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Forum for the Future: Creating sustainable behaviour Thursday April 15th 2010 Oliver Payne, Founder, CEO, The Hunting Dynasty [email_address] ,  For Forum for the Future Scholars and fellow Sustainability Professionals, As part of the  Mainstreaming Sustainable Consumption  exploration
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12. Irrational escalation:  the tendency to make irrational decisions based upon rational decisions in the past, or to justify actions already taken. The dollar auction is a thought exercise demonstrating the concept. 13. Loss aversion:  the tendency to fear losses more than to value gains of equal size.  14. Endowment effect:  the tendency to demand much more to give up an object than you would be willing to pay to acquire it. The Duke University basketball ticket experiment (a combination of loss aversion and the endowment effect =  Status quo bias ) 15. Neglect of probability:  the tendency to disregard probabilities for absolutes when making a decision under uncertainty. 16. ‘Not Invented Here’:  the tendency to ignore an idea or solution because its source is seen as unfamiliar. 17. Planning fallacy:  the tendency to underestimate the time it takes to complete tasks. 18. Post-purchase rationalisation:  the tendency to rationalise your purchases as ‘good buys’ merely based on the fact that you purchased them – and the reason why a 110% money back guarantee works. 19. Pseudo-certainty effect/Gambler’s fallacy:  the tendency, when seeking positive outcomes, to make only risk-averse choices; but to make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes. 20. Selective perception:  the tendency for expectations to shape perceptions. 21. Wishful thinking:  the formation of beliefs according to what is  pleasant to imagine rather than based on evidence or rationality. 22. Zero-risk bias:  the preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk.  23. Self-serving bias  ( Illusory superiority/better-than-average effect ) occurs when people attribute their successes to internal or personal factors but attribute their failures to situational factors beyond their control. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
12. Irrational escalation:  the tendency to make irrational decisions based upon rational decisions in the past, or to justify actions already taken. The dollar auction is a thought exercise demonstrating the concept. 13. Loss aversion:  the tendency to fear losses more than to value gains of equal size.  14. Endowment effect:  the tendency to demand much more to give up an object than you would be willing to pay to acquire it. The Duke University basketball ticket experiment (a combination of loss aversion and the endowment effect =  Status quo bias ) 15. Neglect of probability:  the tendency to disregard probabilities for absolutes when making a decision under uncertainty. 16. ‘Not Invented Here’:  the tendency to ignore an idea or solution because its source is seen as unfamiliar. 17. Planning fallacy:  the tendency to underestimate the time it takes to complete tasks. 18. Post-purchase rationalisation:  the tendency to rationalise your purchases as ‘good buys’ merely based on the fact that you purchased them – and the reason why a 110% money back guarantee works. 19. Pseudo-certainty effect/Gambler’s fallacy:  the tendency, when seeking positive outcomes, to make only risk-averse choices; but to make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes. 20. Selective perception:  the tendency for expectations to shape perceptions. 21. Wishful thinking:  the formation of beliefs according to what is  pleasant to imagine rather than based on evidence or rationality. 22. Zero-risk bias:  the preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk.  23. Self-serving bias  ( Illusory superiority/better-than-average effect ) occurs when people attribute their successes to internal or personal factors but attribute their failures to situational factors beyond their control. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
12. Irrational escalation:  the tendency to make irrational decisions based upon rational decisions in the past, or to justify actions already taken. The dollar auction is a thought exercise demonstrating the concept. 13. Loss aversion:  the tendency to fear losses more than to value gains of equal size.  14. Endowment effect:  the tendency to demand much more to give up an object than you would be willing to pay to acquire it. The Duke University basketball ticket experiment (a combination of loss aversion and the endowment effect =  Status quo bias ) 15. Neglect of probability:  the tendency to disregard probabilities for absolutes when making a decision under uncertainty. 16. ‘Not Invented Here’:  the tendency to ignore an idea or solution because its source is seen as unfamiliar. 17. Planning fallacy:  the tendency to underestimate the time it takes to complete tasks. 18. Post-purchase rationalisation:  the tendency to rationalise your purchases as ‘good buys’ merely based on the fact that you purchased them – and the reason why a 110% money back guarantee works. 19. Pseudo-certainty effect/Gambler’s fallacy:  the tendency, when seeking positive outcomes, to make only risk-averse choices; but to make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes. 20. Selective perception:  the tendency for expectations to shape perceptions. 21. Wishful thinking:  the formation of beliefs according to what is  pleasant to imagine rather than based on evidence or rationality. 22. Zero-risk bias:  the preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk.  23. Self-serving bias  ( Illusory superiority/better-than-average effect ) occurs when people attribute their successes to internal or personal factors but attribute their failures to situational factors beyond their control. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],How do you use these quirks to create sustainable behaviour?
1. Simply ask
2.  Ask using the right words
3. Ask using the right images
4. Ask using the right authority
5. Ask using the right  fake   authority
6. Ask in the right order
7. Ask at the right time
8. Ask with the right incentive
9. Add options
10. Take away options
11. Ask, but have a default option
12. Ask a completely different question
13. Let the feedback ask the question
14. Don’t ask. ( Tell .)
15. Ask nothing, other than simply to measure
16. Don’t ask anything – other than to go public
17. Ask for a commitment –  in the future
18. Ask kinetically
19. Make the question irrelevant
 
