1. Long-Run and Short-Run Concerns: Growth, Productivity, Unemployment, and Inflation

6. Output per Worker Hour (Productivity), 1952-2000

8. Capital per Worker, 1952-2000

12. Real GDP and Unemployment Rates, 1929-1933 Real GDP and Unemployment Rates, 1929–1933 Note: Percentage fall in real GDP between 1929 and 1933 was 26.6 percent. 12.8 25.2  .4 1933 12.1 24.1  13.0 1932 8.0 16.3  6.4 1931 4.3 8.9  8.6 1930 1.5 3.2 1929 NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED (MILLIONS) UNEMPLOYMENT RATE PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN REAL GDP THE EARLY PART OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION, 1929–1933

13. Real GDP and Unemployment Rates, 1980-1982 Real GDP and Unemployment Rates, 1980–1982 Note: Percentage increase in real GDP between 1979 and 1982 was 0.1 percent. Sources: Historical Statistics of the United States and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 72.1 10.7 9.7  2.0 1982 79.9 8.3 7.6 2.5 1981 80.9 7.6 7.1  0.2 1980 85.2 6.1 5.8 1979 CAPACITY UTILIZATION (PERCENTAGE) NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED (MILLIONS) UNEMPLOYMENT RATE PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN REAL GDP THE RECESSION OF 1980–1982

16. Defining and Measuring Unemployment

17. Employed, Unemployed, and the Labor Force, 1953-1999 Note: Figures are civilian only (military excluded). Source: Economic Report of the President, 2000, p. 346. 4.2 67.1 5.9 133.5 139.4 207.8 1999 5.6 66.5 7.0 118.8 125.8 189.2 1990 9.7 64.0 10.7 99.5 110.2 172.3 1982 7.1 63.8 7.6 99.3 106.9 167.7 1980 4.9 60.4 4.1 78.7 82.8 137.1 1970 5.5 59.4 3.9 65.8 69.6 117.2 1960 2.9 58.9 1.8 61.2 63.0 107.1 1953 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE LABOR-FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE UNEMPLOYED (MILLIONS) EMPLOYED (MILLIONS) LABOR FORCE (MILLIONS) POPULATION 16 YEARS OLD OR OVER (MILLIONS) (6) (5) (4) (3) (2) (1) Employed, Unemployed, and the Labor Force, 1953–1999

18. Unemployment Rates for Different Demographic Groups Women Men Women Men Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data are not seasonally adjusted. 27.2 46.3 16–19 7.0 16.5 20+ 28.5 52.4 16–19 7.1 19.3 20+ 8.6 20.2 African-American 10.2 19.7 16–19 3.5 8.1 20+ 11.7 22.7 16–19 2.6 9.0 20+ 3.6 9.6 White 4.2 10.8 Total JULY 2000 NOVEMBER 1982 YEARS Unemployment Rates by Demographic Group, 1982 and 2000

19. Unemployment Rates in States and Regions Sources: Statistical Abstract of the United States, various editions. 6.6 6.9 5.6 Tex. 6.4 12.5 9.1 Ohio 5.8 9.0 8.6 N.C. 7.2 8.6 9.5 N.Y. 6.6 9.0 10.2 N.J. 9.2 15.5 12.5 Mich. 9.0 7.9 11.2 Mass. 7.1 11.3 7.1 Ill. 7.3 8.2 10.7 Fla. 7.5 9.9 9.9 Cal. 6.7 9.7 8.5 U.S. avg. 1991 1982 1975 Regional Differences in Unemployment, 1975, 1982, and 1991

21. The Duration of Unemployment Sources: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11.9 1989 14.4 1999 13.5 1988 14.5 1998 14.5 1987 15.8 1997 15.0 1986 16.7 1996 15.6 1985 16.6 1995 18.2 1984 18.8 1994 20.0 1983 18.0 1993 15.6 1982 17.7 1992 13.7 1981 13.7 1991 11.9 1980 12.0 1990 10.8 1979 WEEKS YEAR WEEKS YEAR Average Duration of Unemployment, 1979–1999

25. Two Serious Inflationary Periods Since 1970 3.2 6.2 10.3 13.5 5.8 9.1 11.0 INFLATION RATE RECESSION BEGINS Source: See Table 18.8. 1983 1982 1981 1980 1976 1975 1974 Inflation Rates, 1974–1976 and 1980–1983

27. Inflation and the Business Cycle Source: See Table 18.8. 4.8 1989 4.1 1988 3.6 1987 1.9 1986 3.6 1985 4.3 1984 13.5 1980 11.3 1979 7.6 1978 6.5 1977 5.8 1976 11.0 1974 6.2 1973 3.2 1972 INFLATION RATE Inflation During Three Expansions

30. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) 2.2 1.6 2.3 3.0 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.0 4.2 5.4 4.8 4.1 3.6 1.9 3.6 4.3 PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN CPI Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. 99.6 3.2 1983 32.4 2.9 1966 166.6 1999 96.5 6.2 1982 31.5 1.6 1965 163.0 1998 90.9 10.3 1981 31.0 1.3 1964 160.5 1997 82.4 13.5 1980 30.6 1.3 1963 156.9 1996 72.6 11.3 1979 30.2 1.0 1962 152.4 1995 65.2 7.6 1978 29.9 1.0 1961 148.2 1994 60.6 6.5 1977 29.6 1.7 1960 144.5 1993 56.9 5.8 1976 29.1 0.7 1959 140.3 1992 53.8 9.1 1975 28.9 2.8 1958 136.2 1991 49.3 11.0 1974 28.1 3.3 1957 130.7 1990 44.4 6.2 1973 27.2 1.5 1956 124.0 1989 41.8 3.2 1972 26.8  0.4 1955 118.3 1988 40.5 4.4 1971 26.9 0.7 1954 113.6 1987 38.8 5.7 1970 26.7 0.8 1953 109.6 1986 36.7 5.5 1969 26.5 1.9 1952 107.6 1985 34.8 4.2 1968 26.0 7.9 1951 103.9 1984 33.4 3.1 1967 24.1 1.3 1950 CPI YEAR CPI PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN CPI YEAR CPI PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN CPI YEAR The CPI, 1950–1999