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ISSUE SEVEN                                                                               MARCH/APRIL 2012




        THE LEADING GLOBAL PUBLICATION FOR OPERATORS OF AND INVESTORS IN AIRCRAFT AND ENGINES




     Investing in engines
     Crackdown on OEM control?
     The demographic problem




                                                                      w w w. a v i a t i o n n e w s - o n l i n e . c o m
EDITOR’S LETTER



                              STILL DANCING
                                                           Chuck Prince, chief of Citigroup, famously said that if the music is still playing, you
                                                           have to keep dancing. Although he was referring to banks before the 2008 crash, the
                                                           same could be attributed to original equipment manufacturers today. The US Federal
                                                           Aviation Administration (FAA) is poised to clamp down on engine OEMs seeking to
                                                           control the aftermarket – see the FAA circular dated March 23 regarding its policy
                                                           statement on inappropriate restriction of the use and availability on OEM data. Before
                                                           the FAA and potentially the European Commission take more forceful action, indus-
                                                           try sources say OEMs are seeking to control even more of the aftermarket with their
                                                           new crop of engines, by securing operators into fleet-hour agreements (FHAs). This
                                                           is a savvy move by the OEMs, and one no doubt applauded by their shareholders, but
                                                           it effectively cuts engine lessors out of the market for new engines as they would be
 ISSUE TWO, VOLUME TWO
 March/April 2012
                                                           unable to demand maintenance reserves for those engines under FHAs. This situation
                                                           is not a new concern – this magazine published an article on this issue last year – but
 EDITORIAL TEAM
                                                           the action is ramping up as OEM strategies become clearer and lessors are increasingly
 Victoria Tozer-Pennington
 victoria@aviationnews-online.com                          pushed out of the market. See pages 16-29 for more on this important issue, which has
                                                           the potential to transform the leasing sector and aftermarket.
 Philip Tozer-Pennington
                                                               Soaring fuel bills are crippling airlines around the world, while fuel hedges are not
 philipt@aviationnews-online.com
                                                           performing as hoped due to the recent volatility of oil prices. Still, most airlines agree
 Kaleyesus Bekele
                                                           partial hedging of fuel cost is an essential strategy in managing operating expenses.
 kaleyesus@aviationnews-online.com
                                                           See the results from an expansive survey of airlines about their hedging strategies and
 SUBSCRIPTIONS                                             motivations conducted by Mercatus Energy Advisors on pages 32-35.
 Annual subscription:
                                                               Ethiopian Airlines is one such airline feeling the pain of the high cost of oil, and it has
 £29 (UK/EMEA/US/Canada)
 £42 (Rest of the world)
                                                           been working with its employees to make cost savings to ensure the airline is kept on a
                                                           firm footing with regard to its expansion plans. African editor Kaleyesus Bekele talks to
 Subscription enquiries to:
                                                           Tewolde Gebremariam, chief executive of Ethiopian Airlines on pages 56-59.
 subscriptions@aviationnews-online.com
                                                               Looking east, this issue of Airline Economics also highlights developments in China
 ADVERTISING SALES
                                                           and its bid to develop its own aircraft manufacturing industry (pages 44-47). We also
 John Pennington
                                                           speak to Norman Liu, CEO of GECAS, about why the aircraft lessor remains the world’s
 john@aviationnews-online.com
                                                           number one lessor, according to the 2012 Aviation 100 poll results.
 Philip Tozer
                                                               We hope you enjoy these and the many other features and news analysis pieces in
 philipt@aviationnews-online.com
                                                           this month’s issue. As always, if you have any ideas about future articles or comments
 PRODUCTION AND ONLINE                                     on any of the issues raised, please do not hesitate to get in touch.
 Dino D’Amore
 dino@aviationnews-online.com

 Kathy Alys and Jo Gunston, subeditors

 Cover work by Martin Pope

 DIGITAL ISSUE
 Digital version production by
 Symbian Print Intelligence

 PUBLISHER                                                 Victoria Tozer-Pennington
 Aviation News Ltd                                         Managing director
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 Registered in England & Wales
 Company number: 7351543

 Copyright 2011 Aviation News Ltd
 Airline economics (Print) ISSN 2045-7154
 Airline economics (Online) ISSN 2045-7162

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 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be
 reproduced by any means whatsoever without express
 permission of the Publisher. Although great care has
 been taken in the compilation of Airline Economics,
 Aviation News Ltd does not take any responsibility for
 the views expressed herein.




www.airlineeconomics.co                                                                                               Airline Economics March/April 2012 1
MIDDLE EAST




      Lease in the
          Middle East




     Aircraft and engine leasing in the Middle East is fast
     becoming an attractive area for investment. Monis Hasan
     tracks its development and highlights its potential




W
                      ith many produc-         aircraft, lessors can offer airlines an        advantage in the form of equity support
                      tion slots for new       attractive mix of lease maturities and         through their respective governments.
                      aircraft from Air-       structured payment programmes with             As Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad
                      bus and Boeing           predictable operational cost require-          show, government equity investment can
                      sold out to 2015 and     ments. Fuel prices are high, and capital       still have an impact on today’s market
some even until 2020, leasing aircraft is      markets will continue to be difficult this     structure. For these airlines, government
becoming essential for airlines seeking        year and next, so lessors are becoming a       investment has provided a huge influence
to expand their fleets. Carriers in the         leading choice for sale/leaseback deals or     in their development and will continue to
Middle East are rapidly expanding, and         as direct suppliers for airlines that do not   do so. When the government is the sole
the substantial growth in air traffic in the   have financing or do not have a near-term       shareholder, it provides access to aircraft
region offers lucrative opportunities for      order book to replace older aircraft.          finance at favourable terms. Addition-
aircraft and engine lessors to expand cli-        Access to capital in today’s market         ally, these airlines also have had access to
ent relationships, while also spreading        constitutes a material barrier to entry        export credit facilities from both the US
their portfolio risk.                          into the industry or expansion. Yet air-       Export-Import Bank and the European
   Given the demand for different              lines in the Middle East have a unique         export credit agencies.


60 Airline Economics March/April 2012                                                                            www.airlineeconomics.com
MIDDLE EAST


                                                                                 TABLE 1: TOP 30 OWNERS OF
                                                                                 AACO-REGISTERED AIRCRAFT
                                                                                 Owner                              Aircraft
                                                                                                                    count
                                                                                 Saudi Arabian Airlines             110

                                                                                 EgyptAir                           59
                                                                                 Air Algerie                        52
                                                                                 GECAS                              52
                                                                                 Qatar Airways                      47
                                                                                 ILFC                               43
                                                                                 Royal Air Maroc                    37
                                                                                 Emirates                           36
                                                                                 Tunisair                           32
                                                                                 Syrian Arab Airlines               26
                                                                                 Libyan Airlines                    19
                                                                                 Kuwait Airways                     17
                                                                                 Middle East Airlines               16
                                                                                 ALAFCO                             15
                                                                                 Etihad Airways                     14
                                                                                 The CIT Group Inc                  14
                                                                                 EgyptAir Express                   12
                                                                                 Gulf Air                           12
                                                                                 Oman Air                           12
                                                                                 Yemenia                            12
                                                                                 Afriqiyah Airways                  11
                                                                                 DAE Capital                        11
                                                                                 Government of Kuwait               10
                                                                                 RAM Leasing Ltd                    9
                                                                                 Waha Leasing                       9
                                                                                 Air Arabia                         8
                                                                                 BOC Aviation                       8
                                                                                 Credit Agricole CIB                8
                                                                                 Pembroke Group Ltd                 8
                                                                                 Hong Kong Aviation Capital         7