1/4
1/4
1. Simply ask
1. Simply ask  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Yale University researcher Marlene Schwartz in a 2007 study
1. Simply ask  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Yale University researcher Marlene Schwartz in a 2007 study
1. Simply ask  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Yale University researcher Marlene Schwartz in a 2007 study Exposure effect
 
 
4. Ask using the right authority
4. Ask using the right authority  ,[object Object],[object Object],Sutton council worked with B&Q to made 6,000 rolls of loft insulation available at massively reduced prices
4. Ask using the right authority  ,[object Object],[object Object],“ [A] very simple step to make their homes more carbon efficient and to save on their bills” Daniel Ratchford -Strategic Director, Environment & Leisure, Sutton Council
4. Ask using the right authority  ,[object Object],[object Object],“ [A] very simple step to make their homes more carbon efficient and to save on their bills” Daniel Ratchford -Strategic Director, Environment & Leisure, Sutton Council  Social norms Authority effect
 
 
5. Ask using the right  fake   authority
5. Ask using the right  fake  authority  ,[object Object],[object Object]
5. Ask using the right  fake  authority  ,[object Object],[object Object],Speeding fallen by  53%
5. Ask using the right  fake  authority  ,[object Object],[object Object],Social norms (approval) We’re sensitive to whether our actions are being observed by others… even if no one is actually watching.
5. Ask using the right  fake  authority  ,[object Object],[object Object],Making buildings more efficient: It helps to understand human behavior | Grist.org Group A 10 mpg Group B 25 mpg Straight info about energy use   Straight info and  smiley/sad face
5. Ask using the right  fake  authority  ,[object Object],[object Object],Making buildings more efficient: It helps to understand human behavior | Grist.org Group A 10 mpg Group B 25 mpg High users  reduced  consumption Low users  increased  consumption High users  reduced  consumption Low users  consistent  consumption David Cameron’s 30 second description | TED 2010
5. Ask using the right  fake  authority  ,[object Object],[object Object],Making buildings more efficient: It helps to understand human behavior | Grist.org Group A 10 mpg Group B 25 mpg 40% more energy saved   High users  reduced  consumption Low users  increased  consumption High users  reduced  consumption Low users  consistent  consumption
5. Ask using the right  fake  authority  ,[object Object],[object Object],Making buildings more efficient: It helps to understand human behavior | Grist.org Group A 10 mpg Group B 25 mpg 40% more energy saved   High users  reduced  consumption Low users  increased  consumption High users  reduced  consumption Low users  consistent  consumption Social norms (approval)
 
 
9. Add options
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],9. Add options  Rome  (all expenses paid) Voting Yea for the Decoys  | Consumerology | December 11th, 2009 by Julie Adelsberger
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],9. Add options  Rome  (all expenses paid) Paris  (all expenses paid) Voting Yea for the Decoys  | Consumerology | December 11th, 2009 by Julie Adelsberger  ?
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],9. Add options  Rome  (all expenses paid) Paris  (all expenses paid) Rome  (all expenses paid  except morning espresso) Voting Yea for the Decoys  | Consumerology | December 11th, 2009 by Julie Adelsberger  ?
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],9. Add options  Rome  (all expenses paid) Paris  (all expenses paid) Rome  (all expenses paid  except morning espresso) Voting Yea for the Decoys  | Consumerology | December 11th, 2009 by Julie Adelsberger  “… when people cannot decide between two front-runners, they use the third candidate as a sort of measuring stick…” Washinton Post, Shankar Vedantam 1/2
9. Add options  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Hybrid car  (Used) Small-engine petrol car  (Used) Hybrid car  (New) “… when people cannot decide between two front-runners, they use the third candidate as a sort of measuring stick…” Washinton Post, Shankar Vedantam Voting Yea for the Decoys  | Consumerology | December 11th, 2009 by Julie Adelsberger  1/2
9. Add options  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Hybrid car  (Used) Small-engine petrol car  (Used) Hybrid car  (New) “… when people cannot decide between two front-runners, they use the third candidate as a sort of measuring stick…” Washinton Post, Shankar Vedantam Framing effect Voting Yea for the Decoys  | Consumerology | December 11th, 2009 by Julie Adelsberger  Distinction  bias Decoy effect 1/2
 
