1. Approaching Modern China Center for Industrial Ecology Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies 耶鲁大学森林与环境学院产业生态学中心 Prof. Marian Chertow Presentation to: Mandarin China - Yale Educational Travel October 2008

4. Divinity Medicine Management Law Music Drama Architecture Nursing Art Forestry and Environmental Studies Yale College 1701

8. Industrial Ecology … looks at human/industrial systems in the context of their natural surroundings

9. “ Industrial ecology is the study of the flows of materials and energy in industrial and consumer activities, of the effects of these flows on the environment, and of the influences of economic, political, regulatory, and social factors on the flow, use, and transformation of resources.” Defining Industrial Ecology Robert White NAE 1994

17. Source: Altenburg et al (2008),. Breakthrough? China’s and India’s transition from production to innovation. World Development, Volume 36, No. 2, 325-344 From 1995-2004 China’s contribution to global production of scientific publications rose from 2.0% to 6.5%

18. Averages Tell Us Little About China: Income of urban and rural residents

20. The Infamy of 2005!

22. Population Trends in China, India, and the United States, 1950 - 2050 So urce: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp , Heskesth, T et al. (2005) The Effect of One-Child Family Policy after 25 Years. The New England Journal of Medicine, Volume 353:1171-1176 China

23. The Distribution of World Population

24. Longevity is rapidly increasing Some Figures…..

25. Fertility is rapidly decreasing Some Figures….. Linked to one-child policy

26. Beginning in 2010 the world’s most populous nation will enter a 30 year period of rapid aging

27. What does Aging in China mean? The Numbers more than 300 million people 65 and older by 2050 more than 20% of the population 65 and older by 2050

28. USA - China A half century from now China will have a larger population over 65 by percent than USA And in comparison with the rest of the world?

29. And in comparison with the rest of the world? A half century from now the number of China’s elderly will be far greater than the combined elderly population of North America, Europe and Japan

31. PRC government structure

34. PRC government structure II

35. 3 types Source: Ma and Ortolano, 2000 3 at same level

38. Which is the real China I?

39. Which is the real China II?

41. A new industrialization model…for reconciling China’s twin goals To increase economic growth and social welfare 2000 2010 2020 2050 To decrease resource consumption and pollution Revised from: Prof. Zhu Dajian

43. Source: Liu, J. and Diamond, J. (2008). Revolutionizing China’s environmental protection. Science, Vol 413, 37-38 CO 2 emissions are rising in step with growing GDP

46. So which is the real China? (I) Photo credit: Beijing, Dan Eckstein 2006

47. So which is the real China? (II)