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JRF
7,2                                  Determinants of dividend payout
                                             ratios in Ghana
                                                           Mohammed Amidu and Joshua Abor
136                                                   University of Ghana Business School, Legon, Ghana

                                     Abstract
                                     Purpose – This study seeks to examine the determinants of dividend payout ratios of listed
                                     companies in Ghana.
                                     Design/methodology/approach – The analyses are performed using data derived from the
                                     financial statements of firms listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange during a six-year period. Ordinary
                                     Least Squares model is used to estimate the regression equation. Institutional holding is used as a
                                     proxy for agency cost. Growth in sales and market-to-book value are also used as proxies for
                                     investment opportunities.
                                     Findings – The results show positive relationships between dividend payout ratios and profitability,
                                     cash flow, and tax. The results also show negative associations between dividend payout and risk,
                                     institutional holding, growth and market-to-book value. However, the significant variables in the
                                     results are profitability, cash flow, sale growth and market-to-book value.
                                     Originality/value – The main value of this study is the identification of the factors that influence the
                                     dividend payout policy decisions of listed firms in Ghana.
                                     Keywords Dividends, Determinants, Finance and accounting, Ghana
                                     Paper type Case study

                                     Introduction
                                     Successful companies earn income. This income can be invested in operating assets,
                                     used to acquire securities, used to retire debt, or distributed to shareholders. The
                                     income distributed to shareholders is the dividend. Issues that arise if a company
                                     decides to distribute its income to shareholders include the proportion to which such
                                     income would be distributed to shareholders; whether the distribution should be as
                                     cash dividends, or the cash be passed on to shareholders by buying back some shares;
                                     and how stable the distribution should be. Much controversy surrounds dividends
                                     policy. Black (1976) observed that “the harder we look at the dividends picture, the
                                     more it seems like a puzzle, with pieces that just do not fit together”. Since then, the
                                     amount of theoretical and empirical research on dividend policy has increased
                                     dramatically (Baker, 1999).
                                        Many reasons exist why companies should pay or not to pay dividends. Yet
                                     figuring out why companies pay dividends and investors pay attention to dividend-
                                     that is the “dividend puzzle” is still problematic. Bernstein (1996), and Aivazian and
                                     Booth (2003) revisited the dividend puzzle and noted that some important questions
                                     remained unanswered. Thus setting corporate dividend policy remains controversial
                                     and involves judgment by decision makers. There has been emerging consensus that
                                     there is no single explanation of dividends. According to Brook et al. (1998) there is no
The Journal of Risk Finance          reason to believe that corporate dividend policy is driven by a single goal.
Vol. 7 No. 2, 2006
pp. 136-145
q Emerald Group Publishing Limited
1526-5943
                                     The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the University of Ghana Business School for
DOI 10.1108/15265940610648580        funding this research.
Previous empirical studies have focused mainly on developed economies. This               Dividend payout
study examines the relationship between determinants of dividend payout ratios from           ratios in Ghana
the context of a developing country. The study looks at the issue from a developing
country perspective by focusing specifically on firms listed on the Ghana Stock
Exchange (GSE). This study defines the dividend payout ratio as the percentage of
profits paid as dividend. It uses the percentage of institutional holdings of a firm’s
common stock as a proxy for agency cost. Growth in sales and market-to-book value                       137
are also used as proxies for future prospects and investment opportunities. Other
variables include profitability, risk, cash flow, and corporate tax. The results show
statistically significant and positive relationships between dividend payout and
profitability, cash flow and tax. The results also indicate negative associations between
dividend payout and risk, institutional holding, growth and market value but it shows
insignificant relationships in the case of risk and institutional holding.
   The rest of the article is organized as follows. The next section gives a review of the
extant literature on the subject. Section three discusses the methodology. Section four
presents and discusses the results of the empirical analysis. Finally, section five
concludes the discussion.