Aircraft and engine financing       Aircraft and engine financing in the         East include not just airlines but major
                                 Middle East has matured and become             lessors, as shown in Table 1. The largest
in the Middle East has matured   much more sophisticated. Aircraft and          lessors in the region include Gecas, ILFC,
and become much more             engine leasing has grown substantially         Alafco, CIT Group, DAE Capital, RAM
                                 in the region, and has fostered the cre-       Leasing and Waha Capital.
sophisticated. Leasing has       ation of many regionally based aircraft           Table 2 shows the commercial aircraft
grown substantially in the       and engine lessors. In the Middle East,        fleet of AACO airlines with a breakdown
                                 Kuwaiti lessor Alafco is emerging as a         between owned and operating lease air-
region, and has fostered the     big player, with a fleet of 44 aircraft. DAE    craft. There are 942 aircraft registered,
creation of many regionally      Capital has a 41-aircraft portfolio and        with 34% on operating leases. This is in
based aircraft and engine        Abu Dhabi-based Waha Leasing, previ-           line with the global aircraft leasing per-
                                 ously called Oasis International Leasing,      centage of between 35% and 40% and
lessors                          has 24 aircraft in its portfolio. The top 30   shows that the Middle East carriers are
                                 owners of Arab Air Carriers Organization       fairly advanced in their leasing practices.
                                 (AACO) registered aircraft in the Middle       Emirates Airline, with a fleet of 162, has


www.airlineeconomics.com                                                                    Airline Economics March/April 2012 61
MIDDLE EAST


 TABLE 2: AACO AIRCRAFT FLEET AIRLINES: OWNED AND LEASED
 Airline                      Total          Owned             Operating       Lease %
                                                               Leased
 Emirates Airline             162            55                107             66%
 Saudi Arabian Airlines       138            110               28              20%
 Qatar Airways                103            62                41              40%

 EgyptAir                     65             59                6               9%
 Etihad Airways               59             39                20              34%
 Royal Air Maroc              58             44                14              24%
 Air Algerie                  52             52                                0%
 Gulf Air                     35             14                21              60%
 Royal Jordanian              35             8                 27              77%
 Tunisair                     32             32                                0%
 Kuwait Airways               27             17                10              37%
 Syrian Arab Airlines         27             26                1               4%
 Oman Air                     26             15                11              42%
 Air Arabia                   25             8                 17              68%
 Libyan Airlines              20             19                1               5%
 Middle East Airlines         17             17                                0%
 Yemenia                      14             12                2               14%
 Afriqiyah Airways            12             11                1               8%
 EgyptAir Express             12             12                                0%
 Iraqi Airways                10             0                 10              100%
 Sudan Airways                9              7                 2               22%
 Felix Airways                4              2                 2               50%
 Total                        942            621               321             34%



leased 107 of its aircraft, while Saudi Ara-      The more limited customer
bian Airlines, which has a fleet of 138,
leases only 28 aircraft.                          base of the widebody aircraft
    Alafco, DAE Capital and Waha Leas-            makes these assets a little
ing are the big three aircraft lessors based
in the Middle East. Table 3 shows their           less liquid than narrowbody
aircraft portfolios. Of the three, Alafco is      aircraft. Alafco, like any lessor,
the biggest, with 44 aircraft in its portfolio
and plans to double its fleet in the next five
                                                  wants to move its high-value
years. The company was initially estab-           assets quickly and so is more
lished by Kuwait Airways Corporation. It          focused on narrowbody types
has traditionally invested in narrowbody
aircraft such as the A320 and the 737, and        liner aircraft. Over the next five years, the
this will continue to be its strategy going       company plans to own 100 aircraft with
forward. It also placed an order for 50           an average age of six to seven years. At the
A320neo aircraft at the Dubai Air Show            same time, it is also evaluating new aircraft
2011. The more limited customer base of           products from other manufacturers such
the widebody aircraft makes these assets a        as Bombardier and Embraer. The lessor
little less liquid than narrowbody aircraft.      has also expanded its fleet through a num-
Alafco, like any lessor, wants to move its        ber of sale-and-leaseback transactions
high-value assets quickly and therefore is        with various airlines.
more focused on narrowbody types. How-               DAE Capital is the second biggest les-
ever, it made an exception in 2009 when           sor in the region. It initially had plans
the company ordered 22 of 787 Dream-              to be the biggest leasing company in the


62 Airline Economics March/April 2012                                                             www.airlineeconomics.com
MIDDLE EAST


                           TABLE 3: PORTFOLIOS OF TOP 3 LESSORS IN MIDDLE EAST
                                           Operator                    Type                 Aircraft count
                                           Air Europa                  737                  2

                                           Alafco                      A320                 1
                                           Anadolu Jet                 737                  4
                                           Caribbean Airlines          737                  1
                                           China Eastern Airlines      737                  1
                                           China Eastern Airlines      A320                 1
                                           China Southern Airlines     777                  2
                                           Ethiopian Airlines          737                  4
                            ALAFCO         Malaysia Airlines           777                  1
                                           Okay Airways                737                  2
                                           Olympic Air                 A320                 4
                                           Royal Jordanian             A320                 2
                                           Saudi Arabian Airlines      A320                 13
                                           Sky Airlines                737                  2
                                           Transaero Airlines          777                  1
                                           Turkish Airlines            737                  1
                                           Vietjet                     A320                 2
                                           TOTAL                                            44
                                           Anadolu Jet                 737                  2
                                           DAE Capital                 737                  1
                                           easyJet                     A319                 4
                                           Emirates                    777                  3
                                           Emirates                    A330                 8
                                           Garuda Indonesia            737                  8
                            DAE CAPTIAL




                                           IndiGo                      A320                 3
                                           Kingfisher Airlines         A330                 3
                                           Niki                        A320                 1
                                           Philippine Airlines         A319                 2
                                           Spirit Airlines             A319                 1
                                           T'way Airlines              737                  1
                                           Virgin Australia            737                  2
                                           Wizz Air                    A320                 2
                                           TOTAL                                            41
                                           Aeroflot-Russian Airlines   A330                 1
                                           Air Canada                  A321                 1
                                           Air Mekong                  CRJ                  4
                                           Emirates                    A340                 2
                                           Etihad Airways              A330                 6
                            WAHA LEASING




                                           Iran Air                    A320                 1
                                           Jazz Air                    CRJ                  1
                                           Malaysia Airlines           777                  2
                                           Qatar Airways               A330                 1
                                           RAK Airways                 737                  1
                                           Singapore Airlines          A330                 2
                                           Sriwijaya Air               737                  1
                                           Wind Jet                    A320                 1
                                           TOTAL                                            24



www.airlineeconomics.com                                                      Airline Economics March/April 2012 63
MIDDLE EAST

 TABLE 4: AACO AIRCRAFT TYPE – OWNED VS LEASED                     In 2011, there was some
 Aircraft type            Operating     Owned    Total   Lease %   shrinkage in the Middle East
                          lease
 BOEING                                                            market, which has affected
 707                                    2        2       0%        leasing. Aircraft lessors are
 727                                    3        3       0%        still placing aircraft in the
 737                      23            92       115     20%
                                                                   region but at much lower
 747                      2             21       23      9%
 767                      5             4        9       56%
                                                                   lease rates
 777                      111           58       169     66%       Middle East but financing from its par-
 AIRBUS                                                            ent company has been an issue for DAE,
                                                                   which cancelled its entire order book of
 A300                                   2        2       0%
                                                                   Airbus and Boeing aircraft in June and
 A300-600                 4             13       17      24%
                                                                   July 2011 except for a few Boeing 777 and
 A310                     1             10       11      9%        747-8F freighters, which it will now lease
 A319                     10            8        18      56%       to Emirates Airline. The company still has
 A320                     74            99       173     43%       41 aircraft in its leased portfolio, as seen in
 A321                     12            25       37      32%       Table 3, and although it has scaled down its
 A330                     35            96       131     27%
                                                                   ambitions, it still ranks as one of the largest
                                                                   lessors in the region.
 A340                     20            31       51      39%
                                                                       Waha Leasing is part of the Waha Capi-
 A380                     2             18       20      10%       tal group in Abu Dhabi and previously was
 MCDONNELL DOUGLAS                                                 known as Oasis Leasing International. It,
 MD-11                                  4        4       0%        too, has big plans for growth. Its current
 MD-90                                  29       29      0%        portfolio stands at 21 aircraft. In 2009, it
 Embraer                                                           purchased a 50% stake in Aerventure, a
                                                                   Dutch aircraft leasing company with 50
 125                                    1        1       0%
                                                                   A320 aircraft on lease and on order com-
 170                      2             27       29      7%        bined. It also clearly believes in the future
 175                      1             4        5       20%       growth of the aircraft leasing business and
 190                      2             0        2       100%      is investing for growth.
 195                      3             2        5       60%           A look at Table 1 shows the presence of
 BOMBARDIER                                                        major lessors such as Gecas, ILFC, CIT
                                                                   Group, RAM Leasing, BOC Aviation as
 C-130                                  1        1       0%
                                                                   major aircraft lessors in the Middle East.
 CL600                    1             0        1       100%      Many of these big lessors do not have
 CRJ                      8             10       18      44%       an office in the Middle East. Gecas is an
 DHC6                                   4        4       0%        exception, with an office in Dubai.
 DHC8                                   3        3       0%            A look at the most popular leased air-
                                                                   craft in the Middle East shows the 777
 ATR
                                                                   (with 111 aircraft) and the A320 (with 74)
 ATR42                                  6        6       0%        to be the clear favourites. Table 3 shows
 ATR72                                  14       14      0%        a breakdown of the aircraft types, owned
 Others                                                            and leased with AACO carriers. Narrow-
 TU-134                                 4        4       0%        bodies such as A320s and 737s continue to
 YAK-40                                 6        6       0%        the most popular aircraft types with lessors
                                                                   in the Middle East. The 111 777 aircraft is
 IL-76                                  4        4       0%
                                                                   in large part due to Emirates leasing 81 of
 Fokker 27                              7        7       0%        that type. Larger aircraft such as the 777
 Fokker 50                              4        4       0%        and the A380 are more difficult to place for
 Gulfstream II                          1        1       0%        lessors, and are rarely bought for leasing
 Gulfstream IV            1             0        1       100%      purposes. Lessors only acquire the aircraft
 Gulfstream V             3             0        3       100%      types via sale-leaseback transactions.
                                                                       In 2011, there was some shrinkage
 Dassault Falcon          1             2        3       33%
                                                                   in the Middle East market, which has
 King Air                               6        6       0%
                                                                   affected leasing. Aircraft lessors are still
 TOTAL                    321           621      942     34%       placing aircraft in the region but at much


