3. an interim target for methane levels,
thus 1250 parts per billion methane
in the atmosphere.
4. This is a complement to the “350” idea, and thus
the group 1250 is meant to form a complement to
Bill McKibben’s 350 group, but focusing more on
near-term concerns.
6. We need to get moving to cool the planet's
temperature. Methane is the most effective
place for us to start.
Robert Watson
7. Some differences between
“1250” and “350”:
350ppm CO2 is not achievable, physically or politically, for the near-term.
1250ppb methane, with great effort, could be fully achieved in two decades.
Achieving 350ppm CO2 will demand altering much of our economy, and
probably the engagement of major populations around the world.
Achieving 1250ppb methane demands no major change of world
economy and does not depend on full engagement of world
populations.
8. Further, 350 might never be achievable
unless 1250 is reached first.
“1250 is the route to 350.”
9. Hansen: “There seems to be a dichotomy of possible futures: either achieve strong reductions of both CO2 and CH4 emissions or both gases are likely to increase substantially.”
“There seems to be a dichotomy of possible futures: either
achieve strong reductions of both CO2 and CH4 emissions
or both gases are likely to increase substantially.”
James Hansen, Director, NASA GISS:
11. In working to limit warming over next few
decades, other than geoengineering, sharply
reducing emissions of short-lived species is the
only way to reverse the ongoing increase in
radiative forcing.
Michael MacCracken
12. Achieving 1250 will not - and cannot -
be about methane cuts alone.
Important caveat:
13. Just as reaching a lower, stable level of CO2 might
depend upon getting methane under control first,
so, too, getting methane lower and under control
will demand achieving other things first.
Like what?
14. 1250 might never be achievable unless we
rapidly move to protect the arctic.
19. The greenhouse gas that looks both ways -
towards opportunity and danger.
20. Thus, 1250 is a group focused on
building policy around near-term climate needs.
It is centered around the concept that methane
levels can become central to short-term climate,
especially at times of climate change.
21. ....other than geoengineering, sharply reducing
emissions of short-lived species is the only
way.....
Again, MacCracken -
22. “short-lived species” or SLCPs =
mostly, methane and black carbon cuts
(with additional advantages from cuts
to HFCs, VOCs, CO, etc.)
23. Last year, Hillary Clinton announced the forming
of the CCAC, or Climate and Clean Air Coalition
Its goals were formed around the
findings of the recent UNEP Assessment,
and it has become a part of UNEP itself.
27. “It would be better if all climate forcings were not
packaged together and made interchangeable with CO2 in
mitigation strategies.”
“Sources of different gases are usually independent and
greater progress is likely from complementary focused
programmes.”
James Hansen
28. Thus, we quickly need to rethink climate:
we need both a near-term strategy
and a long-term strategy
how to keep radiative forcing as low as possible
how to avoid tipping points, especially in the arctic, from tipping
final stabilization points
revising global energy and reshaping economic systems
29. What we need are some leaders who will really lead, and some
creative approaches that will entice those fearing moving forward.
Michael MacCracken
30. The UNEP Assessment, 2011:
black carbon and ozone are its targets,
but since methane is a prime ozone precursor,
methane reductions are central to the
assessment.
32. The climate mitigation impacts of the CH4 measures are the
most certain because there is a high degree of confidence in
the warming effects of this greenhouse gas.
Many CH4 measures are cost-effective and its recovery is, in
many cases, economically profitable.
United Nations Environment Program,
World Meteorological Organization, 2011
34. Some reasons include:
• Lack of understanding of the outsized value of methane.
• Lack of widespread appreciation of the need for fast
action to cool the planet quickly.
• Little understanding, even in the air regulatory
community, much less the general public, of the value of
methane reductions in reducing background global ozone.
Global Methane Initiative Concept :
A Fast Action Plan for Methane Abatement, 2009
35. • Political resistance from both big CO2 emitters, and their
critics.
• Big emitters want to preserve methane action as part of a
cheap basket of offsets for CO2; and many climate
advocates would like to keep methane action contained
exclusively within Kyoto-type mechanisms, fearing also
that a focus on near-term climate forcers will distract from
the task of long-term CO2 reduction.
• Finally, lack of any alternative mechanism on the table to
advance methane reductions at a speed commensurate to
their short term value.
Global Methane Initiative Concept :
A Fast Action Plan for Methane Abatement, 2009
36. UNEP Assessment: when all measures are fully implemented,
warming during the 2030s relative to the present day is only
half as much as if no measures had been implemented.
In contrast, even a fairly aggressive strategy to reduce CO2
emissions under the CO2 measures scenario does little to
mitigate warming over the next 20–30 years.
United Nations Environment Program,
World Meteorological Organization, 2011
37. Full implementation of the identified measures would reduce
future global warming by 0.5˚C.
United Nations Environment Program,
World Meteorological Organization, 2011
38. There is a substantial near-term climate benefit in accelerating
implementation of the identified measures even if some of
these might eventually be adopted owing to general air-quality
and development concerns.
United Nations Environment Program,
World Meteorological Organization, 2011
40. The identified measures could reduce warming in the Arctic by about
0.7˚C in 2040.
This could reduce warming in the Arctic in the next 30 years by about
two-thirds compared to the projections of the Assessment’s
reference scenario.....and substantially decrease the risk of global
impacts from changes in this sensitive region, such as sea ice loss,
which affects global albedo, and permafrost melt.
United Nations Environment Program,
World Meteorological Organization, 2011
51. Source: New Scientist, 2010
Changes in Sea Ice Volume: Daily Volume
compared with the 1979-2000 average
Summer Sea Ice Volume:
PIOMAS estimates July- Sept
53. Could ice losses also be driving extreme weather events?
Intense downpours
in Chicago
Scorching heat
in Atlanta
Big snowstorm
in Philadelphia
Intense cold
in Europe
All show anomolous high amplitude patterns at 500 hPa
heights that tend to move slowly
58. Economic costs to U.S. of drought
plus superstorm Sandy and other
extreme weather events
in 2012 alone:
Over $100 Billion
59. High latitude changes in 1000-500 hPa average thickness
in 2000-2010 relative to 1970-1999 averages,
divided by season
Fall Winter
Spring Summer
Francis, Vavrus: Geophysical Research Letters, 2012
Note strong
perturbation
during season
after ice is low
61. Further temperature increase
Icecaps start to melt
Tundra melts
Increased methane
Increasing
greenhouse gases
Dark ground
and oceans
absorb more
heat
Reduced albedo
Our whole society could soon find itself deeply stressed.
62. Further temperature increase
Icecaps start to melt
Tundra melts
Increased methane
Increasing
greenhouse gases
Dark ground
and oceans
absorb more
heat
Reduced albedo
63. 1250 =
Twice as aggressive methane cuts as GMI or CCAC
Arctic protection program
+
