Presentatie die ik samen met Nikki Demandt heb gegeven op 19-12-2011 in het kader van de course Selforganization, cognition and social systems van de Rijksuniversiteit Groningen

1. Simulating Human Behaviour for
Understanding and Managing
Environmental Resource Use
Jager &Mosler (2007)
Presentation 19-12-2011:
Martin Specken & Nikki Demandt

2. Authors
• Wander Jager
– University of Groningen
– Expertise:
• Marketing
• Agent basedsimulation
• Hans Joachim Mosler
– University of Zurich
– Expertise:
• Modelingsocialsystems
• Agent basedsimulation
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

3. Abstract
• Demonstrate how simulations can be used to:
– Identify interaction between human behaviour and
complex environmental systems
– Explore possible effects of policy strategies
– Contribute to our understanding
– Manage environmental resources in sustainable way
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

4. Observingeffects of humanbehaviour
onnatural resources
Plato discussed the erosion
of Atticadue to agriculture
360 B.C. 2011
0 1968
Hardin’s paper “Tragedy of the commons”
led to experimentaltraditionwhich led
to anabundance of laboratory studies
Visualisation: www.oplossingsgerichtmanagement.nl and www.themotivatedyouth.com
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

5. Agent-based simulation allows for…
• …experimenting with complexities at
Individual level
Visualisation: Martin Specken, Nikki Demandt
Simulating Human Behaviour for Understanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use (Jager, Mosler, 2007)

6. Agent-based simulation allows for… (2)
• …experimenting with complexities at
Social level
Individual level
Visualisation: Martin Specken, Nikki Demandt
Simulating Human Behaviour for Understanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use (Jager, Mosler, 2007)

7. Agent-based simulation allows for… (3)
• …experimenting with complexities at
Environmental level
Social level
Individual level
…by formalizing agents in an artificial world
Visualisation: Martin Specken, Nikki Demandt
Simulating Human Behaviour for Understanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use (Jager, Mosler, 2007)

8. Agent-basedsimulationallowsfor… (4)
• …the modeling of
interactionsbetweenindividuals
Visualisation: Screendump of Netlogo model byWander Jager
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

9. Agent-basedsimulationallowsfor… (5)
• …experimentingwith
policymeasures
without harming
people and the
environment
Visualisation: Milgram experiment (1963)
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

10. Whatshouldbesimulated and how?
• Jager & Janssen (2003): Theorieson
– Needs
– Decision-makingprocesses
– Processes of (social) learning
Visualisation: Google images, www.biojournaal.nl
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

11. Whatshouldbesimulated and how? (2)
• Formalization of needs is important:
– Whensatisfaction of personal
needsharms the environment
– Thismay effect need
satisfaction in the long run
Visualisation: www.atgrannyshouse.blogspot.com and www.sp.nl
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

12. Whatshouldbesimulated and how? (3)
• Decisionprocessesrefer to:
– Peoplemakingchoices
– Storage of information
– Formation of attitudes
Visualisation: www.amazon.com
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

13. Whatshouldbesimulated and how? (4)
• Socialprocessesplay important roles:
– Diffusion of newbehaviour and practices
– Networkeffects
Visualisation: www.blogs.com
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

14. Whatshouldbesimulated and how? (5)
• Conclusion:
“The essentialpoint is that the output - in
terms of simulatedbehaviour - has
oftennotbeen hypothesizedbeforehand”
• Even in simplesituations we are notcapableto
predict the outcome
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

15. Simulating Behavioral Processes in
Environmental Management
• Jager & Mosler discuss 3 simulation studies
that illustrate how agent-based simulation
1. Contributes to explain well-known empirical
phenomena
2. Allows for replicating multiple experimental results
by allowing for several factors to interact
3. May be integrated with models of environmental
systems
Simulating Human Behaviour for Understanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use (Jager, Mosler, 2007)

