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                                 Northwestern	
  University	
  
                                                       IEMS	
  393	
  
               Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  
              Charging	
  Stations	
  in	
  Evanston,	
  Illinois	
  
       	
  
       	
  




                                                                                             	
  

                                                                   	
  

       	
  

               Ximena	
  Arias,	
  Carolina	
  Pardo,	
  Harsha	
  Patel,	
  Stefano	
  Pianura,	
  Santiago	
  Valdez	
  


                                                                   	
  
                                                       June	
  2,	
  2011	
  

                                                                   	
  


                                                                   	
  


                                                                   	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  


Table	
  of	
  Contents	
  
INTRODUCTION	
                                                                             3	
  

EXECUTIVE	
  SUMMARY	
                                                                     4	
  

STAGE	
  1:	
  EARLY	
  IMPLEMENTATION	
                                                   5	
  
VENDOR	
  AND	
  TECHNOLOGY	
                                                              5	
  
RECOMMENDED	
  VENDOR	
  AND	
  TECHNOLOGY	
                                               5	
  
PRICING	
  STRATEGY	
                                                                      5	
  
KEY	
  FINANCIAL	
  CONSIDERATIONS	
                                                       6	
  
PROMOTIONAL	
  STRATEGY	
                                                                  7	
  
LOGISTICS:	
  QUEUING	
  MODEL	
                                                           8	
  

STAGE	
  2:	
  SCALABLE	
  GROWTH	
                                                      10	
  
NEW	
  TECHNOLOGIES	
                                                                    10	
  
PRICING	
  STRATEGY	
                                                                    10	
  
NEW	
  PLACES	
  TO	
  EXPAND	
                                                          11	
  
METRICS	
  FOR	
  HOW	
  TO	
  EXPAND	
                                                  12	
  

STAGE	
  3:	
  FUTURE	
  POSSIBILITIES	
                                                 13	
  
EXPANSION	
                                                                              13	
  
NEW	
  TECHNOLOGY	
                                                                      13	
  
LEASING	
  TO	
  PRIVATE	
  COMPANIES	
                                                  13	
  
ASSESSING	
  THE	
  STATE	
  OF	
  THE	
  GRID	
                                         13	
  

RISKS	
                                                                                  13	
  

APPENDICES	
                                                                             15	
  
A.	
  RESEARCH	
                                                                         15	
  
B.	
  ANALYSIS	
                                                                         19	
  
B.1	
  PRICING	
  AND	
  FINANCIAL	
  ANALYSIS	
                                         19	
  
B.2	
  DEMAND	
  GROWTH	
                                                                31	
  
B.3	
  QUEUING	
  MODEL	
                                                                33	
  




	
                                                                               2	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  


Introduction	
  
	
  

The	
  following	
  report	
  contains	
  a	
  compilation	
  of	
  our	
  recommendations	
  for	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston’s	
  Electric	
  
Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Station	
  implementations.	
  Throughout	
  the	
  course	
  of	
  our	
  work	
  with	
  the	
  CoE’s	
  
Sustainability	
  Office	
  we	
  enjoyed	
  learning	
  about	
  the	
  project	
  and	
  exploring	
  its	
  potential	
  for	
  success	
  and	
  
growth.	
  	
  

The	
  high	
  level	
  of	
  foresight	
  and	
  initiative	
  the	
  CoE	
  has	
  taken	
  with	
  regards	
  to	
  Electric	
  Vehicles	
  has	
  greatly	
  
impressed	
  our	
  team.	
  Our	
  hope	
  is	
  that	
  these	
  recommendations	
  and	
  deliverables	
  will	
  facilitate	
  this	
  growth	
  
and	
  foresight,	
  helping	
  translate	
  ideas	
  into	
  action	
  in	
  the	
  near	
  future.	
  With	
  this	
  goal	
  in	
  mind	
  we	
  have	
  
structured	
  our	
  report	
  and	
  deliverables	
  to	
  aid	
  and	
  inform	
  CoE’s	
  decisions,	
  with	
  an	
  emphasis	
  on	
  practical	
  
planning	
  and	
  analysis.	
  More	
  detailed	
  quantitative	
  and	
  academic	
  research	
  is	
  provided	
  as	
  a	
  supplement	
  to	
  
the	
  more	
  practical,	
  user-­‐centered	
  portions	
  of	
  the	
  report.	
  	
  

Report	
  Structure	
  

We	
  have	
  divided	
  this	
  report	
  into	
  three	
  sections,	
  corresponding	
  to	
  three	
  stages	
  of	
  implementation	
  for	
  EV	
  
charging	
  station	
  implementation.	
  	
  




                                                                                                                                                                      	
  
	
  

An	
  appendix	
  supplements	
  the	
  report	
  with	
  further	
  detail	
  on	
  analysis	
  and	
  research,	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  suggestions	
  
for	
  further	
  exploration.	
  	
  


	
                                                                                                                                                            3	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  


           Executive	
  Summary	
  
           	
  

                                                                      Stage	
  1:	
  Early	
  Implementation	
  
Goal	
                         Encourage	
  EV	
  technology	
  adoption	
  and	
  brand	
  Evanston	
  as	
  a	
  green	
  and	
  forward-­‐looking	
  city.	
  	
  
Installation	
  	
             Purchase	
  two	
  dual	
  level	
  (Level	
  1&2)	
  Coulomb	
  Technologies	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  through	
  Carbon	
  Day	
  vendor	
  
                               Why?	
  	
  
                                     -­‐ Ownership	
  of	
  the	
  stations	
  allows	
  control	
  over	
  pricing	
  decisions	
  
                                     -­‐ Two	
  stations	
  will	
  meet	
  at	
  least	
  97%	
  of	
  demand	
  up	
  to	
  five	
  charges	
  per	
  day	
  on	
  average	
  
Location	
                     1800	
  St.	
  Maple	
  Parking	
  Garage	
  
                               Why?	
  
                                     -­‐ Maple	
  Garage’s	
  internal	
  wiring	
  allows	
  a	
  lower	
  cost	
  installation	
  
                                     -­‐ Less	
  disruption	
  of	
  existing	
  traffic	
  flow	
  
                                     -­‐ More	
  exposure	
  and	
  visibility	
  to	
  Evanston	
  Community	
  
Publicity	
                    • Offer	
  free	
  charging	
  until	
  competitors	
  start	
  applying	
  a	
  fee	
  for	
  charging	
  EVs	
  
                               • Invest	
  in	
  signs	
  and	
  publicity	
  
                               • Partner	
  with	
  iGo	
  and	
  local	
  businesses	
  
                               Why?	
  	
  	
  
                                  -­‐ Ensure	
  visitors	
  to	
  the	
  garage	
  know	
  there	
  is	
  an	
  EV	
  charging	
  station	
  available,	
  and	
  are	
  able	
  to	
  find	
  it	
  
                                  -­‐ Spread	
  the	
  word	
  to	
  the	
  broader	
  community	
  that	
  Evanston	
  is	
  an	
  early	
  adopter	
  of	
  this	
  technology	
  
Financial	
                    •     The	
  estimated	
  cost	
  for	
  purchase	
  and	
  installation	
  of	
  two	
  stations	
  is	
  $13,500.	
  
Considerations	
               •     We	
  recommend	
  enforcing	
  two	
  types	
  of	
  parking	
  violation	
  tickets:	
  
                                             • $30	
  for	
  overtime	
  parking	
  
                                             • $200	
  for	
  illegal	
  parking	
  
                              •      Estimated	
  revenue	
  from	
  parking	
  tickets	
  will	
  cover	
  electrical	
  and	
  other	
  operating	
  costs.	
  	
  
                              •      In	
  this	
  stage	
  the	
  stations	
  are	
  not	
  profitable,	
  and	
  instead	
  act	
  as	
  a	
  promoter	
  of	
  growth	
  and	
  an	
  
                                     investment	
  
                                                                            Stage	
  2:	
  Scalable	
  Growth	
  
Goal	
                       Make	
  the	
  appropriate	
  expansion	
  and	
  pricing	
  decisions	
  based	
  on	
  a	
  monitored	
  level	
  of	
  demand	
  
Expansion	
                  Monitor	
  demand,	
  use	
  provided	
  metrics	
  to	
  respond.	
  Expand	
  into	
  Sherman	
  Plaza	
  Garage	
  
Strategy	
                   	
  Why?	
  To	
  avoid	
  turning	
  away	
  more	
  than	
  3%	
  of	
  potential	
  chargers,	
  we	
  provide	
  indicators	
  that	
  Evanston	
  can	
  
                             use	
  to	
  determine	
  when	
  to	
  purchase	
  an	
  additional	
  charging	
  station	
  
Pricing	
  Strategy	
   Refer	
  to	
  our	
  pricing	
  guide	
  to	
  learn	
  how	
  applying	
  different	
  fees	
  per	
  hour	
  of	
  charging	
  will	
  affect	
  financial	
  
                        estimates	
  and	
  payback	
  periods	
  
Maintain	
                   Watch	
  for	
  technology	
  adaptation.	
  For	
  example,	
  the	
  state	
  of	
  the	
  technology	
  of	
  DC	
  Fast	
  Charging	
  stations	
  as	
  
Flexibility	
                plausible	
  solutions	
  for	
  installation	
  on	
  strategic	
  curbside	
  parking	
  spots	
  
                                                                          Stage	
  3:	
  Future	
  Possibilities	
  
Goal	
                       Plan	
  for	
  long-­‐term	
  risks,	
  challenges,	
  and	
  opportunities.	
  Take	
  advantage	
  of	
  emerging	
  technologies.	
  
Expansion	
                  • Consider	
  expanding	
  to	
  outside	
  street	
  parking	
  
Possibilities	
              • Implementing	
  solar	
  charging	
  stations	
  or	
  other	
  renewable	
  energy	
  sources	
  
                             • Giving	
  charging	
  station	
  concessions	
  to	
  private	
  companies	
  
                             • Asses	
  the	
  state	
  of	
  the	
  grid	
  
Pricing	
  Strategy	
        At	
  this	
  stage,	
  pricing	
  will	
  likely	
  be	
  dominated	
  by	
  market	
  forces.	
  Set	
  prices	
  to	
  competitive	
  levels.	
  	
