GreenATP ucla anderson business school mp totten 06 11

GreenATP
Green Applications & Tipping Points
Presentation at the
UCLA Anderson School of Business
by
Michael P. Totten
Chief Advisor, Green Economies
Conservation International
June 09-10, 2011

WHY?
Collapsing
Mass
Ecosystems
Poverty Mass
Climate Extinction
disasters

Unprecedented
Challenges of
Historical & Global
Magnitude

More absolute poor than any time

Mass poverty
in human history – 1 out of 4
[alongside more extreme wealth than ever]

Unending
Resource
Wars &
Conflicts

Species extinction by humans
1000x natural background rate

extinction
Species
Extinctions
Human population

Past planetary mass extinctions

Catastrophes
triggered by high CO2 >550ppm
Where we will be by 2100 900ppm

Climate
Parts per Million CO2

TODAY: 387PPM

55 million years since oceans as acidic –
business-as-usual emissions growth
threaten collapse of marine life food web

Acidifying
Oceans
Global Circulation Models (GCM)

Bernie et al. 2010. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification, GRL

Negative Tipping Points

Source: Timothy M. Lenton¤y , Hermann Held , Elmar Kriegler , Jim W. Hall , Wolfgang
Lucht , Stefan Rahmstorf and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, 2007. Tipping elements in
the Earth's climate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA,
www.pnas.org/.

Unintended Geo-engineering Consequences

A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere,
and accumulate over geological time spans of tens of thousands
of years, raising the lurid, but real threat of extinction of
humanity and most life on earth.

human
12 to 16
billion

extinction?

70,000 years
ago humans
down to 2000

2100 ????

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading
… a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining
the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed:

"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with
the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities,
and significant costs involved in countering
terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or
neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly
harboring weapons of mass destruction
Martin Weitzman

…A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change
environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends
approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost
of a clean environment."
MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL
Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.

Where the world needs to go:
energy-related CO2 emissions per capita

???
Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.
Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.

$1,000 trillion GWP
2 TO 3% Annual Average ~$100,000 per cap
Gross World Product # in poverty?
century growth rate
(~10 to 20x today’s)

$500 trillion GWP
~$50,000 per cap
# in poverty?

$50 trillion GWP
~$7,500 per cap
2+ billion in
poverty?

2005 2105 at 2% 2105 at 3%

GAIN Science, Technology, Engineering

GENETICS AUTOROBOTICS

INFORMATICS NANOTECH

While non-linear complex
adaptive systems pervade
existence, humans have a
strong propensity to think
and act as if life is linear,
uncertainty is controllable,
the future free of surprises,
and planning is predictable
and compartmentalized
into silos.

Normal distributions are
assumed, fat-tail futures
are ignored.

Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3
knowledge relationships of knowledge
Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames

Natural system

Technical system

Social system

Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too
differently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/

The adaptive cycle - a theory of the relationship of
transformation to resilience
Stored

Released

Variety Sameness

Source: Resilience Alliance, www.resalliance.org/

Cross-Scale Interactions – temporal & spatial

Source: Resilience Alliance, www.resalliance.org/

Can WE
Avert Multiple Catastrophes,
Avoid Irreversible Consequences,
and Make the Shift to
Healthy, Sustainable Economies?

OR, Getting to
Maybe

via Emergent Collaboration Networks

Greening Economies
Locally to Globally
A Need for GreenATP
Green Apps & Tipping Points

Harnessing the Busy Bees

Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10,

The Universe of human activity Green
in Green Apps & Tipping Points ATP

Green
ATP

GreenAPPs
User built
User driven

greening city economics 24/7
by bit s & wits

billions forming & swarming
knowledge, for well-being,
value, prosperity & posterity

Green
ATP

Green
ATP

User-built Public asset
Open source, Global access

More GreenerAPPs
collaboratively filtered

Greenest APPs via
ranking algorithms

HIERARCHICAL CLUSTERS

Source: Albert-Lázló Barabási & Eric Bonabeau, Scale-Free Networks, Scientific American, May 2003

