Seismic Hazard Analysis 2

1. Introduction to Seismology Seismic Hazard Analysis 2 Department of Earth Sciences KFUPM Ali Oncel [email_address] Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM

3. PART 1: SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM

4. From Koji Okumura

5. Rupture zones for large historical earthquakes along the North and East Anatolian faults (Ambraseys & Finkel, 1988; Ambraseys & Finkel, 1995; Barka, 1992; Ikeda et al., 1991) from Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM 1254 967 1784 1668 1035 1050 1043 From Koji Okumura

6. Both walls Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM east west First multi-event trench on the North Anatolian fault Koji Okumura

8. Magnitude area relations Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM

9. Magnitude scales: Body wave magnitude (Mb) Richter magnitude (ML) Surface wave magnitude (Ms) Moment magnitude (Mw) Catalogs: Preliminary Determination of Earthquakes (PDE) International Seismic Centre (ISC) Local catalogs (Ambraseys) EARTHQUAKE CATALOGS Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM

10. Magnitude saturation Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM

11. NEIC: Earthquake Search Results Rectangular Grid Search Latitude Range: 39 to 41.5 Longitude Range: 27.25 to 31 Number of Earthquakes: 3468 Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM

13. 1. Characteristic a. Assess magnitude of potential earthquakes (segmentation, floating) b. Calculate recurrence of earthquake= moment of char earthquake/moment rate of fault = rigidity*area*displacement/rigidity*area*slip rate rigidity modulus (resistance to shearing motion used in U.S. is 3.0 X 10exp11 gm/cm*s*s(dynes/cm*cm ) 2. Truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution a. log N=a-b M MAGNITUDE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM Log of no. of earthquakes >=M Magnitude (M) Magnitude (M) Characteristic Gutenberg-Richter

14. Assumes that where smaller magnitude earthquakes have occurred in the past is where larger earthquakes will occur in the future. Smoothed Seismicity Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM