9. CH4 and N2O emissions from agriculture 2005 – Carbon equivalent 43.8% 8.1% 10.5% 19% 12.3% 6.3%
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13. UK Climate Change Programme included a commitment to…… Examine the scope and feasibility of a market-based mechanism to facilitate the trading of greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions from agriculture, forestry and other land management sectors Is emissions trading for the sector possible?
28. ‘ Warming of the climate system is unequivocal ’ – IPCC 4 th Assessment Report Eleven of the last 12 years rank among the 12 warmest years on record since 1850 Global warming is real IPCC AR4
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33. Regional model projections of climate change by end of 21 st century A1B Scenario: 2080-2099 minus 1980-1999
34. Natural climate variability plays a significant role for the UK North Atlantic Oscillation Negative Phase Positive Phase
35. Recent trends in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures Unprecedented warmth of N. Atlantic due to juxtaposition of global warming and natural variability Courtesy: Rowan Sutton N. Atlantic sea surface temperatures Global sea surface temperatures N. Atlantic minus Global sea surface temperatures
36. Changes in Extremes Schematic of probabilities of daily temperatures Assumes that statistics of weather stay the same, which is probably not the case due to feedbacks in the climate system IPCC AR4
37. Soil moisture feedbacks and summertime extremes Change in summertime temperatures by 2071-2100 for A1B scenario Mean Temperature Increase in variability associated with increased summertime drying e.g. August 2003 % change in year-to-year variations
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42. Impact of Climate Change on Land Use Professor Richard Ellis University of Reading
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46. Winter Wheat Note irrigation pipes: no moisture stress
47. Grown at set CO2 concentrations (current or elevated) along a temperature gradient (below to above ambient)
48. Wheat development (temperature gradient) Cool Warm (+3 C) More rapid development, Shorter crop duration, Less radiation capture, and so lower yields Less rapid development, Longer crop duration, More radiation capture, and so higher yields
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50. Effect of maximum temperature (only brief periods) on grain set in winter wheat (P. 69 of The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change (HM Treasury, 2006) shows more of Reading’s research on this topic)
62. Planning (to protect important landscapes) National Parks and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONBs) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland National Scenic Areas in Scotland
67. 1. Socio-economic change scenarios I nternational P anel on C limate C hange, S pecial R eport on E missions S cenarios futures (IPCC, SRES) UK C limate I mpacts P rogramme refinements for UK B asic L inked S ystem World Food Trade model (BLS) 2. Climate change scenario Hadley Centre’s HadCM3 climate forcing projections 3. Consequences for land use University of Reading’s C limate L and U se A llocation M odel (CLUAM) Translates market, policy, technology and climate signals into land use changes Modelling Future Changes in Land Use Overview ( Combination of 3 modules )
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74. Land Use Change in the Kennet Catchment Without climate change With climate change A2 Low Globalisation - Market Solutions B2 Low Globalisation - Sustainability Solutions
79. University of Reading School of Agriculture, Policy and Development Department of Agriculture Professor Richard Ellis Dr Tim Wheeler Centre for Agricultural Strategy Philip Jones Richard Tranter School of Biological Sciences Centre for Horticulture and Landscape Richard Bisgrove Professor Paul Hadley Climate change: are you ready? 25 September 2007
111. Risks posed by climate change to good ecological status Changing river flows and sea level (hydro-morphological parameters) Changes in flora and fauna (biological parameters) More frequent flushing of CSOs (physio-chemical parameters)
115. Key deadlines July 2007: Significant Water Management Issues (out for consultation) Dec 2008: Draft River Basin Management Plan Dec 2009: Thames River Basin Management Plan