1. Academic Opportunities For Shaping a Better Future Ali O. Oncel Earth Science Department, KFUPM Chile University, Department of Geophysics, June 23, 2008 Integrated Seismic Hazard based on Seismicity and Strain

2. Integrated Earthquake Hazard based on Seismicity and Active Faults

4. Strain and earthquake hazard Contour maps of GPS derived shear and dilatation are shown in the maps above (middle and right maps, respectively). GPS strains were derived by Kahle et al. (2000) from GPS velocity data presented by McCloskey et al. (2000) for the western Turkey and eastern Mediterranean area examined in this paper. Average shear and dilatation in each seismic zone were estimated by averaging contour values of shear and dilatation observed on the regular grid of points highlighted in the map above. GPS control points are shown along with events of magnitude M>3.0 recorded between 1981 and 1998. The 25 seismic zones into which the area was subdivided for analysis and comparison are also outlined.

5. Complex Variables

6. Median/mean values of multifractal correlation dimensions D 2 and D 15 are tabulated for the full range, 2 to 10km range and 10 to 40 km range for each tectonic subdivision of the study area (shear, extension, and compression). The median/mean values of b, shear, and dilatation are also listed for each tectonic region. Over the full range: D 2 measured in the region of compression is statistically greater than D 2 in the regions of extension and shear. D 15 is less than D 2 in all cases . Over the 2-10 km scale : Statistically significant differences between regions are not observed. Over the 10-40km scale: The larger value of D in the region of compression suggests that differences observed over the full range are primarily associated with variations occurring at larger 10-40km scales . Regional comparison between seismicity and GPS strain

7. The correlation coefficient, r = 0.81 The probability (p) that the slope of the regression line could actually be zero is 0.026 in this case. Cross-plot of b values and D 2 from the Northern Anatolian Fault Zone

9. Izmit Earthquake Increased b and decreased D C suggest that the rise in the level of low magnitude seismicity and high intensity clustering along the western portion of NAFZ did not completely release stress transferred into this segment of the fault zone ( Oncel et al., 1995, Non.Lineer.Geophysics; Oncel and Wilson, 2001, BSSA ). This combination of factors - westward migration along with increased levels of low magnitude seismicity and higher intensity seismic clustering - are indicators of increased seismic risk in the area. Low-magnitude events (Preshocks) Positive Correlation

13. Mean magnitude and Geodetical Strain Integrated Earthquake Hazard based on Seismicity and Geodetical Moment

17. Asperity based Hazard Model T L (M) = dT/10 (a-bM) Oncel and Wyss, 2000