Theoretical overview
The theoretical principles underlying the dividend policy of firms can be described
either in terms of information asymmetries, the tax-adjusted theory, or behavioral
factors. The information asymmetries encompass several aspects, including the
signaling models, agency cost, and the free cash flow hypothesis. Akerlof (1970)
defines signaling effect as a unique and specific signaling equilibrium in which a job
seeker signals his/her quality to a prospective employer. Though the scenario
developed is used in labor market, researchers have used it in financial decisions. The
signaling theories suggest that corporate dividend policy used as a means of putting
quality message across has a lower cost than other alternatives. This means that the
use of dividends as signals implies that alternatives methods of signaling are not
perfect substitutes (see Bhattacharya, 1980; Talmor, 1981; Miller and Rock, 1985;
Asquith and Mullins, 1986; Ofer and Thakor, 1987; Rodriguez, 1992).
   Agency theory seeks to explain corporate capital structure as a result of attempts to
minimize the cost associated with the separation of ownership and control. Agency
costs are lower in firms with high managerial ownership stakes because of better
alignment of shareholder and managerial control (Jensen and Meckling, 1976) and also
in firms with large block shareholders that are better able to monitor managerial
activities (Shleifer and Vishney, 1986). A potential wealth transfer from bondholders to
stockholders is another agency issue associated with information asymmetries. The
potential shareholders and bondholders conflict can be mitigated by covenants
governing claim priority. According to Fama and Jensen (1983) the conflict can be
circumvented by large dividend payment to stockholders. Debt covenants to minimize
dividend payments are necessary to prevent bondholder wealth transfers to
shareholders (John and Kalay, 1982). Another way dividend policy affects agency
costs is the reduction of agency cost through increased monitoring by capital market.
   With free cash flow hypothesis, Jensen (1986) asserts that funds remaining after
financing all positive net present value projects cause conflicts of interest between
managers and shareholders. Dividends and debt interest payment decrease the free
JRF   cash flow available to managers to invest in marginal net present value projects and
7,2   manager perquisite consumption.
          Tax-adjusted models presume that investors require and secure higher expected
      returns on shares of dividend-paying stocks. The consequence of tax-adjusted theory is
      the division of investors into dividend tax clientele. Modigliani (1982) argues that the
      clientele effect is responsible for the alterations in portfolio composition. On their part,
138   Masulis and Trueman (1988) model predicts that investors with differing tax liabilities
      will not be uniform in their ideal firm dividend policy. They conclude that as tax
      liability increases (decreases), the dividend payment decreases (increases) while
      earnings reinvestment increases (decreases). Tax-adjusted model also assumes that
      investors maximize after-tax income. According to Farrar and Selwyn (1967), in a
      partial equilibrium framework, individual investors choose the amount of personal and
      corporate leverage and also whether to receive corporate distributions as dividends or
      capital gain. Auerbach (1979) develops a discrete-time, infinite-horizon model in which
      shareholders maximize their wealth. Auerbach explains that if a capital gain or
      dividend tax differential exists, wealth maximization no longer implies firm market
      value maximization.
          The tax-adjusted theory has been criticized in that it is not compatible with rational
      behavior. Dividend payouts could be viewed as the socioeconomic repercussion of
      corporate evolution. Frankfurter and Lane (1992) reveal that the information
      asymmetries between managers and shareholders cause dividends to be paid to
      increase the attractiveness of equity issues. According to Michel (1979), the systematic
      relation between industry type and dividend policy implies that managers are
      influenced by the actions of executives from competitive firms when determining
      dividend payout levels. Managers may increase or pay dividends to appease investors
      if they realized that shareholders desire for dividends. Frankfurter and Lane (1992)
      maintain that dividends payments are partially a tradition and partially a method to
      dispel investor anxiety. The payments of dividends to shareholders should serve as a
      reminder of the managerial and owner relationship and would therefore help in
      increasing the stability of the company.


      Empirical literature
      The extant literature on dividend payout ratios provides firms with no generally
      accepted prescription for the level of dividend payment that will maximize share value.
      Black (1976) in his study concluded with this question: “What should the corporation
      do about dividend policy? We don’t know.” It has been argued that dividend policy has
      no effect on either the price of a firm’s share or its cost of capital. If dividend policy has
      no significant effects, then it would be irrelevant. Miller and Modigliani (1961) argued
      that the firm’s value is determined only by its basic earning power and its business
      risk. A number of factors have been identified in previous empirical studies to
      influence the dividend payout ratios of firms including profitability, risk, cash flow,
      agency cost, and growth (see Higgins, 1981; Rozeff, 1982; Lloyd et al., 1985; Pruitt and
      Gitman, 1991; Jensen et al., 1992; Alli et al., 1993; Collins et al., 1996; D’Souza, 1999).
         Profits have long been regarded as the primary indicator of a firm’s capacity to pay
      dividends. Pruitt and Gitman (1991), in their study report that, current and past years’
      profits are important factors in influencing dividend payments. Baker et al. (1985) also
find that a major determinant of dividend payment was the anticipated level of future             Dividend payout
earnings.                                                                                         ratios in Ghana
   Pruitt and Gitman (1991) find that risk (year-to-year variability of earnings) also
determines firms’ dividend policy. A firm that has relatively stable earnings is often
able to predict approximately what its future earnings will be. Such a firm is therefore
more likely to pay out a higher percentage of its earnings than a firm with fluctuating
earnings. In other studies, Rozeff (1982), Lloyd et al. (1985), and Collins et al. (1996) used              139
beta value of a firm as an indicator of its market risk. They found statistically
significant and negative relationship between beta and the dividend payout. Their
findings suggest that firms having a higher level of market risk will pay out dividends
at lower rate. D’Souza (1999) also finds statistically significant and negative
relationship between beta and dividend payout.
   The liquidity or cash-flow position is also an important determinant of dividend
payouts. A poor liquidity position means less generous dividend due to shortage of
cash. Alli et al. (1993) reveal that dividend payments depend more on cash flows, which
reflect the company’s ability to pay dividends, than on current earnings, which are less
heavily influenced by accounting practices. They claim current earnings do not really
reflect the firm’s ability to pay dividends.
   Jensen and Meckling (1976) advanced the agency theory to explain the dividend
relevance. They show that agency costs arise if management serves its own interests
and not those of outside shareholders. Rozeff (1982), Easterbrook (1984), and Collins
et al. (1996) also extended the theory by providing the agency-cost explanation of
dividend policy, which is based on the observation that firms pay dividend and raise
capital simultaneously. Easterbrook (1984) argues that increasing dividends raises the
probability that additional capital will have to be raised externally on a periodic basis
and consequently, the firm will be subject to constant monitoring by experts and
outside suppliers in the capital market. Monitoring by outside suppliers of capital also
helps to ensure that managers act in the best interest of outside shareholders. Thus
dividend payments may serve as a means of monitoring or bonding management
performance. Rozeff (1982) presents evidence that dividend payout level is negatively
related to its level of insider holdings. Jensen et al. (1992) and Collins et al. (1996)
confirm that the relationship between dividend payout and insider holding is
negatively related. D’Souza (1999) however found statistically significant and negative
relationship between institutional shareholding and dividend payout.
   Green et al. (1993) questioned the irrelevance argument and investigated the
relationship between the dividends and investment and financing decisions. Their
study showed that dividend payout levels are not totally decided after a firm’s
investment and financing decisions have been made. Dividend decision is taken along
investment and financing decisions. Their results however, do not support the views of
Miller and Modigliani (1961). Partington (1983) revealed that firms’ use of target
payout ratios, firms motives for paying dividends, and extent to which dividends are
determined are independent of investment policy. Higgins (1981) indicates a direct link
between growth and financing needs: rapidly growing firms have external financing
needs because working capital needs normally exceed the incremental cash flows from
new sales. Higgins (1972) shows that payout ratio is negatively related to a firm’s need
for funds to finance growth opportunities. Rozeff (1982), Lloyd et al. (1985), and Collins
et al. (1996) all show a significantly negative relationship between historical sales
JRF   growth and dividend payout. D’Souza (1999) however shows a positive but
7,2   insignificant relationship in the case of growth and negative but insignificant
      relationship in the case of market-to-book value.