64 Airline Economics March/April 2012                                                  www.airlineeconomics.com
MIDDLE EAST


 TABLE 5: AACO ENGINE FLEET – OWNED AND LEASED                                          sector might be reducing their aviation
 Airline                        Number of       Owned            Operating   % leased
                                                                                        finance activity, but German, Asian, Aus-
                                engines                          leased                 tralian and North American banks will
                                                                                        continue to provide loan financing for US
 Emirates                       400             164              236         59%
                                                                                        dollar aircraft loans. Even so, the amount
 Saudi Arabian Airlines         316             260              56          18%
                                                                                        of aircraft finance availability is decreasing
 Qatar Airways                  214             132              82          38%        at the same time as aircraft deliveries are
 EgyptAir                       136             124              12          9%         increasing to record levels – aircraft les-
 Etihad Airways                 140             100              40          29%        sors could pick up a lot of business over the
 Royal Air Maroc                118             90               28          24%        next few years, but only so long as they can
                                                                                        secure their own funding arrangements.
 Air Algerie                    106             106                          0%
                                                                                            Meanwhile, engine leasing is also
 Tunisair                       64              64                           0%
                                                                                        increasing in the Middle East, and is
 Gulf Air                       78              28               50          64%        providing a practical and cost-effective
 Kuwait Airways                 68              42               26          38%        solution to the spare engine problem.
 Royal Jordanian                78              16               62          79%        This is a commonsense approach by
 Syrian Arab Airlines           75              72               3           4%         airlines to protect their bottom line
                                                                                        by avoiding the extra capital of spare
 Oman Air                       52              30               22          42%
                                                                                        engines on their balance sheets, which
 Air Arabia                     50              16               34          68%
                                                                                        is very high. By leasing engines, airlines
 Libyan Airlines                43              41               2           5%         can release that liquidity, and many
 Middle East Airlines           34              34                           0%         engine lessors offer flexible options of
 Yemenia                        29              25               4           14%        short-, medium- and long-term leases. It
 Afriqiyah Airways              26              22               4           15%        is much cheaper for the airline, as it pays
 EgyptAir Express               24              24                           0%         only a small standby charge for availabil-
                                                                                        ity and then for actual use of the engine.
 Iraqi Airways                  22              0                22          100%
                                                                                        However, engine leasing can be challeng-
 Sudan Airways                  20              16               4           20%        ing and technical. Only the larger players
 Felix Airways                  8               4                4           50%        with the technical expertise have entered
 Total                          2,101           1,410            691         33%        into it, such as the big three engine origi-
                                                                                        nal equipment manufacturers and big
                                                                                        players such as ELFC and Gecas. Also,
 TABLE 6: ENGINE MANUFACTURERS – OWNED VS LEASED                                        Mubadala Aerospace in Abu Dhabi has
 Manufacturer              Total engines Owned               Operating       Leased %   established the region’s first engine leas-
                                                             leased                     ing company, Sanad Aero Solutions.
 GE                        576              322              254             44%            The region has a large new aircraft
 CFM                       574              348              226             39%        order portfolio, along with a spare engines
 RR                        414              308              106             26%        backlog, and a large portion of these will
                                                                                        be financed through sale-and-leaseback
 IAE                       266              186              80              30%
                                                                                        agreements. The market size for spare
 P&W                       137              123              14              10%        engines at Middle East carriers can be
 Engine Alliance           80               72               8               10%        estimated by counting the various aircraft
 Aviadvigatel              24               24                               0%         fleet and order sizes. Sanad Aero Solu-
 Ivchenko Progress         18               18                               0%         tions estimates the global spare engines
 Garrett                   8                5                3               38%        and components market in which it oper-
                                                                                        ates to be as high as $35 billion and, with
 Allison                   4                4                                0%
                                                                                        forecasts of a further 12,000 new aircraft
 Total                     2,101            1,410            691             33%        entering service by 2020, airlines would
                                                                                        have to find $18 billion to support their
lower lease rates. The total bill for deliv-         Engine leasing is also             new spare engines and components.
eries scheduled this year will rise to $95                                                  Table 5 shows the commercial engines
billion and reach $106 billion in 2013,              increasing in the Middle East,     fleet in operation with AACO airlines in
according to Boeing’s forecast. With the             and is providing a practical       the Middle East, which gives an idea about
eurozone crisis spreading, established                                                  how many spare engines could be in use.
European aviation financiers are pulling
                                                     and cost-effective solution to     With a total of 2,101 engines in service as
back from the market due to a lack of capi-          the spare engine problem           of December 2011, 5% spares would be 105
tal and liquidity. French banks that have                                               engines and 10% spares would be 210. Of
historically been lending to the airline                                                these 2,101 commercial engines in service,


www.airlineeconomics.com                                                                         Airline Economics March/April 2012 65
MIDDLE EAST

TABLE 7: COMMERCIAL ENGINE FLEET AACO AIRLINES – OWNED AND LEASED
Airline (Fleet)            Engine                       Total engines Owned    Operating     Lease %
                           manufacturer                                        leased
Emirates (162)                          CFM                        32    0     32            100%
                                        Engine Alliance            80    72    8             10%
                                        GE                         152   30    122           80%
                                        RR                         136   62    74            54%
Saudi Arabian Airlines (138)            CFM                        82    26    56            68%
                                        GE                         104   104
                                        IAE                        58    58
                                        RR                         72    72
Qatar Airways (103)                     GE                         116   58    58            50%
                                        IAE                        76    52    24            32%
                                        P&W                        6     6
                                        RR                         16    16
EgyptAir (65)                           CFM                        54    54
                                        GE                         16    4     12            75%
                                        IAE                        34    34
                                        P&W                        12    12
                                        RR                         20    20
Etihad Airways (59)                     CFM                        2     2
                                        GE                         18    8     10            56%
                                        IAE                        28    2     26            93%
                                        RR                         92    88    4             4%
Royal Air Maroc (56)                    CFM                        96    76    20            21%
                                        GE                         14    6     8             57%
                                        P&W                        8     8
Air Algerie (52)                        Allison                    4     4
                                        CFM                        44    44
                                        GE                         16    16
                                        P&W                        28    28
                                        RR                         14    14
Tunisair (32)                           CFM                        58    58
                                        GE                         6     6
Gulf Air (31)                           CFM                        50    16    34            68%
                                        GE                         8     0     8             100%
                                        RR                         20    12    8             40%
Kuwait Airways (27)                     RR                         6     0     6             100%
                                        CFM                        26    22    4             15%
                                        GE                         26    20    6             23%
                                        P&W                        2     0     2             100%
                                        RR                         8     0     8             100%
Royal Jordanian (27)                    CFM                        16    0     16            100%
                                        GE                         24    16    8             33%
                                        IAE                        30    0     30            100%
                                        P&W                        6     0     6             100%
                                        RR                         2     0     2             100%
Syrian Arab Airlines (27)               Aviadvigatel Perm Motors   24    24
                                        Garrett                    3     0     3             100%
                                        IAE                        12    12
                                        Ivchenko Progress          18    18
                                        P&W                        18    18
Oman Air (26)                           CFM                        30    8     22            73%
                                        GE                         4     4
                                        P&W                        4     4
                                        RR                         14    14
Air Arabia (25)                         CFM                        50    16    34            68%
Libyan Airlines (19)                    CFM                        8     8
                                        Garrett                    3     3
                                        GE                         18    18
                                        P&W                        12    10    2             17%
                                        RR                         2     2
Middle East Airlines (17)               Garrett                    2     2
                                        IAE                        24    24
                                        RR                         8     8
Yemenia (14)                            IAE                        4     4
                                        P&W                        21    21
                                        RR                         4     0     4             100%
Afriqiyah Airways (12)                  CFM                        22    18    4             18%
                                        GE                         4     4
EgyptAir Express (12)                   GE                         24    24
Iraqi Airways (10)                      CFM                        4     0     4             100%
                                        GE                         18    0     18            100%
Sudan Airways (9)                       P&W                        20    16    4             20%
Felix Airways (2)                       GE                         8     4     4             50%



