2. As noted in our first report, broadcast television ratings continue to decrease while pricing continues to
escalate which is why it is now more important than ever to deploy your brand dollars with more insight and
precision.
FORESIGHT, which we first debuted in June, is mediahub’s analytical tool that aggregates and assesses digital
chatter surrounding new television programs. This follow-up report further gauges subsequent volume and
sentiment behind the discussions, and will provide us with an additional window of how well shows will be
received at launch, and predicting their chance of success or failure. FORESIGHT is a comprehensive report
utilizing Internet debates, forums, discussion boards, blogs, Twitter, Facebook, Digg, Tumblr and news groups.
The results derived will not only provide a guide as to what shows to back, but will identify potential
opportunities for more innovative brand associations.
FORESIGHT reports for the new television season will be released in three intervals – this represents the
second iteration.
REPORT I: POST UPFRONT MOMENTUM REPORT
Timing: June
Content: Early Read, after May program announcements
REPORT II: FALL SEASON REPORT
Timing: August/Early September
Content: Identify breakouts and failures
REPORT III: MID SEASON REPLACEMENT REPORT
Timing: November/December
Content: Early read on January/Mid-Season replacements
2
3. Report timing is based on the volume of digital discussion. Overall, in the early part of this period (May/June),
there tended to be fewer people generating messages as show pilots are generally accessible only to a select
few (though the networks, being cognizant of online usage, released them early this year, resulting in a higher
level of chatter). This noise then declines in subsequent summer months following the announcements. As the
fall season promotions began to ramp up in late summer, and with more innovative multimedia promotional
support, an increase in the volume of messages created a spike in chatter, as expectations and anticipation
rise. As a result, we are thus able to better predict the success and failure of impending shows with greater
accuracy.
Three key peaks for online chatter drive report timing:
6000 REPORT II
5000
4000
3000 REPORT III
NEW FALL
SHOWS 2009 Digital Chatter
ANNOUNCED
2000 2010 Digital Chatter
REPORT I
1000
0
Data Period: 5/16/10-9/5/10
3
4. INITIAL FINDINGS
As in June, NBC is substantially ahead in terms of overall buzz. The
net’s investments in quality programming, accompanied by its
smart social media usage (its “Fan It” program, in tandem with
artful use of Facebook, Twitter, MySpace and FourSquare), and
promotional efforts, seem to have paid off, initially. Viewers have
been tuning in, and the early part of the fall TV season appears off
to a strong start. NBC showed that its investment in expensive
content is also bringing benefits - The Event is NBC's most
successful series launch (from a ratings standpoint) in three years.
CBS had a promising start for Hawaii Five-0 (which has been
dominating its time period), and Mike & Molly, despite modest
buzz, seems to have settled comfortably in its Monday time period,
after the infallible Two And A Half Men.
FOX ,again, has the least buzz, not surprising given its meager
introduction of three lackluster new fall shows, and limited
manipulation of its primetime schedule. Despite critical acclaim,
Lone Star debuted poorly, and is the first show to be cancelled this
fall, after just two airings. Drawing just 4.1 million viewers in its
Period: 5/16/10-9/5/10
premiere, the series' creator went on a campaign, blogging a
desperate plea for viewers to tune in. That clearly failed. House also Data Period: 5/16/10-9/5/10
kicked off to lower than expected ratings. And American Idol's new
judges are raising some serious eyebrows about the sustainability
of the series.
As previously mentioned in our last report, what is especially
impressive is the buzz generated by The CW with just two new
shows which are clearly resonating well with their core target of
young females.
4
5. most
DISCUSSED NEW SHOWS
least
DISCUSSED NEW SHOWS
NET SHOW % Buzz NET SHOW % Buzz
NBC The Event 17.9% FOX Raising Hope 2.0%
NBC Chase 13.3% ABC The Whole Truth 1.8%
CW Hellcats 8.0% NBC School Pride 1.7%
CW Nikita 7.9% ABC Body of Proof 1.5%
FOX Running Wilde 6.5% ABC Better Together 1.4%
NBC Outsourced 6.0% CBS $#*! My Dad Says 1.3%
NBC Undercovers 4.7% ABC Detroit 1-8-7 0.8%
ABC No Ordinary Family 4.2% ABC Secret Millionaire 0.6%
CBS Hawaii Five-0 3.8% CBS Mike & Molly 0.5%
ABC My Generation 3.2% NBC Law & Order: LA 0.4%
5
6. BUZZ CALCULATION
NBC has four shows in the Top Ten Most Discussed. As before, the network’s adventure-themed fall programming,
including The Event, Chase and Undercovers, seemed to resonate online. Love Bites, which previously ranked well,
has been yanked from the fall schedule due to behind-the-scenes complications. The show is being replaced with
The Apprentice on Thursdays, instead.
