Totten presentation to ESource Annual Forum on energy efficiency - Portfolio Sensible 21st Century Market Transformation

1. A Climate Friendly Industrial Revolution
A Portfolio Sen$ible
21 st Century
Market Transformation
Michael P. Totten
Chief Advisor, Climate, Freshwater
Center for Environmental Leadership in Business
Conservation International
Presentation at the 21st Annual E Source Forum
September 25, 2008

2. Soon to
migrate to a
web-based
social
collaboration
value net
www.conservation.org/

3. Dedicated to
Shimon Awerbuch (1946-2007)
Utility Portfolio Theorist Par Excellent
Portfolio analysis is widely used by
financial investors to create robust
portfolios that produce efficient outcomes
under various economic conditions.
In essence, an efficient portfolio takes no
unnecessary risk relative to its expected
return.
Put another way, efficient portfolios are
defined by the following properties:
they maximize the expected return for any
given level of risk,
while minimizing risk for every given level
of expected return.

4. 21st century highly dynamic conditions and complex variables call
for Scenario planning and Portfolio managing.
G. Peterson et al., “Scenario Planning, a tool for conservation in an uncertain world,” Conservation Biology, V. 17:2, April 2003.

5. Highly Skewed Economic Growth
10-fold growth in world GDP 1950-2000
2.6-fold growth in world population 1950-2000

6. 7x 9x
/yr llion
or
% tri r1
2 0 r o llion
/y ri
$29 3% 0 t
~
~$ 86

7. More absolute poverty than any time in human history
Large percentages physically impaired & mentally stunted for life
And vast percentage chronically ill and premature mortality

8. 6th largest extinction – 1000 times the natural background rate

9. A Decade of Immense Financial Loss,
Human Tragedy & Time Squandered
Vulnerability of National Economic and Energy Security
Global Military spending increased 40% since 2000 - $1.2 trillion in 2007

10. NOW UNSAFE, UNSECURE, UNSUSTAINABLE
First documented in the 1980 Dept. of Defense funded report

11. 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines
Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere every 44 hours

12. Humanity’s Climate Footprint
1100 Within grandchild’s lifespan
Present atmospheric CO2
concentration not exceeded past
Your grandchildren’s lifespan 400,000 years, and likely not
during past 20 million years.
Your children’s lifespan
Your lifespan Global temperature rising 15 to
60 times faster than historical
Your parents lifespan
natural rate.
Oceans more acidic than past
800,000 years.
dioxide Today
carbon
methane
Past 400,000
years

13. Right-Sizing Humans’ CO2 Footprint
2006
now 29GtCO2
2050
reduce to
15 GtCO2
2100
reduce to
<5 GtCO2
Contraction & Convergence “ . . . the logical conclusion of a rights-
based approach.” IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000

14. Failure of Action Will Put
Hundreds of Millions at Risk
(Parry et al., 2001)

15. Lack Financial & Technical Infrastructure for Adaptation or Mitigation
Pose Increased National Security Risks & Conflicts from “Climate Refugees”

16. “It’s not hard to make the connection between climate
change and instability…We will pay for this one way or
another. We will pay to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions today, and we’ll have to take an economic hit
of some kind. Or, we will pay the price later in military
terms. And that will involve human lives. There will be a
human toll” General Anthony Zinni
Retired Gen. Anthony Zinni was
among 11 former generals and
“You have very real changes in natural systems that are
admirals on the military
most likely to happen in regions of the world that are
advisory board that examined
already fertile ground for extremism.” Admiral T.J. Lopez
the potential threats of climate
change to national security.
“the military and intelligence communities should be
April 2007
specifically tasked to aggressively find ways to make their
data, talent, and systems capabilities available to American
efforts in understanding climate change signals..”
http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/ Vice Admiral Paul Gaffney

17. U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses Growing
Faster than Premiums, Population, GDP
Source: Mills, Roth and Lecomte, 2005

18. $2.5 trillion
almost a quarter of
the US economy
is at risk from the large forest wildfires have tripled and area burned increased >5-fold since
weather the 1980s, burning 5x longer, and wildfire season has lengthened 2/3rd.

19. Top 10 Most Costly Hurricanes in US
History, (Insured Losses, $2005)
$45 Seven of the 10 most expensive $40.6
$40 hurricanes in US history
$35 occurred in the 14 months from
$30 Aug. 2004 – Oct. 2005:
$ Billions
$25 $21.6
Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Charley,
$20
Ivan, Frances & Jeanne
$15
$10.3
$10 $6.6 $7.4 $7.7
$3.8 $4.8 $5.0
$5 $3.5
$0
Georges Jeanne Frances Rita Hugo Ivan Charley Wilma Andrew Katrina
(1998) (2004) (2004) (2005) (1989) (2004) (2004) (2005) (1992) (2005)
Sources: ISO/PCS; Insurance Information Institute.

20. Top 11 Insured Property
Losses in US ($2005)
$45
Eight of the 11 most
$40.6
$40 expensive disasters is US
$35 history occurred since 2001
$30
$ Billions
$25 $20.7 $21.6
$20 $16.5
$15 $10.3
$10 $6.6 $7.4 $7.7
$3.8 $4.8 $5.0
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Note: 9/11 loss figure is for property claims only.
Sources: ISO/PCS; Insurance Information Institute.

22. Yet, Bias runs deep: Deny, Delay & Do Nothing
Senator James Inhofe (R-OK)
Evangelical James Dobson Rush Limbaugh CEO Lee Raymond

23. Including Much of Congress
National Journal 02-03-07

24. 75% of Americans Get Climate Change

25. Fiscally Prudent Insurance Need
People care a lot about unlikely “worst cases”
Airport security is all about worst case possibilities
Insurance is not based on average outcomes
The average (US) house has a fire every 250 years
(0.4% probability per year of a residential fire)
But most people have fire insurance
Probability of death next year is less than 1% until age 61;
(under 0.2% until 40, US data)
But most young parents have life insurance
Probability of enough warming to guarantee loss of
Greenland ice sheet is much greater than 1%
Fiscally prudent to buy insurance for the planet
Frank Ackerman, The economics of climate policy: Cost-benefit analysis or global insurance policy? European Parliament, 03-26-08, www.sei-us.org/more-news.html

26. A New Climate Economics
Uncertainty and catastrophic risk are decisive
Climate policy is insurance against low-probability (but not
impossible) catastrophic events
By comparison, the “most likely” outcome is irrelevant. Certainty
will not be achieved until it is too late
Climate catastrophes are now at least as likely as risks
(fire, death) we buy insurance against
Exact probabilities are unknown, but become more likely as the
climate changes
Cost-benefit analysis offers to guard against the risk of
spending “too much” on “favored options”
This is a very different (less urgent) problem
The real economic question: what is the least-cost way
to ensure that we prevent global catastrophe?
The economics of climate policy: Cost-benefit analysis or global insurance policy? Frank Ackerman, Tufts University and Stockholm Environment Institute-US
Center, presentation to the European Parliament, Brussels, March 26, 2008, http://www.sei-us.org/more-news.html

27. “The best way to predict your future is to create it!”
Abraham Lincoln

28. DOZEN CRITERIA
Desirable attributes of a Portfolio Energy system
1. Economically affordable including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?
2. Safe through the entire life cycle?
3. Clean through the entire lifespan?
4. Risk is low and manageable from financial and price volatility?
5. Resilient and flexible to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?
6. Ecologically sustainable no adverse impacts on biodiversity?
7. Environmentally benign maintains air, water, soil quality?
8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises?
9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures low recovery cost and lost time?
10. Endogenous learning capacity intrinsic new productivity opportunities?
11. Robust experience curve for reducing
negative externalities and amplifying
positive externalities scalable innovation possibilities?
12. Uninteresting target for malicious
disruption off the radar of terrorists, military planners?

29. Uninteresting military target
A Portfolio Sensible Robust experience curves
Energy Criteria Scoring Endogenous learning capacity
Rebounds easily from failures
Score Promote Fails gracefully, not catastroph
Environmentally benign
CHP + Ecologically sustainable
biowastes
Resilient & flexible
Secure
Clean
Safe
Economically Affordable
Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste Geo- Nat Bio- Oil Coal Coal Coal to Tar Oil nuclear
power thermal gas fuels imports CCS no liquids sand shale
CCS

30. Efficiency services
Immense pool
Highly cost-effective
Extraordinarily low risk
A myriad of benefits

31. No. 1, 2,3 Actions: Efficiency, Efficiency, and more Efficiency
Decoupling, Financial Alignment, Standards, Dynamic Pricing
The Art of Efficiency

32. Efficiency gains 1973-2005 Eliminated
75 ExaJoules of Energy Supply
$700 billion per year in energy bill savings
Envision 18 million coal railcars
that would wrap around the world
seven times each year.
Or, imagine 8,800 Exxon Valdez oil
supertanker shipments per year.
Only 2 nations consume > 75 EJ per year: USA and China.

33. McKinsey’s recent
assessment concluded
energy efficiency
improvements with a
10% or higher ROI could
provide half of all new
energy demand through
2030.
And IEA’s “Aggressive
Innovation” scenario
concluded efficiency
gains could provide 75%
of projected new energy
service demand through
2030.

34. Wedges Scenario for 21st Century CO2 Reductions
oil gas coal forests
oil gas coal
geothermal agriculture Assumes:
1% 2% 1% 5%
biomass1% 5%
10% 1) Global
economic
bldgs EE
growth 2-3%
15%
per year all
wind century long;
15%
2) sustaining
3% per year
efficiency
gains;
transport EE
15%
3) Combined
solar carbon cap &
15% carbon tax
industry EE
15%

35. CURRENT GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ~ 475 ExaJoules (15 TW-yrs)
BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TRAJECTORY 200 times this amount over 100 years –
113,000 EJ (3600 TW-yrs). Fossil fuels will account for 75% of this sum.
SMART ENERGY SERVICES (EFFICIENCY) can deliver 57,000 EJs (1800
TW-yrs). Save $50 trillion. Avoid several trillion tons CO2 emissions.
Envision eliminating the need for 13.8 billion coal railcars this century.
OR, Envision eliminating the need for 6,700 Chernobyl reactors.
OR, Envision eliminating the need for 13,800 Glen Canyon dams.
OR, Envision eliminating the need for 17 million LNG tanker shipments.

36. $50 billion/yr Global Savings Potential, 44 Gigaton CO2 Reduction
Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change
Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html

37. Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change
Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html

38. Green Buildings – ecologically
sustainable, economically superior,
higher occupant satisfaction
The Costs and
Financial Benefits
of Green Buildings,
Public library – North Carolina A Report to
California’s
Sustainable
Building Task
Force, Oct. 2003, by
Greg Kats et al.
$50 to $70 per
ft2 net present
value
Oberlin College
Heinz Foundation Ecology Center,
Green Building, PA Ohio

39. Biggest Efficiency Option of Them All:
Supplier Chain Factories & Products
Demand Facts Efficiency Outcomes
Industrial electric motor systems 2 trillion kWh per year savings –
consume 40% of electricity equal to 1/4th all coal plants to be
worldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in built through 2030 worldwide.
China – over 7 trillion kWh per
year. $240 billion savings per decade.
Retrofit savings of 30%, New $200 to $400 billion benefits per
savings of 50% -- @ 1 ¢/kWh. decade in avoided emissions of
GHGs, SO2 and NOx.
Support SEEEM (Standards SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive
for Energy Efficiency of market transformation strategy to promote efficient
Electric Motor Systems) industrial electric motor systems worldwide

40. Less Large Power Plants & Mines
More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs”
Less Coal Power Plants
Less Coal Rail Cars
Less Coal Mines

41. SEIZING THE 4 E’S
EFFICIENCY OF ENERGY, WATER, RESOURCES AND LAND USE
President Hu Jintao repeatedly calls for China to
build a great “resource-conserving, water-
conscious, and innovating society.”
Premier Wen Jiabao continually emphasizes
China's development depends on scientific
knowledge, technological progress and President Hu Jintao
innovation, with a top priority on energy, water
and resource conservation and environmental
protection.
The 11th 5 Year Plan is unprecedented in giving
highest priority to pursuing the 4E’s over the
traditional fixation on resource expansion.
Premier Wen Jiabao

42. Avoided Emissions & Savings
per China EPP
Each 300 MW Conventional Coal Power Plant (CPP)
Eliminated by an equivalent Efficiency Power Plant (EPP)
(1.8 billion kWh per year)
Eliminates 6,000 to 8,000 railroad car shipments of coal delivered each year
Avoids burning 600,000 to 800,000 tons coal
Avoids emitting 5,400 tons SO2
Avoids emitting 5,400 tons NOx
Avoids emitting 2 million tons CO2
Avoids significant quantities of toxic mercury, cadmium, arsenic, and other heavy
metals
Avoids Waste generation of 70,000 tons/year of sludge
Saves 45 billion gallons waters
Accrues $67.5 million annual savings
Avoids Externalized cost from pollutants between $50 million & $360 million per year
And EPPs generates several times more jobs per $ of investment
[1]
Estimated at between 2.7 to 20 cents per kWh by the European Commission, Directorate-General XII, Science, Research and
Development, JOULE, ExternE: Externalities of Energy, Methodology Report, 1998, www.externe.info/reportex/vol2.pdf
T T

43. $10 CFL 6-pak Purchase Value
$300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
Investment lst year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year
[source: SafeClimate.net]
6-pak CFLs Dow -Jones Average Bank Account

44. Wal-Mart Surpasses Goal To sell 100 million compact
fluorescent light bulbs Three Months Early
CEO Lee Scott

45. On Climate Change Action
“We are looking at innovative ways to
reduce our GHG emissions.
This used to be controversial, but the
science is in and it is overwhelming.
Lee Scott
21st Century Leadership
Presentation Nov. 24, 2005
“We believe every company has a responsibility to reduce GHG as
quickly as it can. Wal-Mart can help restore balance to climate
systems, reduce greenhouse gases, save money for our customers,
and reduce dependence on oil.”

46. On Climate Change Action
We are committed to the following:
1. Aggressively investing approximately $500 million annually in technologies and
innovation to do the following:
o Reducing GHG at our existing store, club and DC base around the world by 20 percent w/in 7 years.
o Designing and opening a viable prototype that is 25-30 percent more efficient and will produce up to 30
percent fewer greenhouse gas emissions within the next 4 years.
o Increasing fleet efficiency by 25% in the next 3 years, and doubling efficiency in the next 10 years.
o Sharing all learnings in technology with the world, including our competitors (the more people who
can utilize this type of technology the larger the market and more we can save our customers)
2. Aggressively pursuing regulatory and policy change that will create incentives for utilities to invest in
energy efficiency and low or no greenhouse gas sources of electricity, and to reduce barriers to
integrating these sources into the power grid.
3. Assisting in the design and support of a green company program in China, where Wal-Mart would show
preference to those suppliers and their factories involved in such a program.
4. Initiating a program here in the U.S. over the next 18 months that would show preference to suppliers who
set their own goals and aggressively reduce their own emissions.
These commitments are a first step. To address climate change we need to cut emissions worldwide. We
know that these commitments won’t even maintain our fast growing company’s overall emissions at current
levels. There is more to do and we are committed to doing our part.

47. • $1 billion per year
commitment
• Supply chain energy efficiency
• Wireless embedded sensor
applications
• Energy Efficiency Certificates
• Green Servers and Data
Centers
• Intelligent Utility Networks -
Smart Grids
• Carbon management
• Advanced Water Management
• Solar electric technology
• Computational modeling
• Project finance for Data
Centers (both IBM and non-
IBM components)
• Integrated mass transit
information systems

49. MeshNetics and ZigBee Slash Industrial Facility’s Energy Bill By 37%
A wireless network with a web server oversees the facility’s energy usage.
Every 10 minutes, all values collected by the ZigBee modules are sent to the web
server, which in turn channels the values over the internet to a database.
Each time the web server connects to the database, changed values are read and
sent back to the local ZigBee-based controllers.

51. Global Total Wireless Sensor Network Building Control Units by Protocol 2007-2011
WSN is both driving and benefiting
from Web centric technologies and
traditional building controls.
• BACnet® industry group is working
with the ZigBee Alliance to make
protocols interoperable
• IP based building controls through
service oriented architectures and
Web services are gaining traction
through organizations such as
oBIX
• IETF’s 6LoWPAN working group is
focused on IP based wireless
sensing and control devices to
facilitate new Internet based web
services
ON World, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) for Smart Buildings, June 2007, www.onworld.com/

52. Public Policies

54. State Energy Efficiency Resource Standard (EERS)
A market-based performance standard
Implementing a proposed national EERS would commit every state to utilizing this
least-cost resource and establish a baseline level of cost-effective and achievable
energy savings. Retail electricity and natural gas distributors must achieve a
particular percentage of energy savings relative to forecasted energy sales.
ACEEE, Energy Efficiency Resource Standard (EERS) forRetail Electricity & Natural Gas Distributors, Sept. 2008,
http://aceee.org/energy/national/eers0908.htm

56. Rich Cowart, Architecture & Policy of Cap&Trade: Power Sector Issues, NARUC Conference on Climate Change & Utility Regulation,07-23-08, www.rap-online.org/