      Data and empirical methods
      This study examines the determinants of dividend payout ratios of listed firms in
140   Ghana. A sample of firms that have been listed on the GSE during the recent six-year
      period 1998-2003 was considered. In all, 22 firms qualified for this study. This number
      represents 76 percent of listed firms in Ghana. We limited the sample to the twenty
      firms because they have been listed during the period under investigation and also
      have financial information for that period. Data was derived from the annual reports of
      the selected listed firms and the GSE Fact Books during the six-year period, 1998-2003.
      The dividend payout ratio, which is the dependent variable, is defined as the dividend
      per share divided by earnings per share. The explanatory variables include
      profitability (PROF), risk (RISK), cash flow (CASH), corporate tax (TAX), institutional
      holdings (INSH), sales growth (GROW), and market-to-book value (MTBV).
         The panel character of the data allows for the use of panel data methodology. Panel
      data involves the pooling of observations on a cross-section of units over several time
      periods and provides results that are simply not detectable in pure cross-sections or
      pure time-series studies. The panel regression equation differs from a regular
      time-series or cross section regression by the double subscript attached to each
      variable. The general form of the panel data model can be specified more compactly as:
                                       Y i;t ¼ ai þ bX i;t þ ‘i;t                            ð1Þ
      with the subscript i denoting the cross-sectional dimension and t representing the
      time-series dimension. In this equation, Y i;t represents the dependent variable in the
      model, which is the firm’s dividend payout ratio; X i;t contains the set of explanatory
      variables in the estimation model; and ai is taken to be constant over time t and specific
      to the individual cross-sectional unit i. If ai is taken to be the same across units, then
      Ordinary Least Square (OLS) provides a consistent and efficient estimate of a and b.
         The model for this study follows the one used by D’Souza (1999) to explain the
      relationships between dividend payout ratios and the determinants. This takes the
      form:

               PAYOUT i;t ¼ b0 þ b1 PROF i;t þ b2 RISK i;t þ b3 CASH i;t þ b4 TAX i;t

                              þ b5 INSH i;t þ b6 GROW i;t þ b7 MTBV i;t þ ‘i;t ;             ð2Þ

      where:
         PAYOUT i;t ¼ dividend per share/earnings per share for firm i in period t,
         PROF i;t       ¼ earnings before interest and taxes/total assets for firm i in period t,
         RISK i;t       ¼ variability in profit for firm i in period t,
         CASH i;t       ¼ log of net cash flow for firm i in period t,
         TAX i;t        ¼ corporate tax divided by net profit before tax for firm i in period t,
INSH i;t      ¼ percentage of institutional holdings of equity stock for firm i in       Dividend payout
                   period t,                                                                ratios in Ghana
   GROW i;t      ¼ growth in sales for firm i in period t,
   MTBV i;t      ¼ market-to-book value for firm i in period t, and
   ‘i;t          ¼ the error term for firm i in period t.
                                                                                                             141
In the light of the above theoretical and empirical discussions, the following
hypothesized relationships are predicted for each variable with respect to the dividend
payout ratio:
   .
     PROF , CASH , and INSH are expected to be positively related toPAYOUT;
   .
     RISK, TAX, GROW , and MTBV should be negatively related to PAYOUT.

Empirical results
Summary statistics
Table I presents the descriptive statistics for all the regression variables. This shows
the average indicators of variables computed from the financial statements. The
average (median) dividend payout ratio (measured as dividend per share/ earnings per
share) is 30.16 percent (32.92 percent) and the average (median) profitability is 11.54
percent (10.01 percent). This means, on the average, firms pay about 30 percent of their
profits as dividends and the average return on assets stands at 11.54 percent. Average
(median) risk is 0.9750 (0.6934). Cash flow, determined as the natural logarithm of cash
balance has a mean (median) of 22.1322 (22.12). Corporate tax rate on average is 21.9
percent (22.93 percent). Average (median) percentage of institutional holdings is 71.8
percent (81.89 percent), suggesting that 71.8 percent of the companies’ shares are own
by institutional shareholders. The average (median) growth rate in sales is 35.15
percent (25.61 percent) and the average (median) market-to-book value for the firms is
19.6304 (5.1250).

