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Results are always greener
on the other side
Lessons learned from failed or inconclusive experiments
Strategy Consultant
@LTatarov
Lev Tatarov
You are not going to get wins all the time!
* N = 90k, May 2014 - July 2016, >=10k visitors, wins = significant uplift on 1 or more goal
You are not going to get wins all the time!
* N = 90k, May 2014 - July 2016, >=10k visitors, wins = significant uplift on 1 or more goal
Inconclusive results
You are not going to get wins all the time!
Inconclusive resultsNo wins
* N = 90k, May 2014 - July 2016, >=10k visitors, wins = significant uplift on 1 or more goal
We need to get better at learning from
losing and inconclusive experiments !!!
Hypothesis: If we add press mentions at the
bottom of the homepage, we will generate
more clicks on the CTA because it will create
trust in the brand
Blacklane
Result: No significant difference
A
B
Conclusion: Visitors are not driven to convert
by press mentions
Next steps: ...???
A great hypothesis begins with the problem, not the solution
Problem Solution Result
Meaningful hypotheses drive focus
Problem
Solution Solution Solution
Problem
Solution Solution Solution
Company goal
Time
Insight #1
Strong hypotheses enable
learning from failures
Start with a meaningful problem
definition
Hypothesis: Because we have unused
real-estate above the fold on the homepage, if
we add press mentions, we will increase
booking CTA conversion
Blacklane
Result: No significant difference
A
B
Conclusion: Visitors are not driven to convert
by press mentions
Next steps: What else can we use this
real-estate for?
Blacklane - next solution
Result: Increased conversion on CTA!B
Hypothesis: Because we have unused
real-estate above the fold on the homepage, if
we add USPs, we will increase booking CTA
conversion
Hypothesis: Because videos are more
engaging and informative, if we use them
instead of photos on the product page,
conversion will increase
Chrome Industries
Result: +0.2% in conversion
A
B
• Use a facade to test whether there is general
interest in a certain functionality
• Saves the effort of full implementation
• Allows gradual testing of functionalities
Smoke testing
Smoke testing
Use smoke testing to measure
demand for complex functionality
before it is built
Insight #2
Hypothesis: Because videos are more
engaging and informative, if we use images
instead of photos on the product page,
conversion will increase
Chrome Industries
Result: +0.2% in conversion
A
B
Conclusion: Difference between variation is not
big enough to justify production costs of videos
for all products
Hypothesis: Because of users’ reading habits (F
shape), if we move the videos link to the left
side of the menu it will be more noticeable and
will drive more visitors to the videos page,
IGN
Result: -92.3% in clicks
A
B
Insight #3
A significant drop in an important
metric might mean you found
something your users care about
or sensitive to
Why? Visitors believed that the section was
deleted / didn’t bother looking for it or went to
find the videos elsewhere (youtube)
Hypothesis: Because of users’ reading habits (F
shape), if we move the videos link to the left
side of the menu it will be more noticeable and
will drive more visitors to the videos page,
IGN
Result: -92.3% in clicks
A
B
Who? After segmenting the results, it was clear
that the change affected mostly returning
visitors
* https://blog.optimizely.com/2014/10/30/the-problem-with-ab-testing-success-stories/
Hypothesis: Because the current layout was
not clean and clear enough, if we give the user
an obvious next step and remove distractions,
cart check-out rates will increase
Rubylane
Result: Inconclusive
A
B
What happened?
Insight #4
If results are very unexpected,
take some time to validate your
test design
Hypothesis: Because the current layout was
not clean and clear enough, if we give the user
an obvious next step and remove distractions,
cart check-out rates will increase
Rubylane - round 2!
Result: +5% cart check-out
A
B
Recap
● Strong hypotheses enable learning from failures -
Start with a meaningful problem definition
● Small or inconclusive impact might mean that you
are not testing something your users care about
● Use smoke testing to measure demand for complex
functionality before it is built
● A significant drop in an important metric might
mean you found something your users care about
or sensitive to
● If results are very unexpected, take some time to
validate your test design
Thanks for listening…..
Lev Tatarov
Strategy Consultant
@LTatarov
Questions?