Institutional level
A change in culture
A change in laws
A change in resource
distribution/availability

Organizational level
A change in strategies
A change in procedures
distribution/availability

Network/Group level
A change in conversation
A change in routine
commitment or influence
Individual level
A change in heart
A change of habits
A change of ambition

water energy

mobile knowbility
food

WHAT?
Buildings Mobility
Utilities Products

Finance
Regulation
HOW? Learning
Sharing

[EPPs]

Adopting Win-Win-Win PORTFOLIOS
Using portfolios of multiple-benefit actions to become
climate positive and revenue positive
Pervasive Information & Communication Technologies Key to Success
Ecosystem
Radical Energy Efficiency Ecological Green Power
Protection

Adopting Portfolios of Best Policies

1)RADICAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Pursue vigorous, rigorous & continuous
improvements that reap monetary savings, ancillary
benefits, & GHG reductions (same w/ water &
resources)

2)PROTECT THREATENED ECOSYSTEMS
Add conservation carbon offset options to portfolio
that deliver triple benefits (climate protection,
biodiversity preservation, and promotion of
community sustainable development)

3)ECOLOGICAL GREEN POWER/FUELS
Select only verifiable „green power/fuels‟ that are
climate- & biodiversity-friendly, accelerate not slow
poverty reduction, & avoid adverse impacts

Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption
becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.

Closing the Loop – Reducing Use of Virgin Resources &
Increasing Reuse of Waste Nutrients

E. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/

Cradle-to-Cradle is an innovative and sustainable industrial model that focuses on
design of products and a production cycle that strives to produce no waste or
pollutants at all stages of the lifecycle.
Source: Braungart and McDonough Cradle-to-Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things (2002)

Reducing a Product’s Environmental Footprint

Spider diagram is one way to show how a particular product’s environmental
effects or ―footprint‖ are reduced over time through incremental improvements in
sustainable design. This diagram shows the dimensions of the footprint in years
2009, 2025 and 2050.

Source: California Green Chemistry Initiative, Final Report, California EPA and Dept. Toxic Substances Control, December 2008

CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020

Breakdown by abatement type
• 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry/agriculture)
• 6 Gt energy efficiency
• 4 Gt low-carbon energy supply
Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the
incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is €55-80 billion per year between 2010–2020 for
developing countries and €40–50 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, or
about half the €215 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.

Need to Halt Deforestation & Ecosystem Destruction
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
Billion tons CO2 14 million hectares burned each
25 year emitting 5 to 8 billion tons
CO2 per year. More emissions
than world transport system of
20
cars, trucks, trains, planes, ships

15

10 US
GHG
5
levels
0
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.

Outsourcing CO2 reductions to become Climate Positive
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
Billion tons CO2 5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year
25 in mitigation services available in
poor nations, increasing their
revenues by billions of dollars
20
annually ; and saving better-off
nations billions of dollars.
15

10 US
GHG
5
levels
0
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.

Largest Corporate REDD Carbon Project to date

$4 million to protect the Tayna and
Kisimba-Ikobo Community Reserves in
eastern DRC and Alto Mayo conservation
area in Peru.
Will prevent more than 900,000 tons of
CO2 from being released into the
atmosphere.
Using Climate, Community & Biodiversity
Carbon Standards.

Geological storage (CCS) vs U.S. fossil Electricity CO2
Ecological storage (REDD) mitigation cost annually
Carbon Mitigation Cost (2.4 GtCO2 in 2007)
$ per ton CO2
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
$50
$45 ~$100 billion
$40 ~3 ¢ per kWh
$35
$30
$25 Reduced Emissions Deforestation
$20 & Degradation (REDD)
$15
$10
~$18 billion
$5
~0.5 ¢ per kWh
$- 0
CCS REDD
Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008

U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007 $7.50 per ton CO2
2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions 1/2 cent per kWh

$18 billion/yr REDD trade
Poverty reduction
Prevent Species loss

A A win-win-win
win-win-win
Tropical Deforestation 2007 outcome
outcome
13 million hectares burned
7 billion tons CO2 emissions

1824 Liters per year 4.8 tons CO2 emissions per
(10.6 km/l x 19,370 km per year) = year

~$48 to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation at $10 per tCO2
Adds 7 cents per gallon

Irreversible Loss
In the wake of 14
million hectares of
tropical forests
burned down each
year, some 16 million
species populations
go extinct.
Endemic species
comprising the
natural laboratory of
biocomplexity with
future values yet to
be assessed or
discovered.

