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Hot Trends:  Social Networks, Mobile Marketing and Online Video  October 3, 2008 Debra Aho Williamson Senior Analyst eMarketer Inc. October 3, 2008
What’s On Tap Today ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],October 3, 2008
October 3, 2008 Internet Ad Spending
Internet: Approaching 10% of Worldwide Ad Spending October 3, 2008
$25B in US Online Spending in ‘08 October 3, 2008 Source: eMarketer, August 2008 US Internet Ad Spending (billions)
Faltering Economy is Impacting  US Ad Budgets October 3, 2008
Why Will Online Advertising Thrive in a Difficult Economy?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],October 3, 2008
Advertisers are Committed to Increasing Online Spending October 3, 2008
Social Networks, Mobile and Online Video: THE GOOD ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],October 3, 2008
Social Networks, Mobile and Online Video: THE BAD ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],October 3, 2008 "If a certain kind of spending  hasn't been in your [advertising]  budget for three straight years,  you'll likely cut it when things  get tougher.” --Russell Fradin, president, Adify
And of Course, the Ugly  October 3, 2008
October 3, 2008 Social Networks
Social Networks: Only One  of Many Types of Social Media October 3, 2008 Source: Universal McCann
Is This Your Image of Social Networking? October 3, 2008
Social Network Growth Markets: Mideast, Europe and Latin America October 3, 2008
58% of Worldwide Internet Users Have Created a Profile October 3, 2008
US Usage Is Still Growing  October 3, 2008 Unique Visitors to MySpace and Facebook August 2007-August 2008 (thousands) 75.5 million (up 10% from ‘07) 41 million (up 21% from ‘07) Source: comScore Media Metrix
But Is It a Fad That’s  Losing Steam? October 3, 2008 US visits to social network sites are down 17% year-over-year vs. August 2007
SN Ad Spending Growth Slows  in 2009 and Beyond October 3, 2008
US Spending Still in Flux October 3, 2008 Source: eMarketer, 2008 +55% +27% +15% +13% +11% 12/07:  $1.6B 12/07:  $2.7B
News Corp. Acknowledges This October 3, 2008 “ Social networking has gotten a  disproportionately lower share of digital advertising budgets.  If you compare the amount of traffic and the amount of users we have with the portals, most of those guys have been putting 50%, 60% of their budgets in portals, and 10% of their budgets against social network sites.” -- COO Peter Chernin at Merrill Lynch presentation, Sept. 2008
Social Network Ad Experiments Continue October 3, 2008 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What About HyperTargeting? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],October 3, 2008
Facebook Continues to Experiment With Viral Marketing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],October 3, 2008 New Ad Features  “ Facebook has always tried to push the envelope. And at times that means stretching people and getting them to be comfortable with things they aren’t yet comfortable with. A lot of this is just  social norms catching up   with what technology is capable of. ”  Mark Zuckerberg, New York Times, September 2008
On the Other Hand, Too Much Targeting is Never a Good Thing October 3, 2008
October 3, 2008 Mobile Marketing
2008: The First Year Ad Spending Tracks Ahead of Subscribers October 3, 2008 Worldwide Mobile Ad Spending and Subscribers  2006-2012 (millions)
Mobile Usage Facts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],October 3, 2008
Why Mobile Advertising Trails  Mobile Subscribership ,[object Object],October 3, 2008 Privacy  Intrusiveness
Do Consumers Accept Mobile Phone Advertising? October 3, 2008 Source: Nielsen Co., September 2008
Where is the Money? October 3, 2008 Mobile Search Mobile Display Ads Text Messaging Or Here?
Or Here?  October 3, 2008 Google Android
Messaging Dominates Ad Spending October 3, 2008
US: 36% of 2008 Mobile Spending October 3, 2008
BMW’s Snow Tire Campaign  in Germany  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],October 3, 2008
Mobile Marketing: A Two-Way Street October 3, 2008 Take a photo, send  it in a multimedia  message  Receive a picture  of a customized  Nike shoe Save as wallpaper, send to friends Order personalized shoes directly
The iPhone is Changing How Consumers Use the Internet October 3, 2008
Mobile Phone Applications:  New Advertising Medium iPhone App Store Stats (9/08) October 3, 2008 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],“ The iPhone has changed users’  expectations of what is possible  in a mobile device and UI, and  the AppStore finally showed the  promise of mobile data applications.” --Kleiner Perkins VC firm
October 3, 2008 Online Video
The Digital Landscape  Confounds Many in the Media Biz October 3, 2008 “ We don’t know what’s gonna work. Predicting what the media world is gonna look like in eight years is incredibly daunting. I defy anybody to do that.” - Jeff Zucker, president-CEO, NBC Universal, September 2008
Consumers Love Online Video October 3, 2008
Half of US Population Watches Online October 3, 2008 Source: eMarketer, February 2008 US Online Video Users, 2006-2012  (% of population)
71% of US Internet users watch online videos at least once a week October 3, 2008 Source: Universal McCann, April 2008 % respondents , Mar. 2008
Types of video content people watch monthly: short,   short ,  short October 3, 2008 Source: eMarketer, February 2008 Full TV shows = 27% % total US video viewers, Feb. 2008
Websites Love Video, Too ,[object Object],[object Object],October 3, 2008
Video Ads: 2.6% of Online Spend in 2009 October 3, 2008 Source: eMarketer, September 2008 US Online Video Ad Spending  (millions and % of Internet total) “ Video is  the  growth format on the Internet. ”   --  David Hallerman, eMarketer 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% 3.4% 4.7% 6.8% 9.8%
But Video Won’t Challenge Search or Display -- Yet October 3, 2008 US Online Ad Spending, by Format (billions) 2008 & 2013 Source: eMarketer, August 2008
Factors supporting a (future) boom in online video spending ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],October 3, 2008
But There Are Significant Hurdles October 3, 2008 Can  consumer- generated video be monetized? What ad formats work best? Will consumers skip over ads?
Four flavors of video ads ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],October 3, 2008
In-Stream May Be Most Effective Ad Type October 3, 2008 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*provider of video ad technology
YouTube Experiments with Overlays October 3, 2008 New: Ad runs  post-roll (after clip) if  user doesn’t  click on overlay
But Ads on User-Generated Video  Trail Consumer Usage October 3, 2008 Source: The Diffusion Group, July 2008
Zappos Gets Clicks for Its Video Ad Campaign October 3, 2008 Ad appeared on 50  sites targeted  to females Video plays only after user clicks  on it Simplicity: Ad served by same company that serves rest of Zappos’ ads Result: 5% clickthrough rate (vs. just 0.3% for banner ads)
When It Comes to Video Ads,  One Attitude Does Not Fit All October 3, 2008
67% Will See an Online Video Ad At Least 1x a Month in 2008 October 3, 2008
The eMarketer View ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],October 3, 2008
Thank you !  Debra Aho Williamson Senior Analyst eMarketer Inc. October 3, 2008

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Hot Trends in Social Networks, Mobile Marketing and Online Video

  • 1. Hot Trends: Social Networks, Mobile Marketing and Online Video October 3, 2008 Debra Aho Williamson Senior Analyst eMarketer Inc. October 3, 2008
  • 2.
  • 3. October 3, 2008 Internet Ad Spending
  • 4. Internet: Approaching 10% of Worldwide Ad Spending October 3, 2008
  • 5. $25B in US Online Spending in ‘08 October 3, 2008 Source: eMarketer, August 2008 US Internet Ad Spending (billions)
  • 6. Faltering Economy is Impacting US Ad Budgets October 3, 2008
  • 7.