  




           	
                                                                                                                                                                           4	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  


Stage	
  1:	
  Early	
  Implementation	
  
	
  
Vendor	
  and	
  Technology	
  
Although	
  we	
  considered	
  the	
  possibility	
  of	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  leasing	
  its	
  parking	
  spaces	
  to	
  a	
  private	
  
company	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  decrease	
  any	
  expenses	
  or	
  risks,	
  we	
  ultimately	
  recommend	
  that	
  the	
  CoE	
  buy	
  and	
  
operate	
  their	
  own	
  charging	
  stations	
  (See	
  Appendix	
  A.1	
  for	
  Vendors).	
  Owning	
  and	
  operating	
  the	
  EV	
  
charging	
  stations	
  will	
  allow	
  the	
  CoE	
  to	
  control	
  charging	
  rates	
  and	
  number	
  of	
  stations	
  without	
  harming	
  
their	
  customers.	
  	
  

Recommended	
  Vendor	
  and	
  Technology	
  

Carbon	
  Day	
  is	
  an	
  Illinois-­‐based	
  company	
  and	
  the	
  biggest	
  distributor	
  of	
  Coulomb	
  Technology	
  charging	
  
stations	
  in	
  the	
  Midwest.	
  Their	
  technology	
  uses	
  ChargePoint®	
  Network,	
  which	
  allows	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  
Evanston	
  to	
  closely	
  monitor	
  the	
  charging	
  station’s	
  operations	
  and	
  tailor	
  pricing	
  strategies	
  with	
  a	
  high	
  
degree	
  of	
  control.	
  

Coulomb	
  Technology	
  offers	
  the	
  3	
  types	
  of	
  charging	
  levels,	
  allowing	
  charges	
  in	
  an	
  enclosed	
  space	
  
(garage):	
  Level	
  1,	
  2,	
  and	
  DC	
  Quick	
  Charging.	
  We	
  recommend	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  to	
  acquire	
  charging	
  
stations	
  that	
  offer	
  dual	
  levels,	
  level	
  1	
  and	
  2,	
  allowing	
  two	
  cars	
  to	
  charge	
  simultaneously.	
  (See	
  Appendix	
  
A.2	
  for	
  Technology)	
  Given	
  the	
  early	
  stage	
  of	
  the	
  project	
  and	
  size	
  of	
  the	
  current	
  market,	
  we	
  recommend	
  
avoiding	
  DC:	
  Quick	
  Charging	
  stations,	
  given	
  their	
  high	
  upfront	
  cost	
  and	
  installation	
  expenses,	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  
potential	
  compatibility	
  issues	
  with	
  existing	
  EV	
  cars	
  on	
  the	
  market.	
  Each	
  dual	
  charging	
  station	
  has	
  a	
  cost	
  
of	
  $5,000	
  and	
  an	
  approximate	
  installation	
  cost	
  of	
  $2,500;	
  costs	
  are	
  explained	
  thoroughly	
  in	
  the	
  
upcoming	
  sections.	
  	
  

Although	
  charging	
  time	
  varies	
  among	
  types	
  of	
  cars,	
  a	
  Level	
  1	
  station	
  charges	
  a	
  car	
  in	
  approximately	
  8-­‐13	
  
hours	
  and	
  uses	
  120	
  Volts.	
  Level	
  2	
  charging	
  stations	
  require	
  4-­‐8	
  hours	
  to	
  charge	
  a	
  car	
  and	
  use	
  208-­‐240	
  
Volts.	
  (See	
  Appendix	
  A.3	
  for	
  current	
  cars	
  in	
  the	
  market).	
  	
  

Pricing	
  Strategy	
  	
  
For	
  the	
  initial	
  stage,	
  we	
  recommend	
  EV	
  charging	
  stations	
  be	
  free	
  for	
  use.	
  There	
  are	
  two	
  main	
  reasons	
  
why	
  we	
  recommend	
  adopting	
  this	
  strategy.	
  Firstly,	
  we	
  believe	
  that	
  charging	
  a	
  fee	
  can	
  be	
  
counterproductive	
  to	
  the	
  main	
  goal	
  for	
  this	
  initial	
  stage:	
  encouraging	
  the	
  adoption	
  of	
  EV	
  technology	
  and	
  
sending	
  a	
  message	
  of	
  sustainability	
  and	
  social	
  responsibility.	
  In	
  fact,	
  offering	
  free	
  charging	
  will	
  be	
  an	
  
incentive	
  for	
  current	
  EV	
  drivers	
  to	
  park	
  in	
  the	
  garage	
  or	
  for	
  potential	
  EV	
  buyers	
  to	
  consider	
  acquiring	
  an	
  
EV.	
  Secondly,	
  due	
  to	
  the	
  small	
  market	
  size	
  for	
  EVs	
  and	
  the	
  young	
  stage	
  of	
  the	
  technology,	
  offering	
  free	
  
charging	
  will	
  not	
  constitute	
  a	
  large	
  source	
  of	
  lost	
  revenues;	
  In	
  fact,	
  this	
  is	
  the	
  strategy	
  that	
  is	
  currently	
  
adopted	
  by	
  the	
  large	
  majority	
  of	
  EV	
  charging	
  stations’	
  owners	
  in	
  the	
  United	
  States,	
  including	
  those	
  in	
  the	
  
Chicago	
  area.	
  

Because	
  in	
  this	
  initial	
  stage	
  the	
  charging	
  stations	
  won’t	
  generate	
  revenue	
  directly,	
  we	
  considered	
  an	
  
alternative	
  source	
  of	
  revenue:	
  parking	
  violation	
  tickets.	
  	
  Particularly	
  we	
  recommend	
  the	
  CoE	
  enforce	
  the	
  
following	
  two	
  types	
  of	
  parking	
  violation	
  tickets	
  (please	
  see	
  Appendix	
  B.1	
  for	
  more	
  details	
  on	
  the	
  
financial	
  model):	
  

       1. 	
  Overtime	
  Parking	
  Tickets:	
  tickets	
  given	
  to	
  violators	
  who	
  fail	
  to	
  remove	
  their	
  vehicle	
  after	
  the	
  
          30-­‐minute	
  grace	
  period	
  following	
  the	
  time	
  when	
  the	
  vehicle	
  is	
  fully	
  charged	
  (the	
  EV	
  driver	
  will	
  
          receive	
  an	
  e-­‐mail	
  or	
  SMS	
  notification	
  for	
  charging	
  complete)	
  

	
                                                                                                                                                                  5	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  

       2. Illegal	
  Parking	
  Tickets:	
  	
  tickets	
  given	
  to	
  violators	
  who	
  park	
  in	
  the	
  spots	
  reserved	
  for	
  EV	
  charging	
  
          without	
  charging	
  their	
  vehicles.	
  	
  

Key	
  Financial	
  Considerations	
  
The	
  estimated	
  cost	
  for	
  the	
  purchase	
  and	
  installation	
  of	
  two	
  EV	
  charging	
  stations	
  is	
  $13,460.	
  This	
  amount	
  
includes	
  a	
  5-­‐year	
  extended	
  warranty,	
  an	
  annual	
  network	
  fee	
  and	
  a	
  30%	
  federal	
  tax	
  credit.	
  

The	
  cost	
  of	
  operating	
  the	
  stations	
  will	
  depend	
  on	
  the	
  EV	
  model	
  and	
  the	
  level	
  of	
  charging.	
  An	
  average	
  
charging	
  session	
  lasting	
  3.4	
  hours	
  without	
  processing	
  fee	
  applied	
  will	
  cost	
  $0.99	
  	
  ($0.49	
  for	
  electricity	
  +	
  
$0.5	
  for	
  the	
  vendor’s	
  authorization	
  fee)	
  (see	
  Appendix	
  B.1	
  for	
  more	
  details	
  on	
  the	
  financial	
  model)	
  

We	
  estimated	
  that	
  even	
  without	
  applying	
  a	
  fee	
  for	
  the	
  use	
  of	
  the	
  charging	
  stations,	
  electrical	
  costs	
  and	
  
additional	
  costs	
  of	
  operating	
  the	
  charging	
  stations	
  would	
  be	
  fully	
  covered	
  by	
  revenues	
  generated	
  from	
  
parking	
  violation	
  tickets.	
  This	
  is	
  illustrated	
  by	
  the	
  following	
  graph	
  showing	
  annual	
  costs	
  and	
  revenues	
  
from	
  operations	
  based	
  on	
  different	
  levels	
  of	
  demand	
  (see	
  Appendix	
  B.1	
  for	
  more	
  details	
  on	
  our	
  financial	
  
analysis	
  for	
  the	
  Free	
  Charging	
  Scenario).	
  

        	
  




                                                                                                                                                     	
  




	
                                                                                                                                                            6	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  


Promotional	
  Strategy	
  	
  
A	
  crucial	
  criterion	
  for	
  the	
  success	
  of	
  Stage	
  1	
  is	
  the	
  effectiveness	
  of	
  the	
  promotional	
  strategy.	
  First	
  and	
  
foremost,	
  people	
  who	
  live	
  or	
  work	
  in	
  the	
  city	
  of	
  Evanston	
  need	
  to	
  be	
  aware	
  of	
  charging	
  stations	
  in	
  the	
  
1800	
  Maple	
  Avenue	
  parking	
  garage.	
  There	
  are	
  a	
  few	
  simple	
  ways	
  to	
  do	
  this:	
  

	
            1.	
  A	
  clear	
  and	
  visible	
  sign	
  should	
  be	
  put	
  up	
  on	
  the	
  outside	
  wall	
  of	
  the	
  entrance	
  of	
  the	
  parking	
  
garage.	
  Further	
  signs	
  should	
  be	
  installed	
  inside	
  to	
  guide	
  potential	
  users	
  to	
  the	
  charging	
  stations.	
  Using	
  
white	
  and	
  green	
  colors	
  could	
  also	
  serve	
  as	
  a	
  way	
  to	
  show	
  drivers	
  that	
  this	
  was	
  a	
  green	
  initiative	
  started	
  
by	
  the	
  city.	
  	
  

	
         2.	
  A	
  series	
  of	
  broadcasted	
  announcements	
  on	
  the	
  radio	
  about	
  the	
  inauguration	
  of	
  the	
  stations,	
  
with	
  the	
  locations	
  and	
  rate	
  of	
  operation,	
  would	
  also	
  help	
  alert	
  Evanston	
  of	
  this	
  development.	
  

	
         3.	
  An	
  announcement	
  or	
  even	
  a	
  brief	
  article	
  explaining	
  the	
  new	
  developments	
  would	
  also	
  help	
  
inform	
  people.	
  