Bioprospecting biological wealth using
bioinformatic tools from field to lab

 One-quarter all medical drugs
used in developed world from
plants.
 Cortisone and first oral
contraceptives derived from
Central American yam species
 Pacific yew in western US
yielded anti-cancer drug taxol
 Vincristine from the Rosy
Periwinkle in Madagascar
 Drug to prevent blood clotting
from snake venom
 Active ingredient aspirin
synthesized from willow trees.

Bioprospecting biological wealth using
biotechnology tools from field to lab
Biomolecules prospected
from different bio-resources
for pesticidal, therapeutic and
other agriculturally important
compounds
 Biomolecules for Industrial and
Medicinal Use
 Novel Genes/Promoters to
address Biotic and Abiotic
Stress
 Genes for Transcription Factors
 Metabolic Engineering Pathways
 Nutritional Enhancement
 Bioavailability of Elements
 Microbial Biodiversity

Ultra-low Carbon
multi-beneficial
Energy, Mobility &
Utility Service Options

Attributes of Green Energy, Mobility &
Utility Energy Services
Dozen Desirable Criteria
1. Economically affordable including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?
2. Safe through the entire life cycle?
3. Clean through the entire lifespan?
4. Risk is low and manageable from financial and price volatility?
5. Resilient and flexible to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?
6. Ecologically sustainable no adverse impacts on biodiversity?
7. Environmentally benign maintains air, water, soil quality?
8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises?
9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures low recovery cost and lost time?
10. Endogenous learning capacity Intrinsic transformative innovation opportunities?
11. Robust experience curve for reducing negative
externalities & amplifying positive externalities scalable production possibilities?
12. Uninteresting target for malicious disruption off radar of terrorists or military planners?

Uninteresting military target
A Defensible Green Robust experience curves
Energy Criteria Scoring Endogenous learning capacity
Rebounds easily from failures
Promote Fails gracefully, not catastro
Environmentally benign
CHP + Ecologically sustainable
biowastes
Resilient & flexible
Secure
Clean
Safe
Economically Affordable

Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste Geo- Nat Bio- Oil Coal Coal Coal to Tar Oil nuclear
power thermal gas fuels imports CCS no liquids sand shale
CCS

Universal symbol for Efficiency

eta
η The best thing
about low-
hanging fruit
is that it keeps
growing back.

SHRINKING footprints through Continuous innovation

ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS
Now use 1/2 global power
50% efficiency savings achievable
90% cost savings

$2+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 59 gigatons CO2 Reduction

Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change
Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html

Beyond Zero Net
Energy Buildings
The Costs and
Financial Benefits
of Green Buildings,
Public library – North Carolina A Report to
California‟s
Sustainable
Building Task
Force, Oct. 2003, by
Greg Kats et al.

$500 to $700 per
m2 net present
value
Oberlin College
Heinz Foundation Ecology Center,
Green Building, PA Ohio

Daylighting could displace 100s GWs

Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights,
consume half of a commercial building
electricity.
Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time
lighting, eliminating massive amount of power
plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in
avoided costs.
Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.

High-E Windows displacing pipelines
Full use of high performance windows in the
U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan
pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as
well as accrue over $15 billion per year of
savings on energy bills.

Cost of new delivered electricity (cents per kWh)

CCS

US current
average

nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind bldg scale recycled end-use
cogen cogen ind cogen efficiency
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing
one dollar to make or save delivered electricity 2¢ 50

33

25


2¢ 47
Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced
per dollar spent on electrical services
1¢: 93 kg
CO2/$

32

23


Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from
revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants
For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services

USA minus CA & NY
Per Capital
Electricity 165 GW
Consumption Coal
Power
New York Plants
California
[EPPs]
Californian‟s have
net savings of
$1,000 per family

California 30 year proof of IRP value in promoting
lower cost efficiency over new power plants or
hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions.

California signed MOUs with Provinces in China
to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).

The Stone
Age did
not end
because it
ran out of
stones
The Fossil
CHANGE Fuel Age
won’t end
because it
ran out of
fossils

A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere
worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never
failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatility
afflicting most energy and power sources used in driving
economic activity

Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients –
1336 Watts per m2 from the Photon Bit stream

Annual global energy consumption by humans

Oil SOLAR PHOTONS
Gas ACCRUED IN A MONTH
EXCEED THE EARTH’S
FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES
Coal

ANNUAL Wind
Uranium

Hydro

ANNUAL Solar Energy

Photosynthesis

Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008, p. 366. The figure is based on National
Petroleum Council, 2007 after Craig, Cunningham and Saigo.

Harnessing 1/7500th of the Sun’s
delivered photons is technically,
economically & financially feasible.
Scientists confident that 10X this
amount can be harnessed this century.

GreenATP can drive transformational
innovations essential for shifting to a
solar powered global economy --
buyers, incentives, financing, training,
R&D, standards, training, policies, etc

In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by
applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban area—
on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and
in dual-uses. Requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.
Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new
land to make PV our primary energy source!

Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90%
total US electricity from brownfields
90% of America’s current
electricity could be supplied with
PV systems built in the ―brown-
fields‖— the estimated 2+ million
hectares of abandoned industrial
sites that exist in our nation’s
cities.

Cleaning Up
Brownfield
Sites w/
PV solar

Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;

Photovoltaics is an Excellent Creator of Jobs

Source: Dave Miller, President, DuPont Electronics & Communications, GW Solar Institute Symposium,
The Critical Role of Materials in the Solar PV Industry, April 19, 2010

Innovative Solar Financing Options
Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing

Solar power beats thermal plants within their
construction lead time—at zero carbon price

Source: Amory Lovins, RMI2009 from Ideas to Solutions, Reinventing Fire, Nov. 2009, www.rmi.org/ citing SunPower analysis

China Economics of Commercial BIPV
Building-Integrated Photovoltaics
Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR)
& Payback Periods (PBP) for „Architectural‟ BIPV
(Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and
Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)

Material Economic
Beijing Shanghai
Replaced Measure
NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237
Polished BCR 2.33 2.14
Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1
NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024
BCR 1.89 1.70
Aluminum
PBP (yrs) 2 2
SunSlate Building-Integrated
Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial
building in Switzerland
Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]

China EconomicsCommercial BIPV
Economics of of Commercial BIPV

Reference costs of facade-cladding materials
BIPV is so economically attractive because it
captures both energy savings and savings from
displacing other expensive building materials.

Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:
Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/

21GW
Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998-2008
MW
40% annual growth rate
Doubling <22 months

40% annual growth rate through
2030 could provide twice current
total world energy use
Compared to:
Wind power 121,000 MW [158,000 in 2009]
Nuclear power 350,000 MW
Hydro power 770,000 MW
Natural Gas power 1 million MW
Coal power 2 million MW

2009

Shifting from a $2500 trillion energy bill
this century, 75% from fossil fuels

To an energy
bill half this
amount, and
75% solar
services.

Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters

120 million electric bicycles & scooters in China
Cost of owning and operating an e-bike is the lowest of all
personal motorized transportation in China.

$3 per gallon gasoline is equivalent to 36 cents per kWh –
twice as expensive as solar PV electricity

Source: Jonathan Weinert, Chaktan Ma, Chris Cherry, The Transition to Electric Bikes in China: History and Key Reasons
for Rapid Growth; Alan Durning, Three Trends that favor electric bikes, 12-20-10, www.grist.org/article/charging-up

Shifting Government R&D Focus and Funds
Billion $ 2008 constant
90 $85
2

80
Civilian Nuclear Power
70
(1948 – 2009)
60

vs. 50

40

Solar Photovoltaics 30

(1975-2009) 20

10 $4.2
1

0 1 2
PV NUCLEAR

What Annual Growth Rate Can Solar PV Sustain this Century?
Rate Largely Driven by Incentives, Finance Innovations, Public Policies & Regulations

200000 Solar PV Growth @ 20% per year 2032
@
180000
40%
>10X total world energy consumption than in 2009
160000
2071
GigaWatts (GW)

140000 @
15%
120000

100000 2103
@
80000 10%
60000

40000

20000
15000 GW total world consumption in 2009
0
2009 2013 2016 2020 2023 2027 2031 2034 2038 2041 2045 2049 2052 2056

GIS Mapping the Solar
Potential of Urban Rooftops

100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND,
WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS – Achievable this Century
Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.

Catalyzing solar smart poly-grids

Continuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energy
provided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream based
on real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data with
administrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.

Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions

Smart Grid design based on digital map algorithms continuously
calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of
urban solar panel locations based on multi-criteria targets.

95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains
Figures of Merit
Great Plains area
1,200,000 mi2

Provide 100% U.S. electricity
400,000 3MW wind turbines

Platform footprint
6 mi2

Large Wyoming Strip Mine
>6 mi2

Total WindFarm spacing area
37,500 mi2

Still available for farming
and prairie restoration
90%+ (34,000 mi2)

CO2 U.S. electricity sector
40% USA total GHG emissions

Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double
farm/ranch income with 30x less land area
Although agriculture controls about 70%
of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4
to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.

Wind farms could enable one of the
greatest economic booms in American
history for Great Plains rural
communities, while also enabling one of
world’s largest restorations of native
prairie ecosystems
How?

The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota,
South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains
= Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of
Rural Farm and Ranch Income
US Farm Revenues per hectare
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy

non-wind farm Wind profits

windpower farm

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm non-wind farm
govt. subsidy $0 $60
windpower royalty $200 $0
farm commodity revenues $50 $64
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/

Montana South Dakota
GREAT PLAINS
WIND RESOURCES
in varying stages of digital
Wyoming Nebraska Apps --technical, training
ecological, economic,
financial assessment,
mapping & mashups,
visualization, installation,
Iowa operation & post-
Colorado production options

Oklahoma
New Mexico
Texas

Great Plains Dust Bowl in 1930s
Again this century, but worse

China
Opps
Intensive farming
and grazing
practices and
deforestation in
China have led to
more frequent dust
storms, like this one
in 2001 that swept
aerosol particles
into the Great Lakes
region of the US,
and even left a
sprinkling in the
Alps mountains in
Europe.

Offshore Wind potential several times greater than total world energy consumption

Announced turbine developments

China Offshore Wind

USA Offshore Wind >7 meters/second Brazil Offshore Wind

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
Solar-battery
Wind turbines
ground footprint
Wind-battery
turbine spacing

Cellulosic ethanol

Corn ethanol

Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable
resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles

COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford
University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

Orangutan habitat destruction
for biodiesel oil palm plantations

Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off

Mississippi River Delta

Instead, Use Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock for
Biofuel Production through Algae Systems
Yangtze River Pearl River

Small Land footprint
Only Wastewater as Feedstock
Butanol, Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs

Shallow production area –
30x less land area than crop
biofuels for same yields

Locally diverse algae produce biomass (Biomimicry)
Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923

Nutrient Rich Water Clean water
(Sewage, polluted river water) Lower N P P, higher O2 + pH
ATS
+ atmospheric CO2 Less CO2 in atmosphere
(or power plant stack gases)

ALGAL
CO2 BIOMASS

Biobutanol Solvent
Fermenter Extraction
(Clostridium butylicum
Oil
Ethanol
C. Pasteurianum, etc.)
Acetone C6H12O6  C4H9OH + CO2 + …
Transesterification
Lactic Acid
Acetic Acid

Organic Biodiesel
Fertilizer

Biofuel Production from Algal
Turf Scrubber Biomass
(50 tons per acre or 125 tons per hectare per year, dry)
Estimated Biofuel Production
gallons per acre [ha per year]
Algae
butanol 1520
+
biodiesel [3,770 gal/ha/yr] 2000
[5,000 gal/ha/yr]

Corn (ethanol) 500 ----
[1,250 gal/ha/yr]

Soy (biodiesel) ---- 100
[250 gal/ha/yr]


2 billion people lack safe water

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking
dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach
adulthood stunted for good.


