Presentación de John Hagen, consultor independiente y dueño de la firma Renaissance Scholarly Communications.

1. Fear and Loathing in
Academia:
Socio-Political and Economic Factors Impacting
Scholarly Communications in the Digital Era
John H. Hagen

2. Agenda
 Scholarly Communications Today – Where are we?
 History of economics in scholarly publishing –
John Houghton
 History of scholarly publishing
 Citation Impact Factor and Social Networking –
Stevan Harnad
 Environment
John H. Hagen

3. Agenda
 Impediments to open access
 Monopolies and Oligopolies
 e-books and e-journals
 Access to information, scholarly publishing and
human progress
The Singularity: Ray Kurzweil
ETDs and Scholarly publishing
John H. Hagen

4. Agenda
 Fear and loathing in academia
 The 99% - from Wall Street to University
Avenue – An Academic Spring
 Abundance is our future - Peter Diamandis
 Evolution of Paradigms
John H. Hagen

5. Agenda
 Conclusions
 City 2.0 – the future is ours
 Epilogue
 References
John H. Hagen

6. Scholarly Communications
Today – Where are we?
 History of economics in scholarly publishing
– John Houghton
Estimating the Potential Impacts of Open
Access to Research Findings / Economic
Analysis & Policy, Vol. 39 No. 1, March 2009
Economic implications of alternative scholarly
publishing models: Exploring the costs and
benefits JISC EI-ASPM Project / A report to the
Joint Information Systems Committee (JISC) –
January 2009
The costs and potential benefits of alternative
scholarly publishing models / Information
Research, vol. 16 no. 1, March, 2011
John H. Hagen

7. Estimating the Potential
Impacts of Open Access to
Research Findings /
Houghton
 There are two main conclusions from this analysis.
 First, while there are many
limitations, introducing accessibility and
efficiency parameters into the standard returns
to R&D approach offers one possible foundation
for estimating the potential impacts of
enhanced/open access.
 Second, these preliminary estimates suggest
that there may be substantial benefits to be
gained from more open access.
John H. Hagen

8. Economic implications of alternative scholarly
publishing models: Exploring the costs and
benefits JISC EI-ASPM Project / Houghton
John H. Hagen

9. Economic implications of alternative scholarly
publishing models: Exploring the costs and
benefits JISC EI-ASPM Project / Houghton
 The costs, benefits and impacts of alternative scholarly publishing
models revealed by this analysis demonstrate that research and
research communication are major activities and the costs involved
are substantial. Preliminary analysis of the potential benefits of
more open access to research findings suggests that returns to
research can also be substantial, and that different models for
scholarly publishing can make a material difference to the returns
realised, as well as the costs faced.
 It seems likely that more open access would have substantial net
benefits in the longer term and, while net benefits may be lower
during a transitional period they are likely to be positive for both OA
publishing and self-archiving alternatives (i.e. Gold OA) and for
parallel subscription publishing and self-archiving (i.e. Green OA).
This suggests that there are gains to be realized from moving
towards more open access publishing models and that, despite the
lag between the costs and the realisation of benefits, the transition
would probably be affordable within current system-wide budgetary
allocations.
John H. Hagen

10. The costs and potential benefits of alternative
scholarly publishing models / Houghton
Figure 7: Estimated impact of open access self-archiving with
overlay production and peer review services (Pounds sterling in
millions over twenty years)
John H. Hagen

11. The costs and potential benefits of alternative
scholarly publishing models / Houghton
 The costs and benefits associated with alternative scholarly publishing
models demonstrate that research and research communication are
major activities and the costs involved are substantial. Our preliminary
analysis of the potential benefits of more open access to research
findings suggests that returns to research are also substantial and that
different scholarly publishing models might make a material difference to
the returns realised as well as the costs faced. It seems likely from this
preliminary analysis that more open access could have substantial net
benefits in the longer term and, while net benefits may be lower during a
transitional period they would be likely to be positive for both open
access journal publishing and self-archiving alternatives.
 It must be emphasised, however, that these calculations are not a
prediction of what will occur in the future, and nor are they necessarily a
recommendation that governments, funders or scholars follow a
particular course of action. We merely illustrated the likely economic
impacts of alternative scholarly publishing models. Finally, we emphasise
that many of the figures we input into the model were derived from or
estimates based on the literature. A version of the model we used is
available on the Web (Economic implications of alternative scholarly
publishing models (EI-ASPM) for third parties to input other data and
explore other scenarios.
John H. Hagen