Potential	
  Partnerships	
  

Another	
  potentially	
  valuable	
  promotional	
  strategy	
  is	
  to	
  find	
  strategic	
  partners	
  who	
  could	
  also	
  benefit	
  
from	
  the	
  EV	
  charging	
  stations.	
  An	
  ideal	
  candidate	
  would	
  be	
  I-­‐Go	
  Car	
  Sharing.	
  The	
  company	
  recently	
  
released	
  an	
  announcement	
  stating	
  their	
  desire	
  to	
  put	
  as	
  many	
  as	
  30	
  EVs	
  on	
  the	
  road	
  by	
  the	
  end	
  of	
  2011.	
  	
  
A	
  partnership	
  with	
  I-­‐Go	
  presents	
  several	
  advantages.	
  From	
  a	
  marketing	
  point	
  of	
  view,	
  each	
  I-­‐Go	
  car	
  
services	
  many	
  users,	
  increasing	
  the	
  “audience”	
  of	
  residents	
  that	
  can	
  experience	
  the	
  technology.	
  Further,	
  
I-­‐Go	
  can	
  act	
  as	
  a	
  stable	
  customer	
  of	
  the	
  stations,	
  potentially	
  providing	
  an	
  initial	
  stream	
  of	
  revenue.	
  

Car	
  dealerships	
  are	
  another	
  potential	
  partner.	
  They	
  stand	
  to	
  benefit	
  from	
  the	
  added	
  infrastructure	
  by	
  an	
  
increase	
  in	
  car	
  sales,	
  and	
  as	
  a	
  result	
  may	
  be	
  willing	
  to	
  share	
  some	
  of	
  the	
  burden	
  of	
  advertisement,	
  or	
  
even	
  installation	
  costs.	
  Equally	
  important,	
  car	
  dealerships	
  can	
  serve	
  as	
  a	
  source	
  of	
  information	
  to	
  
residents	
  thinking	
  of	
  buying	
  an	
  EV.	
  Keeping	
  car	
  dealerships	
  aware	
  of	
  charging	
  capabilities	
  in	
  Evanston	
  
helps	
  ensure	
  that	
  the	
  information	
  gets	
  to	
  the	
  residents	
  who	
  need	
  it	
  most.	
  	
  	
  

The	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  could	
  also	
  look	
  into	
  implementing	
  a	
  similar	
  process	
  of	
  ticket	
  validation	
  that	
  is	
  
already	
  in	
  place	
  in	
  some	
  restaurants,	
  shops	
  and	
  theaters	
  close	
  to	
  this	
  parking	
  garage.	
  This	
  way,	
  people	
  
with	
  EV	
  would	
  get	
  that	
  extra	
  privilege,	
  thus	
  bringing	
  in	
  more	
  revenue	
  from	
  those	
  shoppers	
  and	
  
rewarding	
  people	
  who	
  made	
  the	
  change.	
  




	
                                                                                                                                                                       7	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  


Logistics:	
  Queuing	
  Model	
  	
  	
  
Since	
  demand	
  for	
  the	
  charging	
  station	
  is	
  uncertain	
  we	
  relied	
  on	
  simulation	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  determine	
  the	
  
optimal	
  number	
  of	
  stations	
  to	
  acquire	
  for	
  a	
  given	
  level	
  of	
  demand.	
  The	
  model	
  varies	
  demand	
  while	
  
minimizing	
  the	
  percent	
  of	
  customers	
  who	
  are	
  being	
  denied	
  a	
  spot	
  to	
  charge.	
  We	
  provided	
  three	
  
tolerance	
  levels	
  for	
  blocking	
  customers	
  (3%,	
  5%	
  and	
  10%).	
  In	
  each	
  model,	
  when	
  the	
  number	
  of	
  
customers	
  blocked	
  goes	
  over	
  the	
  tolerance	
  level	
  we	
  acquire	
  another	
  station.	
  (See	
  Appendix	
  B.3	
  for	
  
further	
  detail	
  on	
  the	
  queuing	
  model).	
  

Determining	
  the	
  Optimal	
  Number	
  of	
  Stations	
  	
  

During	
  stage	
  one	
  the	
  city	
  of	
  Evanston	
  should	
  aim	
  to	
  meet	
  all	
  the	
  demand	
  that	
  comes	
  into	
  the	
  garage.	
  
Therefore	
  for	
  this	
  initial	
  stage,	
  we	
  recommend	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  to	
  adopt	
  the	
  first	
  tolerance	
  level	
  
simulation	
  model	
  (3%	
  blockage	
  rate).The	
  graph	
  below	
  shows	
  the	
  optimal	
  number	
  of	
  stations	
  to	
  acquire	
  
as	
  charges	
  per	
  day	
  increases:	
  

	
  

Graph	
  1:	
  Optimal	
  number	
  of	
  stations	
  needed	
  to	
  meet	
  97%	
  of	
  charges	
  per	
  day	
  




                                                                                                                                                                 	
  

We	
  recommend	
  the	
  city	
  of	
  Evanston	
  to	
  acquire	
  for	
  this	
  initial	
  stage	
  2	
  stations.	
  We	
  believe	
  this	
  is	
  the	
  best	
  
way	
  to	
  start	
  since	
  2	
  stations	
  will	
  meet	
  97%	
  of	
  demand	
  until	
  the	
  charges	
  go	
  up	
  to	
  5	
  per	
  day.	
  If	
  we	
  acquire	
  
1	
  station	
  the	
  city	
  will	
  be	
  forced	
  to	
  acquire	
  a	
  second	
  one	
  shortly	
  after	
  (after	
  0.8	
  charges	
  a	
  day).	
  
Furthermore,	
  in	
  this	
  initial	
  stage	
  we	
  want	
  the	
  city	
  to	
  establish	
  a	
  strong	
  first	
  impression	
  by	
  minimizing	
  
the	
  amount	
  of	
  customers	
  they	
  cannot	
  serve.	
  This	
  initial	
  target	
  to	
  meet	
  97%	
  of	
  demand	
  shows	
  that	
  the	
  
city	
  is	
  seriously	
  committed	
  to	
  the	
  electric	
  vehicle	
  initiative.	
  

The	
  graph	
  provided	
  above	
  will	
  allow	
  the	
  city	
  to	
  monitor	
  the	
  charges	
  per	
  day	
  as	
  time	
  goes	
  by	
  and	
  adapt	
  
the	
  number	
  of	
  stations	
  as	
  they	
  see	
  fit.	
  We	
  are	
  also	
  providing	
  the	
  graphs	
  for	
  both	
  the	
  5%	
  and	
  10%	
  
tolerance	
  levels	
  (See	
  Appendix	
  B.3).	
  These	
  two	
  other	
  tolerance	
  levels	
  will	
  be	
  useful	
  when	
  demand	
  starts	
  
to	
  pick	
  up	
  and	
  the	
  city	
  can	
  now	
  afford	
  to	
  turn	
  away	
  a	
  slightly	
  larger	
  customer	
  base.	
  

Another	
  factor	
  the	
  city	
  should	
  monitor	
  is	
  the	
  utilization	
  of	
  each	
  machine.	
  This	
  is	
  necessary	
  since	
  there	
  
are	
  risks	
  to	
  running	
  machines	
  at	
  full	
  capacity.	
  When	
  machines	
  are	
  in	
  continuous	
  use	
  they	
  are	
  more	
  likely	
  
to	
  break	
  down,	
  and	
  the	
  rest	
  of	
  the	
  system	
  tends	
  to	
  be	
  extremely	
  dependent	
  and	
  unstable.	
  	
  At	
  a	
  3%	
  
utilization	
  tolerance	
  level	
  we	
  have	
  the	
  following	
  utilization	
  graph:	
  

	
  

	
                                                                                                                                                                         8	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  

Graph	
  2:	
  Utilization	
  of	
  Level	
  1	
  and	
  Level	
  2	
  stations	
  as	
  charges	
  per	
  day	
  increases	
  




                                                                                                                                                   	
  

As	
  demand	
  increases,	
  the	
  utilization	
  of	
  the	
  stations	
  will	
  increase.	
  However,	
  is	
  important	
  to	
  point	
  out	
  that	
  
at	
  certain	
  points	
  in	
  the	
  graph	
  utilization	
  declines	
  reflecting	
  the	
  exact	
  point	
  a	
  new	
  station	
  was	
  acquired.	
  
When	
  a	
  new	
  station	
  is	
  acquired,	
  the	
  new	
  machine	
  temporarily	
  alleviates	
  the	
  utilization	
  of	
  the	
  entire	
  set	
  
of	
  stations	
  until	
  demand	
  catches	
  up	
  again.	
  

We	
  do	
  not	
  recommend	
  running	
  the	
  stations	
  at	
  a	
  utilization	
  rate	
  higher	
  than	
  90%,	
  as	
  mentioned	
  earlier.	
  
Therefore,	
  when	
  demand	
  reaches	
  7.5	
  charges	
  per	
  day,	
  the	
  city	
  should	
  not	
  only	
  have	
  the	
  appropriate	
  
number	
  of	
  stations	
  (6	
  according	
  to	
  the	
  graph	
  above),	
  but	
  they	
  should	
  also	
  consider	
  expanding	
  to	
  other	
  
facilities	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  capture	
  the	
  increased	
  demand.	
  




	
                                                                                                                                                          9	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  



Stage	
  2:	
  Scalable	
  Growth	
  
	
  

New	
  Technologies	
  
As	
  the	
  market	
  for	
  EVs	
  increase,	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  should	
  consider	
  investing	
  in	
  DC	
  (quick	
  charging)	
  
stations,	
  which	
  are	
  already	
  available	
  in	
  the	
  market.	
  This	
  type	
  of	
  charging	
  station	
  is	
  able	
  to	
  charge	
  cars	
  in	
  
approximately	
  30	
  minutes,	
  making	
  EVs	
  more	
  appealing	
  to	
  customers.	
  Taking	
  into	
  consideration	
  the	
  high	
  
cost	
  of	
  the	
  machine,	
  the	
  small	
  number	
  of	
  current	
  demand,	
  and	
  certain	
  compatibility	
  issues	
  with	
  the	
  
available	
  electrical	
  vehicles,	
  we	
  recommend	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  to	
  consider	
  this	
  investment	
  as	
  a	
  future	
  
implementation.	
  	
  

Currently	
  the	
  Chicago	
  Metro	
  Area	
  is	
  installing	
  73	
  DC	
  charging	
  stations	
  that	
  should	
  be	
  available	
  to	
  the	
  
public	
  by	
  the	
  end	
  of	
  2011.	
  This	
  is	
  why	
  we	
  recommend	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  to	
  watch	
  the	
  usage	
  of	
  these	
  
stations	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  any	
  expansion	
  that	
  might	
  take	
  place.	
  The	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  should	
  make	
  this	
  
investment	
  decision	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  keep	
  up	
  with	
  market’s	
  needs.	
  	
