1. THE FUTURE IS EMBEDED IN THE PRESENT
John Naisbitt, Futurist
Thursday, May 31, 12
2. DISCONTINUITY
A pattern of trends that has the potential to
dramatically change competitive rules
or industry structures, opening up
substantial new opportunities.
Thursday, May 31, 12
3. CONNECT THE DOT´S
People are working longer hours
The number of single parent families increasing
People are getting married later in life
People are spending more time online
WHERE IS THE INTERSECTION
BETWEEN THESE TRENDS?
WHAT IS THE BIGGER STORY THAT
EMERGES WHEN YOU PUT THESE TRENDS
TOGETHER?
Thursday, May 31, 12
16. LOOK WHERE YOUR COMPETITORS ARE NOT?
What is the bleeding edge?
Where could we go to get some
firsthand experience of ...
technological change,
lifestyle changes,
socio-demographic changes, etc.?
Where could we go to get inspiring bursts of
insight that trigger innovative new ideas?
Thursday, May 31, 12
17. Jan Chipchase · Understanding Consumers
Thursday, May 31, 12
18. AMPLIFY WEAK SIGNALS TO ANTICIPATE THEIR
SECOND AND THIRD ORDER CONSEQUENCES.
Thursday, May 31, 12
19. AMPLIFY WEAK SIGNALS TO ANTICIPATE THEIR
SECOND AND THIRD ORDER CONSEQUENCES.
Thursday, May 31, 12
22. TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS
IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT.
Thursday, May 31, 12
23. TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS
IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT.
EXAMINE THE PAST
What have been our past blind spots?
Is there an instructive analogy from another industry?
Who in your industry has a good track record in
picking up week signals?
Thursday, May 31, 12
24. TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS
IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT.
EXAMINE THE PRESENT
What important signals are you rationalizing away?
(detect · fast forward with scenario planning)
What are your mavericks and outliers trying to tell you?
What are peripheral customers and competitors really
thinking? (existing · potential · non-consumers)
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Thursday, May 31, 12
25. TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS
IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT.
ENVISION THE FUTURE
What future surprises could really hurt (or help) us?
What emerging technologies could change the game?
Is there an unthinkable scenario?
Thursday, May 31, 12