57. Rich Cowart, Power System Carbon Caps: Portfolio-based Carbon Management”, NREL Carbon Analysis Forum, 11-07, www.rap-online.org/ citing:

58. Rich Cowart, Architecture & Policy of Cap&Trade: Power Sector Issues, NARUC Conference on Climate Change & Utility Regulation,07-23-08, www.rap-online.org/

59. Rich Cowart, Architecture & Policy of Cap&Trade: Power Sector Issues, NARUC Conference on Climate Change & Utility Regulation,07-23-08, www.rap-online.org/

60. Current Public R&D Priorities Do Not Represent
Customer-focused, Retail-driven Solutions
Status Quo Retail-driven Scenario
USA Energy expenditures 1975-2000 2007-2030
• Lower energy
costs
$8 trillion DOE • Lower price
Environmental/
health
losses price
$325 budget volatility
volatlity
externalities
$10+ trillion billion • Lower
2/3 Environmental
Dept of
efficiency & Health
$25 trillion Energy
solar, wind
energy costs externalities
Military/ biofuels
Security • Lower military
externalities 4% for all & security
$10+ trillion
efficiency & 5%
externalities
all renewables
Priorities Outcomes Priorities Outcomes
Oil industry High energy costs Consumers • Shift of capital from utility
Utility industry Volatile Prices Retailers sector to retail sector
Coal industry Security vulnerability Suppliers • Greening supply chain out
Natural gas industry Higher pollution levels Manufacturers of avoided utility costs
Nuclear industry Long-term environmental Natural resource • Tax-free reductions in air &
Large Hydro industry damage sector water pollution

61. What a Retail-oriented R&D Strategy Can Do
Supporting long-term stable funding for basic and applied R&D of energy, water and resource
efficiency in the residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural sectors, plus combined heat
and power (CHP), solar photovoltaics, windpower, and cellulosic biofuels, ensures a
continuous pipeline of new production methods for commercializing higher performance, lower
cost and less polluting goods.
Supporting continuous updating of Technology Road Maps ensures identifying new trends and
emergent opportunities.

62. Ultra-Efficient System Opportunities

63. Vehicle-to-Grid
Convergences & Emergences

64. Vehicle-to-Grid PHEVs
Electric vehicles with onboard battery storage
and bi-directional power flows could stabilize
large-scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power
with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for
wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet providing operating
reserves or storage for wind.
Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J.
Power Sources, 144, 280-294.

65. Immense Implications of V-to-Grid
1. National vehicle fleet becomes a vast distribution
system of mobile batteries
2. Intermittent solar and wind energy sources
become economically attractive because plug-in
vehicles provide battery storage
3. Vehicles can recharge batteries using lower cost
off-peak power
4. Vehicles can also provide “spinning reserve” in
case of load loss, earning income on parked
“asset”
5. Dramatic reductions in oil dependency
6. Significant reductions in total power plant capacity
needs

66. Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary
PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity
ENERGY POTENTIAL
U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel
84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million), or
73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million vehicles) for a daily drive of 33
miles on average
ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL
A shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion
gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million
barrels per day).
OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL
~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings
AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle)
27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx,
40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx
nationwide (from higher coal generation).
Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and
Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.

67. Utility payment for
accessing battery
when PHEV parked

68. &
form Green Superpower Alliance
Google already announced that it wants the U.S.
to use 100 percent alternative energy by 2030.
Now Google & GE plan to 1) focus on
developing and investing in green energy
technologies; and 2) lobbying US political
leaders to support alternative.
“Both companies believe that our economic,
environmental and security challenges require
that we use electricity more efficiently, generate
it from cleaner sources, and electrify our
transportation fleet.
This 21st century electricity system must
combine advanced energy technology -- a major
GE focus -- and cutting edge information
technology -- a major Google focus.”

69. EPRI, GM, 34 UTILITIES COLLABORATE
TO ADVANCE PLUG-IN HYBRID
ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Group Aims to Accelerate Grid Integration
and Deployment

70. Marine Corps Commandant General P.X. Kelly (rtd)
Electrify transport for National Security
“The recent conflict between
Georgia and Russia has once
again highlighted the profound
danger that oil dependence
poses to free nations, including
the United States. Our nation's
deep reliance on oil, largely
imported from unstable and, in
some cases, hostile regimes is
corrosive to the integrity and
effectiveness of American
security policy. The
electrification of transportation
represents a major
Members of the Energy Security Leadership Council - retired US transformation of our energy
Marine Corps General P.X. Kelley, retired US Navy Admiral Gregory equation.” General P.X. Kelly,
Johnson, retired US Air Force General Charles Wald, President and Sept. 12, 2008
CEO of FedEx Corporation Fred Smith and Vice Chairman of Goldman
Sachs Robert Hormats, hold a news conference to discuss the dangers
of the United States' oil dependence

71. Doubling
efficiency vehicle
fleet at average
cost $15 per barrel
www.oilendgame.org/ 2004

72. Developing Countries

73. More absolute poverty than any time in human history
Large percentages physically impaired & mentally stunted for life
And vast percentage chronically ill and premature morbidity

75. by Jose Goldemberg, Amulya Reddy,
Thomas Johannson, Robert Williams

76. End-use-oriented global energy strategy
Showed nearly 30 years ago how economically attractive
energy technology was available to provide people
worldwide with the level of well-being experienced by
modern Europeans in the 1970s, on just 1 KW of energy
supply.
For comparison, the U.S. average is 10kW, OECD
countries range between 4 and 7 kW, the world average
is about 2.5 kW.
At the time they published the book, the average energy
consumption in developing countries was 1 kW. But it
was super-inefficient, as well as highly polluting and
sickness causing.
Goldemberg, Reddy, Williams & Johannson, Energy Strategy for Sustainable Development, Wiley-India

77. Brightening up life
Micro-utility service
provider Mr. Umor, who
owns a grocery shop. He
bought a PV system with 6
lamps.
One lights his shop, and
he rents the other 5 to
nearby shops, increasing
income by $12.50/month,
paying for entire
investment in 40 months.

78. CFL factories displace powerplants
The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million
CFLs per year. Over life of factory these CFLs will
produce lighting services sufficient to displace several
billion dollars of fossil-fired power plant investments
used to power less efficient incandescent lamps.
source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991]

79. Clean, Safe Water
UV Waterworks uses ultraviolet light to
quickly, safely, and cheaply disinfect
water of the viruses and bacteria that
cause cholera, typhoid, dysentery, and
other deadly diseases.
UV Waterworks can be powered by a
car battery or a 60-watt solar cell, is
about the size of a microwave oven,
and weighs about 15 pounds.
It can disinfect water at the rate of four
gallons per minute, for about five cents
for every thousand gallons.

80. China
growth in
Green
LEED-
certified
Buildings
Century Prosper Center green building Beijing Shanghai Skyway Oasis Hotel LEED-certified
Silo City Beijing LEED green building Harbin Municipal LEED green building Hangzhou Xihu Tiandi retail LEED Platinum

81. Daylighting could displace 100s GWs
Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights,
consume half of a commercial building
electricity.
Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time
lighting, eliminating massive amount of power
plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in
avoided costs.
Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.

82. High-E Windows displacing pipelines
Full use of high performance windows in the
U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan
pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as
well as accrue over $15 billion per year of
savings on energy bills.

83. Immense Distributed Energy Potential
Recent assessments indicate China could pursue 100 percent high-efficiency decentralized
energy (DE) systems through 2021 at a superior financial return than central station
investments. Retail and capital cost savings could reach $400 billion by 2021.
At no extra cost, new emissions of CO2 would drop 56%, avoiding 400 megatons of CO2
emissions per year, and declines in NOx and SOx emissions by 90 %.
But these results are possible only if China adopts key innovative policies enabling a
dramatically faster rate of implementation than the current annual CHP addition of 3 GW. Some
100 GW of CHP could be online by 2010 if a number of important power sector reforms occur.
LeSang Green Mall in Harbin Hushan Green Apartments in Shenzhen

84. RURAL HEALTH OPPORTUNITIES
Brick house construction is still widely used in many
rural areas. Brick factories occupy 1 million acres of Rural China High-Efficiency Strawbale Green buildings
land, destroys 150,000 acres of arable land every year,
and consumes 100 million tons of coal per year.
The inefficient brick homes consume high levels of coal
for heating & cooking, with high pollution levels causing
chronic health problems, hundreds of thousands of
premature deaths, and reduce crop yields.

85. Constructing commercial buildings to be solar
passive, active and electric ready
Newport Coast Elementary School
Computer tools such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD) help designers
in making more effective decisions when using passive solar design.

