
Liberal Democracy 4:
Civilian Control of the Military, Police,
and Intelligence
• Armed forces are directed by and
subordinate to civilian elected officials and
their appointees
• Elected, civilian commander in chief
• Top military command appointments are
made or approved by civilians
Civilian Control of the Security Sector, cont.
• Budgets of armed forces, intelligence and
other state security agencies are reviewed,
understood, and approved by civilian executive
and legislative authorities
• Professional civilian capacity in defense
ministry, presidential (or PM) office, and
parliamentary committees to supervise
military and security agencies
Civilian Control of the Security Sector, cont.
• Armed forces and intelligence agencies may
not operate domestically except under
extraordinary & explicit constitutional
circumstances, with close civilian supervision
• Armed forces are non-partisan, non-political
• Police are professional, depoliticized, and
supervised and monitored by democratic,
civilian authorities
Liberal Democracy 5, Competitiveness
• At least two political parties with significant
representation in parliament and a
meaningful chance to win control of national
government
• Low barriers to entry of new political parties
• No gerrymandering of electoral districts
(independent commission)
• Open, fair access to the mass media for all
Competitiveness, cont.
• Limited or no use of government resources to
reelect ruling party
• Virtually no vote buying or other electoral
fraud
• Balanced access to party and campaign finance
 Public funding of parties and campaigns?
 Public guarantees of TV & radio air time?
 Limits on campaign expenditures?
• Over time, electoral alternation (ruling parties
lose)
Liberal Democracy 6, Civic Pluralism
• Numerous NGOs and interest groups represent a
broad range of interests and values in society
• NGOs and think tanks monitor the political process,
expose abuses, and lobby for political reform
• Alternative sources of information: public has
access to a variety of sources of information in the
mass media, independent of government control.
• Very limited government ownership and regulation
of the mass media
• Independent public broadcasting
Liberal Democracy 7,
Vertical Accountability
The people hold their agents (public officials)
accountable to them
Type 1: Electoral Accountability
 Party system is sufficiently competitive,
 Competition is sufficiently fair,
 Voters are sufficiently informed and aware of
their interests,
So that elected officeholders can be
periodically held accountable, and removed
for bad performance
Vertical Accountability, cont.
Type 2: Societal Accountability
• Civil society is sufficiently pluralistic, resourceful,
and independent of government,
• Mass media are sufficiently independent and
professional,
• Public is sufficiently vigilant and mobilized,
So that unpopular policies & abuses of power can
be challenged and reversed.
Liberal Democracy 8: Participation
Citizens take an active role in politics & the making
of public policies and decisions
• High rates of voter turnout
• Extensive public interest in and awareness of
major issues, government conduct, & party
positions on issues
• High membership rates & active participation in
civil society organizations (CSOs)
• Individuals and CSOs petition and lobby
government
Liberal Democracy 9: Equality
• Citizens have relatively equal political resources,
at least in education, organization, and
citizenship rights
• Women have substantial representation (ideally,
one-half) in the cabinet, parliament, and other
representative bodies
• Economic inequalities are not so severe that
they rob large groups of political voice and
power
Equality, cont.
• Ethnic minorities have representation in
parliament, & provincial & local legislatures, in
rough proportion to their shares of the
population
• All citizens are treated equally by government
agencies and institutions (including the
judiciary), regardless of their class, region,
religion, ethnicity, gender, party, or beliefs
Liberal Democracy 10: Responsiveness
Government Responds to Citizen Demands and
Preferences
• Government changes its policies in response to
clear, consistent, and fairly deliberated
expressions of majority preference
• There is substantial correlation over time between
government policies and citizen preferences and
desires
Responsiveness, cont.
• Aggrieved groups of citizens are able to win
redress of wrongs and abuses committed by
government
• Significant manifestations of citizen interest and
protest are able to have access to the public
agenda, and to be heard by legislative and
executive bodies
Liberal Democracy 11, Civic Culture
Competing parties and groups are:
• Tolerant of opposing views & groups
• Law-abiding, & respectful of the
constitution
• Peaceful, and rejecting of violence
• Willing to compromise
• Unwilling to coalesce with undemocratic,
anti-system actors
Civic Culture, cont.