  It	
  is	
  important	
  that	
  any	
  decision	
  made	
  is	
  
based	
  on	
  the	
  current	
  demand,	
  using	
  the	
  provided	
  chart,	
  which	
  explains	
  the	
  number	
  of	
  machines	
  needed	
  
given	
  the	
  demand	
  (See	
  Graph	
  1).	
  	
  	
  

If	
  such	
  an	
  investment	
  is	
  made,	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  should	
  consider	
  implementing	
  these	
  stations	
  first	
  in	
  
the	
  Maple	
  Garage,	
  since	
  customers	
  who	
  park	
  their	
  cars	
  for	
  a	
  shorter	
  time	
  mostly	
  frequent	
  it,	
  given	
  the	
  
amount	
  of	
  surrounding	
  local	
  businesses.	
  Having	
  these	
  stations	
  in	
  the	
  garages	
  will	
  help	
  increase	
  the	
  
amount	
  of	
  traffic	
  in	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston.	
  	
  

Pricing	
  Strategy	
  
With	
  increased	
  demand	
  the	
  CoE	
  might	
  start	
  charging	
  a	
  fee	
  for	
  the	
  use	
  of	
  the	
  charging	
  stations	
  and	
  
therefore	
  collect	
  revenue	
  form	
  charging	
  sessions.	
  However,	
  due	
  to	
  the	
  young	
  stage	
  of	
  the	
  technology	
  and	
  
the	
  uncertainty	
  of	
  the	
  market,	
  we	
  cannot	
  predict	
  when	
  the	
  CoE	
  can	
  start	
  applying	
  a	
  fee	
  for	
  the	
  use	
  of	
  the	
  
charging	
  stations.	
  

We	
  suggest	
  sensitivity	
  to	
  the	
  pricing	
  behavior	
  of	
  other	
  charging	
  station	
  owners	
  in	
  the	
  Chicago	
  area	
  and	
  
adjust	
  accordingly.	
  In	
  addition,	
  to	
  assist	
  the	
  CoE	
  in	
  making	
  the	
  right	
  pricing	
  decision	
  when	
  the	
  time	
  
comes,	
  we	
  are	
  providing	
  the	
  CoE	
  with	
  matrix	
  tables	
  showing	
  how	
  applying	
  different	
  fees	
  per	
  hour	
  of	
  
charging	
  will	
  affect	
  their	
  costs,	
  revenues	
  and	
  profits	
  based	
  on	
  different	
  levels	
  of	
  demand	
  (See	
  tables	
  
B.1.3,	
  B.1.4,	
  B.1.5,	
  B.1.6	
  in	
  the	
  Appendix).	
  

The	
  following	
  two	
  graphs	
  summarize	
  the	
  results	
  of	
  our	
  financial	
  discounted	
  payback	
  analysis	
  
considering	
  different	
  levels	
  of	
  fee	
  rates	
  per	
  hour	
  of	
  charge.	
  	
  

	
  

	
  

	
  

	
  

	
  

	
  
	
                                                                                                                                                                 10	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  

	
  




                                                                                                                                                    	
  




                                                                                                                                                           	
  

New	
  Places	
  to	
  expand	
  	
  
Given	
  our	
  recommendation	
  of	
  initially	
  installing	
  2	
  charging	
  stations,	
  this	
  section	
  will	
  look	
  into	
  new	
  
places	
  to	
  expand	
  in	
  the	
  future.	
  For	
  simplicity,	
  this	
  section	
  will	
  ignore	
  payback	
  periods	
  for	
  the	
  initial	
  2	
  
stations	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  the	
  decision	
  to	
  start	
  collecting	
  fees	
  for	
  users	
  to	
  charge	
  their	
  EV,	
  hence	
  only	
  expected	
  
yearly	
  changes	
  in	
  demand	
  would	
  be	
  analyzed.	
  

The	
  original	
  scope	
  of	
  the	
  project	
  included	
  the	
  Sherman	
  Plaza	
  Parking	
  Garage	
  as	
  the	
  second	
  garage	
  where	
  
charging	
  stations	
  would	
  be	
  installed.	
  Given	
  the	
  noticeable	
  higher	
  logistical	
  costs	
  involved	
  in	
  installing	
  
the	
  stations	
  at	
  that	
  location,	
  we	
  decided	
  to	
  ignore	
  this	
  parking	
  garage	
  from	
  the	
  stage	
  1	
  
recommendations.	
  As	
  soon	
  as	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  decides	
  to	
  expand	
  out	
  of	
  the	
  1800	
  Maple	
  Avenue	
  
garage,	
  our	
  first	
  suggestion	
  would	
  be	
  to	
  install	
  1	
  or	
  more	
  stations	
  in	
  the	
  821	
  Davis	
  Street	
  garage.	
  The	
  
number	
  of	
  stations	
  would	
  depend	
  on	
  the	
  current	
  demand	
  for	
  EV	
  stations,	
  given	
  by	
  our	
  included	
  
simulation	
  results.	
  Installing	
  stations	
  in	
  this	
  garage	
  will	
  not	
  only	
  create	
  a	
  more	
  adequate	
  supply	
  for	
  
customers,	
  but	
  it	
  will	
  also	
  enable	
  a	
  different	
  customer	
  segment	
  to	
  get	
  easy	
  access	
  to	
  charging.	
  People	
  
living	
  in	
  the	
  Sherman	
  Apartment	
  building	
  could	
  get	
  to	
  charge	
  their	
  EVs	
  while	
  being	
  in	
  their	
  apartment,	
  
opening	
  up	
  an	
  entire	
  new	
  dynamic	
  to	
  the	
  way	
  charging	
  stations	
  would	
  be	
  used.	
  	
  
	
                                                                                                                                                                11	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  

A	
  second	
  option	
  of	
  expansion	
  would	
  be	
  to	
  install	
  charging	
  stations	
  in	
  strategic	
  curbside	
  parking	
  spots	
  
around	
  Evanston.	
  This	
  move	
  would	
  also	
  increase	
  the	
  customer	
  base	
  by	
  enabling	
  people	
  who	
  normally	
  
do	
  not	
  use	
  parking	
  garages	
  to	
  charge	
  their	
  EVs	
  in	
  a	
  convenient	
  location	
  for	
  them.	
  	
  

Installing	
  parking	
  garages	
  in	
  the	
  rest	
  of	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  owned	
  parking	
  garages	
  could	
  be	
  considered	
  
the	
  last	
  logical	
  step	
  for	
  the	
  completion	
  of	
  this	
  program.	
  The	
  City	
  would	
  also	
  need	
  to	
  keep	
  in	
  mind	
  that	
  a	
  
good	
  promotional	
  job	
  for	
  these	
  new	
  stations	
  is	
  a	
  crucial	
  factor	
  for	
  the	
  success	
  of	
  the	
  expansion	
  program.	
  
If	
  people	
  do	
  not	
  know	
  they	
  are	
  there,	
  they	
  will	
  not	
  be	
  used.	
  Following	
  the	
  recommended	
  promotional	
  
strategies	
  in	
  this	
  report	
  would	
  be	
  an	
  ideal	
  way	
  of	
  getting	
  the	
  same	
  result	
  when	
  adding	
  stations	
  around	
  
Evanston.	
  

Metrics	
  for	
  how	
  to	
  expand	
  	
  
One	
  of	
  the	
  goals	
  of	
  our	
  analysis	
  is	
  to	
  provide	
  the	
  CoE	
  with	
  information	
  about	
  how	
  to	
  expand.	
  There	
  are	
  
two	
  metrics	
  the	
  city	
  can	
  use	
  to	
  determine	
  when	
  to	
  purchase	
  additional	
  charging	
  stations:	
  blocked	
  
customer	
  limits	
  and	
  marginal	
  station	
  benefits.	
  	
  

As	
  long	
  as	
  the	
  focus	
  is	
  on	
  encouraging	
  demand	
  we	
  recommend	
  a	
  3%	
  blocked	
  customer	
  limit.	
  Under	
  this	
  
metric,	
  the	
  CoE	
  purchases	
  stations	
  as	
  needed	
  to	
  ensure	
  that	
  no	
  more	
  than	
  3%	
  of	
  customers	
  are	
  turned	
  
away	
  because	
  stations	
  are	
  in	
  use.	
  	
  Note	
  that	
  we	
  have	
  also	
  included	
  analysis	
  at	
  the	
  5%	
  and	
  10%	
  level	
  
should	
  the	
  CoE	
  choose	
  to	
  relax	
  this	
  limit.	
  	
  

The	
  second	
  metric	
  is	
  applicable	
  when	
  the	
  City	
  feels	
  demand	
  is	
  on	
  a	
  stable	
  trajectory.	
  At	
  this	
  stage	
  we	
  
recommend	
  purchasing	
  stations	
  based	
  on	
  the	
  lost	
  revenue	
  of	
  customers	
  turned	
  away.	
  When	
  this	
  amount	
  
exceeds	
  the	
  cost	
  of	
  an	
  additional	
  station	
  it	
  is	
  logical	
  to	
  purchase	
  an	
  additional	
  station.	
  These	
  purchase	
  
points	
  are	
  highly	
  sensitive	
  to	
  changes	
  in	
  costs	
  and	
  fees	
  charged	
  by	
  Evanston.	
  For	
  example,	
  a	
  change	
  in	
  
electricity	
  costs,	
  or	
  an	
  increase	
  in	
  the	
  willingness-­‐to-­‐pay	
  of	
  EV	
  owners	
  could	
  both	
  drastically	
  change	
  the	
  
results.	
  Therefore	
  we	
  have	
  focused	
  our	
  analysis	
  on	
  providing	
  information	
  for	
  multiple	
  scenarios.	
  This	
  
analysis	
  can	
  be	
  seen	
  in	
  the	
  previous	
  sections	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  in	
  the	
  appendix.	
  	
