Application of seasonal climate forecasts for electricity demand forecasting: a case study on Italy

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matteodefelice

Presented at EGU 2013, Session CL5.8 "Climate Services - Underpinning Science"

Technologie Business

Application of seasonal climate
forecasts to electricity demand
M. De Felice, A. Alessandri, F. Catalano - ENEA, Climate Modeling & Impacts Laboratory

EGU General Assembly 2013

Original question

EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

Original question

Can we predict this?

EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

Electricity Demand Forecast

EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

Electricity Demand Forecast

✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions

EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

Electricity Demand Forecast

✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions

✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 days

EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

Main Limits

✤ Seasonal Forecast accuracy over Europe

✤ Power systems are not stationary

✤ Critical inﬂuence of economic factors on
seasonal time scales

EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

Our Work

✤ Assess the potential use of seasonal climate forecasts over Italy

✤ Summer (JJ) 1990-2007
4
x 10
3

2.5
GWh

2

1.5

1
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
months

EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

Electricity Demand in Italy

1996-2002

North-West and South

EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

Electricity Demand in Italy

1996-2002

North-West and South

2003-2010

EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

Electricity Demand in Italy

✤ June and July average demand (provided by TERNA)

EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

Climate Data
✤ 2-metres temperature from:

I) ECMWF ERA-INTERIM Reanalysis

II) ECMWF System4 (issued in May)

EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

Our Approach

Z = AS
2 3 2 3
dN W,1990 ... dN W,2007 t1,1990 ... t1,2007
6 dN,1990 ... dN W,2007 7 6 t2,1990 ... t2,2007 7
6 7 6 7
Z=6 . 7 S=6 . 7
4 .
. 5 4 .
. 5
dI2,1990 ... dI2,2007 tn⇥k,1990 ... tn⇥k,2007

Principal Component Analysis (PCA)

A = Z˜ ˜ ˜
˜ S0 (SS0 ) 1
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

Our Approach

˜ ˜
Z = AS

Main temperature modes/patterns
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

Bootstrap
✤ Out-of-sample error estimation via bootstrap procedure
#1 #2 ... #6000
1990 2004 1993 1996
1991 1992 1992 ... 2001

TRAINING
1992 1992 2001 2000
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
Sampling
with replacement . . .
2007 1999
TESTING
2001 ... 1994

2001 1990 2006
Samples
not selected
...
1993 2007 2004
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

Results

ERA-INTERIM System4 - May

EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

Results

EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

Next steps

✤ Use of seasonal forecasts issued in March - June

✤ Replace ERA-INTERIM with observations (CRU TS)

EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

✤

0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
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70000
1991/1
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EGU Meeting 2013
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1992/7
1992/10
1993/1
1993/4
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1993/10
1994/1

AT
1994/4
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Next steps

BE
1995/7
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1996/4
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1996/10

CH
1997/1
1997/4
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1997/10
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DE
1998/4
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1999/4

ES
1999/7
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FR
2001/1
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2002/1

GR
2002/4
2002/7
2002/10
2003/1
2003/4

IT
2003/7
2003/10
2004/1
2004/4
2004/7
2004/10
LU
2005/1
2005/4
Extensions to other European (ENTSOE) countries

2005/7
2005/10
2006/1
NL

2006/4
2006/7
2006/10
2007/1
2007/4
PT

2007/7
2007/10
2008/1
2008/4
De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

2008/7
2008/10
2009/1
2009/4
2009/7
2009/10
2010/1
2010/4
2010/7
2010/10
2011/1

http://matteodefelice.name/research

www.utmea.enea.it

matteo.defelice@enea.it

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Application of seasonal climate forecasts for electricity demand forecasting: a case study on Italy

1. Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand M. De Felice, A. Alessandri, F. Catalano - ENEA, Climate Modeling & Impacts Laboratory EGU General Assembly 2013

2. Original question EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

3. Original question Can we predict this? EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

4. Electricity Demand Forecast EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

5. Electricity Demand Forecast ✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

6. Electricity Demand Forecast ✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions ✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 days EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

7. Electricity Demand Forecast ✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions ✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 days ✤ Seasonal Forecasts have improved in the last decades (see Stockdale et al., Climate Dynamics 2011 and Alessandri et al., Monthly Weather Review, 2011) EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