The vast majority of citizens & groups
• Believe in the legitimacy of democracy
• Are loyal to the constitutional system
• Know their rights & obligations as citizens
• Respect the outcome of elections
• Question but respect authority
• Condemn acts of intolerance and violations of
constitutional norms
Liberal Democracy 12,
State Effectiveness
 The state has legitimate authority: It is widely
viewed as having the right to make and
enforce laws, exercise a monopoly of force,
and extract and distribute resources
 The state has administrative capacity: A
professional, meritocratic, honest, and
politically neutral bureaucracy is able to
regulate, tax, maintain order, and produce
public goods
The Dimensions of Democratic Quality
Dimension Type Measures
1. State Effectiveness Good Governance Government Effectiveness (WB)
Regulatory Quality (WB)
2. Rule of Law Good Governance Rule of Law (WB)
3. Horizontal Accountability/
Corruption Control
Good Governance Control of Corruption (WB)
Corruption Perceptions Index (TI)
4. Competition Democratic Procedure Political Rights (FH)
Voice and Accountability (WB)
5. Participation Democratic Procedure Political Rights (FH)
Voter Turnout Rates
6. Vertical Accountability Democratic Procedure Political Rights (FH)
Voice and Accountability (WB)
7. Freedom Democratic Content Political Rights (FH)
Civil Liberties (FH)
Voice and Accountability (WB)
8. Equality Democratic Content Political Rights (FH)
Civil Liberties (FH)
Gini Coefficient
9. Responsiveness Democratic Results Public Opinion Surveys
The Global Expansion and
Recession of Democracy
1974-2012
The Democratic Boom—The
Third Wave of Democratization
• In 1974, less than a third of all states were
democracies
• By 1984, there were 59 democracies (36%)
• By 1990 there were 76 (46%)
• Then the Berlin Wall came crashing down:
– 1991: 88 democracies (48%)
– 1995: 112 democracies (58%)
– 1999: 118 democracies (61.5%)
– 2005: 121 democracies (62.5%)
The Global Expansion of Democracy, 1974-2012

29.1%
33.5%
37.0%
45.7%
58.1% 59.9%
62.5%
60.0%
20.9%
23.6%
26.1%
30.5%
33.0%
35.9%
41.1%
45.6%
15.0%
25.0%
35.0%
45.0%
55.0%
65.0%
75.0%
Year
Electoral Democracies Liberal Democracies
Expansion of Liberal Democracy
About two-thirds of the world’s democracies
(77) are reasonably high-quality or “liberal”:
• electoral competition is
institutionalized, fair, and open,
• civil liberties are better protected,
• there is a rule of law
• there are low levels of political violence and
abuses or impunity by state security services.
The Globalization of Democracy
 During this period, democracy became a
global phenomenon. Today:
 28 of 33 Latin Am states are democracies
(85%)
 17 of 29 in Eastern Europe and FSU (59%)
 10 of 25 in Asia (40%) +(10 of 12 Pacific Island)
 17 of 49 in Sub-Saharan Africa (35%) (or less?)
 Only 3 of 19 in the Middle East
Democracy by Region, January 2013

100
85
63
38
83
37
21
100
67
43
21
75
22
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Eur/Anglo LAC EE+FSU Asia Pacific Is. SS Africa MENA
%oftotal
Democracy
Liberal
Democracy
Global Trends in Freedom, 1974-2012
4.47
4.31
4.24
3.85
3.64 3.48
3.22 3.30 3.31
5.05 4.84 4.76
4.35
4.08 3.89
3.61
3.70 3.69
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Year
World Developing World
Regional Trends in Freedom, 1974-2012
6.19
3.81
2.37
1.94
3.70
2.62
2.42 2.39
4.42
4.19
3.86
3.51
5.45 5.36
4.44
4.41
6.50
4.50
5.17 5.17
5.28 5.32
5.50
5.16
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Year
CEE LAC Asia-Pacific SS Africa FSU MENA
The Democratic Recession
 The expansion of democracy peaked in 2005
at 62.5% of all states. Since then it has
declined from 120 to 117 democracies.
 No significant gain in number of democracies
in seven years
 Seven consecutive years of declining freedom
scores, losses outpacing gains.
 Significant erosion of democracy in Africa.
