Welcome to the Anthropocene: the geology of humanity

WELCOME TO THE ANTHROPOCENE
The geolog y of humanity

ICT for Life Sciences Forum
MELBOURNE, 6 DECEMBER 2012 OWEN GAFFNEY
Adapted for the web 7 December 2012 Director of Communications
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme

Image: Globaia

2012 © Owen Gaffney

ANTHROPOCENE
•  Earth is moving out of its current
geological epoch, the Holocene
•  Humanity is largely responsible for this exit
•  Humanity has become a global geological
force – since the 1950s
•  Adapt our worldviews accordingly

The Anthropocene: conceptual and historical perspectives. Phil Trans A Steffen et al 2011

2012 © Owen Gaffney Image: NASA, released 5 Dec 2012

Insert data visualization from
Anthropocene.info
Welcome to the Anthropocene
http://vimeo.com/39048998

2012 © Owen Gaffney Credit: Globaia/IGBP

www.anthropocene.info
The world’s first website dedicated to the concept of the
Anthropocene

2012 © Owen Gaffney Credit: Globaia/IGBP/CSIRO/Stockholm Resilience Centre


2012 © Owen Gaffney Credit: Globaia/IGBP/CSIRO/Stockholm Resilience Centre

The Great Acceleration


Population

US
Bureau
of
the
Census
(2000)
Interna5onal
database

IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Total real GDP

Nordhaus
(1997)
The
economics
of
new
goods.
University
of
Chicago
Press


Foreign direct investment

World
Bank
(2002)
data
and
sta5s5cs


Damming of rivers

World
Commission
on
Dams
(2000)


Water use

Shiklomanov
(1990)
Global
Water
Resources


Fertiliser consumption

Interna5onal
Fer5lizer
Industry
Associa5on
(2002)


Urban population

The
State
of
the
World’s
Ci5es
(2001)


Paper consumption

Pulp
and
paper
interna5onal
(1993)


Motor vehicles

Global
environmental
outlook
(2000)


Telephones

Canning
(2001)
A
database
of
world
infrastructure
stocks,
1950-‐95
World
Bank


International tourism

World
Tourism
Organiza5on
(2001)
Tourism
industry
trends


Fisheries exploitation

Percentage of global fisheries either fully exploited, overfished or collapsed. Source:
FAOSTAT (2002) Statistical databases
2012 © Owen Gaffney IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Shrimp farm production

IAnnual shrimp production as a proxy for coastal zone alteration. Sources: WRI
(2003) A guide to world resources, 2002-2004

Domesticated land

Amount of land converted to pasture and cropland. Source: Klein Goldewijk and Battjes (1997)
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). Bilthoven, Netherlands

Planetary response


Atmospheric CO2 concentration

Etheridge
et
al.
Geophys
Res
101:
4115-‐4128


Atmospheric N2O concentration

Machida
et
al
Geophys
Res
Le
22:2921-‐2925


Atmospheric CH4 concentration

Blunier
et
al
J
Geophy
Res
20:
2219-‐2222


Northern hemisphere average surface
temperature

Mann
et
al
Geophys
Res
Le
26(6):
759-‐762


Ozone depletion

percentage total column ozone loss over Antarctica, using the average annual total
column ozone, 330, as a base. Image: J.D. Shanklin, British Antarctic Survey

Tropical rainforest and woodland loss

Loss of tropical rainforest and woodland, as estimated for tropical Africa, Latin America and South and
Southeast Asia. Sources: Richards (1990) In: The Earth as transformed by human action, Cambridge
2012 © Owen Gaffney University Press IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Natural climatic disasters

Decadal frequency of great floods (one-in-100-year events) after 1860 for basins larger than 200 000 km2 with
observations that span at least 30 years. Source: Milly et al. (2002) Nature 415:514-517 IGBP synthesis:
2012 © Owen Gaffney Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Coastal zone nitrogen flux

Model-calculated partitioning of the human-induced nitrogen perturbation fluxes in the global coastal
margin for the period since 1850. Source: Mackenzie et al. (2002) Chem. Geology 190:13-32

Biodiversity loss

Mathematically calculated rate of extinction. Source: Wilson (1992) The diversity of life, the Penguin Press.