8. Electricity Demand Forecast ✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions ✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 days ✤ Seasonal Forecasts have improved in the last decades (see Stockdale et al., Climate Dynamics 2011 and Alessandri et al., Monthly Weather Review, 2011) EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

9. Electricity Demand Forecast ✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions ✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 days ✤ Seasonal Forecasts have improved in the last decades (see Stockdale et al., Climate Dynamics 2011 and Alessandri et al., Monthly Weather Review, 2011) Why not using them for a smarter/better/more efﬁcient decision-making in energy sector? EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

10. Main Limits ✤ Seasonal Forecast accuracy over Europe ✤ Power systems are not stationary ✤ Critical inﬂuence of economic factors on seasonal time scales EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

11. Our Work ✤ Assess the potential use of seasonal climate forecasts over Italy ✤ Summer (JJ) 1990-2007 4 x 10 3 2.5 GWh 2 1.5 1 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 months EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

12. Electricity Demand in Italy 1996-2002 North-West and South EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

13. Electricity Demand in Italy 1996-2002 North-West and South 2003-2010 EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

14. Electricity Demand in Italy ✤ June and July average demand (provided by TERNA) EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

15. Climate Data ✤ 2-metres temperature from: I) ECMWF ERA-INTERIM Reanalysis II) ECMWF System4 (issued in May) EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

16. Our Approach Z = AS 2 3 2 3 dN W,1990 ... dN W,2007 t1,1990 ... t1,2007 6 dN,1990 ... dN W,2007 7 6 t2,1990 ... t2,2007 7 6 7 6 7 Z=6 . 7 S=6 . 7 4 . . 5 4 . . 5 dI2,1990 ... dI2,2007 tn⇥k,1990 ... tn⇥k,2007 Principal Component Analysis (PCA) A = Z˜ ˜ ˜ ˜ S0 (SS0 ) 1 EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

17. Our Approach Z = AS 2 3 2 3 dN W,1990 ... dN W,2007 t1,1990 ... t1,2007 6 dN,1990 ... dN W,2007 7 6 t2,1990 ... t2,2007 7 6 7 6 7 Z=6 . 7 S=6 . 7 4 . . 5 4 . . 5 dI2,1990 ... dI2,2007 tn⇥k,1990 ... tn⇥k,2007 Principal Component Analysis (PCA) A = Z˜ ˜ ˜ ˜ S0 (SS0 ) 1 EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

18. Our Approach ˜ ˜ Z = AS Main temperature modes/patterns EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

19. Bootstrap ✤ Out-of-sample error estimation via bootstrap procedure #1 #2 ... #6000 1990 2004 1993 1996 1991 1992 1992 ... 2001 TRAINING 1992 1992 2001 2000 . . . . . . . . . Sampling with replacement . . . 2007 1999 TESTING 2001 ... 1994 2001 1990 2006 Samples not selected ... 1993 2007 2004 EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

20. Results ERA-INTERIM System4 - May EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

21. Results EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

22. Next steps ✤ Use of seasonal forecasts issued in March - June ✤ Replace ERA-INTERIM with observations (CRU TS) EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

23. ✤ 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 1991/1 1991/4 1991/7 1991/10 1992/1 EGU Meeting 2013 1992/4 1992/7 1992/10 1993/1 1993/4 1993/7 1993/10 1994/1 AT 1994/4 1994/7 1994/10 1995/1 1995/4 Next steps BE 1995/7 1995/10 1996/1 1996/4 1996/7 1996/10 CH 1997/1 1997/4 1997/7 1997/10 1998/1 DE 1998/4 1998/7 1998/10 1999/1 1999/4 ES 1999/7 1999/10 2000/1 2000/4 2000/7 2000/10 FR 2001/1 2001/4 2001/7 2001/10 2002/1 GR 2002/4 2002/7 2002/10 2003/1 2003/4 IT 2003/7 2003/10 2004/1 2004/4 2004/7 2004/10 LU 2005/1 2005/4 Extensions to other European (ENTSOE) countries 2005/7 2005/10 2006/1 NL 2006/4 2006/7 2006/10 2007/1 2007/4 PT 2007/7 2007/10 2008/1 2008/4 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand 2008/7 2008/10 2009/1 2009/4 2009/7 2009/10 2010/1 2010/4 2010/7 2010/10 2011/1

24. http://matteodefelice.name/research www.utmea.enea.it matteo.defelice@enea.it

Application of seasonal climate forecasts for electricity demand forecasting: a case study on Italy

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