12. History of Scholarly Publishing
 Scholarly Publishing Societies
 After Gutenberg’s printing press was operable, as of 1452...
 Cambridge and Oxford Universities, England
 Late 1400s, Oxford printed religious tracts
 Presses at each institution were established mid-1500s
 Harvard University, English Colonies
 Mid-1600s, printed some texts
 Harvard’s press was not established until much later (1913)
 Scholarly Publishing in the U.S., Then and Now: A Brief History and
Implications for the Future. Sue Ann Gardner / University of
Nebraska - Lincoln
John H. Hagen

13. History of Scholarly Publishing
 First University Presses Established in the U.S.
 Johns Hopkins, 1878
 University of Chicago, 1891
 University of California; Columbia, 1893
 Scholarly Publishing in the U.S., Then and Now: A Brief History
and Implications for the Future. Sue Ann Gardner / University of
Nebraska - Lincoln
John H. Hagen

14. History of Scholarly Publishing
 James Bryant Conant, 23rd President, Harvard
University, 1940s
 Challenged the business model of the Harvard University
Press and suggested that a commercial firm publish books
on behalf of Harvard ...
 “[I] might well be the executioner of the Harvard University
Press ... Much as I feel if we were honest and brave, we
would give up the Press, we cannot undertake the
gruesome slaughter ... The death agonies would drag out
for many years because of the nature of our contracts and
many commitments.”
 Scholarly Publishing in the U.S., Then and Now: A Brief History and
Implications for the Future. Sue Ann Gardner / University of
Nebraska - Lincoln
John H. Hagen

15. History of Scholarly Publishing
 Academic Journals
 In time, by the early to mid-20th century, books were no
longer the primary capital in academic discourse.
 Academic journals became the main tool for scholarly
communication.
 University presses were just one producer of early
journals; academic societies began to establish the
corpus of scholarly journals.
 This often led to liaisons with the commercial publishing
world.
 Scholarly Publishing in the U.S., Then and Now: A Brief History and Implications for
the Future. Sue Ann Gardner / University of Nebraska - Lincoln
John H. Hagen

16. Citation Impact Factor and
Social Networking
– Stevan Harnad et al
o Beyond citations: Scholars’ visibility on the
social Web
o Traditionally, scholarly impact and visibility have
been measured by counting publications and
citations in the scholarly literature.
However, increasingly scholars are also visible
on the Web, establishing presences in a growing
variety of social ecosystems. But how wide and
established is this presence, and how do
measures of social Web impact relate to their
more traditional counterparts?
John H. Hagen

17. Beyond citations: Scholars’ visibility on
the social Web / Harnad et al
Comparison of traditional and alternative
metrics in terms of author visibility
A potential strength of altmetrics is that they track
forms of impact not reflected in the citation record.
Heavy bookmarking suggests that an article is being
used or valued in some way; this impact is likely
related to citation impact, but not identical. If this is
true, it should be reflected in partial correlation
between citations and bookmarks. This is in fact what
we found in our sample articles, as shown in Table 3
and Figure 3
John H. Hagen

18. Beyond citations: Scholars’ visibility on
the social Web / Harnad et al
Figure 1: All tags assigned to articles published by Loet Leydesdorff.
Figure 2: All tags assigned to articles published by Stevan Harnad
John H. Hagen

19. Beyond citations: Scholars’ visibility on
the social Web / Harnad et al
Table 3. Correlations between citations and bookmarks
for 1,136 documents.
Spearman's ρ citations (Scopus) bookmarks
(Mendeley) bookmarks (CiteULike)
citations (Scopus) .448** .232**
bookmarks (Mendeley) .448** .441**
bookmarks (CiteULike) .232** .441**
N=1136 **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-
tailed).
John H. Hagen

20. Beyond citations: Scholars’ visibility on
the social Web / Harnad et al
Figure 3: Relationships between log-normalized counts per article.
John H. Hagen

21. Environment
 growth of marginal / area studies
 promotion & tenure
 glut of PHDs
 Publisher collusion
 inept editorial control
 questionable publication and business practices
 monopolistic monographic and serials publishing
John H. Hagen

22. Publication Bias
 Publication bias in evidence-based medicine
 Positive findings 2x more likely to be published than
negative findings
 This is research misconduct and fraud
Ben Goldacre: What doctors don't know about the drugs they prescribe
John H. Hagen

23. Impediments to open access
 Monopolies and Oligopolies
 Intellectual Property Legislation –
SOPA, PIPA, FRPAA
John H. Hagen

24. Impediments to open access
 Challenges of e-books and e-journals
 Format compatibility issues, proprietary nature, leased access vs.
ownership
 Digital Working Group Pushes for Expanded Ebook Access
 Federal Public Research Access Act
 Threats to Digital Lending
 Navigating the Ebook Revolution
John H. Hagen