66 Airline Economics March/April 2012                                                 www.airlineeconomics.com
MIDDLE EAST




33% are leased by the airlines versus 67%     The growth of regional aircraft             airlines clearly see the value in engine leas-
airline-owned.                                                                            ing. Sanad’s portfolio consists of 12 spare
    Engines are leased to improve the         and engine leasing companies                engines with Air Berlin (on SLB) and a
use of these expensive spare assets. By       shows the Middle East is                    total of 11 spare engines with Etihad Air-
entering a pooling arrangement with a                                                     ways, including two future deliveries.
lessor, airlines and lessors can increase
                                              maturing in the services                       Table 6 provides numbers for active
the percentage use of an engine, making       offered for commercial aircraft             engines by OEMs and the leased-ver-
more revenue by flying it on an aircraft.                                                  sus-owned breakdown of those engine
If an airline is aware, through mainte-
                                              financing. Access to capital for            numbers. GE, CFM and Rolls Royce
nance planning, that it will need spare       aircraft will be a major issue              dominate as engine OEMs in the region. A
engines, it will manage demand by leas-       for the growth plans of the                 more detailed breakdown of engine OEM
ing them through an engine lessor. Ideally,                                               by airline with owned and leased details is
an airline would not want to keep spare                                                   provided in Table 7 for all AACO airlines.
engines on standby for their maintenance                                                     The growth of regional aircraft and
demands but would rather sign with up an      nent solutions. Clearly, they believe the   engine leasing companies shows the Mid-
engine lessor that could provide a broad      integrated approach of bundling spares      dle East is maturing in the services offered
network of engines across its routes or       with MRO services is a winner and a cor-    for commercial aircraft financing. Access
an engine pooling solution to help it with    nerstone to growth.                         to capital for aircraft will be a major issue
its needs at its base. Another interesting       Recently, Sanad and another engine       for the growth plans of the region’s airlines.
approach is to provide an engine leasing      lessor, ELFC, signed a sale-and-leaseback   Despite the challenge of aircraft financing
pool of spares and components along with      agreement worth $367 million with Eti-      worldwide, the region will continue to find
maintenance repair and overhaul (MRO)         had Airways to finance 16 in-service spare   finance albeit at a higher capital or inter-
services. Mubadala’s MRO network com-         engines and seven future spare engine       est cost. The increased leasing practices of
prising SR Technics, Abu Dhabi Aircraft       deliveries. Sanad will buy and lease back   the AACO airlines and growth of leasing
Technology and Sanad offer those both for     five GE90 and six Rolls Royce Trent 500      businesses point to the fact that financing
engines and components through their          engines on a 10-year operating lease to     might not be a material barrier to market
integrated engine and integrated compo-       Etihad Airways. This does indicate that     entry or expansion for this region.


www.airlineeconomics.com                                                                           Airline Economics March/April 2012 67
DATA


 COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT CMVs AND LEASE RATES – 15TH March 2012
                                                             CMV ($M)                               Dry Lease rate ($m)                Typical seating
 Manufacturer         Model                Oldest     change     Newest     change       Oldest     change     Newest     change       (C+Y)
 AIRBUS               A300-600R            6.33       0.33       15.00      2.51         0.105      0.025      0.200                   267
 AIRBUS               A310-200             1.85                  2.40                    0.070                 0.100                   210
 AIRBUS               A310-300             3.90       0.54       8.90       1.89         0.090      0.010      0.140      0.01         210
 AIRBUS               A318-100             14.00      0.21       24.50      2.63         0.130      0.030      0.200      0.03         108
 AIRBUS               A319-100             12.50      2.24       34.50      0.83         0.130      0.030      0.320      0.03         124
 AIRBUS               A320-200             5.50       0.07       40.00      1.53         0.065      0.055      0.350                   150
 AIRBUS               A321-100             12.00      1.92       19.00      2.2          0.120      0.030      0.220      0.01         185
 AIRBUS               A321-200             21.00      5.40       49.00      0.5          0.200      0.030      0.380      0.05         185
 AIRBUS               A330-200             44.00      4.86       86.00      2.46         0.420      0.050      0.850      0.25         250
 AIRBUS               A330-200F            90.00      4.44       96.40      0.05         0.750      0.020      0.800      0.06
 AIRBUS               A330-300             27.00      2.70       97.00      1.84         0.280      0.190      0.900      0.24         300
 AIRBUS               A340-200             15.00      0.86       20.00      2.09         0.300      0.070      0.350      0.64         280
 AIRBUS               A340-300             18.00      0.97       70.00      2.41         0.230      0.020      0.600      0.09         295
 AIRBUS               A340-500             55.00      2.82       97.00      14.94        0.490      0.010      0.850      0.9          280
 AIRBUS               A340-600             58.00      5.33       104.00     8.55         0.530      0.030      0.920      0.15         350
 AIRBUS               A380-800             145.00     14.76      195.00     15           1.450      0.350      1.850      0.42         525
 BOEING               717-200              7.75                  11.50      3.1          0.100                 0.150      0.01         117
 BOEING               737-300              2.00       0.97       6.80       0.94         0.040      0.040      0.110      0.03         134
 BOEING               737-400              4.00       0.39       8.00       1.08         0.075      0.050      0.120      0.01         144
 BOEING               737-500              2.50       1.09       6.00       1.57         0.050                 0.090      0.02         104
 BOEING               737-600              11.00      3.03       20.00      2.75         0.135      0.015      0.200                   103
 BOEING               737-700              16.20      1.31       35.75      2.68         0.160      0.050      0.330      0.01         134
 BOEING               737-800              20.00      1.10       44.50      5.07         0.220      0.030      0.360      0.04         160
 BOEING               737-900              19.80      0.70       24.00      0.11         0.170      0.040      0.230      0.01         180
 BOEING               737-900ER            33.50      3.52       47.40      3.85         0.320      0.050      0.400      0.02         215
 BOEING               747-400              18.00      0.69       59.50      2.25         0.300      0.010      0.670      0.01         412
 BOEING               747-8F                                     185.00     9.25         1.400      0.050      1.550      0.15         188
 BOEING               757-200              6.00       0.20       22.50      2.13         0.100                 0.230      0.04         158
 BOEING               767-200ER            4.00       0.25       14.50      2.25         0.120      0.040      0.280      0.09         190
 BOEING               767-300ER            11.00      2.28       61.50      9.41         0.180      0.050      0.500      0.02         313
 BOEING               767-300F             30.00      0.12       73.52      0.86         0.340      0.810      0.580      0.01
 BOEING               777-200              24.00                 57.00                   0.350                 0.450                   313
 BOEING               777-200ER            47.70      4.72       118.00     9.03         0.500      0.080      0.990      0.13         313
 BOEING               777-200LR            91.00      11.71      136.50     3.28         0.800      0.080      1.200      0.25         313
 BOEING               777F                 140.00     10.80      160.00     2.4          1.200      0.020      1.400      0.15
 BOEING               777-300              47.75      3.38       78.00      7.64         0.450      0.120      0.700      0.06         382
 BOEING               777-300ER            96.50      6.33       155.00     0.3          0.850      0.500      1.400      0.35         350
 BOEING               787-8                105.00     12.40      110.00     7.44         0.950      0.150      1.100      0.21         243
 BOEING MD            MD11                 10.00      3.79       17.00      2.31         0.150      0.100      0.240      0.07         285
 BOEING MD            MD81                 0.50       1.00       1.20       0.4          0.025      0.005      0.035      0.005        144
 BOEING MD            MD82                 0.70       0.93       2.20       0.03         0.025      0.050      0.048      0.008        144
 BOEING MD            MD83                 1.30       0.05       3.25       0.11         0.040      0.100      0.060      0.02         144
 BOEING MD            MD87                 1.70       0.20       2.20                    0.030                 0.042      0.001        109
 BOEING MD            MD88                 1.90       0.41       3.20       0.31         0.400                 0.050      0.01         144
 BOEING MD            MD90                 5.00       0.98       6.00       0.53         0.080                 0.100      0.01         144
 BOMBARDIER           Q400                 10.00                 20.00                   0.125                 0.200                   70
 EMBRAER              E190 LR              20.00                 30.20                   0.200                 0.270                   98
 EMBRAER              E195 LR              22.90                 31.70                   0.210                 0.290                   108
                                                                                                                                                         AE Research.




