The document provides a progress report from TIP Strategies on an economic development strategy for Blaine County. TIP analyzed demographic, economic, and workforce data which showed trends like an aging population and more jobs than employed residents. Interviews identified weaknesses like a lack of higher education and threats like national economic impacts. Opportunities discussed were developing a countywide economic program, talent retention, and long-term redevelopment of the airport site to diversify beyond tourism. The report establishes a framework focusing on talent, innovation, and place-based assets to stimulate economic vitality.
Economic Development Strategy Progress Report for Blaine County
1. AN ECONOMIC DEVELOMENT STRATEGY
AN ECONOMIC DEVELOMENT STRATEGY
FOR BLAINE COUNTY
FOR BLAINE COUNTY
PROGRESS REPORT
PROGRESS REPORT
October 2008
October 2008
TIP Strategies
Alan Cox
Meredith Whitten
4. TIP
TIP |
| what we do
what we do
TIP STRATEGIES INC is an economic
development consulting firm based in Austin,
Texas, USA. Our core strength is in strategic
planning with special emphasis in these areas:
9Economic assessment & trend analysis
9Benchmarking & measurement
9Target industry & cluster analysis
9 Location & land-use analysis
9 Fiscal impact analysis
7. Project timeline
Project timeline
JAN
DEC
NOV FEB
OCT
SEP
AUG
FINAL
IMPLEMENTATION
OPPORTUNITY
DISCOVERY
Data analysis, field work, site visits
Finalize strategies, action items, budget, measures, etc.
Vision, benchmarking, additional field work as needed
Roll-out
We are here
8. Activities to date
Activities to date
• Data collection
– Demographics
– Migration
– Housing & income
– Traffic & commuting
– Economy & tax base
– Workforce
– Benchmarks
• Interviews/focus group meetings
9. TIP
TIP |
| interviews & focus groups
interviews & focus groups
August:
• City reps (Bellevue,
Carey, Hailey,
Ketchum, Sun Valley)
• School district
• 2 county
commissioners
• St. Luke’s hospital
• Hailey Chamber
• Workforce commission
• 2 community-wide
forums
September:
• Rocky Mt. Hardware
• Power Engineers
• Young professionals
• Sun Valley Co.
• Scott USA
• WREP
• Smith Optics
• Realtors
• Entrepreneurs
• Agriculture
October:
• Housing groups
• Land trusts
• Youth group
• 1 county commissioner
• Tourism representatives
• Sun Valley/Ketchum
Chamber
• Sun Valley biz owners
and homeowners
10. TIP
TIP |
| next visit
next visit
• Upcoming communitywide workshop:
– Charette format with break-out groups
– Establish vision
– Identify opportunities
– Form task forces
• November 18
12. economic development (n)
1) the application of public resources
to stimulate private investment
TIP
TIP |
| definition
definition
13. talent / innovation / place
knowledge
higher wages
more jobs
buildings
2010
2000
1990
1970
1980
e
v
o
l
u
t
i
o
n
a
r
y
s
c
a
l
e
EC DEV
EC DEV |
| evolution of goals
evolution of goals
14. The traditional ED model
focuses on place-based
industrial recruitment and job
creation as a means to
stimulate economic growth.
Our model focuses on the
factors that play essential
roles in stimulating
economic vitality in a
community.
Industry
Sites Jobs
Innovation
& Capital
Quality of
Place
Talent
TIP
TIP |
| a new framework
a new framework
15. TIP defined
TIP defined
TALENT
• Individuals that posses the skills and values to
make organizations more effective
INNOVATION
• The sectors and entities that leverage
technology and advanced processes for design,
manufacturing and services.
PLACE
• Viewing the assets of your community through
the eyes of the talent you wish to attract and
retain.
17. 8%
7%
7%
7%
11%
14%
13%
8%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
6%
6%
5%
6%
6%
4%
4%
6%
8%
8%
9%
9%
8%
7%
16%
20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Age 0 to 4
Age 5 to 9
Age 10 to 14
Age 15 to 19
Age 20 to 24
Age 25 to 29
Age 30 to 34
Age 35 to 39
Age 40 to 44
Age 45 to 49
Age 50 to 54
Age 55 to 59
Age 60 to 64
Age 65 and greater
1980 2030
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census (accessed via Moody's Analytics)
● Comparing Blaine
County's age distribution
in 1980 to the projected
distribution in 2030 shows
how the population is
evolving. Our
perspective in 2008 is
near the mid-point of this
50-year period of change.
● The long-term changes
are stark. All age cohorts
over 40 rise as a share of
the population while all
age chorts under 35
decline. The long-term
decline among young
adults in their 20s and
early 30s is particularly
notable.
BLAINE COUNTY RESIDENT POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY AGE, 1980 vs 2030
18. NET MIGRATION FLOWS TO/FROM BLAINE COUNTY BY TYPE
In-State Out-of-State Foreign
SOURCE: U.S. Internal Revenue Service (accessed via Moody's Analytics)
−250
−200
−150
−100
−50
+0
+50
+100
+150
+200
+250
1997 2007
Net Inflow
Net Outflow
−250
−200
−150
−100
−50
+0
+50
+100
+150
+200
+250
1997 2007
−250
−200
−150
−100
−50
+0
+50
+100
+150
+200
+250
1997 2007
● By digging deeper into the IRS
data, we learn even more about
Blaine County's migration patterns.
Even though total net domestic
migration flucturates back and forth
from year to year, the net totals are
much more consistent when
separated into in-state and out-of-
state of flows.
● The net migration patterns within
Idaho tend to be consistently net
outflows to other counties.
Meanwhile, the net patterns with
other states tend to be steady net
inflows of new residents.
19. TOP 3 NET MIGRATION FLOW PATTERNS WITH BLAINE COUNTY
Ada County, ID Twin Falls County, ID Lincoln County, ID
NOTE: Complete data for Lincoln County, ID, unavailable prior to 1998
SOURCE: U.S. Internal Revenue Service (accessed via Moody's Analytics)
−150
−125
−100
−75
−50
−25
+0
+25
+50
1990 2007
Net Inflow
Net Outflow
−150
−100
−50
+0
+50
1990 2007
−150
−100
−50
+0
+50
1990 2007
● Blaine County has significant
annual migration flow patterns with
Ada, Twin Falls, and Lincoln
counties in Idaho. In most years,
the balance is a net outflow from
Blaine to these three counties. The
outflows to Ada County are
particularly notable.
20. 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
1970 1980 1990 2000
Number of permanent households
Number of housing units
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census (accessed via Moody's Analytics)
BLAINE COUNTY HOUSEHOLDS vs. HOUSING STOCK
● Blaine County adds
new housing units faster
than it adds new
households. This makes
sense in a resort area. A
large portion of new
housing units would
logically represent second
homes rather than primary
residences.
21. $0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Median Sales Price for an Existing Single-Family Home
Average Permitted Value of a Single-Family Home
BLAINE COUNTY SINGLE-FAMILY SALES PRICES VERSUS NEW CONSTRUCTION VALUES
● Comparing averages and medians can
be dangerous, especially in thinly populated
areas with skewed incomes. With that
caveat, however, such a comparison can
still be a useful rule-of-thumb when
considering the median sale price of an
existing single-family home to actual local
construction costs for a new single-family
home.
● In many areas of the country where
housing prices in recent years spun out of
control, this type of sales price-to-
construction cost comparison shows that
median sale prices far exceed average
construction values, thus indicating a
potential price bubble. In Blaine County, we
see the opposite. Recent construction
costs have escalated well beyond median
sales prices for existing single-family units.
This hints at the rapidly rising affluence of
new full and part-time residents who will
occupy the newly constructed units.
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau; National Association of Realtors; Moody's Analytics
22. 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Blaine County Jobs
Employed Blaine County Residents
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Staitstics (household survey); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (wage & salary employment by place of work), accessed via Moody's Analytics
● Comparing employment data from
two separate collection processes can
be problematic. However, in a place like
Blaine County, it is important to
understand the distinct differences
between what labor economists call
"household employment" and
"establishment employment". This
means counting jobs either by where
people live or by where they work.
● By comparing the BEA's
establishement-based wage and salary
employment series to the BLS's
household survey, we see a growing
discrepancy. The number of jobs in
Blaine County is greater than the
number of employed residents and the
gap appears to be widening over time.
This underscores data in previous
charts that showed a growing net
volume of inbound commuters into the
county.