 
11. Ask, but have a default option
11. Ask, but have a default option ,[object Object],[object Object],When Behavioral Economics Meets Climate Change, Guess What's Coming for Dinner?  | Marc Gunther | climatebiz.com Vegetarian Meat
11. Ask, but have a default option ,[object Object],[object Object],When Behavioral Economics Meets Climate Change, Guess What's Coming for Dinner?  | Marc Gunther | climatebiz.com 83 % 17 % Vegetarian = option Meat = default
11. Ask, but have a default option ,[object Object],[object Object],When Behavioral Economics Meets Climate Change, Guess What's Coming for Dinner?  | Marc Gunther | climatebiz.com 20 % 80 % Vegetarian = default  Meat = option
11. Ask, but have a default option ,[object Object],[object Object],“ Omnivores contribute seven times the greenhouse gas emissions, when compared to vegans…” Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez, conference chair, Pre American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy  When Behavioral Economics Meets Climate Change, Guess What's Coming for Dinner?  | Marc Gunther | climatebiz.com 80 % Vegetarian = default
11. Ask, but have a default option ,[object Object],[object Object],“ Omnivores contribute seven times the greenhouse gas emissions, when compared to vegans…” Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez, conference chair, Pre American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy  When Behavioral Economics Meets Climate Change, Guess What's Coming for Dinner?  | Marc Gunther | climatebiz.com 80 % Framing effect Vegetarian = default
 
 
13. Let the feedback ask the question
13. Let the feedback ask the question ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Chicago Tribune |  A gentle prod to go green
13. Let the feedback ask the question ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Chicago Tribune |  A gentle prod to go green
13. Let the feedback ask the question ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Chicago Tribune |  A gentle prod to go green  (Your bike is hot | Carbon Diem) Loss  aversion Social norms
 
 
14. Don’t ask. ( Tell .)
14. Don’t ask. ( Tell .) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],US Government Subcommittee on Research & Science Education  ::  September 25, 2007 The Contribution of the Social Sciences to the Energy Challenge
14. Don’t ask. ( Tell .) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],US Government Subcommittee on Research & Science Education  ::  September 25, 2007 The Contribution of the Social Sciences to the Energy Challenge Only this message reinforces a social norm
14. Don’t ask. ( Tell .) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],US Government Subcommittee on Research & Science Education  ::  September 25, 2007 The Contribution of the Social Sciences to the Energy Challenge Guests exposed to this message were 34% more likely to recycle their towels
14. Don’t ask. ( Tell .) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],US Government Subcommittee on Research & Science Education  ::  September 25, 2007 The Contribution of the Social Sciences to the Energy Challenge Guests exposed to this message were 34% more likely to recycle their towels Social norms
14. Don’t ask. ( Tell .) ,[object Object],[object Object],HEADS, YOU DIE: Bad decisions, choice architecture, and how to mitigate predictable irrationality | Jack Fuller | Per Capita research
14. Don’t ask. ( Tell .) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],HEADS, YOU DIE: Bad decisions, choice architecture, and how to mitigate predictable irrationality | Jack Fuller | Per Capita research
14. Don’t ask. ( Tell .) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],HEADS, YOU DIE: Bad decisions, choice architecture, and how to mitigate predictable irrationality | Jack Fuller | Per Capita research Social norms
 
 
15. Ask nothing, other than simply to measure
15. Ask nothing, other than simply to measure ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],For Hybrid Drivers, Every Trip Is a Race for Fuel Efficiency  | Washington Post | 2008
15. Ask nothing, other than simply to measure ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],For Hybrid Drivers, Every Trip Is a Race for Fuel Efficiency  | Washington Post | 2008
15. Ask nothing, other than simply to measure ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],For Hybrid Drivers, Every Trip Is a Race for Fuel Efficiency  | Washington Post | 2008 (Hawthorne) Loss aversion
 
