•This ‘exploratory’ research study will attempt to contribute new knowledge to expand the educational theory and/or practice, as to how to identify the suicide terrorist threat, and how to respond to dissuade, deter, or defeat the suicide terrorist before he or she reaches the target. As such the objectives of this research study will focus specifically on; –Identifying the threat of suicide terrorist –Formulating a strategy, to respond to / counter suicide terrorism

1. 1
Defence of Thesis
Suicide Terrorism: Threat & Response
BY
AIR VICE MARSHAL MOHAN DE ZOYSA
SRI LANKA AIR FORCE
2012
1

2. 2
Suicide Terrorism: Threat &
Response
• Since the year 1982, the
phenomenon of suicide
terrorist attacks has spread
all over the world and many
countries have found
themselves suffering the
effects of this growing
terrorist ‘modus operandi’
LTTE suicide terrorist attack – Sri Lanka
2

3. 3
Suicide Terrorism: Threat &
Response
• The suicide terrorist is no more
than a platform that carries the
explosive charge to its target.
However, this platform can
think, adapt to situational
changes and act at the right
time and the right place to
detonate the explosive device
so as to create maximum
carnage and destruction in a
spectacular manner; it is the
ultimate precision guided smart LTTE female suicide terrorist attack
human bomb using “Bra” bomb – Sri Lanka
3

4. 4
Scope
• Statement of the Problem
• Hypothesis
• Research Question
• Major Findings
• Gist of the analyses
• Recommendations
• Literature Review and
Sources of Research
Major suicide terrorism hotspots
• Methodology Followed
• Conclusion
4

5. 5
Statement of the Problem
5

6. 6
Statement of the Problem
• This ‘exploratory’ research study will attempt to
contribute new knowledge to expand the
educational theory and/or practice, as to how to
identify the suicide terrorist threat, and how to
respond to dissuade, deter, or defeat the suicide
terrorist before he or she reaches the target. As such
the objectives of this research study will focus
specifically on;
– Identifying the threat of suicide terrorist
– Formulating a strategy, to respond to / counter suicide
terrorism
6

7. 7
Hypothesis
7

8. 8
Hypothesis
• The ‘initiative of action’ in conducting a suicide
attack, predominantly lies with the terrorist than, in
conducting any other type of attack by terrorists. How
then should democracies identify the threat and respond
to suicide terrorist attacks?
• It is my expectation that, the research will conclude
that, if we are to defeat the suicide terrorist, we need to
wrest the ‘initiative of action’ from him or her, and use it
to our own advantage; and in order to do this, we have
to be ‘one step ahead’ of the suicide terrorist, at all times
8

9. 9
Hypothesis (contd)
• In order to be ‘one step ahead’ we need to broaden the
intelligence priority information requirement to ‘find and
fix’ the suicide terrorist attacker; in other words, how we
need to look at the ‘bigger picture’
• For, the suicide terrorist attacker to be successful in
his/her attack at least a skeleton support organization
must exist; recruitment drive, training, induction to
target area, safe house, reconnaissance,
communications, preparation of the bomb, psychological
preparation, final briefing and video filming of the attack
(for terrorist propaganda)
9

10. 10
Hypothesis
• If all intelligence efforts are directed towards any one or
more of the suicide terrorist attacker’s support
elements, it would eventually lead us to the suicide
terrorist attacker
• Whilst the intelligence effort is continued, the military
could conduct ‘pre-emptive’ attacks on the terrorists’
infrastructure to destroy the terrorists and their
bases, and to prevent them from recruiting and
reorganizing for further suicide terrorist action
10

11. 11
Research Question
11

12. 12
Research Question
• Considering the wide spectrum of aspects the
subject of ‘Suicide Terrorism’ covers, the research
will limit its exploration & discussion, as to how to
identify the suicide terrorist ‘threat’ and how to
‘respond’ to dissuade, deter, or defeat the suicide
terrorist attacker before he or she reaches the target
12

13. 13
Major Findings
13

14. 14
Major Findings
• There are six main types of suicide improvised
explosive devices (IEDs). These are:
– the human-borne suicide IED, also known as the
suicide bodysuit
– the vehicle-borne suicide IED
LTTE Black Tigers
– the motorcycle-borne suicide IED
– naval craft-borne suicide IED – (LTTE)
– scuba diver-borne suicide IED - (LTTE)
– aerial- (micro/ultra light, glider,
mini-helicopter) borne suicide IED - (LTTE)
14

15. Devices Used by LTTE Suicide Attackers 15
in Sri Lanka
– the human-borne suicide IED, also known as the
suicide bodysuit
1987: 1987: 1987: 2008: 2 kg TNT ‘Bra’ bomb
3 kg 3 kg 3 kg
2001: 12 kg TNT ‘Vest” 2001: 12 kg TNT ‘Vest” 2008: 20 kg TNT ‘Multi-device Vest”
15

16. Devices Used by LTTE Suicide Attackers 16
in Sri Lanka
– naval craft-borne suicide IED
1997: 200 kg TNT ‘Hi-speed anti-radar armor plated suicide boat boat’
– scuba diver-borne suicide IED - (LTTE)
2001: 20 kg TNT ‘Underwater-scooter’ suicide bomb’
16