Regression results
The regression is run in a panel manner. Various options of panel data regression were
run, fixed effects, random effects and OLS panel. The most robust of all was the OLS
panel, thus we report results of the OLS panel regression in Table II. The dividend
payout ratio is regressed against the seven explanatory variables. These variables
include profitability, risk, cash flow, tax, institutional ownership, growth, and
market-to-book value. The results indicate a statistically significant and positive

                 Mean          Std. Dev.       Minimum          Median         Maximum

PAYOUT           0.3016          0.2564          0.0000          0.3292          0.8278
PROF             0.1154          0.0987         20.1025          0.1001          0.3684
RISK             0.9750          2.5948         27.1908          0.6934         10.8525
CASH            22.1322          2.8705         15.2018         22.1200         26.8072
TAX              0.2190          0.1558          0.0000          0.2293          0.5794                    Table I.
INSH             0.7180          0.3127          0.0000          0.8189          0.9655     Descriptive statistics of
GROW             0.3515          0.3167         20.1978          0.2561          1.2003              dependent and
MTBV            19.6304         43.5779          0.0000          5.1250        208.0060      independent variables
JRF
                           Variable                       Coefficient                t-statistic              Prob.
7,2
                           PROF                             1.2731                   10.4752                 0.0000
                           RISK                            20.0003                  2 0.0314                 0.9751
                           CASH                             0.0373                   17.5111                 0.0000
                           TAX                              0.1482                    2.9760                 0.0044
142                        INSH                            20.0498                  2 0.7167                 0.4768
                           GROW                            20.0683                  2 2.0073                 0.0499
                           MTBV                            20.0011                  2 5.7759                 0.0000
                           R-squared                        0.9224
                           SE of regression                 0.2013
Table II.                  F-statistic                     88.25587
Regression model results   Prob. (F-statistic)              0.0000


                           relationship between profitability and the dividend payout ratio. This is explained by
                           the fact that, highly profitable firms tend to declare and pay high dividend. Thus, they
                           would have exhibited high payout ratios. A firm’s profitability is considered an
                           important factor in influencing dividend payment. This result clearly supports our
                           hypothesis of a positive relationship. The results also appear to be consistent with the
                           findings of other empirical studies (see Baker et al., 1985; Pruitt and Gitman, 1991).
                               The results of this study show a negative but insignificant association between risk
                           and dividend payout ratios, suggesting that, high-risk firms pay lower dividends to
                           their shareholders. Firms experiencing earning volatility find it difficult to pay
                           dividend, such firms would therefore pay less or no dividend. On the other hand, firms
                           with relatively stable earnings are often able to predict approximately what its future
                           earnings will be and therefore are more likely to pay out a higher percentage of its
                           earnings as dividend.
                               As expected, the results indicate a significantly positive relationship between cash
                           flow and dividend payout ratios. The liquidity or cash-flow position is an important
                           determinant of the dividend payout ratio. The results of this study suggest that, a good
                           liquidity position increases a firm’s ability to pay dividend. Generally, firms with good
                           and stable cash flows are able to pay dividend easily compared with firms with
                           unstable cash-flow position.
                               Contrary to our hypothesis, the results of this study surprisingly show a positive
                           relationship between corporate tax and dividend payout ratios, indicating that,
                           increasing tax is associated with increase in dividend payout. This position seems to
                           also contradict existing literature.
                               The results also reveal a negative but insignificant association between
                           institutional shareholding and dividend payout ratios. This means the higher the
                           percentage of institutional holding the lower the dividend payout ratio. A possible
                           explanation is that firms pay dividend in order to avoid the cost associated with
                           agency relationship.
                               Growth in sales and market-to-book values are used as proxies for the firm’s future
                           prospects and investment opportunities. Both variables were found to have
                           statistically significant and negative associations with dividend payout ratios. This
                           is indicative of the fact that, growing firms require more funds in order to finance their
                           growth and therefore would typically retain greater proportion of their earnings by
paying low dividend. Also, firms with higher market-to-book value tend to have good                    Dividend payout
investment opportunities, and thus would retain more funds and record lower dividend                   ratios in Ghana
payout ratios. These results are also consistent with the results of previous studies (see
Rozeff, 1982; Lloyd et al., 1985; Collins et al., 1996) and also support the hypotheses of
negative associations for both sales growth and market value.

Conclusions
                                                                                                                 143
This study examines the determinants of dividend payout ratios of listed companies in
Ghana. The analyses are performed using data derived from the financial statements of
firms listed on the GSE during a six-year period. Ordinary Least Squares model is used
to estimate the regression equation. The results show positive relationships between
dividend payout and profitability, cash flow, and tax. The results suggest that,
profitable firms tend to pay high dividend. A good liquidity position increases a firm’s
ability to pay dividend. The results also show negative associations between dividend
payout and risk, institutional shareholding, growth and market-to-book value. Firms
experiencing earning volatility find it difficult to pay dividend, such firms would
therefore pay less or no dividend. The higher the institutional holding the lower the
dividend payout ratio, meaning firms pay dividends in order to reduce the cost
associated with agency problems. The results again suggest that, growing firms
require more funds in order to finance their growth and therefore would typically
retain greater proportion of their earnings by paying low dividend. Also, firms with
higher market-to-book value tend to have good investment opportunities and would
therefore pay lower dividends. The results of this study generally support previous
empirical studies. The implication of this article is that dividend payout policy decision
of Ghanaian listed firms is influenced by the profitability, cash-flow position, growth
prospects, and investment opportunities of the firms.
   Following from these findings, it would be useful to also consider the following
directions for future research:
   .
       What determines the decision to pay or not to pay dividends in listed firms?
   .
       What determines dividend payout ratios of unquoted firms in Ghana?
   .
       What determines dividend policy decisions of unquoted companies in Ghana?