 ATR                  ATR 42-500           4.30                  14.30                   0.065                 0.135                   48
 ATR                  ATR 72-500           6.75                  18.10                   0.085                 0.180                   70
 ATR                  ATR 42-600                                 14.95                                         0.145                   48
 ATR                  ATR 72-600                                 19.20                                         0.190                   70

Note: These values are based on the lowest prices seen in market of late showing change over six months from 01/10/11 to 01/03/12.
The change in red represents a decrease while green is an increase from the last known lowest price paid. These values shown here in this issue are
now market averages. They are in fact the lowest known prices paid on a deal involving each type. Where no change is shown we have either not been
able to gain price on a transaction during either this period or the last six months ago. The value changes on some aircraft represent manufacturer
reductions due to reporations on deals where we know of pricing. The general trend is one of lower prices from six months ago, mainly during the last
calender quarter of 2011, as always it is very important to remember that the rates listed are set by the most competitive deal in the market.



68 Airline Economics March/April 2012                                                                                       www.airlineeconomics.com

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Lease In The Middle East Aircaft & Engine Leasing

  • 1. ISSUE SEVEN MARCH/APRIL 2012 THE LEADING GLOBAL PUBLICATION FOR OPERATORS OF AND INVESTORS IN AIRCRAFT AND ENGINES Investing in engines Crackdown on OEM control? The demographic problem w w w. a v i a t i o n n e w s - o n l i n e . c o m
  • 2. EDITOR’S LETTER STILL DANCING Chuck Prince, chief of Citigroup, famously said that if the music is still playing, you have to keep dancing. Although he was referring to banks before the 2008 crash, the same could be attributed to original equipment manufacturers today. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is poised to clamp down on engine OEMs seeking to control the aftermarket – see the FAA circular dated March 23 regarding its policy statement on inappropriate restriction of the use and availability on OEM data. Before the FAA and potentially the European Commission take more forceful action, indus- try sources say OEMs are seeking to control even more of the aftermarket with their new crop of engines, by securing operators into fleet-hour agreements (FHAs). This is a savvy move by the OEMs, and one no doubt applauded by their shareholders, but it effectively cuts engine lessors out of the market for new engines as they would be ISSUE TWO, VOLUME TWO March/April 2012 unable to demand maintenance reserves for those engines under FHAs. This situation is not a new concern – this magazine published an article on this issue last year – but EDITORIAL TEAM the action is ramping up as OEM strategies become clearer and lessors are increasingly Victoria Tozer-Pennington victoria@aviationnews-online.com pushed out of the market. See pages 16-29 for more on this important issue, which has the potential to transform the leasing sector and aftermarket. Philip Tozer-Pennington Soaring fuel bills are crippling airlines around the world, while fuel hedges are not philipt@aviationnews-online.com performing as hoped due to the recent volatility of oil prices. Still, most airlines agree Kaleyesus Bekele partial hedging of fuel cost is an essential strategy in managing operating expenses. kaleyesus@aviationnews-online.com See the results from an expansive survey of airlines about their hedging strategies and SUBSCRIPTIONS motivations conducted by Mercatus Energy Advisors on pages 32-35. Annual subscription: Ethiopian Airlines is one such airline feeling the pain of the high cost of oil, and it has £29 (UK/EMEA/US/Canada) £42 (Rest of the world) been working with its employees to make cost savings to ensure the airline is kept on a firm footing with regard to its expansion plans. African editor Kaleyesus Bekele talks to Subscription enquiries to: Tewolde Gebremariam, chief executive of Ethiopian Airlines on pages 56-59. subscriptions@aviationnews-online.com Looking east, this issue of Airline Economics also highlights developments in China ADVERTISING SALES and its bid to develop its own aircraft manufacturing industry (pages 44-47). We also John Pennington speak to Norman Liu, CEO of GECAS, about why the aircraft lessor remains the world’s john@aviationnews-online.com number one lessor, according to the 2012 Aviation 100 poll results. Philip Tozer We hope you enjoy these and the many other features and news analysis pieces in philipt@aviationnews-online.com this month’s issue. As always, if you have any ideas about future articles or comments PRODUCTION AND ONLINE on any of the issues raised, please do not hesitate to get in touch. Dino D’Amore dino@aviationnews-online.com Kathy Alys and Jo Gunston, subeditors Cover work by Martin Pope DIGITAL ISSUE Digital version production by Symbian Print Intelligence PUBLISHER Victoria Tozer-Pennington Aviation News Ltd Managing director Suite 16745, Lower Ground Floor, 145-157 St John Street, London, EC1V 4PW Registered in England & Wales Company number: 7351543 Copyright 2011 Aviation News Ltd Airline economics (Print) ISSN 2045-7154 Airline economics (Online) ISSN 2045-7162 Printed in England through Ben Chater Printing All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced by any means whatsoever without express permission of the Publisher. Although great care has been taken in the compilation of Airline Economics, Aviation News Ltd does not take any responsibility for the views expressed herein. www.airlineeconomics.co Airline Economics March/April 2012 1
  • 3. MIDDLE EAST Lease in the Middle East Aircraft and engine leasing in the Middle East is fast becoming an attractive area for investment. Monis Hasan tracks its development and highlights its potential W ith many produc- aircraft, lessors can offer airlines an advantage in the form of equity support tion slots for new attractive mix of lease maturities and through their respective governments. aircraft from Air- structured payment programmes with As Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad bus and Boeing predictable operational cost require- show, government equity investment can sold out to 2015 and ments. Fuel prices are high, and capital still have an impact on today’s market some even until 2020, leasing aircraft is markets will continue to be difficult this structure. For these airlines, government becoming essential for airlines seeking year and next, so lessors are becoming a investment has provided a huge influence to expand their fleets. Carriers in the leading choice for sale/leaseback deals or in their development and will continue to Middle East are rapidly expanding, and as direct suppliers for airlines that do not do so. When the government is the sole the substantial growth in air traffic in the have financing or do not have a near-term shareholder, it provides access to aircraft region offers lucrative opportunities for order book to replace older aircraft. finance at favourable terms. Addition- aircraft and engine lessors to expand cli- Access to capital in today’s market ally, these airlines also have had access to ent relationships, while also spreading constitutes a material barrier to entry export credit facilities from both the US their portfolio risk. into the industry or expansion. Yet air- Export-Import Bank and the European Given the demand for different lines in the Middle East have a unique export credit agencies. 60 Airline Economics March/April 2012 www.airlineeconomics.com