4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust
physical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of
dollars in lost income to the poor


A new water disinfector for the
developing world’s poor
DESIGN CRITERIA
• Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for
disinfection
• Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1
ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1
m3)
• Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor
• Reliable, Mature components
• Can treat unpressurized water
• Rapid throughput: 12 seconds
• Low maintenance: 4x per year
• No overdose risk
• Fail-safe
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries,
Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-
water%202008.pdf WaterHealth Intl device

WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs.
Other Treatment Options


WaterHealth International

The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of
pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and
Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per
person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.


WaterHealth International

Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of
our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of
operating and maintaining the equipment and facility.
Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these “micro-utilities,” thus
creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities
for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified water
to outlying areas.
And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the user
fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.

At the same time, climate-triggered weather disasters are expected
to severely reduce global agricultural yields – by 20 to 40 %.
Projected reductions in yield in some African countries could be as
much as 50% by 2020.

Food, Fuel, Species
Tradeoffs?
By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of
land may be required for agriculture.
Combined with the 800 million ha of
additional land needed for medium growth
bioenergy scenarios, threatens intact
ecosystems and biodiversity-rich habitats.

FOOD SECURITY & AGROBIODIVERSITY
Using low-input, high-yield micro-farming methods can
grow complete vegetarian diets on 1 hectare of land
sufficient for 100 people.
Urban food production worldwide is a key climate
mitigation and adaptation strategy, enhancing food security
and system resilience against ever-increasing threat of
sudden supply disruptions and price spikes.
Urban farming for many populations around the world is
literally an insurance hedge against the threat of persistent
hunger.

Currently, 15% of food is grown in urban areas. Many cities
could grow complete food diets on 10% of urban land area.

COMMUNITY FOODSCAPES & EDIBLE SCHOOLYARDS

WILD DIVERSITY & HEIRLOOM SEEDS
There are more than 20,000 known species of edible plants in the world and yet, today, less than
20 species of plants now supply most of our plant foods; just four plant species – corn, wheat,
rice and potatoes – feed more people than the next 26 plant species combined

Using Green Apps & Tipping Points for
Growing Food for Self, Family, and Income

Climate mitigation actions

Complete the Streets
Web-based routes

Bicycle promotion programs
Walkability city programs

Geographic Wikis

Source: Reid Royer Priedhorsky and Loren G. Terveen, The Value of Geographic Wikis, 2010

Handhelds can enable &
enoble citizens,
consumers, families,
neighborhoods,
communities, regions,
nations and the world
human society towards
practical wisdom

Barefoot Women’s Solar Engineering Assoc.

Characteristics of crowdsourcing processes

19 distinct process types identified from46 crowdsourcing
examples. Subsequent cluster analysis shows general patterns
among these types and indicates a link to certain applications of
crowdsourcing. 96 theoretically possible process types (for the
current dimensions) have been identified so far.
Source: David Geiger et al, Managing the Crowd: Towards a Taxonomy of Crowdsourcing Processes, Proceedings of the
Seventeenth Americas Conference on Information Systems, Detroit, Aug. 4th-7th 2011

The Collective Intelligence Genome
THE LEADING QUESTION
How can you get crowds to do what your business needs done?

FINDINGS
Collective Intelligence (CI) has already been proven to work, and CI
systems can be designed and managed to fit specific needs.
CI building blocks, or “genes,” can be recombined to create the right
kind of system.

Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT Slow
Mgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3

Successful Commercial & Social Collective Intelligence Web Sites

Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT Slow
Mgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3

When the Crowd gene is useful
The Crowd gene is most useful in situations where the resources
and skills needed to perform an activity are distributed widely or
reside in places that are not known in advance.

Innovative Collaborative Knowledge Networks, http://www.ickn.org/innovation.html

Flowchart for the design of a CI system
Developing a detailed decision tree
This approach then asks a series of sequential,
logical questions, the answers of which form
specific guidelines for all CI systems:
1. Can activities be divided into pieces? Are
necessary resources widely distributed or in
unknown locations?
2. Are there adequate incentives to
participate?
3. What kind of activity needs to be done?
4. Can the activity be divided into small,
independent pieces?
5. Are only a few good (best) solutions
needed?
6. Does the entire group need to abide by the
same decision?
7. Are money or resources required to
exchange hands or motivate decision?

Source: Noah Radford, How to Build a Collective Intelligence Platform to Crowdsource
Almost Anything, August 21, 2010, http://news.noahraford.com

Noah Raford, When Collective
Intelligence Genes are Useful,
2010, www.noahraford.com

Noah Raford, When Collective Intelligence Genes are Useful, 2010, www.noahraford.com

Green
ATP
60
month
Green
ATP

Goal

Green ATP Operating Budget
ANNUAL MONTHLY 60 MONTHS
THE TEAM
(fully loaded) (fully loaded) (fully loaded)
Chief Persuader $ 200,000 $ 16,667 $ 1,000,000
Chief Networker $ 150,000 $ 12,500 $ 750,000
Chief Interfacer $ 150,000 $ 12,500 $ 750,000
Chief Engineer $ 150,000 $ 12,500 $ 750,000
Finance (1) $ 10,000 $ 833 $ 50,000
Legal (1) $ 10,000 $ 833 $ 50,000
Support (2) $ 30,000 $ 2,500 $ 150,000
Technical equipment
$ 80,000 $ 6,667 $ 400,000
and services
Travel & Promotion $ 25,000 $ 2,083 $ 125,000
TOTAL $ 805,000 $ 67,083 $ 4,025,000

How much is a unique visitor
worth on the Internet?

Depends on who you are. Amazon (e-commerce) is generating $189 per user. Google
(search) is generating $24 per user. Facebook (social networking) is only generating $4
per user according to this chart from JP Morgan's Imran Khan.

Potential Growth Scenarios
1 hour of 2% TOTAL
Site Green TOTAL
Volunteer Service service
END USER Product Service
time/week @ earnings earnings+
ENGAGEMENT Purchases Earnings Outcomes?
$9/hour value on volunteer
SCENARIOS (million $ only (million
(million $ per purchases time (million
per year) $ per year)
year) (million $) $ per year)
WILD
100,000,000 $ 46,800 $ 10,000 $ 1,000 $ 47,800 $ 1,000 SUCCESS
VIRAL
10,000,000 $ 4,680 $ 1,000 $ 100 $ 4,780 $ 100 SUCCESS
1,000,000 $ 468 $ 100 $ 10 $ 478 $ 10 SUCCESS
BUDGET
100,000 $ 47 $ 10 $ 1$ 48 $ 1 SURPLUS
BUDGET
10,000 $ 5$ 1 $ 0$ 5$ 0.1 DEFICIT

INKIND assumes 1 hour of Volunteer time per week per end user valued at $9/hr
PRODUCT purchases assumes $100 per end user per year
SERVICE transaction earnings assumes 2 percent of Product purchases

Green
ATP

Michael P. Totten, mtotten@conservation.org

GreenATP ucla anderson business school mp totten 06 11

Empfohlen

Empfohlen

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

Was ist angesagt? (20)

Ähnlich wie GreenATP ucla anderson business school mp totten 06 11

Ähnlich wie GreenATP ucla anderson business school mp totten 06 11 (20)

Mehr von Michael P Totten

Mehr von Michael P Totten (20)

Kürzlich hochgeladen

Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)

GreenATP ucla anderson business school mp totten 06 11