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Determinants of[1]

  • 1. The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available at www.emeraldinsight.com/1526-5943.htm JRF 7,2 Determinants of dividend payout ratios in Ghana Mohammed Amidu and Joshua Abor 136 University of Ghana Business School, Legon, Ghana Abstract Purpose – This study seeks to examine the determinants of dividend payout ratios of listed companies in Ghana. Design/methodology/approach – The analyses are performed using data derived from the financial statements of firms listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange during a six-year period. Ordinary Least Squares model is used to estimate the regression equation. Institutional holding is used as a proxy for agency cost. Growth in sales and market-to-book value are also used as proxies for investment opportunities. Findings – The results show positive relationships between dividend payout ratios and profitability, cash flow, and tax. The results also show negative associations between dividend payout and risk, institutional holding, growth and market-to-book value. However, the significant variables in the results are profitability, cash flow, sale growth and market-to-book value. Originality/value – The main value of this study is the identification of the factors that influence the dividend payout policy decisions of listed firms in Ghana. Keywords Dividends, Determinants, Finance and accounting, Ghana Paper type Case study Introduction Successful companies earn income. This income can be invested in operating assets, used to acquire securities, used to retire debt, or distributed to shareholders. The income distributed to shareholders is the dividend. Issues that arise if a company decides to distribute its income to shareholders include the proportion to which such income would be distributed to shareholders; whether the distribution should be as cash dividends, or the cash be passed on to shareholders by buying back some shares; and how stable the distribution should be. Much controversy surrounds dividends policy. Black (1976) observed that “the harder we look at the dividends picture, the more it seems like a puzzle, with pieces that just do not fit together”. Since then, the amount of theoretical and empirical research on dividend policy has increased dramatically (Baker, 1999). Many reasons exist why companies should pay or not to pay dividends. Yet figuring out why companies pay dividends and investors pay attention to dividend- that is the “dividend puzzle” is still problematic. Bernstein (1996), and Aivazian and Booth (2003) revisited the dividend puzzle and noted that some important questions remained unanswered. Thus setting corporate dividend policy remains controversial and involves judgment by decision makers. There has been emerging consensus that there is no single explanation of dividends. According to Brook et al. (1998) there is no The Journal of Risk Finance reason to believe that corporate dividend policy is driven by a single goal. Vol. 7 No. 2, 2006 pp. 136-145 q Emerald Group Publishing Limited 1526-5943 The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the University of Ghana Business School for DOI 10.1108/15265940610648580 funding this research.
  • 2. Previous empirical studies have focused mainly on developed economies. This Dividend payout study examines the relationship between determinants of dividend payout ratios from ratios in Ghana the context of a developing country. The study looks at the issue from a developing country perspective by focusing specifically on firms listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE). This study defines the dividend payout ratio as the percentage of profits paid as dividend. It uses the percentage of institutional holdings of a firm’s common stock as a proxy for agency cost. Growth in sales and market-to-book value 137 are also used as proxies for future prospects and investment opportunities. Other variables include profitability, risk, cash flow, and corporate tax. The results show statistically significant and positive relationships between dividend payout and profitability, cash flow and tax. The results also indicate negative associations between dividend payout and risk, institutional holding, growth and market value but it shows insignificant relationships in the case of risk and institutional holding. The rest of the article is organized as follows. The next section gives a review of the extant literature on the subject. Section three discusses the methodology. Section four presents and discusses the results of the empirical analysis. Finally, section five concludes the discussion. Theoretical overview The theoretical principles underlying the dividend policy of firms can be described either in terms of information asymmetries, the tax-adjusted theory, or behavioral factors. The information asymmetries encompass several aspects, including the signaling models, agency cost, and the free cash flow hypothesis. Akerlof (1970) defines signaling effect as a unique and specific signaling equilibrium in which a job seeker signals his/her quality to a prospective employer. Though the scenario developed is used in labor market, researchers have used it in financial decisions. The signaling theories suggest that corporate dividend policy used as a means of putting quality message across has a lower cost than other alternatives. This means that the use of dividends as signals implies that alternatives methods of signaling are not perfect substitutes (see Bhattacharya, 1980; Talmor, 1981; Miller and Rock, 1985; Asquith and Mullins, 1986; Ofer and Thakor, 1987; Rodriguez, 1992). Agency theory seeks to explain corporate capital structure as a result of attempts to minimize the cost associated with the separation of ownership and control. Agency costs are lower in firms with high managerial ownership stakes because of better alignment of shareholder and managerial control (Jensen and Meckling, 1976) and also in firms with large block shareholders that are better able to monitor managerial activities (Shleifer and Vishney, 1986). A potential wealth transfer from bondholders to stockholders is another agency issue associated with information asymmetries. The potential shareholders and bondholders conflict can be mitigated by covenants governing claim priority. According to Fama and Jensen (1983) the conflict can be circumvented by large dividend payment to stockholders. Debt covenants to minimize dividend payments are necessary to prevent bondholder wealth transfers to shareholders (John and Kalay, 1982). Another way dividend policy affects agency costs is the reduction of agency cost through increased monitoring by capital market. With free cash flow hypothesis, Jensen (1986) asserts that funds remaining after financing all positive net present value projects cause conflicts of interest between managers and shareholders. Dividends and debt interest payment decrease the free