CW’s Nikita and Hellcats are still highly ranked. Both shows’ recent debuts
performed respectably, despite Hellcats less-than-glowing reviews, and the
former up against NBC’s Sunday Night Football. CW certainly seems to know its
audience, and programs well for them, accordingly.
CBS’s Hawaii Five-0 and ABC’s No Ordinary Family continued to generate some
discussion, despite the latter’s disastrous debut at San Diego Comic Con. Hawaii
Five-0’s debut, though well-rated, has been marred by complaints of violence,
and only time will tell if Five-0 will be K-O-ed. In the meantime, it appears to be
winning its time period, as we anticipated, based on initial buzz. Similarly, No
Ordinary Family is also faring well, ratings-wise. FOX’s well-received Raising Hope
was given the season’s first full order.
Plagued by continuous panning, CBS’s Twitter-originated show, $#*! My Dad
Says, appears to have nothing worthwhile to say, much like ABC’s Detroit 1-8-7
and NBC’s Law & Order: Los Angeles. Despite that, the latter shows have debuted
well, and this may be due to its older audiences not contributing much to digital
dialogue.
On a similar note, critical favorites may also not be the darlings of the viewing
public. One example has been FOX’s Lone Star (Sept 20th premiere). That the Fox
drama was cancelled is no surprise after its disastrous debut, and low favorable
online chatter. While the show’s pilot drew critical acclaim, and stood out from
the new pilots for being different compared to the increasing glut of procedurals.
But, sometimes, different may not be just good enough. Similarly, ABC’s My
Generation was not for this generation, and was also cancelled. 6
7. SENTIMENT
As previously noted, to best gauge success, we believe that the key dynamic is not just volume, but sentiment as
well. In many instances, sentiment may take precedence over volume, since it provides a positive, or negative,
indicator, of viewer receptiveness.
For example, ABC’s The Whole Truth and Secret Millionaire may not have generated the most digital
conversations, but combining both shows’ positive sentiment with their buzz, it is likely that they will be well-
received. Once again, the two CW new shows, Nikita and Hellcats, performed exceedingly well on both counts,
high buzz factor and positive sentiment, both of which were borne out in their premiere ratings.
As in our prior report, NBC’s The Event had the highest buzz, but somewhat mixed sentiment. The show is
probably one of the most widely anticipated new series of the current season. NBC ran countless promotional
spots, in addition to extensive social media support, intended to entice viewers to wonder precisely what the title
occurrence might be, and what it might mean.
Of course, big hype means big expectations, and it’s an open question whether any show can live up to them.
The ratings for The Event’s premiere were good, but not as strong as NBC might have hoped, with the show
finishing third in its time slot. That said, the premiere was NBC’s best non-Olympic performance in the time slot
since February 2, 2009, and it rose from a 3.5 rating with Adults 18-49 in the first half hour, to a 3.9 in the second
half hour.
Two shows notable for their negative numbers are ABC’s Detroit 1-8-7 with under 50% positive sentiment (and
limited buzz), and CBS’s $#*! My Dad Says, with under 5% positive sentiment (with nominally more buzz). Yet, in
its debut, Detroit 1-8-7 greatly improved the hour for ABC, despite airing opposite the second hour of CBS’s 2-hour
NCIS: Los Angeles season opener in the 10 o’clock hour. The series debut also stood as the 2nd-most-watched TV
show in the hour, outdrawing NBC’s time-period established Parenthood by 58% (9.3 million vs. 5.9 million).
What does this tell us? Perhaps that online chatter isn’t the final arbiter of a show’s success, but merely that of a
show’s most passionate supporters, or detractors – it is a compass, but not a sherpa.