Great acceleration



Great Acceleration



“Our
foot
is
stuck

on
the
ACCELERATOR

and
we
are
heading

towards
an
ABYSS.”

UN
Secretary
General

Ban
Ki-‐Moon,
2009


This is our life support system
Water Atmosphere

2012 © Owen Gaffney Credit: Adam Nieman

Does Earth have a pulse?

2012 © Owen Gaffney Credit: Tomas Oneborg / SvD / SCANPIX

Modern humans appear in Africa

Carbon
dioxide

Temperature

Methane

Adapted by IGBP from:
Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.
2012 © Owen Gaffney Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.

Beyond natural boundaries

Adapted by IGBP from:
Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.
2012 © Owen Gaffney Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.

World Bank Report, November 2012


2011-2012 Fossil and Cement Emissions
•  Projection for, 58% over 1990

•  Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard
deviation (IPCC “likely” range)
•  Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Le Quéré et al. 2012; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2012

2012 Global Carbon Budget
30
RCP8.5
Historical
4.0−6.1°C
2012 Estimate
RCP8.5 RCP4.5
Fossil-fuel, cement production, and gas flaring emissions (PgC/yr)
25 RCP6 RCP3-PD
Historical uncertainty
Earlier scenarios

20

15
RCP6
2.6−3.7°C

10

5 RCP4.5
2.0−3.0°C

RCP3-PD: 1.3−1.9°C
0
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Peters GP, Global Carbon Project 2012, Nature Climate Change


Dams built 1800-2009

2012 © Owen Gaffney James Syvitski, CSDMS

2012 © Owen Gaffney Credit: NASA LandSat

Pearl River Delta, China

24 OF 33 MAJOR DELTAS ARE SINKING
500 MILLION PEOPLE LIVE ON DELTAS
85% HIT BY SEVERE FLOODING RECENTLY
Parts of Jakarta have sunk 4 metres since 1974

2012 © Owen Gaffney Credit: NASA LandSat Syvitski 2009, Nature Geoscience

Dubai


Las Vegas


“WE WILL BUILD MORE
URBAN AREAS
IN THE 1ST 3 DECADES
OF THE 21ST CENTURY
THAN ALL OF HISTORY

COMBINED.”
PROFESSOR KAREN SETO, YALE


Deforestation in the Bolivian rainforest

Credit: NASA/USGS

We use an area the size of South America to grow our crops
And an area the size of Africa for our livestock.

2012 © Owen Gaffney Ellis 2010

90%
of
total

mammalian
biomass
…
up
from

is
made
up
of
0.1%
10,000

humans
and
years
ago…

domesNcated

animals.

2012 © Owen Gaffney Science, 7 Oct 2011

Paul Crutzen
Nobel laureate
Former IGBP Vice
Chair

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2000. IGBP Scientific Committee meeting, Cuernavaca, Mexico

“Stop
using
the
word
Holocene.

We’re
not
in
the
Holocene
any

more.
We’re
in
the…the…

...ANTHROPOCENE”
“It
was
quiet
in
the
room
for
a
while.”


1992: New York Times journalist Andrew Revkin’s book - Global
Change mentions the Anthrocene

“We
are
entering
an
age
that
might

someday
be
referred
to
as,
say,
the

Anthrocene
[sic].
AYer
all,
it
is
a

geological
age
of
our
own
making.”


1989: U.S writer and activist Bill McKibben publishes the End of Nature


1980s: U.S. biologist Eugene Stoermer’s
(1934-2012) lectures mention the Anthropocene


Sixties space exploration and the 1972 United Nations
summit on the environment gave people a new
perspective

NASA Earth rise


Vladimir Verdansky (1963-1945)

•  Life is a geological
force
•  Noösphere – the
world of thought
driving
environmental
change
Image; Memorial Office Museum of
Academician VI Verdansky Moscow.


