US & Global Economy: Review and forecast 2012

Economic Review and Forecast: You Might Need These e-forecasting.com’s outlook for US and global economic conditions Friday, February 10 th , 2012

Presentation Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

State Capitalism & Global Competition ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Rich is the Problem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

FED, ECB, BoE, BoJ…. & IMF ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Fifty Years of the European Socialist Experiment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Current Risks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Employment: Where is the New Peak

Real-Time Look @ Economy NOW ,[object Object],[object Object]

Real Time Monthly GDP ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Growth in Monthly GDP ,[object Object],[object Object]

Historical View ,[object Object]

Q4 was fastest quarter last year ,[object Object],Year Month Quarterly GDP Monthly GDP Chained $2005 annual % change Chained $2005 annual % change annual % change MA3 SAAR*, Billions from quarter ago SAAR*, Billions from month ago from 3 months ago** 2011 January $13,225.0 ▼ -1.4% 1.9% 2011 February $13,224.5 ▬ 0.0% 1.2% 2011 March $13,227.9 0.4% $13,234.1 ▲ 0.9% 0.4% 2011 April $13,259.8 ▲ 2.4% 0.4% 2011 May $13,266.9 ▲ 0.6% 0.7% 2011 June $13,273.3 1.4% $13,293.1 ▲ 2.4% 1.4% 2011 July $13,308.9 ▲ 1.4% 1.5% 2011 August $13,326.8 ▲ 1.6% 1.7% 2011 September $13,331.6 1.8% $13,359.1 ▲ 3.0% 1.8% 2011 October $13,391.0 ▲ 2.9% 2.1% 2011 November $13,419.3 ▲ 2.6% 2.4% 2011 December $13,422.4 2.8% $13,456.9 ▲ 3.4% 2.8% 2012 January $13,487.6 ▲ 2.8% 2.9% *SAAR: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. **MA3: 3-month moving average monthly GDP. End-month of quarter growth rate is the same as the annual quarterly growth rate.

Short-Term Outlook: US Lead ,[object Object],[object Object]

Short-Term Outlook: US Lead ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

eLEI shows recession probability next 3-4 months at nearly zero

Short-Term Outlook: US ,[object Object]

US Manufacturing ,[object Object]

US Consumer Prices ,[object Object]

US Durable Goods ,[object Object]

Exports Outlook ,[object Object]

Imports Outlook ,[object Object]

Trade Balance Outlook ,[object Object]

Monetary Policy on the Horizon ,[object Object],[object Object]

Global Future Outlook ,[object Object]

World vs. US ,[object Object],[object Object]

BRIC: Showing Resilience ,[object Object],[object Object]

Latin America’s Bumpy Ride ,[object Object],[object Object]

Euro Area ,[object Object],[object Object]

Non-Euro Area ,[object Object],[object Object]

Africa & Middle East ,[object Object],[object Object]

Asia Pacific ,[object Object],[object Object]

Emerging Asia once again will carry global economy

Market Size Measured by GDP in $PPP Billion: 2009 vs 2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Wrap Up ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

US & Global Economy: Review and forecast 2012

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US & Global Economy: Review and forecast 2012