Future trend map by New Zealand's Ministry of Science.

1. IMPORTANT
DRIVERS
OF CHANGE HOW CAN WE HOW CAN WE BETTER
ENHANCE SECURITY FOCUS ON EFFECTIVELY
WHILE ALSO SAFE MANAGING “WELLNESS”
GUARDING PRIVACY? RATHER THAN JUST
TREATING ILLNESS?
ENVIRONMENTAL Tensions between enhanced
security and protection of privacy
Climate change
Resource limitations
Changing Fertility rates
behaviours
Internet-enabled access to
information and services
HOW CAN ATTITUDES Protecting and sharing WHERE ARE THE
Intellectual Property Rights Costs for medical diagnostics
AND BEHAVIOURS and treatments OPPORTUNITIES FOR
BE ENCOURAGED TO CONTAINING COSTS OF
Levels of obesity
CHANGE TO HELP Focus on renewable HEALTHCARE WITHOUT
ADDRESS UNDERLYING energy resources New forms of sharing Moving beyond COMPROMISING
SOCI AL genomic data
CHALLENGES? and visualising information HEALTH?
Ageing populations
Concerns over who Use of genetics to inform health,
Sustainable lifestyles Institutional and Biology becoming Systems thinking to
controls technologies diet and lifestyle decisions
researcher inertia understand complex systems
Affordable access to high quality and resources more predictive
health care and other goods to new ways of
and services doing science
Making sense
Faster, cheaper of the data
Financial markets Manufactured nanomaterials
sequencing of DNA Changing business models,
with novel properties
such as outsourcing R&D
“Bio-nano-info”
Extent, nature and pace Convergences of biotech,
of climate change Characterisation and Faster, cheaper nanotech and ICT
assessment standards for computing
manufactured nanomaterials Concern for ethical
Moving toward a Range and sophistication agricultural production
carbon constrained “Robot creep” of genetic modifications
future Increasing use of robots
Biofuels development for military, industrial and
EC ONOMI C domestic applications Synthetic biology New pests and diseases emerging
Whole of value chain – building organisms and resurgence of existing ones
Profitability and productivity assessment for new Turning cellulose Techniques for from scratch
technologies into ethanol engineering the
Exploiting new opportunities
climate Clinical successes with
Consumer demands
Desire for more gene therapy emerging Demand for improved food
Remote monitoring and
Regulatory frameworks effective and equitable safety and traceability
environmental sensing
Globalisation resource management
Use of adult stem
Developing production cells for clinical and
Having a suitably systems less reliant on oil veterinary therapies GM crops being grown
trained and skilled more widely
HOW DOES THE workforce WHAT SHOULD
DELIVERY OF Biodiversity Design-led innovation NEW ZEALAND
Tensions between short-term improving product safety, Food vs fuel debate
GOVERNMENT techno-fixes and addressing usability and sustainability FARMING SYSTEMS
SERVICES NEED underlying issues Regulatory responses to new LOOK LIKE IN THE
TO CHANGE? science and technologies FUTURE?
Investment in
“Clean Tech” “Green”and ethical
SC I ENCE + investors
Spiritual, ethical and Competing
TEC HNOL OG Y cultural concerns
Influence of multinational land uses
Curiosity
companies and supermarkets
Solving problems and unmet needs on production systems
Access to
Tools and techniques to study fresh water
nature, matter and people
Wild fish
e-research enabling new ways to
share and analyse data stocks
Rapid increase
WHAT WILL WHAT IS REQUIRED
Gradual increase NEW ZEALAND’S TO EFFECTIVELY AND
ENERGY NEEDS BE FAIRLY MANAGE
Decreasing IN THE FUTURE AND COMPETING RESOURCE
HOW CAN THEY AND LAND USE DEMANDS?
Bottlenecks
BE MET?
Uncertainty
WHAT ROLES WILL
Changing
SCIENCE NEED TO
PLAY IN CREATING
For more information go to: SUSTAINABLE “And in today already walks
www.morst.govt.nz/current- INDUSTRIES?
tomorrow”SAMUEL TAYLOR COLERIDGE WHAT QUESTIONS OCCUR TO YOU?
work/futurewatch/

2. OCTOBER 2009
THE MINISTRY OF RESEARCH, SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
P R E PA R E D F O R N E W Z E A L A N D G O V E R N M E N T A G E N C I E S B Y
Potential bottleneck or barrier
S CA N S U MMA RY Stimulating influence
S CI E N CE A N D TECH N OLOG Y
science and technologies implications with the patient.
Regulatory responses to new the genetic data and to discuss
required to help make sense of
doctors, counsellors, etc are
to provide adequate safeguards. Appropriately trained researchers,
discourage innovation and/or fail
with developments can
Regulations that fail to keep up trained workforce
Having a suitably
Faster, cheaper computing
applications.
sequencing of DNA appropriately regulate clinical
Cheaper and quicker thinking about how to
over the internet is stimulating
Ready access to genomics data
of the data
and lifestyle decisions Making sense
inform health, diet
Use of genetics to
Systems biology
and effects.
better understanding of causes Levels of obesity
biological data can lead to a
Linking genetics with other information and services
Internet-enabled access to
Changing behaviours
information has little effect.
lifestyle may mean that the genetic
and behaviours to health, diet and
Reluctance to change attitudes
THAN JUST TREAT SICKNESS?