George Perkins Marsh (1801-1882)
Man
and
Nature
(1864)

The
Earth
as
Modiﬁed
by

Human
AcNon:
Man
and

Nature.
(1874)

George P. Marsh, photographed by Mathew B.
Brady between 1855 and 1865. Brady-Handy
Collection (Library of Congress). [call number:
BH8201-4981; reproduction number: LC-
BH8201-4981 DLC (b&w film copy neg.)


Edward Seuss (1831-1914)

Developed the concept
of the biosphere.

Image: Eigenes Foto einer
Originallithographie in eigenem
Besitz


Antonio Stoppani (1824-1891)

Humanity is a
“new telluric
force, which in
power and
universality may
be compared to
the greater
forces of earth.”
Corso di geologia
1873.
‘Anthropozoic era’ Image: Paleontologica
Lombarda


When did the Anthropocene start? Start of large-scale
hunting? Dawn of agriculture? Industrial revolution?
1950?
Fire Hunting Agriculture Industrial
revolution
Digital age


Who decides?


But the rest of the world is not
waiting…


Credit: BBC


“The concept of the
ANTHROPOCENE
heralds a profound
shift in PERCEPTION
of our place in the
WORLD.”
Nobel Laureate Elinor Ostrom
(1933-2012)
Planet Under Pressure

Photo credit: Chris Meyer


Centuries from now,
the defining event of the
20th century may not be the
Great Wars, the battle of ideologies,
or even the Industrial Revolution per se.
It may well be the ascendency of a
single species to become the
dominant geological force –
in a single human lifetime.


…Where are we going?
The role of ICT in changing the narrative


The industrialization of friendship
The globalization of small talk


2011 Global connectivity has moved into hyperdrive

2.3 billion internet users (30% of population)
6 billion mobile phone subscriptions
By 2015, 60% of world population will be online

Data: ITU Measuring the Information Society (2012)
Pic credit: Paul Butler, visualizing friendship


Image: Steve Song. Copyright CC-BY


Within a decade A L L but the
most marginalised in societies
will be C O N N E C T E D in new
and p r ofou nd w ays.
Pic credit: Paul Butler, visualizing friendship


Arab Spring

“The regimes thought the youth were divorced
from politics. They didn’t notice that young
people were connected among themselves.”
Syrian activist “Khaled”, Financial Times, Dec 2011.


Arab Spring

Defining features
•  Complex causes but
social media has
defining role
•  Heightened
awareness of equality
and fairness
•  Social media exposes
extent of distrust


Occupy movement

Defining features
•  Social media has
defining role
•  Demanding openness
and transparency
•  Heightened
awareness of equality
and fairness


“Discontinuities are…
precisely what you would
expect if you consider
today’s societies from a
complex-systems
perspective.”

“Social media…have the
potential to facilitate
qualitatively new collective
behaviours.”
Ball P. Nature
21 December 2011


“Isolated, anonymous
individuals overharvest
common-pool resources.”
BUT…

(1933-2012)



“Simply allowing
COMMUNICATION, or
“CHEAP TALK,” enables
participants to reduce
overharvesting. ”

(1933-2012)



•  Reliable knowledge
•  Individuals like to see how
sustainability benefits whole
group
•  Trust others to keep promises

(1933-2012)



Social networking is a keystone innovation


“There is a direct link from more precise
gossip at the watercooler to better
decisions.”
Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman
Thinking, fast and slow, 2011

With social networking we
have a global watercooler

Photo: Jon Roemer


Sustainable Development Goals:
Include ICT access for all


Conclusions
•  In one lifetime humanity has become a global
geological force – the Great Acceleration
•  Earth is moving out of its current geological
epoch, the Holocene – the Anthropocene
•  Action on global sustainability essential
•  Change in WORLDVIEW required. Could social
media be a keystone innovation?


D
N
A
Like

DNA, the word
ANTHROPOCENE
is destined to leap from the world of science into the

GLOBAL LEXICON


www.anthropocenejournal.com
www.igbp.net


WELCOME TO THE ANTHROPOCENE
The geology of humanity
MELBOURNE, December 2012

Thank you!
@owengaffney
#anthropocene

WEB
www.anthropocenejournal.com
www.igbp.net

EMAIL
Owen.gaffney@igbp.kva.se


Welcome to the Anthropocene: the geology of humanity

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