  • 4. MIDDLE EAST TABLE 1: TOP 30 OWNERS OF AACO-REGISTERED AIRCRAFT Owner Aircraft count Saudi Arabian Airlines 110 EgyptAir 59 Air Algerie 52 GECAS 52 Qatar Airways 47 ILFC 43 Royal Air Maroc 37 Emirates 36 Tunisair 32 Syrian Arab Airlines 26 Libyan Airlines 19 Kuwait Airways 17 Middle East Airlines 16 ALAFCO 15 Etihad Airways 14 The CIT Group Inc 14 EgyptAir Express 12 Gulf Air 12 Oman Air 12 Yemenia 12 Afriqiyah Airways 11 DAE Capital 11 Government of Kuwait 10 RAM Leasing Ltd 9 Waha Leasing 9 Air Arabia 8 BOC Aviation 8 Credit Agricole CIB 8 Pembroke Group Ltd 8 Hong Kong Aviation Capital 7 Aircraft and engine financing Aircraft and engine financing in the East include not just airlines but major Middle East has matured and become lessors, as shown in Table 1. The largest in the Middle East has matured much more sophisticated. Aircraft and lessors in the region include Gecas, ILFC, and become much more engine leasing has grown substantially Alafco, CIT Group, DAE Capital, RAM in the region, and has fostered the cre- Leasing and Waha Capital. sophisticated. Leasing has ation of many regionally based aircraft Table 2 shows the commercial aircraft grown substantially in the and engine lessors. In the Middle East, fleet of AACO airlines with a breakdown Kuwaiti lessor Alafco is emerging as a between owned and operating lease air- region, and has fostered the big player, with a fleet of 44 aircraft. DAE craft. There are 942 aircraft registered, creation of many regionally Capital has a 41-aircraft portfolio and with 34% on operating leases. This is in based aircraft and engine Abu Dhabi-based Waha Leasing, previ- line with the global aircraft leasing per- ously called Oasis International Leasing, centage of between 35% and 40% and lessors has 24 aircraft in its portfolio. The top 30 shows that the Middle East carriers are owners of Arab Air Carriers Organization fairly advanced in their leasing practices. (AACO) registered aircraft in the Middle Emirates Airline, with a fleet of 162, has www.airlineeconomics.com Airline Economics March/April 2012 61
  • 5. MIDDLE EAST TABLE 2: AACO AIRCRAFT FLEET AIRLINES: OWNED AND LEASED Airline Total Owned Operating Lease % Leased Emirates Airline 162 55 107 66% Saudi Arabian Airlines 138 110 28 20% Qatar Airways 103 62 41 40% EgyptAir 65 59 6 9% Etihad Airways 59 39 20 34% Royal Air Maroc 58 44 14 24% Air Algerie 52 52 0% Gulf Air 35 14 21 60% Royal Jordanian 35 8 27 77% Tunisair 32 32 0% Kuwait Airways 27 17 10 37% Syrian Arab Airlines 27 26 1 4% Oman Air 26 15 11 42% Air Arabia 25 8 17 68% Libyan Airlines 20 19 1 5% Middle East Airlines 17 17 0% Yemenia 14 12 2 14% Afriqiyah Airways 12 11 1 8% EgyptAir Express 12 12 0% Iraqi Airways 10 0 10 100% Sudan Airways 9 7 2 22% Felix Airways 4 2 2 50% Total 942 621 321 34% leased 107 of its aircraft, while Saudi Ara- The more limited customer bian Airlines, which has a fleet of 138, leases only 28 aircraft. base of the widebody aircraft Alafco, DAE Capital and Waha Leas- makes these assets a little ing are the big three aircraft lessors based in the Middle East. Table 3 shows their less liquid than narrowbody aircraft portfolios. Of the three, Alafco is aircraft. Alafco, like any lessor, the biggest, with 44 aircraft in its portfolio and plans to double its fleet in the next five wants to move its high-value years. The company was initially estab- assets quickly and so is more lished by Kuwait Airways Corporation. It focused on narrowbody types has traditionally invested in narrowbody aircraft such as the A320 and the 737, and liner aircraft. Over the next five years, the this will continue to be its strategy going company plans to own 100 aircraft with forward. It also placed an order for 50 an average age of six to seven years. At the A320neo aircraft at the Dubai Air Show same time, it is also evaluating new aircraft 2011. The more limited customer base of products from other manufacturers such the widebody aircraft makes these assets a as Bombardier and Embraer. The lessor little less liquid than narrowbody aircraft. has also expanded its fleet through a num- Alafco, like any lessor, wants to move its ber of sale-and-leaseback transactions high-value assets quickly and therefore is with various airlines. more focused on narrowbody types. How- DAE Capital is the second biggest les- ever, it made an exception in 2009 when sor in the region. It initially had plans the company ordered 22 of 787 Dream- to be the biggest leasing company in the 62 Airline Economics March/April 2012 www.airlineeconomics.com
  • 6. MIDDLE EAST TABLE 3: PORTFOLIOS OF TOP 3 LESSORS IN MIDDLE EAST Operator Type Aircraft count Air Europa 737 2 Alafco A320 1 Anadolu Jet 737 4 Caribbean Airlines 737 1 China Eastern Airlines 737 1 China Eastern Airlines A320 1 China Southern Airlines 777 2 Ethiopian Airlines 737 4 ALAFCO Malaysia Airlines 777 1 Okay Airways 737 2 Olympic Air A320 4 Royal Jordanian A320 2 Saudi Arabian Airlines A320 13 Sky Airlines 737 2 Transaero Airlines 777 1 Turkish Airlines 737 1 Vietjet A320 2 TOTAL 44 Anadolu Jet 737 2 DAE Capital 737 1 easyJet A319 4 Emirates 777 3 Emirates A330 8 Garuda Indonesia 737 8 DAE CAPTIAL IndiGo A320 3 Kingfisher Airlines A330 3 Niki A320 1 Philippine Airlines A319 2 Spirit Airlines A319 1 T'way Airlines 737 1 Virgin Australia 737 2 Wizz Air A320 2 TOTAL 41 Aeroflot-Russian Airlines A330 1 Air Canada A321 1 Air Mekong CRJ 4 Emirates A340 2 Etihad Airways A330 6 WAHA LEASING Iran Air A320 1 Jazz Air CRJ 1 Malaysia Airlines 777 2 Qatar Airways A330 1 RAK Airways 737 1 Singapore Airlines A330 2 Sriwijaya Air 737 1 Wind Jet A320 1 TOTAL 24 www.airlineeconomics.com Airline Economics March/April 2012 63