17. Devices Used by LTTE Suicide Attackers 17
in Sri Lanka
– aerial- (micro/ultra light, glider, mini-helicopter)
borne suicide IED - (LTTE)
2008: ZLIN-143 two seater ‘suicide attack aircraft’ – 250 kg TNT 17

18. 18
Major Findings
• There are two types of suicide terrorist operations: on-
the-battlefield (extensively used by LTTE in Sri Lanka) and
off-the-battlefield
• Preventive arrests reduces suicide terrorist
bombings, while targeted killings only increases the
terrorist activity
• Increased protective measures and the exposure of the
potential suicide terrorist before he/she has the
opportunity to carry out the attack at the planned target
may reduce the amount of damage caused by the suicide
terrorist and perhaps even prevent the attack
18

19. 19
Major Findings
• It is impossible to stop a suicide terrorist. There is no
operational answer to it
• The key to stopping suicide terrorism campaigns, is to
prevent the rise of a new generation of suicide
terrorists, by addressing the root causes of terrorism
• Countries which are "conducive to the spread of suicide
terrorism" are those characterized by violations of
human rights, ethnic, national and religious
discrimination, political exclusion, socio-economic
marginalization, and “lack of good governance”
• The formula to counter suicide terrorism is “defeat-clear-
hold-build”
19

20. 20
Major Findings
• A new trend in Islamist terrorist organizations appeared
that, civilians being forced to carry out suicide bombings
• Another new tactical trend in the field among Islamist
terrorist organizations in Afghanistan and in Pakistan is
sending two or more suicide terrorist attackers to destroy
the same target
• Another disconcerting trend of suicide terrorism that can
be observed is that, suicide terrorism is being
adopted, by non-terrorist organizations, political rivals
and even individuals to achieve their own goals
• There is an increase in women taking part in suicide
terrorist attacks
20

21. 21
Gist of the analyses
21

22. 22
Gist of the analyses
• Existing research shows that suicide terrorism is a
problematic term to define. There is no universally
accepted definition of the term ‘terrorist’ let alone of the
term ‘suicide terrorist’
• Working definitions for the purpose of this research;
– Terrorist: An insurgent, militant, rebel, freedom
fighter, fundamentalist, radical, extremist, miscreant
or non-state actor who, willingly perpetrates violence
against the military, non-combatants and
civilians, causing death or bodily harm to them, with
the intention of instilling fear and panic to attain
political or ideological goals, as part of an
organizational strategy
22

23. 23
Gist of the analyses
• Working definitions for the purpose of research; (cont’d)
– Suicide Terrorist: A ‘terrorist’ who attacks the target
by willingly killing him/her self with the blast of an
explosives device, detonated by him/her self or allow
to be detonated remotely by another terrorist, against
the military, non-combatants and civilians, causing
death or bodily harm to them, with the intention of
instilling fear and panic to attain strategic, political or
ideological goals, as part of an organizational strategy.
This also includes so called ‘martyr’ terrorists,
however excludes suicide/homicide bombers, suicidal
high risk attacks and suicidal protests
23

24. 24
Gist of the analyses
• Today, the suicide bombers are middle-aged and
young, married and unmarried, and male and
female; some of them even pregnant or having
children. Now even children are being trained and
employed for suicide attacks. There is no clear profile
of a suicide terrorist attacker anymore
• The latest research finds Strong confirmation that
military occupation of territory is the main factor
driving transnational suicide terrorism
24

25. 25
Suicide Terrorism Hot Spots
http://cpost.uchicago.edu/search.php 25

26. 26
Attacks By Group
http://cpost.uchicago.edu/search.php 26

27. 27
Attacks By Location
http://cpost.uchicago.edu/search.php 27

28. 28
Attacks By Year
http://cpost.uchicago.edu/search.php
28

29. 29
Attacks By Campaign
http://cpost.uchicago.edu/search.php
29

30. Attacks By Gender
30

31. Attacks By Weapon Type
31

32. Attacks By Target Type
32

33. 33
Analysis by Terrorists Occupation
• Occupation Attackers Attacks Killed Wounded
• Professional 40 38 626 2152
• Skilled 33 30 683 2301
• Student 11 9 527 1078
• Unemployed 14 6 187 417
• Unknown 1969 1591 23375 51600
• Unskilled 21 20 350 783
http://cpost.uchicago.edu/search.php
33

34. 34
Analysis by Terrorists Education
• Education Attackers Attacks Killed Wounded
• None 2 2 81 217
• Post-secondary 69 55 2594 6206
• Primary 5 5 124 179
• Secondary 28 26 504 1700
• Unknown 1984 1605 22443 50029
http://cpost.uchicago.edu/search.php
34

35. 35
Analysis By Terrorists Religion
• Religion Attackers Attacks Killed Wounded Christian
1 1 10 13
• Hindu 173 100 1341 3195
• Muslim (NA) 131 93 4292 15544
• Muslim (Other) 6 5 67 234
• Muslim (Shia) 11 9 84 100
• Muslim (Sunni) 17 16 171 393
• None 1 1 8 25
• Secular 11 10 307 185
• Unknown 1737 1465 19466 38643
http://cpost.uchicago.edu/search.php
35

36. 36
Recommendations
36

37. 37
Recommendations
• Democratic governments need to broaden the
intelligence priority information requirement to ‘find and
fix’ the suicide bomber; in other words, how we need to
look at the ‘bigger picture’
• All intelligence efforts must be directed towards any one
or more of the suicide bomber’s support element, which
eventually will lead to the suicide bomber
• Whilst the intelligence effort is continued, the military
must conduct pre-emptive attacks on the terrorists’
infrastructure to destroy the terrorists and their
bases, and to prevent them from recruiting and
reorganizing for further suicide terrorist action
37

38. 38
Recommendations (contd)
• In responding to the threat of suicide terrorism, we will
need to strengthen the important “elements of national
power” including national
leadership, diplomatic, informational, financial, economic
capacity, national morale and military strength
• It also calls for simultaneously, developing a
comprehensive strategic plan
• In order to combat terrorism in general and suicide
terrorism in particular, members of the international
community must:
– Deny terrorists the support and sanctuary of rogue
states
– Deny terrorists control of any nation they would use
as a base and launching pad for terror
38

39. 39
Literature Review and Sources of
Research
39

40. 40
Literature Review and Sources of Research
• Personal experiences & observations over a period of 30
years in the Air Force, out of which 28 years, in
counterterrorism operations against Liberation Tigers of
Tamil Eelam (LTTE) terrorists in Sri Lanka
• The strategies adopted to find and fix the suicide terrorist
before he/she could launch the attack and to wrest the
initiative of action from the hand of the suicide terrorist,
to defeat the suicide terrorist threat to some extent, in
Sri Lanka, have been invaluable for the review (excluding
classified strategic/operational details)
40

41. 41
Literature Review and Sources of Research
• Books (personal copies purchased from Jinnah Super
Market Islamabad – 20, and books borrowed from
the NDU Library – 12), articles, public
documents, public proceedings, internet resources
and research papers published by experts on the
topic of the research, formed a substantial part of
the review
• However, during the literature review, the author
found that, research on the subject of suicide
terrorism is plagued by the lack of a common
definition of the concept
41

42. 42
Literature Review and Sources of Research
• Some authors avoid the term terrorism
altogether, adopt the terrorism label without
defining it, or expand the range of applicability of the
definition well beyond terrorism
• Among those who resist the term terrorism, some
focus on the subjective interpretations of the
perpetrators and the idea of martyrdom in specific
cultures and thus avoid the term suicide as
well, because both labels are objectionable to those
who practice or condone such violence
42

43. 43
Literature Review and Sources of Research
• Others use the term terrorism to refer exclusively to
attacks on civilian, not military, targets
• The concept of suicide terrorism remains
imprecise, so much so that, certain research work
totally avoid the use of the term ‘terrorist’ and refer
to them as ‘miscreants, militants or extremists’
• As a consequence of contradiction, ambiguity and
biases, not many meaningful lessons could be drawn
from the vast majority of literature available for
review
43

44. 44
Methodology Followed
44

45. 45
Methodology Followed
• The broader area of study of “Suicide Terrorism” was
narrowed down to the specific research question, to
focus the study on the suicide terrorism – ‘Threat and
Response’
• The hypotheses were then formulated
• The review of observations, data and literature on the
topic was carried out
• The statement of the problem was then formulated
• The research was designed with the qualitative
approach, which involved the collection of data and
literature for an in-depth study
45

46. 46
Methodology Followed
• The collection of Primary and Secondary historical
data, observations, and literature on the topic was
conducted
• Having reviewed the qualitative research material, the
observations, data and literature were analyzed to
establish patterns, trends, and linkages to understand the
phenomena of defeating the suicide terrorist
• The observations, data, literature and other relevant
research material having been duly analyzed were then
interpreted to find answers to the “research questions”
and to prove or disprove the hypotheses formulated
46

47. 47
Methodology Followed
• Finally the thesis was compiled, describing the
background, how the research was conducted, what was
discovered and recommendations to formulate a
national strategy to counter suicide terrorism
• The thesis was designed and developed into five major
parts:
– Chapter - I: Introduction
– Chapter - II: Analysis of the Threat,
– Chapter - III: Formulation of Strategy for Response
– Chapter - IV: Recommendations for Response to the Threat
– Chapter - V: Conclusion
47

48. 48
Conclusion
48

49. 49
Conclusion
Future Threat Scenario
• When CBRN material are introduced to a suicide bomb
(dirty bomb - using its blast effect to disperse the
material), the potential for destruction is unprecedented
Impact on Research
• It’s a long march ahead of us before we can develop
valid, comprehensive, cross-national explanations of this
phenomenon, and perhaps an even longer march to be
able to specify the conditions and indicators that could
help us predict and prevent suicide terrorist attacks
49

50. 50
Thank You
50