We can see the light at the end of the tunnel, but we're still in the tunnel...

1. We can see the light at the end of the tunnel,
but we’re still in the tunnel…
David Shapiro

2. We can see the light at the end of the
tunnel, but we’re still in the tunnel…

3. JSE All Share Index
JSE peaks on views
housing collapse
confined to US
Lehman collapse
brings end to bull
market fueled by low
interest rates, excess
liquidity and booming
housing prices
Bail outs, stimulus
measures, bond
purchases calm
nerves inspiring
turnaround, but
markets faltering on
worries about weak
recovery

4. Uncertainties in developed economies
persist
United States
• Recovery faltering – further QE probable
• Consumers working down debt – confidence lowest in 7 months – gas prices, job security,
fall in house and equity markets keeping anxiety levels high
• Unemployment rate unacceptably high
• Housing still casting a gloomy shadow – price rebound losing momentum
• Credit markets remain tight
• Corporations in good shape – cash flush, but shy to hire
• President Obama popularity plunging on jobs, high health insurance costs and anti-business
rhetoric
• Trade war with China possible if contentious currency bill passed by both houses
Europe
• German growth strong on booming exports
• Rest of euro zone tepid, especially countries like Greece and Spain
• Debt issues not fully resolved – Ireland currently in the spotlight
• Consumer demand languid
• Austerity measures could weigh on growth
• UK – housing market drooping – calls for further stimulus measures

5. GDP growth rates
Advanced markets
ACTUAL FORECAST
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
World 5.1 5.2 3.2 -1.4 4.6 4.3
Advanced Economies 3.0 2.8 0.5 -3.2 2.6 2.4
USA 2.8 2.0 0.4 -2.4 3.3 2.9
Euro Area 2.8 2.6 0.6 -4.1 1.0 1.3
UK 2.8 3.0 0.5 -4.9 1.2 2.1
Germany 2.9 2.4 1.2 -4.9 1.4 1.6
France 2.0 1.9 0.1 -2.5 1.4 1.6
Japan 2.4 2.4 -1.2 -5.2 2.4 1.8
Canada 2.8 2.5 0.5 -2.5 3.6 2.8

6. Money flows to safe havens
GOLD USD / YEN
US Govt 10 Yr Bond US Govt 2 Yr Bond

7. Global gold holdings

8. GDP growth rates
Emerging markets
ACTUAL FORECAST
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
World 5.1 5.2 3.2 -1.4 4.6 4.3
Emerging Economies 6.9 6.6 6.1 2.5 6.8 6.4
Russia 6.7 7.0 5.6 -7.9 4.3 4.1
India 9.7 8.9 6.4 5.7 9.4 8.4
Brazil 3.7 4.4 5.1 -0.2 7.1 4.2
Mexico 4.8 2.9 1.5 -6.5 4.5 4.4
China 11.6 13.0 9.6 8.7 10.5 9.6
RSA 5.4 5.1 3.7 -1.8 2.8 3.7

9. Metal prices remain firm
Concerns about deflation
or “double dip” not
evident in metal prices

10. Back home
ZAR / USD
JSE – Foreign Flows
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
ZAR'bn
0.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-20.00
-40.00
-60.00
-80.00
Foreign Transactions Equities - Net R'bn Foreign Transactions Besa - Net R'bn

11. South African economy
Foreign perspective
South Africa is a compelling growth opportunity – Wal Mart
Market a proxy for investing in Africa
Low debt to GDP – 6% versus US 11%
EZA quoted ETF up 13% in 2010 versus S&P500 3%
Valuations attractive relative to other emerging markets
First world financial markets – with high corporate governance
standards
Crime, corruption, politics and unemployment a worry but
considered a normal risk of investing in emerging markets
Recent deals a vote of confidence – HSBC/Nedbank, NTT/Didata