  • 7. MIDDLE EAST TABLE 4: AACO AIRCRAFT TYPE – OWNED VS LEASED In 2011, there was some Aircraft type Operating Owned Total Lease % shrinkage in the Middle East lease BOEING market, which has affected 707 2 2 0% leasing. Aircraft lessors are 727 3 3 0% still placing aircraft in the 737 23 92 115 20% region but at much lower 747 2 21 23 9% 767 5 4 9 56% lease rates 777 111 58 169 66% Middle East but financing from its par- AIRBUS ent company has been an issue for DAE, which cancelled its entire order book of A300 2 2 0% Airbus and Boeing aircraft in June and A300-600 4 13 17 24% July 2011 except for a few Boeing 777 and A310 1 10 11 9% 747-8F freighters, which it will now lease A319 10 8 18 56% to Emirates Airline. The company still has A320 74 99 173 43% 41 aircraft in its leased portfolio, as seen in A321 12 25 37 32% Table 3, and although it has scaled down its A330 35 96 131 27% ambitions, it still ranks as one of the largest lessors in the region. A340 20 31 51 39% Waha Leasing is part of the Waha Capi- A380 2 18 20 10% tal group in Abu Dhabi and previously was MCDONNELL DOUGLAS known as Oasis Leasing International. It, MD-11 4 4 0% too, has big plans for growth. Its current MD-90 29 29 0% portfolio stands at 21 aircraft. In 2009, it Embraer purchased a 50% stake in Aerventure, a Dutch aircraft leasing company with 50 125 1 1 0% A320 aircraft on lease and on order com- 170 2 27 29 7% bined. It also clearly believes in the future 175 1 4 5 20% growth of the aircraft leasing business and 190 2 0 2 100% is investing for growth. 195 3 2 5 60% A look at Table 1 shows the presence of BOMBARDIER major lessors such as Gecas, ILFC, CIT Group, RAM Leasing, BOC Aviation as C-130 1 1 0% major aircraft lessors in the Middle East. CL600 1 0 1 100% Many of these big lessors do not have CRJ 8 10 18 44% an office in the Middle East. Gecas is an DHC6 4 4 0% exception, with an office in Dubai. DHC8 3 3 0% A look at the most popular leased air- craft in the Middle East shows the 777 ATR (with 111 aircraft) and the A320 (with 74) ATR42 6 6 0% to be the clear favourites. Table 3 shows ATR72 14 14 0% a breakdown of the aircraft types, owned Others and leased with AACO carriers. Narrow- TU-134 4 4 0% bodies such as A320s and 737s continue to YAK-40 6 6 0% the most popular aircraft types with lessors in the Middle East. The 111 777 aircraft is IL-76 4 4 0% in large part due to Emirates leasing 81 of Fokker 27 7 7 0% that type. Larger aircraft such as the 777 Fokker 50 4 4 0% and the A380 are more difficult to place for Gulfstream II 1 1 0% lessors, and are rarely bought for leasing Gulfstream IV 1 0 1 100% purposes. Lessors only acquire the aircraft Gulfstream V 3 0 3 100% types via sale-leaseback transactions. In 2011, there was some shrinkage Dassault Falcon 1 2 3 33% in the Middle East market, which has King Air 6 6 0% affected leasing. Aircraft lessors are still TOTAL 321 621 942 34% placing aircraft in the region but at much 64 Airline Economics March/April 2012 www.airlineeconomics.com
  • 8. MIDDLE EAST TABLE 5: AACO ENGINE FLEET – OWNED AND LEASED sector might be reducing their aviation Airline Number of Owned Operating % leased finance activity, but German, Asian, Aus- engines leased tralian and North American banks will continue to provide loan financing for US Emirates 400 164 236 59% dollar aircraft loans. Even so, the amount Saudi Arabian Airlines 316 260 56 18% of aircraft finance availability is decreasing Qatar Airways 214 132 82 38% at the same time as aircraft deliveries are EgyptAir 136 124 12 9% increasing to record levels – aircraft les- Etihad Airways 140 100 40 29% sors could pick up a lot of business over the Royal Air Maroc 118 90 28 24% next few years, but only so long as they can secure their own funding arrangements. Air Algerie 106 106 0% Meanwhile, engine leasing is also Tunisair 64 64 0% increasing in the Middle East, and is Gulf Air 78 28 50 64% providing a practical and cost-effective Kuwait Airways 68 42 26 38% solution to the spare engine problem. Royal Jordanian 78 16 62 79% This is a commonsense approach by Syrian Arab Airlines 75 72 3 4% airlines to protect their bottom line by avoiding the extra capital of spare Oman Air 52 30 22 42% engines on their balance sheets, which Air Arabia 50 16 34 68% is very high. By leasing engines, airlines Libyan Airlines 43 41 2 5% can release that liquidity, and many Middle East Airlines 34 34 0% engine lessors offer flexible options of Yemenia 29 25 4 14% short-, medium- and long-term leases. It Afriqiyah Airways 26 22 4 15% is much cheaper for the airline, as it pays EgyptAir Express 24 24 0% only a small standby charge for availabil- ity and then for actual use of the engine. Iraqi Airways 22 0 22 100% However, engine leasing can be challeng- Sudan Airways 20 16 4 20% ing and technical. Only the larger players Felix Airways 8 4 4 50% with the technical expertise have entered Total 2,101 1,410 691 33% into it, such as the big three engine origi- nal equipment manufacturers and big players such as ELFC and Gecas. Also, TABLE 6: ENGINE MANUFACTURERS – OWNED VS LEASED Mubadala Aerospace in Abu Dhabi has Manufacturer Total engines Owned Operating Leased % established the region’s first engine leas- leased ing company, Sanad Aero Solutions. GE 576 322 254 44% The region has a large new aircraft CFM 574 348 226 39% order portfolio, along with a spare engines RR 414 308 106 26% backlog, and a large portion of these will be financed through sale-and-leaseback IAE 266 186 80 30% agreements. The market size for spare P&W 137 123 14 10% engines at Middle East carriers can be Engine Alliance 80 72 8 10% estimated by counting the various aircraft Aviadvigatel 24 24 0% fleet and order sizes. Sanad Aero Solu- Ivchenko Progress 18 18 0% tions estimates the global spare engines Garrett 8 5 3 38% and components market in which it oper- ates to be as high as $35 billion and, with Allison 4 4 0% forecasts of a further 12,000 new aircraft Total 2,101 1,410 691 33% entering service by 2020, airlines would have to find $18 billion to support their lower lease rates. The total bill for deliv- Engine leasing is also new spare engines and components. eries scheduled this year will rise to $95 Table 5 shows the commercial engines billion and reach $106 billion in 2013, increasing in the Middle East, fleet in operation with AACO airlines in according to Boeing’s forecast. With the and is providing a practical the Middle East, which gives an idea about eurozone crisis spreading, established how many spare engines could be in use. European aviation financiers are pulling and cost-effective solution to With a total of 2,101 engines in service as back from the market due to a lack of capi- the spare engine problem of December 2011, 5% spares would be 105 tal and liquidity. French banks that have engines and 10% spares would be 210. Of historically been lending to the airline these 2,101 commercial engines in service, www.airlineeconomics.com Airline Economics March/April 2012 65
  • 9. MIDDLE EAST TABLE 7: COMMERCIAL ENGINE FLEET AACO AIRLINES – OWNED AND LEASED Airline (Fleet) Engine Total engines Owned Operating Lease % manufacturer leased Emirates (162) CFM 32 0 32 100% Engine Alliance 80 72 8 10% GE 152 30 122 80% RR 136 62 74 54% Saudi Arabian Airlines (138) CFM 82 26 56 68% GE 104 104 IAE 58 58 RR 72 72 Qatar Airways (103) GE 116 58 58 50% IAE 76 52 24 32% P&W 6 6 RR 16 16 EgyptAir (65) CFM 54 54 GE 16 4 12 75% IAE 34 34 P&W 12 12 RR 20 20 Etihad Airways (59) CFM 2 2 GE 18 8 10 56% IAE 28 2 26 93% RR 92 88 4 4% Royal Air Maroc (56) CFM 96 76 20 21% GE 14 6 8 57% P&W 8 8 Air Algerie (52) Allison 4 4 CFM 44 44 GE 16 16 P&W 28 28 RR 14 14 Tunisair (32) CFM 58 58 GE 6 6 Gulf Air (31) CFM 50 16 34 68% GE 8 0 8 100% RR 20 12 8 40% Kuwait Airways (27) RR 6 0 6 100% CFM 26 22 4 15% GE 26 20 6 23% P&W 2 0 2 100% RR 8 0 8 100% Royal Jordanian (27) CFM 16 0 16 100% GE 24 16 8 33% IAE 30 0 30 100% P&W 6 0 6 100% RR 2 0 2 100% Syrian Arab Airlines (27) Aviadvigatel Perm Motors 24 24 Garrett 3 0 3 100% IAE 12 12 Ivchenko Progress 18 18 P&W 18 18 Oman Air (26) CFM 30 8 22 73% GE 4 4 P&W 4 4 RR 14 14 Air Arabia (25) CFM 50 16 34 68% Libyan Airlines (19) CFM 8 8 Garrett 3 3 GE 18 18 P&W 12 10 2 17% RR 2 2 Middle East Airlines (17) Garrett 2 2 IAE 24 24 RR 8 8 Yemenia (14) IAE 4 4 P&W 21 21 RR 4 0 4 100% Afriqiyah Airways (12) CFM 22 18 4 18% GE 4 4 EgyptAir Express (12) GE 24 24 Iraqi Airways (10) CFM 4 0 4 100% GE 18 0 18 100% Sudan Airways (9) P&W 20 16 4 20% Felix Airways (2) GE 8 4 4 50% 66 Airline Economics March/April 2012 www.airlineeconomics.com