  	
  	
  

	
  

	
  

	
  




	
                                                                                                                                                                  12	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  



Stage	
  3:	
  Future	
  Possibilities	
  
Expansion	
  	
  
When	
  the	
  market	
  has	
  increased	
  considerably,	
  requiring	
  more	
  charging	
  stations	
  than	
  existent	
  in	
  Maple	
  
and	
  Sherman	
  Garages,	
  we	
  recommend	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  to	
  consider	
  installing	
  charging	
  stations	
  in	
  
other	
  available	
  locations;	
  either	
  within	
  garages	
  or	
  outdoors.	
  This	
  future	
  step	
  is	
  very	
  important	
  in	
  order	
  
to	
  increase	
  the	
  market	
  by	
  offering	
  variety	
  in	
  charging	
  locations	
  and	
  potentially	
  increasing	
  commuters	
  in	
  
the	
  Evanston	
  area.	
  	
  

New	
  technology	
  
If	
  expansion	
  in	
  outdoor	
  stations	
  takes	
  place,	
  we	
  recommend	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  look	
  into	
  solar	
  
charging	
  stations,	
  which	
  are	
  already	
  on	
  the	
  market.	
  By	
  installing	
  these	
  kinds	
  of	
  stations,	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  
Evanston	
  would	
  be	
  contributing	
  to	
  Evanston’s	
  goal	
  of	
  decreasing	
  it’s	
  carbon	
  footprint,	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  help	
  
reduce	
  electricity	
  costs	
  throughout	
  the	
  whole	
  system.	
  This	
  would	
  also	
  help	
  brand	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  as	
  
a	
  leader	
  in	
  innovation,	
  gaining	
  prestige	
  throughout	
  surrounding	
  counties,	
  which	
  could	
  help	
  the	
  City	
  
create	
  some	
  sort	
  of	
  branding	
  for	
  future	
  projects.	
  	
  	
  

Leasing	
  to	
  Private	
  Companies	
  	
  
To	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  should	
  consider	
  bringing	
  private	
  companies	
  to	
  operate	
  the	
  charging	
  stations.	
  It	
  is	
  
likely	
  that	
  at	
  this	
  stage	
  of	
  demand	
  private	
  businesses	
  already	
  play	
  a	
  significant	
  role	
  in	
  the	
  market.	
  This	
  
possibility	
  could	
  be	
  implemented	
  when	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  has	
  broken-­‐even	
  from	
  the	
  initial	
  
investments.	
  At	
  this	
  stage	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  would	
  no	
  longer	
  need	
  to	
  dedicate	
  as	
  much	
  attention	
  to	
  
encouraging	
  adoption	
  of	
  EV	
  technology,	
  and	
  can	
  turn	
  it	
  over	
  to	
  private	
  enterprise	
  for	
  management.	
  
Furthermore,	
  as	
  the	
  number	
  of	
  stations	
  increase	
  they	
  become	
  a	
  larger	
  management	
  issue	
  perhaps	
  better	
  
suited	
  to	
  be	
  run	
  by	
  a	
  separate	
  organization.	
  This	
  strategy	
  would	
  create	
  revenue	
  for	
  the	
  City	
  since	
  it	
  
would	
  cut	
  off	
  operational	
  expenses	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  potentially	
  earn	
  commissions	
  from	
  the	
  gross	
  revenues	
  the	
  
company	
  make,	
  opening	
  other	
  opportunities	
  for	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  to	
  invest	
  in	
  different	
  projects.	
  	
  

Assessing	
  the	
  State	
  of	
  the	
  Grid	
  	
  
Although	
  it	
  might	
  be	
  considered	
  a	
  distant	
  scenario,	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  may	
  have	
  to	
  consider	
  the	
  
position	
  and	
  capacity	
  of	
  the	
  electric	
  grid.	
  When	
  demand	
  is	
  higher,	
  if	
  several	
  charging	
  stations	
  were	
  
added	
  without	
  taking	
  in	
  consideration	
  the	
  state	
  of	
  the	
  grid,	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  would	
  exceed	
  the	
  
available	
  capacity	
  and	
  potentially	
  cause	
  failure	
  in	
  the	
  system,	
  incurring	
  more	
  costs.	
  Looking	
  into	
  
alternative	
  sources	
  of	
  electricity	
  (such	
  as	
  solar	
  charging	
  stations)	
  might	
  help	
  alleviate	
  this.	
  	
  

Risks	
  	
  
The	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  industry	
  as	
  a	
  whole	
  is	
  entirely	
  new,	
  which	
  brings	
  about	
  additional	
  risks	
  and	
  
problems	
  that	
  more	
  established	
  industries	
  do	
  not	
  have.	
  What	
  we	
  consider	
  to	
  be	
  the	
  most	
  important	
  risk	
  
is	
  the	
  fact	
  that	
  demand	
  forecasting	
  is	
  extremely	
  limited	
  right	
  now.	
  Many	
  particular	
  factors	
  could	
  
influence	
  how	
  the	
  market	
  reacts	
  to	
  EVs,	
  which	
  in	
  turn	
  will	
  have	
  great	
  influence	
  on	
  the	
  demand	
  for	
  EV	
  
charging	
  stations.	
  This	
  is	
  one	
  factor	
  that	
  cannot	
  be	
  stressed	
  enough:	
  Demand	
  for	
  EV	
  charging	
  stations	
  
have	
  a	
  positive	
  correlation	
  with	
  the	
  demand	
  for	
  EVs.	
  	
  

	
  

	
                                                                                                                                                          13	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  

Uncertain	
  Demand	
  

The	
  rise	
  in	
  oil	
  prices	
  and	
  the	
  expectancy	
  that	
  they	
  will	
  continue	
  to	
  rise	
  in	
  the	
  future	
  will	
  have	
  a	
  positive	
  
impact	
  on	
  the	
  demand	
  for	
  EV	
  charging	
  stations,	
  as	
  consumers	
  realize	
  that	
  making	
  the	
  shift	
  to	
  an	
  EV	
  can	
  
save	
  money	
  and	
  is	
  also	
  beneficial	
  to	
  the	
  environment.	
  Although	
  this	
  is	
  a	
  positive	
  thing	
  for	
  the	
  
sustainability	
  initiative	
  in	
  Evanston,	
  there	
  is	
  no	
  way	
  to	
  certainly	
  tell	
  how	
  the	
  rise	
  in	
  oil	
  prices	
  will	
  affect	
  
the	
  demand	
  for	
  EV	
  charging	
  stations	
  beforehand,	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  be	
  able	
  to	
  make	
  the	
  changes	
  necessary.	
  This	
  
risk	
  may	
  lead	
  to	
  an	
  over-­‐	
  or	
  under-­‐capacity	
  of	
  charging	
  stations	
  in	
  1800	
  Maple	
  Avenue	
  and	
  a	
  tardiness	
  in	
  
installing	
  new	
  stations	
  elsewhere.	
  

The	
  financial	
  recommendations	
  put	
  forth	
  in	
  this	
  document	
  rely	
  on	
  several	
  assumptions,	
  each	
  of	
  which	
  is	
  
capable	
  of	
  disrupting	
  our	
  results.	
  For	
  example,	
  if	
  the	
  cost	
  of	
  electricity	
  increases,	
  the	
  cost	
  of	
  charging	
  
would	
  increase,	
  which	
  in	
  turn	
  would	
  delay	
  the	
  payback	
  period	
  as	
  the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  would	
  be	
  
recouping	
  less	
  money	
  each	
  year	
  than	
  previously	
  expected.	
  Similarly,	
  if	
  there	
  are	
  more	
  frequent	
  illegal	
  
parking	
  and	
  overtime	
  tickets	
  on	
  the	
  reserved	
  spaces	
  for	
  the	
  stations,	
  the	
  revenue	
  would	
  increase,	
  
reducing	
  the	
  payback	
  period.	
  The	
  possibility	
  of	
  these	
  different	
  scenarios	
  has	
  been	
  taken	
  into	
  account	
  in	
  
our	
  calculations,	
  but	
  the	
  fact	
  that	
  there	
  have	
  never	
  been	
  privileged	
  parking	
  spaces	
  for	
  EV	
  charging	
  
stations	
  leaves	
  rooms	
  for	
  unexpected	
  consequences	
  during	
  their	
  operation.	
  	
  

Emerging	
  Technology	
  

We	
  are	
  in	
  the	
  first	
  generation	
  of	
  electric	
  vehicles.	
  The	
  possibility	
  of	
  a	
  malfunction	
  or	
  a	
  necessary	
  callback	
  
from	
  part	
  of	
  the	
  manufacturer	
  is	
  still	
  relatively	
  high	
  compared	
  to	
  gasoline	
  vehicles.	
  This	
  could	
  affect	
  the	
  
demand	
  for	
  stations	
  in	
  two	
  ways:	
  Delivering	
  a	
  major	
  hit	
  to	
  demand	
  if	
  such	
  a	
  situation	
  would	
  occur	
  to	
  a	
  
EV	
  model	
  or	
  the	
  existence	
  of	
  too	
  many	
  consumers	
  who	
  decide	
  to	
  wait	
  more	
  time	
  before	
  buying	
  an	
  EV	
  to	
  
assure	
  that	
  manufacturers	
  are	
  delivering	
  on	
  their	
  promises.	
  	
  

In	
  a	
  similar	
  vein,	
  because	
  the	
  technology	
  is	
  only	
  now	
  emerging,	
  it	
  is	
  likely	
  to	
  change	
  rapidly	
  and	
  
unexpectedly.	
  For	
  this	
  reason,	
  throughout	
  our	
  recommendations	
  we	
  emphasize	
  monitoring	
  technology	
  
change	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  avoid	
  making	
  clumsy	
  or	
  inflexible	
  investments	
  that	
  cannot	
  then	
  be	
  recouped.	
  	
  

Variable	
  Market	
  Pricing	
  

Lastly,	
  it	
  is	
  expected	
  that	
  letting	
  customers	
  charge	
  their	
  EV	
  for	
  free	
  will	
  not	
  be	
  the	
  modus	
  operandi	
  for	
  a	
  
long	
  time.	
  As	
  more	
  businesses	
  and	
  capital	
  flow	
  into	
  this	
  industry,	
  the	
  costs	
  of	
  operating	
  these	
  stations	
  
will	
  be	
  passed	
  on	
  to	
  the	
  consumer	
  by	
  charging	
  a	
  price.	
  This	
  implementation	
  would	
  greatly	
  reduce	
  our	
  
projected	
  payback	
  period	
  for	
  the	
  EV	
  charging	
  station	
  investment.	
  Even	
  without	
  charging	
  customers	
  to	
  
charge	
  their	
  EV,	
  our	
  model	
  shows	
  that	
  you	
  could	
  make	
  back	
  the	
  investment.	
  The	
  risk	
  here	
  is	
  the	
  fact	
  that	
  
the	
  City	
  of	
  Evanston	
  can	
  never	
  be	
  100%	
  sure	
  of	
  what	
  the	
  payback	
  period	
  will	
  be,	
  since	
  whether	
  or	
  not	
  to	
  
charge	
  a	
  price	
  and	
  what	
  price	
  that	
  may	
  be	
  will	
  be	
  dictated	
  by	
  market	
  forces,	
  which	
  may	
  take	
  time	
  to	
  
reach	
  price	
  equilibrium.	
  