86. Solar-Ready Building turns this:
Wes Kennedy, VP

87. …..into This!
Wes Kennedy, VP

88. Constructing commercial
buildings to be solar
passive, active and
electric ready
Rooftop PV array on
Bayonne, NJ high school

89. What Supply After
Efficiency?

90. USA Renewable Electricity Growth – [R]evolution Scenario
EFFICIENCY TOTAL
Released Jan 2007 (3,400 TWh – not shown)
(33 TWh)
(366 TWh)
(285 TWh)
(114 TWh)
(1,220 TWh)
(341 TWh)
(510 TWh)
Source: European Renewable Energy Council & Greenpeace, Energy [R]evolution,, 01-07,
RENEWABLE TOTAL
www.greenpeace.org/usa/press/reports (2,868 TWh)

91. Food, Fuel, Species
Tradeoffs?
By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha
of land may be required for
agriculture.
Combined with the 800 million ha of
additional land needed for medium
growth bioenergy scenarios, threatens
intact ecosystems and biodiversity-
rich habitats.

92. Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles?
Solar-w/storage
Wind turbines
ground footprint
Wind-w/storage
turbine spacing
Cellulosic ethanol
Corn ethanol
Wind & Solar experts
Solar-storage and Wind-storage refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable
resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles, CAES or other storage technologies
WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND
NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,
2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

93. Web Calculator-Visualizer for emissions reductions
from biofuels, wind-batteries, solar-batteries
Mark Jacobson, Stanford

95. 95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains

96. US Population Concentration
28 coastal states use 78% of the electricity
MASH-UPS W/ MYRIAD INTERACTIVE WEB
CALCULATORS & VISUALIZERS SHOWING RE2 (e.g.,
WIND FARMS, PV panels, efficiency) TO MEET
POPULATION CENTER ENERGY DEMANDS

97. $68 billion for transmission expansion

98. 95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains
Figures of Merit
Great Plains area
1,200,000 mi2
Provide 100% U.S. electricity
400,000 2MW wind turbines
Platform footprint
6 mi2
Large Wyoming Strip Mine
>6 mi2
Total Wind spacing area
37,500 mi2
Still available for farming
and prairie restoration
90%+ (34,000 mi2)
CO2 U.S. electricity sector
40%

99. Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double
farm/ranch income with 30x less land area
Although agriculture controls about
70% of Great Plains land area, it
contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross
Regional Product.
Wind farms could enable one of the
greatest economic booms in
American history for Great Plains
rural communities, while also
enabling one of world’s largest
restorations of native prairie
ecosystems
How?
The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota,
South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains
= Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

100. Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of
Rural Farm and Ranch Income
US Farm Revenues per hectare
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy
non-wind farm
Wind profits
windpower farm
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm non-wind farm
govt. subsidy $0 $60
windpower royalty $200 $0
farm commodity revenues $50 $64
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/

101. The Great Plains’ huge wind resource, combined with wind farms’ small footprints and
excellent GIS mapping tools, can enable siting that minimizes ecological damage
1. Unsuitable – lands where
development is prohibited
(Appalachian Trail corridors,
for example) or quot;high
conflictquot; areas
2. Less than ideal – federal or
state conservation lands Wyoming wind power potential South Dakota wind power
rated quot;medium conflictquot; is 750 billion kWh/yr – 20% of potential is 1 trillion kWh/yr –
current U.S. total electricity 30% of current U.S. total
consumption. electricity consumption.
3. Conditionally favorable –
Conservation or open space
lands rated quot;low conflict,quot; or
open space or private lands Kansas (right) wind power
rated quot;medium conflictquot;: potential is 1 trillion kWh/yr –
30% of current U.S. total
4. Most favorable – electricity consumption.
Unrestricted private land and
quot;low conflictquot; areas

102. Potential Synergisms
Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:
1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil
carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from
selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);
2) Re-introducing free-
ranging bison into these
prairie grasslands --
which naturally co-
evolved together for
millennia -- generating a
potential revenue stream
from marketing high-
value organic, free-range
beef.
Also More Resilient
to Climate-triggered
Droughts

103. Marine Area for Wind Turbines to
Provide 50% of U.S. Energy
Wind resources offshore
are some of the best in the
world, and could provide
half the nation’s total
energy needs from a
relatively small area
Spacing
between
turbines
Professor Willett Kempton,
Univ. of Delaware
WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – INCREASING OFFSHORE WIND
FARMS DECREASING EMISSIONS, OIL IMPORTS, COAL PLANTS
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,
2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

105. In the USA, cities and residences cover 140 million acres.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met
simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on
roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of
buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios.
Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of
new land to make PV our primary energy source!

106. Solar PV satisfying 90% of total
US electricity from brownfields
90% of America’s current electricity
could be supplied with PV systems
built in the “brown-fields”— the
estimated 5 million acres of
abandoned industrial sites that
exist in our nation’s cities.
Cleaning Up
Brownfield
Sites w/
PV solar
Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;

107. 30 million acres of 10% eff. PV systems could supply
US total energy needs – fuels and electricity

108. Electricity Potential from BIPV
Stefan Nowak, The IEA PVPS Programme – into the second decade of International Co-operation Results and Challenges, www.iea.org/

109. Economics of Commercial BIPV
Reference costs of facade-cladding materials
Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:
Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/

110. Economics of Commercial BIPV
Net Present Values, Benefit-Cost Ratios and
Payback Periods for ‘Architectural’ BIPV (Thin Film,
Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai
(assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)
Material Economic
Beijing Shanghai
Replaced Measure
NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237
Polished BCR 2.33 2.14
Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1
NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024
BCR 1.89 1.70
Aluminum
PBP (yrs) 2 2
SunSlate Building-Integrated
Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial
building in Switzerland Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of
Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]

111. 2007 system price

113. Wind Water Use 99% less than Needed for
Fossil or Nuclear Energy Production
Water Consumption (liters per MWh)
2500 Solar photovoltaic & wind
power systems use between
2000 200 and 500 times less water
to generate electricity than
1500 fossil and nuclear systems
1000
500
0
Wind turbine Solar-electric combined coal-fired nuclear
cycle

114. Vehicle-to-Grid
Convergences & Emergences
Ubiquitous Communication

115. Clay Shirkey’s Cognitive Surplus
http://calacanis.com/2008/04/30/clay-shirky-cognitive-surplus-talk-at-web-2-0/
Large-scale distributed work-force projects are
impractical in theory, but doable in reality.
The Internet-connected population worldwide
watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year.
www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/lo
oking-for-the-mouse.html
One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per
year worth of peer participation.

116. The WIKIPEDIA MODEL:
In 6 years and with only 6 employees,
Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than
the Encyclopedia Britannica,
Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 70,000 volunteer
editors and content authors,
Translating content into 140+ languages, and
Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.

117. • General purpose tool for gathering
and distributing knowledge swiftly
• Process not product, never finished
• Error-correcting process leads to
better articles, on average, over time
• Every web page latent community
able to be enhanced and grown with
conversation, sharing, plug-ins
• Cumulated insights with annotated
changes

118. ENJOY THE RIDE

119. DE-CARBONIZED
FOSSIL FUELS?

120. CCS overall cost journey - reference case
Mature commercial phase $44-$66
(2030+)
Early commercial phase $51-$74
(2020+)
Demonstration phase
$88-$132
(2015)
$- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
$ cost of CO2 abatement
McKinsey & Co., Carbon Capture and Storage, Assessing the Economics, Sept. 22, 2008

121. Geological storage (CCS) vs U.S. Fossil- fueled
Ecological storage (REDD) Electricity Carbon Offset
Carbon Mitigation Cost per ton CO2 cost nationally per year
$50
$45
$40 ~$60 billion
$35 3 ¢ per kWh
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
~$10 billion
$-
0.5 ¢ per kWh
CCS REDD

123. Research commissioned by the
Stern Review, indicates that the
direct yields from land converted
to farming, including proceeds
from the sale of timber, are
equivalent to less than $1 per
ton of CO2 in many areas
currently losing forest, and
usually well below $5 per ton.
Avoided Deforestation potentially offers one of the most cost-effective,
immediately available, and large-scale carbon mitigation and adaptation
options, second only to energy efficiency options.
For example: it will require $40 billion to capture and store
1 billion tons of CO2 from coal plants.
The same amount of money would prevent the release of 8 times
this amount of CO2 through avoided deforestation.

127. NUCLEAR
POWER?
The fascination with nuclear power is due to the fact
that 1 ton of uranium can displace 20,000 tons of coal

128. Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

129. How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing
one dollar to make or save delivered electricity
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

130. Operating CO2 emitted per delivered kWh
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

131. Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar spent on electrical services
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org