Democratic Recession cont.
 The rate of democratic breakdown since 1999
has been nearly twice the pace of the
preceding 12 years.
 30 breakdowns or reversals of democracy
since 1999 (More than half of the total during
the third wave).
 These have come in some large strategic
states:
• Pakistan, Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela, Thailand, Ban
gladesh, the Philippines, and Kenya.
Ratio of Declines to Gains in Freedom, 1991-2012
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Year
Breakdowns of Democracy (examples)
Type of Breakdown Number of Such
Breakdowns
Percent of all
Democracies
(171) during
Third Wave
Countries with dates of
democratic breakdown and
renewal
Breakdown
with
subsequent
return to
democracy
29 17.0%
India (1975, 1977)
Turkey (1980, 1983)
Ghana (1981, 2000)
Nigeria (1983, 1999)
Fiji (1987, 1997)
Thailand (1991,1993)
Peru (1992, 2001)
Lesotho (1994, 2002)
Zambia (1996, 2001)
Bangladesh (2007, 2008)
Philippines (2007, 2010)
Thailand (2006, 2011)
Niger (2009, 2011)
Georgia (2008, 2012)
Breakdowns of Democracy, examples
Type of
Breakdown
Number of
Such
Break-
downs
Percent of all
Democracies
(171) during
Third Wave
Countries with dates of democratic
breakdown and renewal
Breakdown
with no
return to
democracy
by 2011
27 15.8%
Lebanon (1975) Sudan (1989)
The Gambia (1994) Pakistan (1999)
Fiji (2000) Kyrgyzstan (1998)
Russia (2000) Nepal (2002)
Nigeria (2003) Venezuela (2005)
Kenya (2007) Mauritania (2008)
Honduras (2009) Madagascar (2009)
Mozambique (2009) Haiti (2010)
Burundi (2010) Sri Lanka (2010)
Guinea Bissau (2010) Nicaragua (2011)
Mali (2012) Maldives (2012)
56 32.7%
Rate of Democratic Breakdown
1974-2011
16.00%
11.72%
19.86%
31.95%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Time Period
Freedom before Democratic Breakdowns 1999-
2011
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Political Rights Civil Liberties
Other Worrisome Trends
 The authoritarian backlash against civil society
 Fiscal disarray (weakening of democracy?) in
the West
Why Democracy is in Danger
1. Weak Rule of Law
 Corruption, abuse of power
 Abuse of ind rights, impunity
 Violence, criminality, lawlessness
2. Executive abuse of power;
weak constraints on executives by
constitution, parliament, civil society
Why Democracy is in Danger 2
3. Ethnic & religious divisions
4. Weak & Ineffective Political
Institutions
(parties, parliaments, systems of
horizontal accountability)
5. Poor Economic Performance
• Poverty, inequality, injustice
BAD GOVERNANCE
Trends In Political Rights, ROL, and Civil Liberties
in Africa, 2005-2011
0.50
0.51 0.50
0.49
0.47
0.46
0.48
0.42
0.41
0.41 0.40
0.39 0.38 0.38
0.54 0.54 0.54
0.53 0.52
0.51 0.51
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Political/Electoral Rights Transparency/Rule of Law Civil Liberties

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Electoral Democracy, Liberal Democracy and the Global Recession of Democracy

  • 1. Electoral Democracy, Liberal Democracy and The Global Recession of Democracy
  • 2. Themes I. Electoral Democracy II. Liberal Democracy III. The Quality of Democracy IV. The Trends in Democracy V. Why a Recession of Democracy
  • 3. What is Electoral Democracy?  A system of government at the level of the nation-state  A means for the people (with equal political rights as citizens) to choose their political leaders and (if they wish) to replace their leaders in regular, meaningful, free, and fair elections  Sufficient freedom for elections to be meaningful, free and, fair
  • 4. Liberal (High-Quality) Democracy 1. Democracy: “Majority rule” Popular sovereignty and control over government Competition, participation, vertical accountability, responsiveness 2. Liberal government: “Minority rights” Freedom, Equality, Civic Culture 3. Republican government: “Good Governance” Rule of law, horizontal accountability, state effectiveness
  • 5. Components of Liberal (or High-Quality) Democracy 1. Liberty: Extensive freedoms of: • Speech • Press (print and broadcast) • Association • Assembly, and peaceful protest • Movement • Thought and belief • Religion & religious practice • Language, identity, cultural expression
  • 6. Liberty (Freedom) cont. and freedoms from: • Torture • Warrantless search and seizure • Corrupt demands and impositions • Violence and coercion by state and non-state actors