12. South African economy
Local perspective
Recovery stammering:
• Consumers remain under pressure
• Mining and manufacturing poised to slow
• Tough times ahead for construction
Strong Rand hurting competition
Future power and water supply uncertain
Labour demands continue to be excessive – restricting practises
Unemployment unacceptably high – lead to increased social spending
Expansion inhibited by bureaucratic incompetence, corruption, ideology
Tenure of property rights unclear – nationalisation still on the ANC agenda
Questions over education, healthcare and high crime levels
Inevitably lead to:
• Higher borrowing
• Increased taxes

13. Investment ideas for difficult markets

14. Local stock selection
Fin Commo- Pricing
Equity Preference High Yield EM
Strength dities Power
Anglo American    
BHP Billiton    
Sasol   
SABMiller   
Richemont   
British American Tobacco    
Naspers  
Shoprite  
Clicks  
ABIL  
Standard Bank  

15. High yield opportunities
Onshore
Running
Issuer Investment Currency Rating
Yield
Nedbank Perpetual Pref ZAR AA- 6.87%
Investec Bank Perpetual Pref ZAR AA- 7.39%
Investec Perpetual Pref ZAR A+ 7.30%
Standard Bank Perpetual Pref ZAR AA+ 6.66%
FirstRand Perpetual Pref ZAR AA 6.65%
ABSA Bank Perpetual Pref ZAR AAA 6.96%
Sasfin Holdings Perpetual Pref ZAR n/a 7.72%
African Bank Perpetual Pref ZAR A1 7.47%
Capitec Bank Perpetual Pref ZAR A2 8.27%

16. Global stock selection
Fin Cons. Pricing
Equity Preference High Yield EM
Strength Staple Power
Nestle    
Coca-Cola Co   
H&M  
LVMH  
YUM! Brands Inc 
Colgate  
Goldman Sachs 
Google 
Johnson & Johnson 
ABB  
Royal Dutch Shell   

17. High yield opportunities
Offshore
Running
Issuer Investment Currency Rating
Yield
Perpetual
Old Mutual Plc USD BBB- 8.04%
Pref
Perpetual
Prudential Plc USD A- 9.71%
Pref
Perpetual
Barclays Plc USD A- 7.18%
Pref
Perpetual
Standard Bank Plc USD BBB+ 8.26%
Pref
Investec Plc 2016 GBP BB+ 7.53%
Perpetual
Investec Plc Tier 1 EUR B1 8.04%
Pref
PE Paper (Sappi) 2014 USD BB 6.89%

18. Company details
Company 5 Yr Chart Company Description
Nestle is the world’s leading nutrition, health and wellness company.
The Group employs 280,000 people and have factories and
operations in almost every country around the world.
The Coca-Cola Company is the world’s largest beverage company,
largest manufacturer, distributor and marketer of non-alcoholic
beverage concentrates and syrups in the world.
Hennes & Mauritz is a Swedish clothing company, known for its fast
fashion clothing offerings for women, men, teenagers and children.
The Group has 2,000 stores in 37 different countries.
LVMH is one of the world’s largest luxury goods conglomerate. It is
the parent of around 60 sub-companies that each manage a small
number of prestigious brands.
Yum! is the world’s largest fast food restaurant company, over
36,000 restaurants in more than 110 countries. Yum! operates or
licenses Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut worldwide.

19. Company details
Company 5 Yr Chart Company Description
Colgate is an American diversified corporation focused on the production,
distribution and provision of household, health care and personal products.
Goldman Sachs is a global investment banking and securities firm which
engages in investment banking, securities, investment management and
other financial services.
Google is a multinational public cloud computing, internet search and
advertising technologies corporation. Google processes over one billion
search requests every day.
J&J is a global pharmaceutical, medical devices and consumer packaged
goods manufacturer. J&J includes 250 subsidiary companies with
operations in over 57 countries.
ABB is one of the largest engineering companies in the world, operating in
around 100 countries. The Group’s focus is power and automation
technology areas.
Shell is a multinational petroleum company operating in over 140
countries. Shell was listed as the world’s eighth largest corporation for
2010 by Forbes.

21. Thank you
Dave Shapiro