USED MORE EFFECTIVELY TO PREVENT RATHER
THAT ENABLE (OR INHIBIT) GENETICS TO BE
EXAMPLE WHAT WILL BE IMPORTANT FACTORS
AN EXAMPLE OF HOW TO USE THE
F U T U R E W A T C H
F U T U R E W A T C H
MoRST 2009 Science and Technology Scan Summary Some underlying drivers of change in New Zealand
SOCIAL F OR EC A ST F OR N EW Z EA L A N D : F E WE R B A BIE S , M ORE W RIN K LI ES
WHAT IS This poster provides an overview of the trends and scanning observations made during
45
THIS POSTER? 2008 and 2009 by MoRST’s science and technology scanning network. Observations are Forecast
40
derived from a variety of sources – published scientific papers, reports from governments
PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION
35
or other organisations, media reports, conferences, and blogs. Many of the observations
0-14 yrs
are based on developments occurring elsewhere, but may have significant implications 30
15-39 yrs
for New Zealand. More detailed assessments of some of the trends can be found on 25
40-64 yrs
MoRST’s website, along with links to other futures’ related material – 20
65-84 yrs
www.morst.govt.nz/current-work/futurewatch/ 15
85+ yrs
10
The observations are divided into four categories – science & technology, economic,
5
social, and environment (ie the natural world). This is a simplification (due to space
0
constraints) of the traditional PESTLE (political, environmental, social, technological, legal 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061
and economic) framing of futures work. Some of the observations encompass more
than one of these categories and observations related to politics or the law may be C ON S EQ U EN C ES F OR H EA LTH EX PEN D I TU R E
placed in one of the other spheres depending on the issue. Some major global drivers
of change and trends that underlie some of the observations are identified to the left
of the main diagram. Examples of some important New Zealand drivers and trends are
shown on the next page.
Observations are subjectively characterised as: Ages 65+ 40% Ages 65+ 51% Ages 65+ 63%
I Rapid increase – a trend or development that is progressing rapidly Ages 15-64 + 48% Ages 15-64 + 41% Ages 15-64 + 31%
(such as significant progress over the past year) Ages 0-14 + 12% Ages 0-14 + 8% Ages 0-14 + 6%
I Gradual increase – a trend or development that is growing at a slower
20 0 2 2 026 20 5 1
but steady rate NZ HEALTH BILL: $7.7 BILLION $14.3 BILLION? $25.7 BILLION?
I Decreasing – signifying a decline or an absence of recent progress Source: Ministry of Health (2004). Population ageing and health expenditure:
New Zealand 2002–2051.
I Bottlenecks – factors with the potential to inhibit developments or applications
I Uncertainty – issues where at the moment it is not clear how they may change
ECONOMIC N EW Z EA L A N D ’S D E CL IN IN G PR O D U CT IV I TY
and/or influence other elements
100
I Changing – noting that the identified issue is currently experiencing a change
90
in state rather than a change in pace
GDP PER HOUR WORKED
80
(AS PERCENT OF USA)
The diagram does not provide a comprehensive overview of all major scientific developments 70
Australia
and trends. It only reflects observations that members of the scanning network have Finland
60 New Zealand
provided over the last year, based on their areas of expertise and interest. MoRST intends
50
to update the poster annually.
40
HOW TO USE IT This poster is intended to stimulate thinking about future implications for New Zealand
30
of scientific trends and developments. The main diagram does not indicate what will
or is likely to occur, or provide a timeframe. Instead we are using it to illustrate that
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
science and technologies do not develop linearly, but are influenced by, and influence,
Source: OECD
a range of other contextual factors (ethical, cultural, political, economic, etc).
The diagram encourages consideration of the policy implications for New Zealand of E N V I R O N M E N TA L C H A LL EN G E: RE D U CIN G G R EEN H O U SE G A S E M I SSI O N S
scientific and technological developments, particularly in relation to five main areas – 18
GREENHOUSE GAS ABSOLUTE CHANGE
health, food & agriculture, the environment, industrial development, and security & 16
RELATIVE TO 1990 (MEGA TONNES)
14
defence. Illustrative questions to prompt thinking about implications for New Zealand Total Emissions
12 Energy
are included around the edge of the diagram. Feel free to write your own questions.
10 Agricultural
8 Industrial Processes
NAVIGATING While some observations are clustered in the area where they are directly relevant Waste
6
THE POSTER (eg health, or food & agriculture) many of the observations can be relevant to more than 4
one area (such as changing behaviours and regulatory responses). On the back of the 2
poster is an example of one way in which some of the information can be used to 0
consider how different elements may influence each other. -2
DISCLAIMER Comments and views included on this poster do not necessarily represent the views 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
of the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology or the New Zealand government. Source: Ministry for the Environment (2007). Environment New Zealand 2007
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