3/4
Who’s doing it? 3/4
“ One remarkable note about both the hotel towel messages and the utility smiley faces: neither approach had ever been tried by the industries… Making buildings more efficient: It helps to understand human behavior  | Grist.org
Until now
Smart measuring technology Take a fee for collating and presenting supply data to existing utility companies’ customers
[object Object],[object Object]
Are the results any good?
Real results where OPOWER Home Energy Reporting system has been implemented, it has consistently and predictably delivered between 1.5% and 3.5% in average energy savings across the entire targeted population
Popular interest Finalist for Discovery Channel's 2010 Edison Awards CEO's live interview on Fox Business Featured in USA Today In Washington Post as "best example of climate psychology in action"
Powerful interest David Cameron, highlights OPOWER at TED2010 “The next age of government” President Obama speaks at OPOWER, Arlington “ I want companies like OPOWER to be expanding and thriving all across America. It’s good for consumers. It’s good for our economy. It’s good for our environment.”
Are behavioural communications expensive to implement?
[object Object],[object Object],Never mind what people believe—how can we change what they do?  A chat with Robert Cialdini  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Is there a desire for it?
Making buildings more efficient: It helps to understand human behavior  | Grist.org “ … most of the company’s efforts toward conservation have been tied to infrastructure and hardware…  ‘changing consumer behavior is the next wave of savings that needs to be tapped.’ ” Grist.org/Tim Stout, VP of energy efficiency [Massachusetts utility] National Grid
Making buildings more efficient: It helps to understand human behavior  | Grist.org “ … most of the company’s efforts toward conservation have been tied to infrastructure and hardware…  ‘changing consumer behavior is the next wave of savings that needs to be tapped.’” Grist.org/Tim Stout, VP of energy efficiency [Massachusetts utility] National Grid
Let’s review
[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Takeaway: 3 most common non-rational behaviours
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],4.Scarcity value Louis IV potatoes 5.Goal dilution Tennis balls 6. Chunking Drugs colour 7. Price perception Violinist
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank you

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Creating Sustainable Behaviour, for Forum for the Future Master's scholars and placement businesses

  • 1. Forum for the Future: Creating sustainable behaviour Thursday April 15th 2010 Oliver Payne, Founder, CEO, The Hunting Dynasty [email_address] , For Forum for the Future Scholars and fellow Sustainability Professionals, As part of the Mainstreaming Sustainable Consumption exploration
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  • 9. 2. Ask using the right words
  • 10. 3. Ask using the right images
  • 11. 4. Ask using the right authority
  • 12. 5. Ask using the right fake authority
  • 13. 6. Ask in the right order
  • 14. 7. Ask at the right time
  • 15. 8. Ask with the right incentive
  • 17. 10. Take away options
  • 18. 11. Ask, but have a default option
  • 19. 12. Ask a completely different question
  • 20. 13. Let the feedback ask the question
  • 21. 14. Don’t ask. ( Tell .)
  • 22. 15. Ask nothing, other than simply to measure
  • 23. 16. Don’t ask anything – other than to go public
  • 24. 17. Ask for a commitment – in the future
  • 26. 19. Make the question irrelevant
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  • 36. 4. Ask using the right authority
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  • 42. 5. Ask using the right fake authority
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  • 61. 11. Ask, but have a default option
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  • 69. 13. Let the feedback ask the question
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  • 75. 14. Don’t ask. ( Tell .)
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  • 85. 15. Ask nothing, other than simply to measure
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  • 90. 3/4
  • 92. “ One remarkable note about both the hotel towel messages and the utility smiley faces: neither approach had ever been tried by the industries… Making buildings more efficient: It helps to understand human behavior | Grist.org
  • 94. Smart measuring technology Take a fee for collating and presenting supply data to existing utility companies’ customers
  • 95.
  • 96. Are the results any good?
  • 97. Real results where OPOWER Home Energy Reporting system has been implemented, it has consistently and predictably delivered between 1.5% and 3.5% in average energy savings across the entire targeted population
  • 98. Popular interest Finalist for Discovery Channel's 2010 Edison Awards CEO's live interview on Fox Business Featured in USA Today In Washington Post as "best example of climate psychology in action"
  • 99. Powerful interest David Cameron, highlights OPOWER at TED2010 “The next age of government” President Obama speaks at OPOWER, Arlington “ I want companies like OPOWER to be expanding and thriving all across America. It’s good for consumers. It’s good for our economy. It’s good for our environment.”
  • 100. Are behavioural communications expensive to implement?
  • 101.
  • 102. Is there a desire for it?
  • 103. Making buildings more efficient: It helps to understand human behavior | Grist.org “ … most of the company’s efforts toward conservation have been tied to infrastructure and hardware… ‘changing consumer behavior is the next wave of savings that needs to be tapped.’ ” Grist.org/Tim Stout, VP of energy efficiency [Massachusetts utility] National Grid
  • 104. Making buildings more efficient: It helps to understand human behavior | Grist.org “ … most of the company’s efforts toward conservation have been tied to infrastructure and hardware… ‘changing consumer behavior is the next wave of savings that needs to be tapped.’” Grist.org/Tim Stout, VP of energy efficiency [Massachusetts utility] National Grid
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  • 112. Takeaway: 3 most common non-rational behaviours
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  • 117.