  • 3. JRF cash flow available to managers to invest in marginal net present value projects and 7,2 manager perquisite consumption. Tax-adjusted models presume that investors require and secure higher expected returns on shares of dividend-paying stocks. The consequence of tax-adjusted theory is the division of investors into dividend tax clientele. Modigliani (1982) argues that the clientele effect is responsible for the alterations in portfolio composition. On their part, 138 Masulis and Trueman (1988) model predicts that investors with differing tax liabilities will not be uniform in their ideal firm dividend policy. They conclude that as tax liability increases (decreases), the dividend payment decreases (increases) while earnings reinvestment increases (decreases). Tax-adjusted model also assumes that investors maximize after-tax income. According to Farrar and Selwyn (1967), in a partial equilibrium framework, individual investors choose the amount of personal and corporate leverage and also whether to receive corporate distributions as dividends or capital gain. Auerbach (1979) develops a discrete-time, infinite-horizon model in which shareholders maximize their wealth. Auerbach explains that if a capital gain or dividend tax differential exists, wealth maximization no longer implies firm market value maximization. The tax-adjusted theory has been criticized in that it is not compatible with rational behavior. Dividend payouts could be viewed as the socioeconomic repercussion of corporate evolution. Frankfurter and Lane (1992) reveal that the information asymmetries between managers and shareholders cause dividends to be paid to increase the attractiveness of equity issues. According to Michel (1979), the systematic relation between industry type and dividend policy implies that managers are influenced by the actions of executives from competitive firms when determining dividend payout levels. Managers may increase or pay dividends to appease investors if they realized that shareholders desire for dividends. Frankfurter and Lane (1992) maintain that dividends payments are partially a tradition and partially a method to dispel investor anxiety. The payments of dividends to shareholders should serve as a reminder of the managerial and owner relationship and would therefore help in increasing the stability of the company. Empirical literature The extant literature on dividend payout ratios provides firms with no generally accepted prescription for the level of dividend payment that will maximize share value. Black (1976) in his study concluded with this question: “What should the corporation do about dividend policy? We don’t know.” It has been argued that dividend policy has no effect on either the price of a firm’s share or its cost of capital. If dividend policy has no significant effects, then it would be irrelevant. Miller and Modigliani (1961) argued that the firm’s value is determined only by its basic earning power and its business risk. A number of factors have been identified in previous empirical studies to influence the dividend payout ratios of firms including profitability, risk, cash flow, agency cost, and growth (see Higgins, 1981; Rozeff, 1982; Lloyd et al., 1985; Pruitt and Gitman, 1991; Jensen et al., 1992; Alli et al., 1993; Collins et al., 1996; D’Souza, 1999). Profits have long been regarded as the primary indicator of a firm’s capacity to pay dividends. Pruitt and Gitman (1991), in their study report that, current and past years’ profits are important factors in influencing dividend payments. Baker et al. (1985) also
  • 4. find that a major determinant of dividend payment was the anticipated level of future Dividend payout earnings. ratios in Ghana Pruitt and Gitman (1991) find that risk (year-to-year variability of earnings) also determines firms’ dividend policy. A firm that has relatively stable earnings is often able to predict approximately what its future earnings will be. Such a firm is therefore more likely to pay out a higher percentage of its earnings than a firm with fluctuating earnings. In other studies, Rozeff (1982), Lloyd et al. (1985), and Collins et al. (1996) used 139 beta value of a firm as an indicator of its market risk. They found statistically significant and negative relationship between beta and the dividend payout. Their findings suggest that firms having a higher level of market risk will pay out dividends at lower rate. D’Souza (1999) also finds statistically significant and negative relationship between beta and dividend payout. The liquidity or cash-flow position is also an important determinant of dividend payouts. A poor liquidity position means less generous dividend due to shortage of cash. Alli et al. (1993) reveal that dividend payments depend more on cash flows, which reflect the company’s ability to pay dividends, than on current earnings, which are less heavily influenced by accounting practices. They claim current earnings do not really reflect the firm’s ability to pay dividends. Jensen and Meckling (1976) advanced the agency theory to explain the dividend relevance. They show that agency costs arise if management serves its own interests and not those of outside shareholders. Rozeff (1982), Easterbrook (1984), and Collins et al. (1996) also extended the theory by providing the agency-cost explanation of dividend policy, which is based on the observation that firms pay dividend and raise capital simultaneously. Easterbrook (1984) argues that increasing dividends raises the probability that additional capital will have to be raised externally on a periodic basis and consequently, the firm will be subject to constant monitoring by experts and outside suppliers in the capital market. Monitoring by outside suppliers of capital also helps to ensure that managers act in the best interest of outside shareholders. Thus dividend payments may serve as a means of monitoring or bonding management performance. Rozeff (1982) presents evidence that dividend payout level is negatively related to its level of insider holdings. Jensen et al. (1992) and Collins et al. (1996) confirm