1. Climate Change – does it really
exist?
Pavel Alekseychik
Khanty-Mansijsk, April 2014
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
2. Brief CV
• Started at the Russian State Hydrometeorological University
(RSHU) at St.Petersburg at 2006
• Continued at the University of Helsinki at 2009, obtained
Bachelor’s and Master’s degree there
• Currently at the end of the 3rd year as a PhD student at the
group of micrometeorology
• Main interests: biogeochemical cycles in the northern
ecosystems, climate-ecosystem
interactions, micrometeorology, technology and warfare of the
Middle Ages Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
3. “Climate – the history of weather on the
timescale of 50 year or longer”
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
4. 1. Climate IS changing.
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
5. Judging by the cave art of Sahara, that place used to be
one huge thriving oasis full of life
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
6. Look at some Dutch Renaissance paintings,
16th – 17th centuries weren’t too warm.
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
7. You can find a trend in any measurements, like temperature here.
So is this showing the changing climate?
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
8. Periodic climate changes may be found to
have affected our civilization
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
9. Looking at a longer period (Vostok ice core), we still see
variation, with a higher amplitude and period
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
10. Ocean water level is of importance for coastal areas.
Not so much for Siberia…
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
11. The ice ages cause the variation in sea level of more than 100m
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
12. 2. The scale of change
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
13. It makes a lot of sence to record some quantities for a
Long time. You just might see a trend.
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
14. Add more measurements, and you will see more trends.
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
15. Derive at what happened to those variables a long time ago,
and you will have a better perspective.
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
16. 3. Driving forces behind the climate
change
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
17. Carbon cycle is probably
THE main cycle on
earth.
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
18. A “dead-end” of the carbon cycle: C accumulation
In the form of natural gas/oil/coal
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
19. Unstable peatland carbon pools
Siikaneva peatland, Finland
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
20. Unstable peatland carbon pools
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
21. Some microbes living in peat exhale CH4; industry also does that
CH4 produces a much stronger heating effect than CO2.
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
22. Methane emissions from natural ecosystems are
Strongly controlled by temperature, but what has caused this rise in
the last 300 years?
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
23. Tectonic activity - a rare, but crucial force
[Siberian trapps, thought to have triggered the Permian
climate change and extinction event]
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
24. Tectonic activity - a sporadic, but crucial force
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
25. Milankovitch cycles: Earth orbital changes are
correlated with its climate
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
26. 4. The climate is constantly adjusted
by the greenhouse effect
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
29. IPCC: real people
Timo Vesala
Sigrid Dengel
Martin Heimann
Jouni Räisänen
Veli-Matti Kerminen… Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
30. 5. But it’s not just about carbon cycle…
- feedbacks!
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
31. BVOC emissions by the forest
- biological volatile organic compounds
BVOC
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
32. BVOC seen as “blue haze”
BVOC
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
33. Feedback loop:
rising CO2 leads to lower temperature??
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
36. Interhemispheric CO2 difference
versus anthropogenic emissions
Anthropogenic
Emissions of CO2
CO2 (Northern)-
CO2 (Southern)
Ref.: Prof. Martin Heimann
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
37. 5. Synthesis: use all the known
relations to predict the future climate
Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki
2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk
