2. The Hype Cycle
The hype cycle is a graphic
representation of the
maturity, adoption and social
application of specific
technologies.
The term was coined by
Gartner, Inc.
- Wikipedia
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3. Five Phases
1. Technology Trigger
Product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations
A frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be
some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
3. Trough of Disillusionment
Technologies fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Less attention is paid to the
topic and technology.
4. Slope of Enlightenment:
Despite lack of attention, some users remain and continue to experiment chasing the benefits and
practical application of the technology.
5. Plateau of Productivity
Benefits become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and
evolves in second and third generations.
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4. The Policy Response to the Hype Cycle
Legend
Policy Lever
If we map the policy response to the Hype Cycle we see that there are a number
of points where the two intersect to create some interesting spaces.
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5. Mapping Internal Policy
B
1
Legend
2
3 Policy Lever
A Appropriation
D 4 1 Vacuum
B Max Risk Threshold
2 Recession
C Turning Point
3 Resurgence
C D Culture of Acceptable Use
4 Diminishing Returns
A
to the Hype Cycle
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6. Stage 1: Vacuum
B
1
Legend
2
3 Policy Lever
A Appropriation
D 4 1 Vacuum
B Max Risk Threshold
C E
A
As the visibility of employees appropriating new technologies for their own uses
mounts, organizations perceive new and rising risks. Once visibility drives the
organization to its maximum risk threshold it triggers a policy response which
initiates the next phase in the cycle.
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7. Stage 2: Recession
B
1
Legend
2
3 Policy Lever
A Appropriation
D 4 1 Vacuum
B Max Risk Threshold
2 Recession
C Turning Point
C
A
Users pull back as the implications of the new policy are unclear. Education and
outreach become necessary on the part Policy owners in order to encourage
and/or assure business lines that the policy is permissive not restrictive. This
happens regardless of how permissive the policy may appear.
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8. Stage 3: Resurgence
B
1
Legend
2
3 Policy Lever
A Appropriation
D 1 Vacuum
B Max Risk Threshold
2 Recession
C Turning Point
3 Resurgence
C D Culture of Acceptable Use
A
Clarification on the applicability of the policy via education and outreach
eventually reaches a critical mass and usage resumes in a policy compliant
manner.
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9. Stage 4: Diminishing Returns
B
1
Legend
2
3 Policy Lever
A Appropriation
D 4 1 Vacuum
B Max Risk Threshold
2 Recession
C Turning Point
3 Resurgence
C E D Culture of Acceptable Use
4 Diminishing Returns
A
Behaviours prescribed by the policy are sufficiently entrenched in the culture
that the policy starts to decline in value as the policy’s raison d’être is replaced
by a normative culture acceptable behaviour within the medium. This does not
occur until the technology in question is universally accessible (e.g. email).
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10. Recap (1/3)
A. Appropriation of New Technologies
The point where employees start to use new technologies in novel ways. These uses are both
unofficial and unsanctioned and while they may be innovative they carry a degree of risk that
scales along side usage.
1. Policy Vacuum (Trigger to Peak)
As the visibility of employees appropriating new technologies for their own uses mounts,
organizations perceive new and rising risks. Once visibility drives the organization to its
maximum risk threshold it triggers a policy response which initiates the next phase in the cycle.
B. Maximum Risk Threshold
The point where organizational concerns about the use of new technology need to be satiated by
an overarching policy framework. This policy, regardless of orientation, will always have a chilling
effect on users because of lack of initial clarity, the introduction of new rules, and variances in
opinion.
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11. Recap (2/3)
2. Receding Use after Policy Comes to Force (Peak to Trough)
Users pull back as the implications of the new policy are unclear. Education and outreach
become necessary on the part Policy owners in order to encourage and/or assure business lines
that the policy is permissive not restrictive. This happens regardless of how permissive the policy
may appear.
C. Turning Point
The point where education and outreach around the new policy reaches critical mass (that is to
say the policy is sufficiently socialized) and business lines and employees feel comfortable re-
engaging using these new technologies.
3. Slow Resurgence of Use after Outreach and Education (Trough to Slope)
Clarification on the applicability of the policy via education and outreach eventually reaches a
critical mass and usage resumes in a policy compliant manner.
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12. Recap (3/3)
D. Culture of Acceptable use
The point where there is a common understanding of how to use and not use the technology in
question. By this point the technology is no longer new, in fact it is so diffuse as to be universally
accessible to everyone in the organization (e.g. present day email).
4. Diminishing Returns on Investment (Slope to Plateau)
At this point the behaviours prescribed by the policy are sufficiently entrenched in the culture
that the policy itself starts to decline in operational value. In other words, the policy’s raison
d’etre is replaced by normative culture of what constitutes acceptable behaviour with that
particular technological medium. This does not occur until the technology in question is
universally accessible (e.g. email).
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13. Implications
Internal policies are born out of a short shadow of the future
Organizations issue a permanent policies to mitigate temporary risk; that is to say that policy
decisions in this regard are front loaded and focus on the here and now rather than considering
the logical end point of a completely diffused technology (e.g. culture of acceptable use).
Policy shapes the emergent culture of acceptable use
That said, internal policies provide organizations an early opportunity to shape the emerging
culture of acceptable use within the given medium. This allows them to minimize the immediate
risks but the return on investment declines significantly over time as use becomes ubiquitous
(e.g. what would be the present day value of a policy to govern the use of a boardroom?)
Organizational risk declines with widespread use
Monitoring compliance in a world of widespread use is practically impossible, most internal
policies are self-governing in that they simply penetrate the ethos of day to day operations
through osmosis and or are regulated socially by peers or through ad hoc inquiries. (e.g.
whistleblowing)
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