	
  

	
  

	
  




	
                                                                                                                                                                    14	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  


Appendices	
  
A.	
  Research	
  	
  
A.1	
  Vendors	
  	
  
	
                            Carbon	
  Day	
  	
                            Car	
  Charging	
  	
  	
  Group	
  	
        350	
  Green	
  LLC	
  	
  

Business	
  Model	
  	
       Sells	
  charging	
  stations	
  to	
          Leases	
  parking	
  space	
  and	
           Leases	
  parking	
  space	
  
                              client.	
  The	
  client	
  takes	
            takes	
  care	
  of	
  installation,	
        and	
  takes	
  care	
  of	
  
                              take	
  care	
  of	
  installation,	
          operation	
  and	
  maintenance	
             installation,	
  operation	
  
                              operating,	
  and	
                            of	
  the	
  charging	
  stations	
           and	
  maintenance	
  of	
  the	
  
                              maintenance	
  costs.	
                                                                      charging	
  stations	
  
Costs	
  	
                   • Product:	
  Approx.	
  $5-­‐6K	
             None	
  	
                                    Depending	
  on	
  project	
  
                                per	
  station	
                                                                           size	
  an	
  upfront	
  
                              • Installation:	
  Approx.	
                                                                 investment	
  would	
  be	
  
                                $2,500	
  for	
  2	
  stations	
                                                           required	
  
                              • Billing	
  +Customer	
  
                                service:	
  $15/month	
  per	
  
                                station	
  
                              • 7.5%	
  	
  of	
  the	
  gross	
  
                                revenue	
  +	
  $0.5	
  for	
  
                                every	
  transaction	
  
Pros	
  	
                    • Allows	
  to	
  control	
                    • 6	
  months	
  trial	
  (starting	
         More	
  flexibility	
  in	
  
                                pricing	
  and	
  access	
  to	
               with	
  1	
  station)	
                     technology	
  used	
  
                                stations	
                                   • The	
  city	
  would	
  collect	
  5%	
  
                              • Allows	
  collection	
  of	
                   from	
  total	
  revenue	
  
                                revenue	
                                    • No	
  upfront	
  payment	
  or	
  
                              • Consolidated,	
  relatively	
                  installation/operating	
  
                                large	
  market	
  in	
  the	
                 costs	
  
                                Midwest	
  
                              • Installers	
  and	
  
                                maintainers	
  (Revcon)	
  
                                already	
  familiar	
  with	
  
                                parking	
  garages	
  
Cons	
  	
                    • Upfront	
  investment	
  is	
                • No	
  control	
  over	
  pricing	
          • No	
  control	
  over	
  
                                needed,	
  increasing	
  risks	
               ($3/hour	
  today.	
  $2.5/hour	
               pricing	
  (Pricing	
  not	
  
                              • The	
  City	
  will	
  need	
  to	
            by	
  next	
  year)	
                           available	
  until	
  August	
  
                                assign	
  workforce	
  for	
                 • Limited	
  control	
  over	
                    2011)	
  
                                maintaining	
  and	
                           logistics	
  (which	
  and	
  how	
         • Limited	
  control	
  over	
  
                                operating	
  the	
  stations	
                 many	
  parking	
  spaces	
  to	
               logistics	
  (which	
  and	
  
                                                                               use)	
                                          how	
  many	
  parking	
  
                                                                                                                               spaces	
  to	
  use)	
  
                                                                                                                           • Possibility	
  of	
  an	
  
                                                                                                                               upfront	
  investment	
  
                                                                                                                               required,	
  thus	
  
                                                                                                                               increasing	
  risk.	
  
                                                                                                                           • Many	
  partners	
  but	
  
                                                                                                                               few	
  installations	
  done	
  
Product	
  	
                 Coulomb	
  Technologies:	
                     Coulomb	
  Technologies:	
                    AeroVironment:	
  Level	
  
                              Level	
  1,	
  2,	
  and	
  DC/quick	
         Level	
  1,	
  2,	
                           1	
  and	
  2	
  
                              charge	
  stations	
  

	
                                                                                                                                                         15	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  

                              	
  
Information	
  	
             • Leaders	
  in	
  the	
  Midwest	
   • Miami-­‐based	
                      • San	
  Diego-­‐based	
  
                                   (150	
  stations	
  today,	
      • Has	
  some	
  projects	
  in	
     • Won	
  the	
  Chicago	
  
                                   250-­‐300	
  forecasted	
  by	
      Chicago	
  (Equity	
                 project	
  (280	
  stations	
  
                                   the	
  end	
  of	
  2011)	
          Residential)	
                       by	
  2011)	
  
                              • Exclusive	
  distributor	
  of	
   	
  
                                   Coulomb	
  Technologies	
  
                                   for	
  the	
  Midwest	
  
                              • Warranty	
  on	
  parts	
  and	
  
                                   labor:	
  1	
  year	
  
	
  




	
                                                                                                                                      16	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  


A.2	
  Technology	
  
	
  




                                                   	
  

Figure	
  1.	
  Dual	
  Level	
  Charging	
  Station	
  	
  

Charging	
  Station	
  Specifications	
  




                                                                                          	
  



	
                                                                               17	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  


A.3	
  Current	
  and	
  Upcoming	
  Electric	
  Cars	
  	
  
	
  

A.3.1	
  Plug-­‐In	
  Hybrids	
  	
  

	
                                                Chevy	
  Volt	
  	
                                   Toyota	
  Prius	
  	
  (in	
  2012)	
  

Range	
  	
                                       640	
  (40	
  on	
  battery)	
                        600	
  (6	
  on	
  battery)	
  

Top	
  Speed	
  (mph)	
                           100	
                                                 106	
  

Time	
  to	
  charge	
  	
                        5	
                                                   2	
  

	
  

A.3.2	
  Electric	
  Cars	
  	
  

	
                              Tesla	
  Roadster	
         Nissan	
  Leaf	
  	
     Th!nk	
  City	
                        Ford	
  Focus	
  	
  

Range	
  	
                     244	
                       75	
                     124	
                                  100	
  

Top	
  Speed	
                  125	
                       89	
                     65	
                                   85	
  
(mph)	
  	
  

Time	
  to	
  Charge	
  	
   3.5	
                          8	
                      10	
                                   6	
  

	
  
A.3.3	
  Comparison	
  between	
  Plug-­‐In	
  Hybrids	
  and	
  Electric	
  Cars	
  	
  	
  

       	
  	
                                                                                  Nissan	
  Leaf	
  (EV)	
                             Chevy	
  Volt	
  (PHEV)	
  

       	
  	
                                                                          Level	
  1	
                    Level	
  2	
            Level	
  1	
          Level	
  2	
  

       Battery	
  Capacity	
  (kWh)	
                                                          24	
                        24	
                      16	
                16	
  

       Charge	
  Voltage	
                                                                    120	
                       220	
                     120	
              220	
  

       	
  	
                                                                                    	
                           	
                        	
                 	
  

       Charge	
  Current	
                                                                     15	
                        15	
                      15	
                15	
  

       kW	
                                                                                   1.8	
                        3.3	
                     1.8	
              3.3	
  

       Charging	
  time	
  (full	
  charge)	
                                             13.3	
                           7.3	
                     8.9	
              4.8	
  

	
  
	
  




	
                                                                                                                                                                         18	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  


B.	
  Analysis	
  	
  
	
  
B.1	
  Pricing	
  and	
  Financial	
  Analysis	
  	
  
	
  

Financial	
  Model	
  

Our	
  financial	
  model	
  is	
  based	
  on	
  the	
  following	
  sources	
  of	
  revenues	
  and	
  costs	
  and	
  assumptions:	
  	
  

Revenues	
  

•      Charging	
  Sessions	
  	
  

Revenue	
   can	
   be	
   collected	
   from	
   applying	
   a	
   fee	
   for	
   the	
   use	
   of	
   the	
   EV	
   charging	
   stations.	
   The	
   charging	
  
stations	
   manufactured	
   by	
   Coulomb	
   Technologies	
   allow	
   the	
   CoE	
   to	
   remotely	
   configure	
   the	
   charging	
   fee	
  
on	
  a	
  session	
  or	
  hour	
  basis.	
  	
  

•      Parking	
  Violation	
  Tickets	
  

Parking	
  tickets	
  will	
  be	
  given	
  based	
  on	
  two	
  types	
  of	
  parking	
  violations:	
  

Overtime	
   Parking:	
   tickets	
   will	
   be	
   given	
   to	
   violators	
   who	
   will	
   fail	
   to	
   remove	
   their	
   vehicle	
   after	
   the	
   30-­‐
minute	
  grace	
  period	
  following	
  the	
  time	
  when	
  the	
  vehicle	
  is	
  fully	
  charged.	
  

Illegal	
   Parking:	
   	
   tickets	
   will	
   be	
   given	
   to	
   violators	
   who	
   will	
   park	
   in	
   the	
   spots	
   reserved	
   for	
   EV	
   charging	
  
without	
  charging	
  their	
  vehicles	
  

Costs	
  

•      EV	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  

The	
  following	
  cost	
  estimates	
  were	
  obtained	
  from	
  Brian	
  Levin,	
  vice-­‐president	
  of	
  Carbon	
  Day	
  

Fixed	
  

                    Coulomb	
  Technologies	
  Charging	
  Station	
  Cost	
                                                            $5,000.00	
  
                    Installation	
  Cost	
                                                                                              $2,500.00	
  
                    Annual	
  Network	
  Fee	
                                                                                          $180.00	
  

                    5	
  yr	
  Extended	
  Warranty	
                                                                                   $1,300.00	
  
                    Federal	
  Tax	
  Credit	
  @	
  30%	
                                                                              $(2,250.00)	
  

                    Total	
  Cost	
  per	
  Station	
                                                                                   $6,730.00	
  
Variable	
                 	
  
                    Authorization	
  Fee	
  per	
  Charging	
  Session	
                             $0.50	
  
                                                                                                     7.5%	
  of	
  the	
  gross	
  revenue	
  per	
  
                    Processing	
  Fee	
  per	
  Charging	
  Session	
  
                                                                                                     charging	
  session	
  

	
           	
  

	
  

	
                                                                                                                                                                            19	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  

•        Electricity	
  

$0.05	
   per	
   kWh	
   was	
   used	
   in	
   our	
   model	
   since	
   that	
   is	
   the	
   cost	
   of	
   electricity	
   that	
   CoE	
   will	
   fix	
   for	
   the	
   next	
  
years	
  with	
  its	
  electricity	
  provider,	
  ComEd.	
  