that the relationship between dividend payout and insider holding is negatively related. D’Souza (1999) however found statistically significant and negative relationship between institutional shareholding and dividend payout. Green et al. (1993) questioned the irrelevance argument and investigated the relationship between the dividends and investment and financing decisions. Their study showed that dividend payout levels are not totally decided after a firm’s investment and financing decisions have been made. Dividend decision is taken along investment and financing decisions. Their results however, do not support the views of Miller and Modigliani (1961). Partington (1983) revealed that firms’ use of target payout ratios, firms motives for paying dividends, and extent to which dividends are determined are independent of investment policy. Higgins (1981) indicates a direct link between growth and financing needs: rapidly growing firms have external financing needs because working capital needs normally exceed the incremental cash flows from new sales. Higgins (1972) shows that payout ratio is negatively related to a firm’s need for funds to finance growth opportunities. Rozeff (1982), Lloyd et al. (1985), and Collins et al. (1996) all show a significantly negative relationship between historical sales
  • 5. JRF growth and dividend payout. D’Souza (1999) however shows a positive but 7,2 insignificant relationship in the case of growth and negative but insignificant relationship in the case of market-to-book value. Data and empirical methods This study examines the determinants of dividend payout ratios of listed firms in 140 Ghana. A sample of firms that have been listed on the GSE during the recent six-year period 1998-2003 was considered. In all, 22 firms qualified for this study. This number represents 76 percent of listed firms in Ghana. We limited the sample to the twenty firms because they have been listed during the period under investigation and also have financial information for that period. Data was derived from the annual reports of the selected listed firms and the GSE Fact Books during the six-year period, 1998-2003. The dividend payout ratio, which is the dependent variable, is defined as the dividend per share divided by earnings per share. The explanatory variables include profitability (PROF), risk (RISK), cash flow (CASH), corporate tax (TAX), institutional holdings (INSH), sales growth (GROW), and market-to-book value (MTBV). The panel character of the data allows for the use of panel data methodology. Panel data involves the pooling of observations on a cross-section of units over several time periods and provides results that are simply not detectable in pure cross-sections or pure time-series studies. The panel regression equation differs from a regular time-series or cross section regression by the double subscript attached to each variable. The general form of the panel data model can be specified more compactly as: Y i;t ¼ ai þ bX i;t þ ‘i;t ð1Þ with the subscript i denoting the cross-sectional dimension and t representing the time-series dimension. In this equation, Y i;t represents the dependent variable in the model, which is the firm’s dividend payout ratio; X i;t contains the set of explanatory variables in the estimation model; and ai is taken to be constant over time t and specific to the individual cross-sectional unit i. If ai is taken to be the same across units, then Ordinary Least Square (OLS) provides a consistent and efficient estimate of a and b. The model for this study follows the one used by D’Souza (1999) to explain the relationships between dividend payout ratios and the determinants. This takes the form: PAYOUT i;t ¼ b0 þ b1 PROF i;t þ b2 RISK i;t þ b3 CASH i;t þ b4 TAX i;t þ b5 INSH i;t þ b6 GROW i;t þ b7 MTBV i;t þ ‘i;t ; ð2Þ where: PAYOUT i;t ¼ dividend per share/earnings per share for firm i in period t, PROF i;t ¼ earnings before interest and taxes/total assets for firm i in period t, RISK i;t ¼ variability in profit for firm i in period t, CASH i;t ¼ log of net cash flow for firm i in period t, TAX i;t ¼ corporate tax divided by net profit before tax for firm i in period t,
  • 6. INSH i;t ¼ percentage of institutional holdings of equity stock for firm i in Dividend payout period t, ratios in Ghana GROW i;t ¼ growth in sales for firm i in period t, MTBV i;t ¼ market-to-book value for firm i in period t, and ‘i;t ¼ the error term for firm i in period t. 141 In the light of the above theoretical and empirical discussions, the following hypothesized relationships are predicted for each variable with respect to the dividend payout ratio: . PROF , CASH , and INSH are expected to be positively related toPAYOUT; . RISK, TAX, GROW , and MTBV should be negatively related to PAYOUT. Empirical results Summary statistics Table I presents the descriptive statistics for all the regression variables. This shows the average indicators of variables computed from the financial statements. The average (median) dividend payout ratio (measured as dividend per share/ earnings per share) is 30.16 percent (32.92 percent) and the average (median) profitability is 11.54 percent (10.01 percent). This means, on the average, firms pay about 30 percent of their profits as dividends and the average return on assets stands at 11.54 percent. Average (median) risk is 0.9750 (0.6934). Cash flow, determined as the natural logarithm of cash balance has a mean (median) of 22.1322 (22.12). Corporate tax rate on average is 21.9 percent (22.93 percent). Average (median) percentage of institutional holdings is 71.8 percent (81.89 percent), suggesting that 71.8 percent of the companies’ shares are own by institutional shareholders. The average (median) growth rate in sales is 35.15 percent (25.61 percent) and the average (median) market-to-book value for the firms is 19.6304 (5.1250). Regression results The regression is run in a panel manner. Various options of panel data regression were run, fixed effects, random effects and OLS panel. The most robust of all was the OLS panel, thus we report results of the OLS panel regression in Table II. The dividend payout ratio is regressed against the seven explanatory variables. These variables include profitability, risk, cash flow, tax, institutional ownership, growth, and market-to-book value. The results indicate a statistically significant and positive Mean Std. Dev. Minimum Median Maximum PAYOUT 0.3016 0.2564 0.0000 0.3292 0.8278 PROF 0.1154 0.0987 20.1025 0.1001 0.3684 RISK 0.9750 2.5948 27.1908 0.6934 10.8525 CASH 22.1322 2.8705 15.2018 22.1200 26.8072 TAX 0.2190 0.1558 0.0000 0.2293 0.5794 Table I. INSH 0.7180 0.3127 0.0000 0.8189 0.9655 Descriptive statistics of GROW 0.3515 0.3167 20.1978 0.2561 1.2003 dependent and MTBV 19.6304 43.5779 0.0000 5.1250 208.0060 independent variables