  • 7. Liberal Democracy 2: Rule of Law protects rights of citizens, maintains order, & limits power of government • All citizens are equal under the law • No arbitrary arrest, exile, or imprisonment • No one is above the law • Government power is limited; no official may violate these legal and constitutional limits • The courts are independent in structure and in fact
  • 8. Rule of Law, cont. • Right to know the charges against you, presumption of innocence • Right to a fair, speedy, and public trial by an impartial court • No one may be taxed or prosecuted except by a law established in advance • No one may be subjected to torture or cruel and inhumane treatment
  • 9. Power is separated and dispersed among multiple, independent branches and institutions of government (checks & balances) • Executive power is limited, constrained and scrutinized by an independent legislature, judiciary, and other institutions Liberal Democracy 3: Horizontal Accountability
  • 10. Horizontal Accountability, cont. • Independent institutions to monitor & control corruption & abuse of power  Counter-corruption commission  Ombudsman (public complaints comm)  Parliamentary investigative committees  Supreme audit agency (GAO)  Prosecutors and courts  National electoral commission  Central Bank
  • 11. Liberal Democracy 4: Civilian Control of the Military, Police, and Intelligence • Armed forces are directed by and subordinate to civilian elected officials and their appointees • Elected, civilian commander in chief • Top military command appointments are made or approved by civilians
  • 12. Civilian Control of the Security Sector, cont. • Budgets of armed forces, intelligence and other state security agencies are reviewed, understood, and approved by civilian executive and legislative authorities • Professional civilian capacity in defense ministry, presidential (or PM) office, and parliamentary committees to supervise military and security agencies
  • 13. Civilian Control of the Security Sector, cont. • Armed forces and intelligence agencies may not operate domestically except under extraordinary & explicit constitutional circumstances, with close civilian supervision • Armed forces are non-partisan, non-political • Police are professional, depoliticized, and supervised and monitored by democratic, civilian authorities
  • 14. Liberal Democracy 5, Competitiveness • At least two political parties with significant representation in parliament and a meaningful chance to win control of national government • Low barriers to entry of new political parties • No gerrymandering of electoral districts (independent commission) • Open, fair access to the mass media for all
  • 15. Competitiveness, cont. • Limited or no use of government resources to reelect ruling party • Virtually no vote buying or other electoral fraud • Balanced access to party and campaign finance  Public funding of parties and campaigns?  Public guarantees of TV & radio air time?  Limits on campaign expenditures? • Over time, electoral alternation (ruling parties lose)
  • 16. Liberal Democracy 6, Civic Pluralism • Numerous NGOs and interest groups represent a broad range of interests and values in society • NGOs and think tanks monitor the political process, expose abuses, and lobby for political reform • Alternative sources of information: public has access to a variety of sources of information in the mass media, independent of government control. • Very limited government ownership and regulation of the mass media • Independent public broadcasting
  • 17. Liberal Democracy 7, Vertical Accountability The people hold their agents (public officials) accountable to them Type 1: Electoral Accountability  Party system is sufficiently competitive,  Competition is sufficiently fair,  Voters are sufficiently informed and aware of their interests, So that elected officeholders can be periodically held accountable, and removed for bad performance
  • 18. Vertical Accountability, cont. Type 2: Societal Accountability • Civil society is sufficiently pluralistic, resourceful, and independent of government, • Mass media are sufficiently independent and professional, • Public is sufficiently vigilant and mobilized, So that unpopular policies & abuses of power can be challenged and reversed.