Based	
  on	
  the	
  preceding	
  cost	
  estimates	
  and	
  the	
  following	
  assumptions	
  on	
  charging	
  sessions,	
  an	
  average	
  
charging	
   session	
   lasting	
   3.4	
   hours	
   without	
   processing	
   fee	
   applied	
   will	
   cost	
   $0.99	
   	
   ($0.49	
   for	
   electricity	
   +	
  
$0.5	
  for	
  the	
  authorization	
  fee)	
  :	
  

[20%*(5	
  hr)*(1.8	
  kW)+80%*(3hr)*(3.3	
  kW)]*[0.05	
  $/kwH]	
  +	
  $0.5	
  =	
  $0.99	
  

Assumptions	
  

•        Charging	
  sessions	
  

The	
  model	
  assumes	
  that	
  all	
  the	
  demand	
  is	
  met.	
  

Based	
  on	
  the	
  results	
  of	
  the	
  queuing	
  simulations,	
  a	
  single	
  charging	
  session	
  was	
  modeled	
  as	
  follows:	
  

       	
  	
                                                                                  Level	
  1	
        Level	
  2	
                                 	
  
       Probability	
  of	
  occurrence	
  	
                                                    20%	
               80%	
                                       	
  
       Voltage	
  (V)	
                                                                          120	
                220	
                                     	
  
       Current	
  (A)	
                                                                          15	
                 15	
                                      	
  
       Power	
  (kW)	
                                                                            1.8	
                3.3	
              =Voltage/Current*1000	
  
       Charging	
  session	
  (hour)	
                                                              5	
                 3	
                                     	
  
	
  
•       Parking	
  Violation	
  Tickets	
  
        	
  
       Overtime	
  parking	
                                                            	
  
       Overtime	
  parking	
  ticket	
  fee	
                                           $30	
  
       Tickets	
  issued	
  	
                                                          1	
  every	
  30	
  charges	
  
       Illegal	
  parking	
                                                             	
  
       Illegal	
  parking	
  ticket	
  fee	
                                            $200	
  
       Tickets	
  issued	
                                                              1	
  every	
  500	
  charges	
  
	
  

Illegal	
  parking	
  tickets	
  are	
  modeled	
  based	
  on	
  the	
  tickets	
  currently	
  given	
  to	
  violators	
  who	
  illegally	
  park	
  on	
  
the	
  handicapped	
  parking	
  spaces	
  in	
  our	
  two	
  target	
  garages:	
  Maple	
  and	
  Sherman	
  Plaza.	
  

Overtime	
  Parking	
  tickets	
  are	
  modeled	
  based	
  on	
  the	
  1-­‐hr	
  maximum	
  parking	
  spaces	
  in	
  the	
  Maple	
  garage.	
  
As	
  estimated	
  by	
  Mark	
  Turenne,	
  Parking	
  Facilities	
  Supervisor	
  for	
  the	
  CoE,	
  1	
  to	
  3	
  tickets	
  are	
  issued	
  every	
  
week	
   and	
   considering	
   that	
   the	
   Maple	
   garage	
   has	
   25	
   1-­‐hr	
   maximum	
   parking	
   spaces,	
   a	
   total	
   capacity	
   of	
  
1400	
  spaces	
  and	
  5595	
  cars	
  entering	
  the	
  garage	
  per	
  week,	
  we	
  could	
  estimate	
  that:	
  

A	
  ticket	
  will	
  be	
  given	
  every	
  3	
  *	
  (25/1400)*5595	
  =	
  33.3	
  ~	
  30	
  customers	
  	
  




	
                                                                                                                                                                                       20	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  

Financial	
  Results	
  and	
  Analysis	
  	
  

Our	
   financial	
   Analysis	
   was	
   conducted	
   through	
   two	
   different	
   scenarios:	
   Free	
   Charging	
   and	
   Charging	
   for	
   a	
  
Fee.	
  Both	
  scenarios	
  present	
  cost,	
  revenue	
  and	
  profit	
  estimates	
  modeled	
  using	
  the	
  demand	
  growth	
  rate	
  of	
  
12%	
   calculated	
   in	
   our	
   demand	
   projection	
   analysis	
   (see	
   Appendix	
   B.2).	
   Also	
   for	
   both	
   scenarios,	
   we	
  
conducted	
  a	
  discounted	
  payback	
  analysis	
  using	
  a	
  discount	
  rate	
  of	
  5%.	
  

Free	
  Charging	
  Scenario	
  

This	
  scenario	
  assumes	
  that	
  the	
  CoE	
  applies	
  no	
  fee	
  for	
  the	
  use	
  of	
  the	
  charging	
  stations.	
  

The	
  following	
  graphs	
  showing	
  the	
  financial	
  results	
  for	
  the	
  Free	
  Charging	
  Scenario	
  are	
  generated	
  using	
  
the	
  data	
  reported	
  in	
  table	
  B.1.1	
  




                                                                                                                                                        	
  




                                                                                                                                                        	
  

	
  

	
  

	
  


	
                                                                                                                                                             21	
  
Feasibility	
  Study	
  for	
  Electric	
  Vehicle	
  Charging	
  Stations	
  

                             	
                                                  Discounted	
  Payback	
  Period	
  

                             1st	
  Station	
                                                 41	
  years	
  

                             2nd	
  Station	
                                                 51	
  years	
  

	
  

Despite	
  the	
  extremely	
  large	
  discounted	
  payback	
  period,	
  it	
  should	
  be	
  noted	
  that	
  even	
  without	
  applying	
  a	
  
fee	
  to	
  EV	
  drivers	
  for	
  the	
  use	
  of	
  the	
  stations,	
  we	
  estimate	
  that	
  the	
  CoE	
  will	
  incur	
  a	
  positive	
  discounted	
  
operational	
  profit	
  meaning	
  that	
  the	
  we	
  forecast	
  that	
  the	
  cost	
  of	
  electricity	
  and	
  additional	
  operational	
  
costs	
  of	
  operating	
  the	
  stations	
  will	
  be	
  completely	
  covered	
  by	
  the	
  revenue	
  generated	
  from	
  enforcing	
  
parking	
  violation	
  tickets.	
  

	
  




	
                                                                                                                                                               22	
  
Ie 393 final report   ev charging evanston-STUDENT GENERATED
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Ie 393 final report   ev charging evanston-STUDENT GENERATED
Ie 393 final report   ev charging evanston-STUDENT GENERATED
Ie 393 final report   ev charging evanston-STUDENT GENERATED
Ie 393 final report   ev charging evanston-STUDENT GENERATED
Ie 393 final report   ev charging evanston-STUDENT GENERATED
Ie 393 final report   ev charging evanston-STUDENT GENERATED
Ie 393 final report   ev charging evanston-STUDENT GENERATED
Ie 393 final report   ev charging evanston-STUDENT GENERATED
Ie 393 final report   ev charging evanston-STUDENT GENERATED
Ie 393 final report   ev charging evanston-STUDENT GENERATED
Ie 393 final report   ev charging evanston-STUDENT GENERATED
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Ie 393 final report   ev charging evanston-STUDENT GENERATED

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Ie 393 final report ev charging evanston-STUDENT GENERATED