  • 7. JRF Variable Coefficient t-statistic Prob. 7,2 PROF 1.2731 10.4752 0.0000 RISK 20.0003 2 0.0314 0.9751 CASH 0.0373 17.5111 0.0000 TAX 0.1482 2.9760 0.0044 142 INSH 20.0498 2 0.7167 0.4768 GROW 20.0683 2 2.0073 0.0499 MTBV 20.0011 2 5.7759 0.0000 R-squared 0.9224 SE of regression 0.2013 Table II. F-statistic 88.25587 Regression model results Prob. (F-statistic) 0.0000 relationship between profitability and the dividend payout ratio. This is explained by the fact that, highly profitable firms tend to declare and pay high dividend. Thus, they would have exhibited high payout ratios. A firm’s profitability is considered an important factor in influencing dividend payment. This result clearly supports our hypothesis of a positive relationship. The results also appear to be consistent with the findings of other empirical studies (see Baker et al., 1985; Pruitt and Gitman, 1991). The results of this study show a negative but insignificant association between risk and dividend payout ratios, suggesting that, high-risk firms pay lower dividends to their shareholders. Firms experiencing earning volatility find it difficult to pay dividend, such firms would therefore pay less or no dividend. On the other hand, firms with relatively stable earnings are often able to predict approximately what its future earnings will be and therefore are more likely to pay out a higher percentage of its earnings as dividend. As expected, the results indicate a significantly positive relationship between cash flow and dividend payout ratios. The liquidity or cash-flow position is an important determinant of the dividend payout ratio. The results of this study suggest that, a good liquidity position increases a firm’s ability to pay dividend. Generally, firms with good and stable cash flows are able to pay dividend easily compared with firms with unstable cash-flow position. Contrary to our hypothesis, the results of this study surprisingly show a positive relationship between corporate tax and dividend payout ratios, indicating that, increasing tax is associated with increase in dividend payout. This position seems to also contradict existing literature. The results also reveal a negative but insignificant association between institutional shareholding and dividend payout ratios. This means the higher the percentage of institutional holding the lower the dividend payout ratio. A possible explanation is that firms pay dividend in order to avoid the cost associated with agency relationship. Growth in sales and market-to-book values are used as proxies for the firm’s future prospects and investment opportunities. Both variables were found to have statistically significant and negative associations with dividend payout ratios. This is indicative of the fact that, growing firms require more funds in order to finance their growth and therefore would typically retain greater proportion of their earnings by
  • 8. paying low dividend. Also, firms with higher market-to-book value tend to have good Dividend payout investment opportunities, and thus would retain more funds and record lower dividend ratios in Ghana payout ratios. These results are also consistent with the results of previous studies (see Rozeff, 1982; Lloyd et al., 1985; Collins et al., 1996) and also support the hypotheses of negative associations for both sales growth and market value. Conclusions 143 This study examines the determinants of dividend payout ratios of listed companies in Ghana. The analyses are performed using data derived from the financial statements of firms listed on the GSE during a six-year period. Ordinary Least Squares model is used to estimate the regression equation. The results show positive relationships between dividend payout and profitability, cash flow, and tax. The results suggest that, profitable firms tend to pay high dividend. A good liquidity position increases a firm’s ability to pay dividend. The results also show negative associations between dividend payout and risk, institutional shareholding, growth and market-to-book value. Firms experiencing earning volatility find it difficult to pay dividend, such firms would therefore pay less or no dividend. The higher the institutional holding the lower the dividend payout ratio, meaning firms pay dividends in order to reduce the cost associated with agency problems. The results again suggest that, growing firms require more funds in order to finance their growth and therefore would typically retain greater proportion of their earnings by paying low dividend. Also, firms with higher market-to-book value tend to have good investment opportunities and would therefore pay lower dividends. The results of this study generally support previous empirical studies. The implication of this article is that dividend payout policy decision of Ghanaian listed firms is influenced by the profitability, cash-flow position, growth prospects, and investment opportunities of the firms. Following from these findings, it would be useful to also consider the following directions for future research: . What determines the decision to pay or not to pay dividends in listed firms? . What determines dividend payout ratios of unquoted firms in Ghana? . What determines dividend policy decisions of unquoted companies in Ghana? References Aivazian, V. and Booth, L. (2003), “Do emerging market firms follow different dividend policies from US firms?”, Journal of Financial Research, Vol. 26 No. 3, pp. 371-87. Akerlof, G. (1970), “The market for ‘lemons’: quality uncertainty and market mechanism”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 84, pp. 488-500. Alli, K., Khan, A. and Ramirez, G. (1993), “Determinants of dividend policy: a factorial analysis”, The Financial Review, Vol. 28 No. 4, pp. 523-47. Asquith, P. and Mullins, D.W. Jr (1986), “Signaling with dividends, stock repurchases, and equity issues”, Financial Management, Vol. 15, Autumn, pp. 27-44. Auerbach, A.J. (1979), “Wealth maximization and the cost of capital”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 93, pp. 433-46. Baker, H.K. (1999), “Dividend policy issues in regulated and unregulated firms: a managerial perspective”, Managerial Finance, Vol. 25 No. 6, pp. 1-19.
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