7
8. 2010 Fall Shows – Positive Sentiment
100%
The Whole Truth
Secret Millionaire No Ordinary Family
School Pride The Event
90% Body of Proof
Better Together Chase
Hawaii 5-0 Hellcats
80%
Hellcats Nikita
LAW & ORDER: LA The Event
Undercovers Running Wilde
Mike & Molly
70% Outsourced
My Generation
Raising Hope Undercovers
Nikita Chase
60%
% Positive Sentiment
No Ordinary Family
Outsourced Hawaii 5-0
50% My Generation
Detroit 1-8-7 Raising Hope
Running Wilde The Whole Truth
40%
Body of Proof
School Pride
30%
Better Together
$#*! My Dad Says
20%
Detroit 1-8-7
Mike & Molly
10% Lonestar
Secret Millionaire
LAW & ORDER: LA
$#*! My Dad Says
0% Lonestar
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% - - - Median
% Buzz
9. Most Discussed Fall 2010 Shows – Positive Sentiment
100%
90% No Ordinary Family
Hawaii 5-0
80%
Hellcats
The Event
Undercovers
70%
My Generation The Event
Running Wilde
Chase Chase
60%
% Positive Sentiment
Nikita
Hellcats
Outsourced Nikita
50%
Running Wilde
Outsourced
40% Undercovers
No Ordinary Family
30% Hawaii 5-0
My Generation
- - - Median
20%
10%
0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
% Buzz
10. Least Discussed Fall 2010 Shows
100%
School Pride The Whole Truth
Secret Millionaire
90%
Better Together
80%
Body of Proof
LAW & ORDER: LA
Mike & Molly
70%
Raising Hope
Raising Hope
The Whole Truth
60%
% Positive Sentiment
Body of Proof
School Pride
50%
Better Together
Detroit 1-8-7
$#*! My Dad Says
40% Detroit 1-8-7
Mike & Molly
30% Secret Millionaire
LAW & ORDER: LA
- - - Median
20%
10%
$#*! My Dad Says
0%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%
% Buzz
11. RECAP
At this point in time, the following may be surmised:
No Surprises:
As we prognosticated, NBC’s investment and commitment to new scripted fare have helped them rebound, pushing
them to the number two slot against favored CBS. Although some of their freshman series lived up to their pre-
launch buzz, the network is seeing the sampling subside quicker than they’d like to, so they are not out of the woods
yet. Their leading new series, The Event, is doing decently, but it will be interesting to see how long the network will
fund an expensive series that may not be pulling the mass audience they need. No one is surprised that CBS - the
most stable of all networks - would be in first place, nor were we surprised that the much anticipated launch of
Hawaii Five-0 delivered on its promise.
CW hums along with their two new freshman series fitting nicely into their lineup, helping to maintain their
stability. Conversely, the lack of pre-launch buzz was a definite sign that Fox was in for a rough fall launch. After two
dismal airings Lone Star was pulled, leaving two other new series on the potential cutting block: The Good Guys and
Running Wilde. The only thing saving these two series is the lack of alternatives to slot in. Similarly ABC had already
pulled My Generation, and have three new series in jeopardy: Whole Truth, Detroit 1-8-7 and Better With You.
A Few Surprises:
We were surprised that No Ordinary Family did not score more pre-launch buzz than it did, but equally surprised it
has done relatively decently two weeks into the new season in its Tuesday 8PM time slot against FOX’s Glee and
NBC’s Biggest Loser. That’s good news for ABC, which is seeing its other freshman series failing, and many of its other
series losing staying power. The other surprise for us was two of the CBS freshman series that lacked either pre-
launch buzz, or generated negative buzz, are actually holding their own. Granted it helps to be on the number one
network, and in advantageous time slots with strong lead-ins, so there is certainly a sampling advantage, but we still
wonder how long #$^ My Dad Says and Mike & Molly can hang in there.
Please note that the above report is but an indication of interest and not a prediction of the long-term success. Other factors, like how much promotional support each
network places behind each show; in what time period it is allocated; the shows it is up against; lead-ins, lead-outs; and quality of script play key roles.
11
12. FALL 2010 SEASON MOST RECENT WEEK’S RATINGS RECAP
For your convenient reference:
12