16. HowUncertaintyStimulatesOver-Harvesting
• Jager et al (2002): Whatrole does
socialcontagionplay in over-harvestingdue to
the desireforshort-termoutcomes?
• Model:
– Need for subsistence -> Fishing for food
– Need for leisure -> Not-fishing
– Satisfaction = Sum of both needs
– Uncertainty [expected catch – actual catch]
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

17. How Uncertainty Stimulates Over-Harvesting (2)
4 Uncertainty
strategies
High Low
Automated
High imitate repeat no memory
Satisfaction
update of other
agents
Reasoned
social
Low deliberate
compare memory update
of other agents
Visualisation: Martin Specken and Nikki Demandt
Simulating Human Behaviour for Understanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use (Jager, Mosler, 2007)

18. HowUncertaintyStimulatesOver-Harvesting (3)
• Results:
– An “optimism effect” was found
1. Fish stock is high (High satisfaction, low uncertainty)
2. Repeat own behaviour
3. Agents only consider short-term outcomes
4. Lower fish stock not observed
5. Continuous fishing
6. Fish stock low (Low satisfaction, high uncertainty)
7. Deliberation: Too late to restore fish stock
– An “adaptation effect” was found
• More agents -> Less resource protecting behaviour
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

19. HowUncertaintyStimulatesOver-Harvesting (4)
• Implications:
– Good environmental news may lead to “bad habits”
– Simulation can lead to policy measures +
promotional strategies of “proper behaviour”
– Empirical follow-up studies can be focussed of
identifying effects in the field
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

20. A Simulation of DecisionMakingfor the
SustainableUse of Environmental Resources
• Mosler&Brucks (2003): How people use
environmental resources will be influenced by:
– Their own goals
– Size of the resource
– Assessment of the way other people use it
• Model: Simulation of resource use
• Tried to replicate findings of lab experiments
with real participants
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

21. A Simulation of DecisionMakingfor the
SustainableUse of Environmental Resources (2)
• Model: Social-ecological relevance
– Individual in environmental resources dilemma
simultaneous weights social and ecological factors
– Social:
• Attributions
• Social values
• Others’ behaviour Individual
Consumption
– Ecological:
• State of the resource
• Resource uncertainty
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

22. A Simulation of DecisionMakingfor the
SustainableUse of Environmental Resources (3)
• Implications:
– Specific interactions of variables so far examined
separately can be demonstrated
– Parts of complicated process of decision making can
be captured
– Policy measures can be more adequate and will be
more effective in changing resource use
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

23. Transitions in a Virtual Society
• Jager et al (2000): Will more realistic agents
result in different human-environment
interaction compared to standard economically
optimizing agents?
• Model: Lakeland
– Fish stock in a lake
– Gold mine (pollution)
– Economical submodel
• Sell fish and/or gold
• Buy food and/or status-enhancing products
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

24. Transitions in a Virtual Society (2)
• 16 agents with 4 needs
– Subsistence (Satisfied by fish or gold)
– Identity (Relative amount of money)
– Leisure (Share of time spent on leisure)
– Freedom (Total amount of money owned)
• 4 decision strategies
– Homo psychologicus
• 4 strategies
– Homo economicus
• deliberate strategy
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

25. Exploring the Effects of
EnvironmentalPolicyStrategiesforSustainable
Management of Environmental Resources
• Jager&Mosler discuss 3 simulation studies
that examined the effects of policy measures
1. Allows for linking of emperical context and
simulations
2. May contribute to applicability of simulation
results in practical policy settings
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

26. DeterminingPolicyEffectiveness of a
Car-SpeedingCampaign
• The model (Mosler et al, 2001)
1 Resistance to
Change Attitude
Attitude
Self-Responsability
3 Behavior
PersonalValues
Resistance to
changeBehavior
2
Visualisation: Mosler et al (2001), colorseditedby Martin Specken and Nikki Demandt
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

27. DeterminingPolicyEffectiveness of a
Car-SpeedingCampaign (2)
• Realworldcampaign “Slow Down”
– Switzerland (Münsingen)
– Cognitive dissonance theory (Festinger, 1957)
– Self-commitment instrument:
1. Drivers committed themselves in writing
2. Prompts
3. Feedback
– Questionnaire surveyconductedbefore and after
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