  • 19. Liberal Democracy 8: Participation Citizens take an active role in politics & the making of public policies and decisions • High rates of voter turnout • Extensive public interest in and awareness of major issues, government conduct, & party positions on issues • High membership rates & active participation in civil society organizations (CSOs) • Individuals and CSOs petition and lobby government
  • 20. Liberal Democracy 9: Equality • Citizens have relatively equal political resources, at least in education, organization, and citizenship rights • Women have substantial representation (ideally, one-half) in the cabinet, parliament, and other representative bodies • Economic inequalities are not so severe that they rob large groups of political voice and power
  • 21. Equality, cont. • Ethnic minorities have representation in parliament, & provincial & local legislatures, in rough proportion to their shares of the population • All citizens are treated equally by government agencies and institutions (including the judiciary), regardless of their class, region, religion, ethnicity, gender, party, or beliefs
  • 22. Liberal Democracy 10: Responsiveness Government Responds to Citizen Demands and Preferences • Government changes its policies in response to clear, consistent, and fairly deliberated expressions of majority preference • There is substantial correlation over time between government policies and citizen preferences and desires
  • 23. Responsiveness, cont. • Aggrieved groups of citizens are able to win redress of wrongs and abuses committed by government • Significant manifestations of citizen interest and protest are able to have access to the public agenda, and to be heard by legislative and executive bodies
  • 24. Liberal Democracy 11, Civic Culture Competing parties and groups are: • Tolerant of opposing views & groups • Law-abiding, & respectful of the constitution • Peaceful, and rejecting of violence • Willing to compromise • Unwilling to coalesce with undemocratic, anti-system actors
  • 25. Civic Culture, cont. The vast majority of citizens & groups • Believe in the legitimacy of democracy • Are loyal to the constitutional system • Know their rights & obligations as citizens • Respect the outcome of elections • Question but respect authority • Condemn acts of intolerance and violations of constitutional norms
  • 26. Liberal Democracy 12, State Effectiveness  The state has legitimate authority: It is widely viewed as having the right to make and enforce laws, exercise a monopoly of force, and extract and distribute resources  The state has administrative capacity: A professional, meritocratic, honest, and politically neutral bureaucracy is able to regulate, tax, maintain order, and produce public goods
  • 27. The Dimensions of Democratic Quality Dimension Type Measures 1. State Effectiveness Good Governance Government Effectiveness (WB) Regulatory Quality (WB) 2. Rule of Law Good Governance Rule of Law (WB) 3. Horizontal Accountability/ Corruption Control Good Governance Control of Corruption (WB) Corruption Perceptions Index (TI) 4. Competition Democratic Procedure Political Rights (FH) Voice and Accountability (WB) 5. Participation Democratic Procedure Political Rights (FH) Voter Turnout Rates 6. Vertical Accountability Democratic Procedure Political Rights (FH) Voice and Accountability (WB) 7. Freedom Democratic Content Political Rights (FH) Civil Liberties (FH) Voice and Accountability (WB) 8. Equality Democratic Content Political Rights (FH) Civil Liberties (FH) Gini Coefficient 9. Responsiveness Democratic Results Public Opinion Surveys
  • 28. The Global Expansion and Recession of Democracy 1974-2012
  • 29. The Democratic Boom—The Third Wave of Democratization • In 1974, less than a third of all states were democracies • By 1984, there were 59 democracies (36%) • By 1990 there were 76 (46%) • Then the Berlin Wall came crashing down: – 1991: 88 democracies (48%) – 1995: 112 democracies (58%) – 1999: 118 democracies (61.5%) – 2005: 121 democracies (62.5%)
  • 30. The Global Expansion of Democracy, 1974-2012  29.1% 33.5% 37.0% 45.7% 58.1% 59.9% 62.5% 60.0% 20.9% 23.6% 26.1% 30.5% 33.0% 35.9% 41.1% 45.6% 15.0% 25.0% 35.0% 45.0% 55.0% 65.0% 75.0% Year Electoral Democracies Liberal Democracies
  • 31. Expansion of Liberal Democracy About two-thirds of the world’s democracies (77) are reasonably high-quality or “liberal”: • electoral competition is institutionalized, fair, and open, • civil liberties are better protected, • there is a rule of law • there are low levels of political violence and abuses or impunity by state security services.