BLAINE COUNTY IMBALANCE: MORE JOBS THAN EMPLOYED RESIDENTS
23. BLAINE COUNTY INDUSTRIES
Industry 2006 Employment
Construction 3,506
Accommodation & food services 2,813
Retail trade 2,254
Real estate 2,238
Professional & technical services 1,695
Personal & other services 1,587
Administrative & waste services 1,478
Local government 1,215
Health care & social assistance 848
Arts, entertainment, & recreation 803
Finance & insurance 793
Manufacturing 572
Information 434
Wholesale trade 362
Farm 323
Educational services 283
Transportation & warehousing 239
Forestry & fishing 123
Federal government (civilian) 118
Mining 101
Federal government (military) 84
Corporate & regional headquarters 49
State government 40
Utilities 18
Total 21,976
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (accessed via Moody's Analytics)
● Blaine County's industry employment
reflects exactly what it is: a fast-growing
county with a tourism based economy.
● High employment totals for
construction and real estate indicate fast
growth. In a less dynamic county, these
job totals would be lower.
● Abundant numbers of jobs in
accomodation and food services, retail
trade, and personal services underscore
the importance of tourism to the county.
24. BLAINE COUNTY INDUSTRIES
Industry 2001-2006 Net Chg. 2006 Location Quotient
Real estate +610 2.36
Construction +482 2.46
Retail trade +313 0.95
Personal & other services +296 1.27
Local government +245 0.70
Administrative & waste services +225 1.12
Professional & technical services +222 1.18
Finance & insurance +218 0.76
Arts, entertainment, & recreation +206 1.80
Accommodation & food services +192 1.91
Information +143 0.98
Educational services +94 0.62
Manufacturing +86 0.31
Wholesale trade +49 0.45
Federal government (civilian) +16 0.34
Health care & social assistance +12 0.39
Corporate & regional headquarters +9 0.21
Federal government (military) +5 0.33
Transportation & warehousing +5 0.34
Utilities +4 0.26
Forestry & fishing +2 0.98
State government -2 0.06
Farm -9 0.91
Mining -35 0.92
Total +3,388 1.00
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (accessed via Moody's Analytics)
above average (>1.25)
average (0.75 to 1.25)
below average (<0.75)
26. BLAINE Co. | weaknesses
BLAINE Co. | weaknesses
TALENT
• Difficulty in recruiting &
retaining workers
• Limited higher education
INNOVATION
• Lack of diversity in
economy
PLACE
• Cost of living
• Limited developable land
• Accessibility/isolation
ORGANIZATION
• No cohesive economic
development efforts (no
dedicated organization)
• Lack of countywide
consensus
27. SHORT-TERM
• National economy (effects on tourism, real estate, etc.)
• Reduction in flight service (airlines struggling)
• Continued loss of employers & young workers
LONG-TERM
• Aging population (workforce & tourists)
• Instability in energy costs (effects on commuters &
visitors)
• Rental rates burdening local businesses
• Increase in traffic
BLAINE Co. | threats
BLAINE Co. | threats
28. TALENT
• Educated/skilled workforce
• Entrepreneurial culture
• Public schools above state avg.
INNOVATION
• Healthcare/hospital
• Home-grown success stories (Scott, Power, Smith, Rocky Mountain)
PLACE
• Plentiful outdoor recreational opportunities
• Other amenities (cultural, local retail)
• Established destination/national name recognition
BLAINE Co. | strengths
BLAINE Co. | strengths
29. BLAINE Co. | opportunities
BLAINE Co. | opportunities
SHORT-TERM
• Countywide economic
development program
• BRE program
• Talent retention &
recruitment campaign
• Strengthening
entrepreneurial efforts
• Bus linkage between Blaine
& Twin
LONG-TERM
• Airport relocation
• Redevelopment of airport site
• Other site-specific
(redevelopment & greenfield)
• International investment
• Higher education?
• Cluster development:
– Diversify tourism options
– Green/sustainability
– Health/wellness
– Research & development
31. 7000 N. MoPac, Ste. 305
Austin, TX 78731
512.343.9113 tel
512.343.9190 fax
www.TIPstrategies.com
alan@tipstrategies.com
meredith@tipstrategies.com
Thank you
Thank you
TIP Strategies, Inc.