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Optimization Summer Games - Get started with A/B testing

  • 1. Results are always greener on the other side Lessons learned from failed or inconclusive experiments Strategy Consultant @LTatarov Lev Tatarov
  • 2. You are not going to get wins all the time! * N = 90k, May 2014 - July 2016, >=10k visitors, wins = significant uplift on 1 or more goal
  • 3. You are not going to get wins all the time! * N = 90k, May 2014 - July 2016, >=10k visitors, wins = significant uplift on 1 or more goal Inconclusive results
  • 4. You are not going to get wins all the time! Inconclusive resultsNo wins * N = 90k, May 2014 - July 2016, >=10k visitors, wins = significant uplift on 1 or more goal
  • 5. We need to get better at learning from losing and inconclusive experiments !!!
  • 6.
  • 7. Hypothesis: If we add press mentions at the bottom of the homepage, we will generate more clicks on the CTA because it will create trust in the brand Blacklane Result: No significant difference A B Conclusion: Visitors are not driven to convert by press mentions Next steps: ...???
  • 8. A great hypothesis begins with the problem, not the solution Problem Solution Result
  • 9. Meaningful hypotheses drive focus Problem Solution Solution Solution Problem Solution Solution Solution Company goal Time
  • 10. Insight #1 Strong hypotheses enable learning from failures Start with a meaningful problem definition
  • 11. Hypothesis: Because we have unused real-estate above the fold on the homepage, if we add press mentions, we will increase booking CTA conversion Blacklane Result: No significant difference A B Conclusion: Visitors are not driven to convert by press mentions Next steps: What else can we use this real-estate for?
  • 12. Blacklane - next solution Result: Increased conversion on CTA!B Hypothesis: Because we have unused real-estate above the fold on the homepage, if we add USPs, we will increase booking CTA conversion
  • 13.
  • 14. Hypothesis: Because videos are more engaging and informative, if we use them instead of photos on the product page, conversion will increase Chrome Industries Result: +0.2% in conversion A B
  • 15. • Use a facade to test whether there is general interest in a certain functionality • Saves the effort of full implementation • Allows gradual testing of functionalities Smoke testing
  • 17. Use smoke testing to measure demand for complex functionality before it is built Insight #2
  • 18. Hypothesis: Because videos are more engaging and informative, if we use images instead of photos on the product page, conversion will increase Chrome Industries Result: +0.2% in conversion A B Conclusion: Difference between variation is not big enough to justify production costs of videos for all products
  • 19.
  • 20. Hypothesis: Because of users’ reading habits (F shape), if we move the videos link to the left side of the menu it will be more noticeable and will drive more visitors to the videos page, IGN Result: -92.3% in clicks A B
  • 21. Insight #3 A significant drop in an important metric might mean you found something your users care about or sensitive to
  • 22. Why? Visitors believed that the section was deleted / didn’t bother looking for it or went to find the videos elsewhere (youtube) Hypothesis: Because of users’ reading habits (F shape), if we move the videos link to the left side of the menu it will be more noticeable and will drive more visitors to the videos page, IGN Result: -92.3% in clicks A B Who? After segmenting the results, it was clear that the change affected mostly returning visitors
  • 24. Hypothesis: Because the current layout was not clean and clear enough, if we give the user an obvious next step and remove distractions, cart check-out rates will increase Rubylane Result: Inconclusive A B What happened?
  • 25. Insight #4 If results are very unexpected, take some time to validate your test design
  • 26. Hypothesis: Because the current layout was not clean and clear enough, if we give the user an obvious next step and remove distractions, cart check-out rates will increase Rubylane - round 2! Result: +5% cart check-out A B
  • 27. Recap ● Strong hypotheses enable learning from failures - Start with a meaningful problem definition ● Small or inconclusive impact might mean that you are not testing something your users care about ● Use smoke testing to measure demand for complex functionality before it is built ● A significant drop in an important metric might mean you found something your users care about or sensitive to ● If results are very unexpected, take some time to validate your test design
  • 28. Thanks for listening….. Lev Tatarov Strategy Consultant @LTatarov Questions?