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Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook
1. NY Futures and A Index Decrease,
Chinese Prices Stable
Recent Price Data
cents/lb
Latest
Value
Latest
Month
Last
12 Months
(Jul 11) (Jun) (Jul13 -Jun14)
NY Nearby 68.7 85.5 85.8
A Index 83.9 90.9 91.4
CC Index 126.6 126.7 140.7
Indian Spot 90.0 89.9 88.9
Pakistani Spot 74.0 83.9 79.6
Additional price data available here
Price definitions available here
World Balance Sheet
million 480 lb bales 2014/15
2013/14 Jun Jul
Beg. Stocks 90.0 99.0 100.6
Production 118.3 115.9 116.4
Mill-Use 108.5 112.3 111.3
Ending Stocks 100.6 102.7 105.7
Stocks/Use 92.7% 91.5% 94.9%
China Balance Sheet
million 480 lb bales 2014/15
2013/14 Jun Jul
Beg. Stocks 50.4 60.3 61.3
Production 32.0 29.5 29.5
Imports 13.5 8.0 8.0
Mill-Use 34.5 37.0 36.5
Ending Stocks 61.3 60.8 62.3
Stocks/Use 177.7% 164.2% 170.6%
World-less-China Balance Sheet
million 480 lb bales 2014/15
2013/14 Jun Jul
Beg. Stocks 39.7 38.7 39.2
Production 86.3 86.4 86.9
Imports 27.0 27.6 27.5
Mill-Use 74.0 75.3 74.8
Exports 40.4 35.5 35.5
Ending Stocks 39.2 42.0 43.4
Stocks/Use 34.3% 37.9% 39.3%
Note: Additional balance sheet data available here
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
CC Index
A Index
NY Nearby
RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT
Both New York futures and the A Index trended sharply lower in recent
weeks. Chinese and Indian prices were stable. Pakistani prices decreased.
The December New York futures contract has followed a steep downward
trend since late June. Over the past few weeks, December prices fell
about ten cents/lb and marked new life-of-contract lows. Nearby prices
are the lowest since June 2012.
The A Index prices also decreased. This time of year, when the crop year
changes and new supplies will soon come onto the market, Cotlook
implements a dual price system that quotes prices for both the expiring
and upcoming crop years. Currently, the conventional A Index describes
prices for near-term delivery of 2013/14 supplies (shipment in July or
August). This price series decreased five cents/lb in recent weeks and has
most recently been holding to values near 85 cents/lb. The “Forward A
Index” describes prices for delivery in the coming crop year (shipment
October-February). In the past few weeks, the Forward A Index lost eight
cents/lb and has been trading below 78 cents/lb.
Due to renewed strengthening of the RMB against the dollar, the CC
Index has been stable in international terms (near 127 cents/lb) despite
decreasing slightly in local terms (from 17,400 RMB/ton to just below
17,300 RMB/ton).
Spot rates for India’s Shankar-6 variety were stable in international terms,
holding to levels near 90 cents over the last four weeks. In domestic terms,
prices traded between 42,000 and 43,000 INR/candy.
Pakistani spot rates closely tracked movement in New York futures and
fell nearly ten cents/lb recently (from 84 to 75 cents/lb). In local terms,
prices decreased from 6,800 to 6,050 PKR/maund.
SUPPLY, DEMAND, & TRADE
World production estimates for both the 2013/14 and 2014/15 crop years
increased slightly in the latest USDA report (+200,000 bales to 118.3 million
for 2013/14, +500,000 to 116.4 million for 2014/15). Global mill-use figures
decreased (-1.4 million to 108.5 million for 2013/14, -1.0 million to 111.3
million for 2014/15). A cumulative result was a 3.0 million bale increase to
the forecast for 2014/15 ending stocks (from 102.7 to 105.7 million bales).
Revisions narrowed the separation between ending stocks and mill-use and
lifted the stocks-to-use ratio to 95%, implying that all but 5% of 2014/15
demand could be met through consumption of stocks alone.
Meanwhile, expectations for the 2014/15 global harvest are rising. Most
of this month’s increase to the world production forecast was a result of a 1.5
million bale addition to the projected U.S. crop (to 16.5 million). Given the
300,000 acre increase to the planted acres estimate in the USDA’s June
Acreage Report (+3%, to 11.1 million acres) and the improvement in national
crop conditions with the rainfall in West Texas since late May, a significant
increase in the U.S. production figure was anticipated by most market
observers. The size of the revision was a source of uncertainty, and the 10%
increase was substantial.
JULY 2014
Monthly Economic Letter
Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook
3. Charts - Daily
Charts - Monthly
Tables
Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms (cents/lb) due to changes in exchange rates.
A Index & NY Nearby Chinese Prices Indian Prices Pakistani Prices
Balance Sheets (bales) Balance Sheets (tons) Supply & Demand (bales) Supply & Demand (tons)
List of Charts and Tables
A Index & NY Nearby Chinese Prices Indian Prices Pakistani Prices
16,500
17,500
18,500
19,500
20,500
21,500
110
120
130
140
150
160
cents/lb RMB/ton
60.00
65.00
70.00
75.00
80.00
85.00
90.00
95.00
100.00
105.00
110.00
60
70
80
90
100
110
A Index NY Nearby
One Year of Daily A Index and NY Nearby Prices
cents/lb
One Year of Daily CC Index (Grade 328) Prices
local terms (RMB/ton)cents/lb
4. MONTHLY ECONOMIC LETTER | JULY 2014
Note: Movement in prices in cents/lb and local terms will not be identical due to changes in exchange rates.
Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms (cents/lb) due to changes in exchange rates.
return to list of charts and tables
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
60
70
80
90
100
110
cents/lb PKR/maund
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
70
80
90
100
110
120
cents/lb INR/candy
One Year of Daily Indian Spot Prices (Shankar-6 Variety)
cents/lb
One Year of Daily Pakistani Spot Prices
cents/lb
local terms (INR/candy, candy=355.62 kg)
local terms (PKR/maund, maund = 37.32 kg)
5. MONTHLY ECONOMIC LETTER | JULY 2014
Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms (cents/lb) due to changes in exchange rates.
return to list of charts and tables
17,000
18,500
20,000
21,500
23,000
24,500
26,000
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
cents/lb RMB/ton
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
A Index NY Nearby
Three Years of Monthy A Index and NY Nearby Prices
cents/lb
Three Years of Monthly CC Index (Grade 328) Prices
local terms (RMB/ton)cents/lb
6. MONTHLY ECONOMIC LETTER | JULY 2014
Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms (cents/lb) due to changes in exchange rates.
return to list of charts and tables
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
cents/lb INR/candy
Three Years of Monthly Indian Spot Prices (Shankar-6 Variety)
cents/lb local terms (INR/candy, candy=355.62 kg)
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
cents/lb PKR/maund
Three Years of Monthly Pakistani Spot Prices
cents/lb local terms (PKR/maund, maund = 37.32 kg)