GCC economies will face sharp contractions in 2009, but a recovery is possible in 2010. Despite the Opec decision to slash production and growing confidence that the oil price crash is over and may even be partly reversed this year, the Middle East’s largest economies will suffer a substantial setback in 2009. According to analysis in A Short, Sharp Shock, a new report by MEED Insight about the economic outlook for the GCC, the dollar value of the GCC’s gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices will probably contract by about 20 per cent in 2009.

1. A Short, Sharp Shock: Economic Outlook for the GCC in 2009-10. A Short, Sharp Shock: Economic Outlook for the GCC in 2009-10

5. Charts: Oil supply & prices f=forecast; b/d=barrels a day. Sources: Opec; Energy Information Administration; International Energy Agency; MEED f=forecast Sources: GCC governments; MEED GCC oil production (m b/d) $ value of GCC GDP at current prices (% change)

7. Quote “ Whichever way the figures are manipulated, the economies of the GCC are about to be dealt a bitter blow”

15. Quotes from the full report "Higher oil prices and production in 2010 will deliver a current account surplus of up to $2.5bn in Oman " " Bahrain ’s economy has increased in nominal terms by more than 150 per cent since 2002" " Kuwait 's trade surplus is estimated to have reached a record of almost $60bn in 2008" " Qatar exports rose by almost 400 per cent from 2002 to about $57bn" " Saudi Arabia will record a current account deficit of up to $25bn in 2009" "MEED expects the UAE will reduce oil production by 10 per cent to 2.3 million b/d"

16. To order A Short, Sharp Shock Order the full MEED Insight report, A Short, Sharp Shock: Economic Outlook for the GCC in 2009-10, for $2,500. Download the order form (PDF)

17. About us About MEED Insight MEED Insight offers Middle East research reports and in-depth, tailored analysis. For more information, contact [email_address] or visit www.meed.com/insight . About the author The author of the report is Edmund O’Sullivan. Read his weekly Last Word columns .

18. MEED Insight MEED Insight - www.meed.com/insight A Short, Sharp Shock: Economic Outlook for the GCC in 2009-10 January 2009