25. Impediments to open access
 Access to information, scholarly communications
and human progress
John H. Hagen

26. Ray Kurzweil:
The Singularity
John H. Hagen

27. ETDs and Scholarly publishing
Intersection of economies and interests – the
law of supply and demand
Faculty as authors / University Promotion
and Tenure and Research Generator vs.
relationships with Publishers as commodities
of exchange
John H. Hagen

28. Fear and loathing in academia
X
John H. Hagen

29. Fear and loathing in academia
Research without Borders: Protests, Petitions
and Publishing - Widening Access to
Research in 2012, Columbia
University, February 28, 2012
PHD2Published
SPARC Resources
John H. Hagen

30. The 99% - from Wall Street to the Academy
John H. Hagen

31. The 99% - from Wall Street to the Academy
John H. Hagen

32. Peter Diamandis:
Abundance [via access] is our
future
John H. Hagen

33. Evolution of Paradigms
 IP law
 Publisher practices
 Author practices
John H. Hagen

34. Conclusions
 Conclusions
 City 2.0 – the future is ours
 Epilogue
 References
John H. Hagen

35. The City 2.0 – TED Prize Wish 2012
John H. Hagen

36. Humanity’s global challenges
will be resolved when we are
willing and able to look
outward together in the same
direction…
”Life has taught us that
love does not consist in
gazing at each other but
in looking outward
together in the same
direction.”
-- Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, Le
Petit Prince (The Little Prince)
John H. Hagen

37. References
 Ben Goldacre: What doctors don't know about the drugs they prescribe -
http://www.ted.com/talks/ben_goldacre_what_doctors_don_t_know_about_the_drugs_they_prescrib
e.html
 SPARC video – sign the White House petition - http://www.taxpayeraccess.org/
 Open Access Now: Sign the White House Petition, Fake Elsevier Video -
http://www.taxpayeraccess.org/
 How Will Singularity Develop Over the Next 20 Years? – Ray Kurzweil (video)
http://youtu.be/1uIzS1uCOcE
 Research without Borders: Protests, Petitions and Publishing - Widening Access to Research in
2012, Columbia University, February 28, 2012. http://youtu.be/7e1hxgdJK2U
 PhD2published http://www.phd2published.com/
 Abundance Is Our Future – Peter Diamandis (video)
 YouTube http://youtu.be/1uIzS1uCOcE
 Ted Talks (translation options) http://www.ted.com/talks/peter_diamandis_abundance_is_our_future.html
 The City 2.0 (video)
 Ted Talks http://blog.ted.com/2012/02/29/watch-the-ted-prize-wish-video/
 Musical version http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cST7lJ-3HR8&feature=colike
 With voice narrative http://thecity2.org/splash.php
John H. Hagen

38. References
 Houghton, John. The costs and potential benefits of alternative scholarly publishing models. Information
Research, vol. 16 no. 1, March, 2011.
 Anonymous. More Thoughts about the Academic Publishing Racket. Credit Bubble Stocks Blog.
http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2011/08/more-thoughts-about-academic-publishing.html
 Morrison, Ewan. The self-epublishing bubble. The Guardian, UK.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2012/jan/30/self-e-publishing-bubble-ewan-morrison?CMP=twt_gu
 Morrison, Ewan. Are books dead, and can authors survive? The Guardian, UK.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2011/aug/22/are-books-dead-ewan-morrison
 The Bubble In Academic Research. The Last Psychiatrist, February 16, 2009.
http://thelastpsychiatrist.com/2009/02/the_bubble_in_academic_researc.html
 The Academic Bubble. Interorganisational - supply chain management, February 25, 2009.
http://interorganisational.org/2009/02/25/the-academic-bubble/
 The Unexamined Life is Not Worth Living [Blog article] / John H. Hagen
http://renaissanceman1.blogspot.com/2012/03/unexamined-life-is-not-worth-living.html
 The Rich and the Rest of Us: A Poverty Manifesto / Tavis Smiley and Cornel West, SmileyBooks / Hay
House, 2012.
 “An Academic Spring” / Barbara Fister. Libraries, May/June 2012, p.22.
http://americanlibrariesmagazine.org/features/04042012/academic-spring-updated
 Elsevier Open Access Choices
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/intro.cws_home/open_access
 Threats to Digital Lending, American Libraries, May/June 2012.
http://americanlibrariesmagazine.org/features/01122012/threats-digital-lending
 Navigating the Ebook Revolution, American Libraries, May/June 2012.
http://americanlibrariesmagazine.org/features/05232012/navigating-ebook-revolution
 SPARC Resources. http://www.arl.org/sparc/resources/index.shtml
John H. Hagen

39. Thank you!
John H. Hagen
Open Access Week 2012
Hosted by Pontifical Catholic University, Lima
Live event held in Lima, Peru and global Webcast
October 24, 2012
John H. Hagen