  • 10. MIDDLE EAST 33% are leased by the airlines versus 67% The growth of regional aircraft airlines clearly see the value in engine leas- airline-owned. ing. Sanad’s portfolio consists of 12 spare Engines are leased to improve the and engine leasing companies engines with Air Berlin (on SLB) and a use of these expensive spare assets. By shows the Middle East is total of 11 spare engines with Etihad Air- entering a pooling arrangement with a ways, including two future deliveries. lessor, airlines and lessors can increase maturing in the services Table 6 provides numbers for active the percentage use of an engine, making offered for commercial aircraft engines by OEMs and the leased-ver- more revenue by flying it on an aircraft. sus-owned breakdown of those engine If an airline is aware, through mainte- financing. Access to capital for numbers. GE, CFM and Rolls Royce nance planning, that it will need spare aircraft will be a major issue dominate as engine OEMs in the region. A engines, it will manage demand by leas- for the growth plans of the more detailed breakdown of engine OEM ing them through an engine lessor. Ideally, by airline with owned and leased details is an airline would not want to keep spare provided in Table 7 for all AACO airlines. engines on standby for their maintenance The growth of regional aircraft and demands but would rather sign with up an nent solutions. Clearly, they believe the engine leasing companies shows the Mid- engine lessor that could provide a broad integrated approach of bundling spares dle East is maturing in the services offered network of engines across its routes or with MRO services is a winner and a cor- for commercial aircraft financing. Access an engine pooling solution to help it with nerstone to growth. to capital for aircraft will be a major issue its needs at its base. Another interesting Recently, Sanad and another engine for the growth plans of the region’s airlines. approach is to provide an engine leasing lessor, ELFC, signed a sale-and-leaseback Despite the challenge of aircraft financing pool of spares and components along with agreement worth $367 million with Eti- worldwide, the region will continue to find maintenance repair and overhaul (MRO) had Airways to finance 16 in-service spare finance albeit at a higher capital or inter- services. Mubadala’s MRO network com- engines and seven future spare engine est cost. The increased leasing practices of prising SR Technics, Abu Dhabi Aircraft deliveries. Sanad will buy and lease back the AACO airlines and growth of leasing Technology and Sanad offer those both for five GE90 and six Rolls Royce Trent 500 businesses point to the fact that financing engines and components through their engines on a 10-year operating lease to might not be a material barrier to market integrated engine and integrated compo- Etihad Airways. This does indicate that entry or expansion for this region. www.airlineeconomics.com Airline Economics March/April 2012 67
  • 11. DATA COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT CMVs AND LEASE RATES – 15TH March 2012 CMV ($M) Dry Lease rate ($m) Typical seating Manufacturer Model Oldest change Newest change Oldest change Newest change (C+Y) AIRBUS A300-600R 6.33 0.33 15.00 2.51 0.105 0.025 0.200 267 AIRBUS A310-200 1.85 2.40 0.070 0.100 210 AIRBUS A310-300 3.90 0.54 8.90 1.89 0.090 0.010 0.140 0.01 210 AIRBUS A318-100 14.00 0.21 24.50 2.63 0.130 0.030 0.200 0.03 108 AIRBUS A319-100 12.50 2.24 34.50 0.83 0.130 0.030 0.320 0.03 124 AIRBUS A320-200 5.50 0.07 40.00 1.53 0.065 0.055 0.350 150 AIRBUS A321-100 12.00 1.92 19.00 2.2 0.120 0.030 0.220 0.01 185 AIRBUS A321-200 21.00 5.40 49.00 0.5 0.200 0.030 0.380 0.05 185 AIRBUS A330-200 44.00 4.86 86.00 2.46 0.420 0.050 0.850 0.25 250 AIRBUS A330-200F 90.00 4.44 96.40 0.05 0.750 0.020 0.800 0.06 AIRBUS A330-300 27.00 2.70 97.00 1.84 0.280 0.190 0.900 0.24 300 AIRBUS A340-200 15.00 0.86 20.00 2.09 0.300 0.070 0.350 0.64 280 AIRBUS A340-300 18.00 0.97 70.00 2.41 0.230 0.020 0.600 0.09 295 AIRBUS A340-500 55.00 2.82 97.00 14.94 0.490 0.010 0.850 0.9 280 AIRBUS A340-600 58.00 5.33 104.00 8.55 0.530 0.030 0.920 0.15 350 AIRBUS A380-800 145.00 14.76 195.00 15 1.450 0.350 1.850 0.42 525 BOEING 717-200 7.75 11.50 3.1 0.100 0.150 0.01 117 BOEING 737-300 2.00 0.97 6.80 0.94 0.040 0.040 0.110 0.03 134 BOEING 737-400 4.00 0.39 8.00 1.08 0.075 0.050 0.120 0.01 144 BOEING 737-500 2.50 1.09 6.00 1.57 0.050 0.090 0.02 104 BOEING 737-600 11.00 3.03 20.00 2.75 0.135 0.015 0.200 103 BOEING 737-700 16.20 1.31 35.75 2.68 0.160 0.050 0.330 0.01 134 BOEING 737-800 20.00 1.10 44.50 5.07 0.220 0.030 0.360 0.04 160 BOEING 737-900 19.80 0.70 24.00 0.11 0.170 0.040 0.230 0.01 180 BOEING 737-900ER 33.50 3.52 47.40 3.85 0.320 0.050 0.400 0.02 215 BOEING 747-400 18.00 0.69 59.50 2.25 0.300 0.010 0.670 0.01 412 BOEING 747-8F 185.00 9.25 1.400 0.050 1.550 0.15 188 BOEING 757-200 6.00 0.20 22.50 2.13 0.100 0.230 0.04 158 BOEING 767-200ER 4.00 0.25 14.50 2.25 0.120 0.040 0.280 0.09 190 BOEING 767-300ER 11.00 2.28 61.50 9.41 0.180 0.050 0.500 0.02 313 BOEING 767-300F 30.00 0.12 73.52 0.86 0.340 0.810 0.580 0.01 BOEING 777-200 24.00 57.00 0.350 0.450 313 BOEING 777-200ER 47.70 4.72 118.00 9.03 0.500 0.080 0.990 0.13 313 BOEING 777-200LR 91.00 11.71 136.50 3.28 0.800 0.080 1.200 0.25 313 BOEING 777F 140.00 10.80 160.00 2.4 1.200 0.020 1.400 0.15 BOEING 777-300 47.75 3.38 78.00 7.64 0.450 0.120 0.700 0.06 382 BOEING 777-300ER 96.50 6.33 155.00 0.3 0.850 0.500 1.400 0.35 350 BOEING 787-8 105.00 12.40 110.00 7.44 0.950 0.150 1.100 0.21 243 BOEING MD MD11 10.00 3.79 17.00 2.31 0.150 0.100 0.240 0.07 285 BOEING MD MD81 0.50 1.00 1.20 0.4 0.025 0.005 0.035 0.005 144 BOEING MD MD82 0.70 0.93 2.20 0.03 0.025 0.050 0.048 0.008 144 BOEING MD MD83 1.30 0.05 3.25 0.11 0.040 0.100 0.060 0.02 144 BOEING MD MD87 1.70 0.20 2.20 0.030 0.042 0.001 109 BOEING MD MD88 1.90 0.41 3.20 0.31 0.400 0.050 0.01 144 BOEING MD MD90 5.00 0.98 6.00 0.53 0.080 0.100 0.01 144 BOMBARDIER Q400 10.00 20.00 0.125 0.200 70 EMBRAER E190 LR 20.00 30.20 0.200 0.270 98 EMBRAER E195 LR 22.90 31.70 0.210 0.290 108 AE Research. ATR ATR 42-500 4.30 14.30 0.065 0.135 48 ATR ATR 72-500 6.75 18.10 0.085 0.180 70 ATR ATR 42-600 14.95 0.145 48 ATR ATR 72-600 19.20 0.190 70 Note: These values are based on the lowest prices seen in market of late showing change over six months from 01/10/11 to 01/03/12. The change in red represents a decrease while green is an increase from the last known lowest price paid. These values shown here in this issue are now market averages. They are in fact the lowest known prices paid on a deal involving each type. Where no change is shown we have either not been able to gain price on a transaction during either this period or the last six months ago. The value changes on some aircraft represent manufacturer reductions due to reporations on deals where we know of pricing. The general trend is one of lower prices from six months ago, mainly during the last calender quarter of 2011, as always it is very important to remember that the rates listed are set by the most competitive deal in the market. 68 Airline Economics March/April 2012 www.airlineeconomics.com