Editor's Notes

  1. NOTES
  2. Non-rational behaviours
  3. 1. Aversion to extremes: the tendency to avoid extremes, to prefer a choice simply because it is the middle-ground option. Consumers Avoid Extremes In Soda Sizes 13. Loss aversion: the tendency to fear losses more than to value gains of equal size. 19. Pseudo-certainty effect/Gambler’s fallacy: the tendency, when seeking positive outcomes, to make only risk-averse choices; but to make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes. 20. Selective perception: the tendency for expectations to shape perceptions. 22. Zero-risk bias: the preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk. 23. Self-serving bias ( Illusory superiority/better-than-average effect ) occurs when people attribute their successes to internal or personal factors but attribute their failures to situational factors beyond their control.
  4. 1/4
  5. 1/4
  6. 8. Exposure effect: the tendency for people to like things simply because they are familiar with them.
  7. 11. Social norms: the rules that a group uses for appropriate and inappropriate values, beliefs, attitudes and behaviors. These rules may be explicit or implicit. Failure to follow the rules can result in severe punishments, including exclusion from the group.
  8. 11. Social norms: the rules that a group uses for appropriate and inappropriate values, beliefs, attitudes and behaviors. These rules may be explicit or implicit. Failure to follow the rules can result in severe punishments, including exclusion from the group.
  9. 11. Social norms: the rules that a group uses for appropriate and inappropriate values, beliefs, attitudes and behaviors. These rules may be explicit or implicit. Failure to follow the rules can result in severe punishments, including exclusion from the group.
  10. 1/2
  11. 1/2
  12. 9. Framing effects: the tendency to draw different conclusions based on how data are presented. Anchoring 6. Distinction bias: the tendency to view two options as more dissimilar when viewing them together than when viewing them separately.
  13. 9. Framing effects: the tendency to draw different conclusions based on how data are presented. Anchoring Mental accounting (current income, current wealth, future income – different marginal propensity to consume, eg: extra 1, spend 0.65)
  14. 13. Loss aversion: the tendency to fear losses more than to value gains of equal size. 11. Social norms: the rules that a group uses for appropriate and inappropriate values, beliefs, attitudes and behaviors. These rules may be explicit or implicit. Failure to follow the rules can result in severe punishments, including exclusion from the group.
  15. 11. Social norms: the rules that a group uses for appropriate and inappropriate values, beliefs, attitudes and behaviors. These rules may be explicit or implicit. Failure to follow the rules can result in severe punishments, including exclusion from the group.
  16. 11. Social norms: the rules that a group uses for appropriate and inappropriate values, beliefs, attitudes and behaviors. These rules may be explicit or implicit. Failure to follow the rules can result in severe punishments, including exclusion from the group.
  17. 13. Loss aversion: the tendency to fear losses more than to value gains of equal size.
  18. 3/4
  19. 3/4
  20. Framing ( Drawing different conclusions based on how data are presented ) Conference meal, Decoy cars Loss Aversion (The pain of loss twice as bad as the pleasure of gain) Ambient orb, competitive dad Social norms (No one wants to be the weirdo) Opower, Ambient orb, towels, tax, B&Q/M&S
  21. Framing ( Drawing different conclusions based on how data are presented ) Conference meal, Decoy cars Loss Aversion (The pain of loss twice as bad as the pleasure of gain) Ambient orb, competitive dad Social norms (No one wants to be the weirdo) Opower, Ambient orb, towels, tax, B&Q/M&S