  • 8. Advertisers are Committed to Increasing Online Spending October 3, 2008
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. And of Course, the Ugly October 3, 2008
  • 12. October 3, 2008 Social Networks
  • 13. Social Networks: Only One of Many Types of Social Media October 3, 2008 Source: Universal McCann
  • 14. Is This Your Image of Social Networking? October 3, 2008
  • 15. Social Network Growth Markets: Mideast, Europe and Latin America October 3, 2008
  • 16. 58% of Worldwide Internet Users Have Created a Profile October 3, 2008
  • 17. US Usage Is Still Growing October 3, 2008 Unique Visitors to MySpace and Facebook August 2007-August 2008 (thousands) 75.5 million (up 10% from ‘07) 41 million (up 21% from ‘07) Source: comScore Media Metrix
  • 18. But Is It a Fad That’s Losing Steam? October 3, 2008 US visits to social network sites are down 17% year-over-year vs. August 2007
  • 19. SN Ad Spending Growth Slows in 2009 and Beyond October 3, 2008
  • 20. US Spending Still in Flux October 3, 2008 Source: eMarketer, 2008 +55% +27% +15% +13% +11% 12/07: $1.6B 12/07: $2.7B
  • 21. News Corp. Acknowledges This October 3, 2008 “ Social networking has gotten a disproportionately lower share of digital advertising budgets. If you compare the amount of traffic and the amount of users we have with the portals, most of those guys have been putting 50%, 60% of their budgets in portals, and 10% of their budgets against social network sites.” -- COO Peter Chernin at Merrill Lynch presentation, Sept. 2008
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25. On the Other Hand, Too Much Targeting is Never a Good Thing October 3, 2008
  • 26. October 3, 2008 Mobile Marketing
  • 27. 2008: The First Year Ad Spending Tracks Ahead of Subscribers October 3, 2008 Worldwide Mobile Ad Spending and Subscribers 2006-2012 (millions)
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30. Do Consumers Accept Mobile Phone Advertising? October 3, 2008 Source: Nielsen Co., September 2008
  • 31. Where is the Money? October 3, 2008 Mobile Search Mobile Display Ads Text Messaging Or Here?
  • 32. Or Here? October 3, 2008 Google Android
  • 33. Messaging Dominates Ad Spending October 3, 2008
  • 34. US: 36% of 2008 Mobile Spending October 3, 2008
  • 35.
  • 36. Mobile Marketing: A Two-Way Street October 3, 2008 Take a photo, send it in a multimedia message Receive a picture of a customized Nike shoe Save as wallpaper, send to friends Order personalized shoes directly
  • 37. The iPhone is Changing How Consumers Use the Internet October 3, 2008
  • 38.
  • 39. October 3, 2008 Online Video
  • 40. The Digital Landscape Confounds Many in the Media Biz October 3, 2008 “ We don’t know what’s gonna work. Predicting what the media world is gonna look like in eight years is incredibly daunting. I defy anybody to do that.” - Jeff Zucker, president-CEO, NBC Universal, September 2008
  • 41. Consumers Love Online Video October 3, 2008
  • 42. Half of US Population Watches Online October 3, 2008 Source: eMarketer, February 2008 US Online Video Users, 2006-2012 (% of population)
  • 43. 71% of US Internet users watch online videos at least once a week October 3, 2008 Source: Universal McCann, April 2008 % respondents , Mar. 2008
  • 44. Types of video content people watch monthly: short, short , short October 3, 2008 Source: eMarketer, February 2008 Full TV shows = 27% % total US video viewers, Feb. 2008
  • 45.
  • 46. Video Ads: 2.6% of Online Spend in 2009 October 3, 2008 Source: eMarketer, September 2008 US Online Video Ad Spending (millions and % of Internet total) “ Video is the growth format on the Internet. ” -- David Hallerman, eMarketer 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% 3.4% 4.7% 6.8% 9.8%
  • 47. But Video Won’t Challenge Search or Display -- Yet October 3, 2008 US Online Ad Spending, by Format (billions) 2008 & 2013 Source: eMarketer, August 2008
  • 48.
  • 49. But There Are Significant Hurdles October 3, 2008 Can consumer- generated video be monetized? What ad formats work best? Will consumers skip over ads?
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52. YouTube Experiments with Overlays October 3, 2008 New: Ad runs post-roll (after clip) if user doesn’t click on overlay
  • 53. But Ads on User-Generated Video Trail Consumer Usage October 3, 2008 Source: The Diffusion Group, July 2008
  • 54. Zappos Gets Clicks for Its Video Ad Campaign October 3, 2008 Ad appeared on 50 sites targeted to females Video plays only after user clicks on it Simplicity: Ad served by same company that serves rest of Zappos’ ads Result: 5% clickthrough rate (vs. just 0.3% for banner ads)
  • 55. When It Comes to Video Ads, One Attitude Does Not Fit All October 3, 2008
  • 56. 67% Will See an Online Video Ad At Least 1x a Month in 2008 October 3, 2008
  • 57.
  • 58. Thank you ! Debra Aho Williamson Senior Analyst eMarketer Inc. October 3, 2008