28. Determining Policy Effectiveness of a
Car-Speeding Campaign (3)
• Results
- Differences between measured and simulated end values
Differenc
Half 0 – 10 11 – 20 21 - Missing
e
Attitude 50% (30) 37% (22) 13% (8) 7
1 Behavior 45% (30) 20% (13) 35% (23) 1
Attitude 69% (34) 15% (7) 16% (8) 18
2 Behavior 29% (19) 32% (21) 39% (26) 1
Visualisation: Mosler et al (2001), edited by Martin Specken and Nikki Demandt
Simulating Human Behaviour for Understanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use (Jager, Mosler, 2007)

29. Determining Policy Effectiveness of a
Car-Speeding Campaign (4)
• Conclusions
1. Possible to replicate outcomes of dissonance
reduction processes
2. Improves understanding of intra-individual
processes
3. Determine most successful parameters for a
campaign
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

30. Environmental Technologies forHouseholds:
SharedSolar Power Plants
• The model (Mosler et al, 2002)
Ecological
factors
- resource size
Ecologicalinfluence
- resource Ecologicalrelevance
uncertainty
Social- Weighting
Use
ecological
change
relevance
Social Socialrelevance
factors Socialinfluence
-use of others
- socialvalues
Visualisation: Mosler et al (2002), editedby Martin Specken and Nikki Demandt
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

31. Environmental Technologies forHouseholds:
SharedSolar Power Plants (2)
• Santa Maria de Loreto (Cuba)
Visualisation: www.solar-e.com
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

32. Environmental Technologies forHouseholds:
SharedSolar Power Plants (3)
• Results
– Simulating a power shortage. Known components:
1. State of batteries
2. Consumption of neighbors
– A Run of 144 hours with 50 household agents was
executed
• No rules were enforced
– Same or better consumption when no rules were
enforced
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

33. Environmental Technologies for Households:
Shared Solar Power Plants (4)
• Conclusions
– Simulations can help
advice politicians in
design and build
sustainable
environmental
–technical systems
Visualisation: www.theepochtimes.com
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

34. Diffusion of Green Products
• Model (Jager et al, 2002)
– Consumers and firms were simulated as populations
with different behavioral characteristics
– Need satisfaction depended on:
1. Social need: same preferences as neighbors
2. Personal need: personal preference or taste
– Four decision strategies
– Two conditions
• Homo psychologicus
• Homo economicus
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

35. Diffusion of Green Products (2)
• Model
– Stable market (5 green and 5 non green)
– Continuous product-development market
– Taxing:
• Full tax at t = 50 (fast)
• Gradual tax increase from t = 25 to t = 75 (slow)
Visualisation: www.eenvandaag.nl and www.sp.nl
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

36. Diffusion of Green Products (3)
• Results
– Tax regime makes largest difference in stable market
• If tax increase slow -> a slow increase of green products
• If tax increase fast -> a fast increase of green products
– Behavioral characteristics makes largest difference in
continuous product development market
• Homo economicus:
– Slower response to change in tax
– Personal needs was sooner satisfied due to product
development
• Homo psychologicus:
– agents developed habitual behavior
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

37. Diffusion of Green Products (4)
• Conclusions
– Assumptions on decision making and related market
dynamics are critical in understanding effect of
policy measures
– Experiment provided a perspective on how policy
measures can be tested in a multi-agent simulation
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

38. Implicationsfor Research and PolicyMaking of
EnvironmentalProblems
• Simulation offer richmethodology
• Significant contribution to studybehavior-
environmentalinteractions
• Valuabletoolforexploringeffectiveness of
policymeasuresin complex environments
Behavioraltheory + Agent-based
empirical case studies simulations
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

39. Suggestions
• Addvisualisations, e.g.
– Data tables
– Screenshots
– Flowcharts
– Graphs
Thishelpsmaking the goal of the article more clear
SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)

40. M1
M2
Questions M3
+
discussion
M4
M5
M6