  • 32. The Globalization of Democracy  During this period, democracy became a global phenomenon. Today:  28 of 33 Latin Am states are democracies (85%)  17 of 29 in Eastern Europe and FSU (59%)  10 of 25 in Asia (40%) +(10 of 12 Pacific Island)  17 of 49 in Sub-Saharan Africa (35%) (or less?)  Only 3 of 19 in the Middle East
  • 33. Democracy by Region, January 2013  100 85 63 38 83 37 21 100 67 43 21 75 22 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Eur/Anglo LAC EE+FSU Asia Pacific Is. SS Africa MENA %oftotal Democracy Liberal Democracy
  • 34. Global Trends in Freedom, 1974-2012 4.47 4.31 4.24 3.85 3.64 3.48 3.22 3.30 3.31 5.05 4.84 4.76 4.35 4.08 3.89 3.61 3.70 3.69 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 Year World Developing World
  • 35. Regional Trends in Freedom, 1974-2012 6.19 3.81 2.37 1.94 3.70 2.62 2.42 2.39 4.42 4.19 3.86 3.51 5.45 5.36 4.44 4.41 6.50 4.50 5.17 5.17 5.28 5.32 5.50 5.16 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 Year CEE LAC Asia-Pacific SS Africa FSU MENA
  • 36. The Democratic Recession  The expansion of democracy peaked in 2005 at 62.5% of all states. Since then it has declined from 120 to 117 democracies.  No significant gain in number of democracies in seven years  Seven consecutive years of declining freedom scores, losses outpacing gains.  Significant erosion of democracy in Africa.
  • 37. Democratic Recession cont.  The rate of democratic breakdown since 1999 has been nearly twice the pace of the preceding 12 years.  30 breakdowns or reversals of democracy since 1999 (More than half of the total during the third wave).  These have come in some large strategic states: • Pakistan, Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela, Thailand, Ban gladesh, the Philippines, and Kenya.
  • 38. Ratio of Declines to Gains in Freedom, 1991-2012 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Year
  • 39. Breakdowns of Democracy (examples) Type of Breakdown Number of Such Breakdowns Percent of all Democracies (171) during Third Wave Countries with dates of democratic breakdown and renewal Breakdown with subsequent return to democracy 29 17.0% India (1975, 1977) Turkey (1980, 1983) Ghana (1981, 2000) Nigeria (1983, 1999) Fiji (1987, 1997) Thailand (1991,1993) Peru (1992, 2001) Lesotho (1994, 2002) Zambia (1996, 2001) Bangladesh (2007, 2008) Philippines (2007, 2010) Thailand (2006, 2011) Niger (2009, 2011) Georgia (2008, 2012)
  • 40. Breakdowns of Democracy, examples Type of Breakdown Number of Such Break- downs Percent of all Democracies (171) during Third Wave Countries with dates of democratic breakdown and renewal Breakdown with no return to democracy by 2011 27 15.8% Lebanon (1975) Sudan (1989) The Gambia (1994) Pakistan (1999) Fiji (2000) Kyrgyzstan (1998) Russia (2000) Nepal (2002) Nigeria (2003) Venezuela (2005) Kenya (2007) Mauritania (2008) Honduras (2009) Madagascar (2009) Mozambique (2009) Haiti (2010) Burundi (2010) Sri Lanka (2010) Guinea Bissau (2010) Nicaragua (2011) Mali (2012) Maldives (2012) 56 32.7%
  • 41. Rate of Democratic Breakdown 1974-2011 16.00% 11.72% 19.86% 31.95% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Time Period
  • 42. Freedom before Democratic Breakdowns 1999- 2011 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 Political Rights Civil Liberties
  • 43. Other Worrisome Trends  The authoritarian backlash against civil society  Fiscal disarray (weakening of democracy?) in the West
  • 44. Why Democracy is in Danger 1. Weak Rule of Law  Corruption, abuse of power  Abuse of ind rights, impunity  Violence, criminality, lawlessness 2. Executive abuse of power; weak constraints on executives by constitution, parliament, civil society
  • 45. Why Democracy is in Danger 2 3. Ethnic & religious divisions 4. Weak & Ineffective Political Institutions (parties, parliaments, systems of horizontal accountability) 5. Poor Economic Performance • Poverty, inequality, injustice BAD GOVERNANCE
  • 46. Trends In Political Rights, ROL, and Civil Liberties in Africa, 2005-2011 0.50 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.47 0.46 0.48 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.51 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Political/Electoral Rights Transparency/Rule of Law Civil Liberties