  • 1.       Northwestern  University   IEMS  393   Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle   Charging  Stations  in  Evanston,  Illinois             Ximena  Arias,  Carolina  Pardo,  Harsha  Patel,  Stefano  Pianura,  Santiago  Valdez     June  2,  2011        
  • 2. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations   Table  of  Contents   INTRODUCTION   3   EXECUTIVE  SUMMARY   4   STAGE  1:  EARLY  IMPLEMENTATION   5   VENDOR  AND  TECHNOLOGY   5   RECOMMENDED  VENDOR  AND  TECHNOLOGY   5   PRICING  STRATEGY   5   KEY  FINANCIAL  CONSIDERATIONS   6   PROMOTIONAL  STRATEGY   7   LOGISTICS:  QUEUING  MODEL   8   STAGE  2:  SCALABLE  GROWTH   10   NEW  TECHNOLOGIES   10   PRICING  STRATEGY   10   NEW  PLACES  TO  EXPAND   11   METRICS  FOR  HOW  TO  EXPAND   12   STAGE  3:  FUTURE  POSSIBILITIES   13   EXPANSION   13   NEW  TECHNOLOGY   13   LEASING  TO  PRIVATE  COMPANIES   13   ASSESSING  THE  STATE  OF  THE  GRID   13   RISKS   13   APPENDICES   15   A.  RESEARCH   15   B.  ANALYSIS   19   B.1  PRICING  AND  FINANCIAL  ANALYSIS   19   B.2  DEMAND  GROWTH   31   B.3  QUEUING  MODEL   33     2  
  • 3. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations   Introduction     The  following  report  contains  a  compilation  of  our  recommendations  for  the  City  of  Evanston’s  Electric   Vehicle  Charging  Station  implementations.  Throughout  the  course  of  our  work  with  the  CoE’s   Sustainability  Office  we  enjoyed  learning  about  the  project  and  exploring  its  potential  for  success  and   growth.     The  high  level  of  foresight  and  initiative  the  CoE  has  taken  with  regards  to  Electric  Vehicles  has  greatly   impressed  our  team.  Our  hope  is  that  these  recommendations  and  deliverables  will  facilitate  this  growth   and  foresight,  helping  translate  ideas  into  action  in  the  near  future.  With  this  goal  in  mind  we  have   structured  our  report  and  deliverables  to  aid  and  inform  CoE’s  decisions,  with  an  emphasis  on  practical   planning  and  analysis.  More  detailed  quantitative  and  academic  research  is  provided  as  a  supplement  to   the  more  practical,  user-­‐centered  portions  of  the  report.     Report  Structure   We  have  divided  this  report  into  three  sections,  corresponding  to  three  stages  of  implementation  for  EV   charging  station  implementation.         An  appendix  supplements  the  report  with  further  detail  on  analysis  and  research,  as  well  as  suggestions   for  further  exploration.       3  
  • 4. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations   Executive  Summary     Stage  1:  Early  Implementation   Goal   Encourage  EV  technology  adoption  and  brand  Evanston  as  a  green  and  forward-­‐looking  city.     Installation     Purchase  two  dual  level  (Level  1&2)  Coulomb  Technologies  Charging  Stations  through  Carbon  Day  vendor   Why?     -­‐ Ownership  of  the  stations  allows  control  over  pricing  decisions   -­‐ Two  stations  will  meet  at  least  97%  of  demand  up  to  five  charges  per  day  on  average   Location   1800  St.  Maple  Parking  Garage   Why?   -­‐ Maple  Garage’s  internal  wiring  allows  a  lower  cost  installation   -­‐ Less  disruption  of  existing  traffic  flow   -­‐ More  exposure  and  visibility  to  Evanston  Community   Publicity   • Offer  free  charging  until  competitors  start  applying  a  fee  for  charging  EVs   • Invest  in  signs  and  publicity   • Partner  with  iGo  and  local  businesses   Why?       -­‐ Ensure  visitors  to  the  garage  know  there  is  an  EV  charging  station  available,  and  are  able  to  find  it   -­‐ Spread  the  word  to  the  broader  community  that  Evanston  is  an  early  adopter  of  this  technology   Financial   • The  estimated  cost  for  purchase  and  installation  of  two  stations  is  $13,500.   Considerations   • We  recommend  enforcing  two  types  of  parking  violation  tickets:   • $30  for  overtime  parking   • $200  for  illegal  parking   • Estimated  revenue  from  parking  tickets  will  cover  electrical  and  other  operating  costs.     • In  this  stage  the  stations  are  not  profitable,  and  instead  act  as  a  promoter  of  growth  and  an   investment   Stage  2:  Scalable  Growth   Goal   Make  the  appropriate  expansion  and  pricing  decisions  based  on  a  monitored  level  of  demand   Expansion   Monitor  demand,  use  provided  metrics  to  respond.  Expand  into  Sherman  Plaza  Garage   Strategy    Why?  To  avoid  turning  away  more  than  3%  of  potential  chargers,  we  provide  indicators  that  Evanston  can   use  to  determine  when  to  purchase  an  additional  charging  station   Pricing  Strategy   Refer  to  our  pricing  guide  to  learn  how  applying  different  fees  per  hour  of  charging  will  affect  financial   estimates  and  payback  periods   Maintain   Watch  for  technology  adaptation.  For  example,  the  state  of  the  technology  of  DC  Fast  Charging  stations  as   Flexibility   plausible  solutions  for  installation  on  strategic  curbside  parking  spots   Stage  3:  Future  Possibilities   Goal   Plan  for  long-­‐term  risks,  challenges,  and  opportunities.  Take  advantage  of  emerging  technologies.   Expansion   • Consider  expanding  to  outside  street  parking   Possibilities   • Implementing  solar  charging  stations  or  other  renewable  energy  sources   • Giving  charging  station  concessions  to  private  companies   • Asses  the  state  of  the  grid   Pricing  Strategy   At  this  stage,  pricing  will  likely  be  dominated  by  market  forces.  Set  prices  to  competitive  levels.       4  
  • 5. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations   Stage  1:  Early  Implementation     Vendor  and  Technology   Although  we  considered  the  possibility  of  the  City  of  Evanston  leasing  its  parking  spaces  to  a  private   company  in  order  to  decrease  any  expenses  or  risks,  we  ultimately  recommend  that  the  CoE  buy  and   operate  their  own  charging  stations  (See  Appendix  A.1  for  Vendors).  Owning  and  operating  the  EV   charging  stations  will  allow  the  CoE  to  control  charging  rates  and  number  of  stations  without  harming   their  customers.     Recommended  Vendor  and  Technology   Carbon  Day  is  an  Illinois-­‐based  company  and  the  biggest  distributor  of  Coulomb  Technology  charging   stations  in  the  Midwest.  Their  technology  uses  ChargePoint®  Network,  which  allows  the  City  of   Evanston  to  closely  monitor  the  charging  station’s  operations  and  tailor  pricing  strategies  with  a  high   degree  of  control.   Coulomb  Technology  offers  the  3  types  of  charging  levels,  allowing  charges  in  an  enclosed  space   (garage):  Level  1,  2,  and  DC  Quick  Charging.  We  recommend  the  City  of  Evanston  to  acquire  charging   stations  that  offer  dual  levels,  level  1  and  2,  allowing  two  cars  to  charge  simultaneously.  (See  Appendix   A.2  for  Technology)  Given  the  early  stage  of  the  project  and  size  of  the  current  market,  we  recommend   avoiding  DC:  Quick  Charging  stations,  given  their  high  upfront  cost  and  installation  expenses,  as  well  as   potential  compatibility  issues  with  existing  EV  cars  on  the  market.  Each  dual  charging  station  has  a  cost   of  $5,000  and  an  approximate  installation  cost  of  $2,500;  costs  are  explained  thoroughly  in  the   upcoming  sections.     Although  charging  time  varies  among  types  of  cars,  a  Level  1  station  charges  a  car  in  approximately  8-­‐13   hours  and  uses  120  Volts.  Level  2  charging  stations  require  4-­‐8  hours  to  charge  a  car  and  use  208-­‐240   Volts.  (See  Appendix  A.3  for  current  cars  in  the  market).     Pricing  Strategy     For  the  initial  stage,  we  recommend  EV  charging  stations  be  free  for  use.  There  are  two  main  reasons   why  we  recommend  adopting  this  strategy.  Firstly,  we  believe  that  charging  a  fee  can  be   counterproductive  to  the  main  goal  for  this  initial  stage:  encouraging  the  adoption  of  EV  technology  and   sending  a  message  of  sustainability  and  social  responsibility.  In  fact,  offering  free  charging  will  be  an   incentive  for  current  EV  drivers  to  park  in  the  garage  or  for  potential  EV  buyers  to  consider  acquiring  an   EV.  Secondly,  due  to  the  small  market  size  for  EVs  and  the  young  stage  of  the  technology,  offering  free   charging  will  not  constitute  a  large  source  of  lost  revenues;  In  fact,  this  is  the  strategy  that  is  currently   adopted  by  the  large  majority  of  EV  charging  stations’  owners  in  the  United  States,  including  those  in  the   Chicago  area.   Because  in  this  initial  stage  the  charging  stations  won’t  generate  revenue  directly,  we  considered  an   alternative  source  of  revenue:  parking  violation  tickets.    Particularly  we  recommend  the  CoE  enforce  the   following  two  types  of  parking  violation  tickets  (please  see  Appendix  B.1  for  more  details  on  the   financial  model):   1.  Overtime  Parking  Tickets:  tickets  given  to  violators  who  fail  to  remove  their  vehicle  after  the   30-­‐minute  grace  period  following  the  time  when  the  vehicle  is  fully  charged  (the  EV  driver  will   receive  an  e-­‐mail  or  SMS  notification  for  charging  complete)     5  
  • 6. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations   2. Illegal  Parking  Tickets:    tickets  given  to  violators  who  park  in  the  spots  reserved  for  EV  charging   without  charging  their  vehicles.     Key  Financial  Considerations   The  estimated  cost  for  the  purchase  and  installation  of  two  EV  charging  stations  is  $13,460.  This  amount   includes  a  5-­‐year  extended  warranty,  an  annual  network  fee  and  a  30%  federal  tax  credit.   The  cost  of  operating  the  stations  will  depend  on  the  EV  model  and  the  level  of  charging.  An  average   charging  session  lasting  3.4  hours  without  processing  fee  applied  will  cost  $0.99    ($0.49  for  electricity  +   $0.5  for  the  vendor’s  authorization  fee)  (see  Appendix  B.1  for  more  details  on  the  financial  model)   We  estimated  that  even  without  applying  a  fee  for  the  use  of  the  charging  stations,  electrical  costs  and   additional  costs  of  operating  the  charging  stations  would  be  fully  covered  by  revenues  generated  from   parking  violation  tickets.  This  is  illustrated  by  the  following  graph  showing  annual  costs  and  revenues   from  operations  based  on  different  levels  of  demand  (see  Appendix  B.1  for  more  details  on  our  financial   analysis  for  the  Free  Charging  Scenario).         6  
  • 7. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations   Promotional  Strategy     A  crucial  criterion  for  the  success  of  Stage  1  is  the  effectiveness  of  the  promotional  strategy.  First  and   foremost,  people  who  live  or  work  in  the  city  of  Evanston  need  to  be  aware  of  charging  stations  in  the   1800  Maple  Avenue  parking  garage.  There  are  a  few  simple  ways  to  do  this:     1.  A  clear  and  visible  sign  should  be  put  up  on  the  outside  wall  of  the  entrance  of  the  parking   garage.  Further  signs  should  be  installed  inside  to  guide  potential  users  to  the  charging  stations.  Using   white  and  green  colors  could  also  serve  as  a  way  to  show  drivers  that  this  was  a  green  initiative  started   by  the  city.       2.  A  series  of  broadcasted  announcements  on  the  radio  about  the  inauguration  of  the  stations,   with  the  locations  and  rate  of  operation,  would  also  help  alert  Evanston  of  this  development.     3.  An  announcement  or  even  a  brief  article  explaining  the  new  developments  would  also  help   inform  people.   Potential  Partnerships   Another  potentially  valuable  promotional  strategy  is  to  find  strategic  partners  who  could  also  benefit   from  the  EV  charging  stations.  An  ideal  candidate  would  be  I-­‐Go  Car  Sharing.  The  company  recently   released  an  announcement  stating  their  desire  to  put  as  many  as  30  EVs  on  the  road  by  the  end  of  2011.     A  partnership  with  I-­‐Go  presents  several  advantages.  From  a  marketing  point  of  view,  each  I-­‐Go  car   services  many  users,  increasing  the  “audience”  of  residents  that  can  experience  the  technology.  Further,   I-­‐Go  can  act  as  a  stable  customer  of  the  stations,  potentially  providing  an  initial  stream  of  revenue.   Car  dealerships  are  another  potential  partner.  They  stand  to  benefit  from  the  added  infrastructure  by  an   increase  in  car  sales,  and  as  a  result  may  be  willing  to  share  some  of  the  burden  of  advertisement,  or   even  installation  costs.  Equally  important,  car  dealerships  can  serve  as  a  source  of  information  to   residents  thinking  of  buying  an  EV.  Keeping  car  dealerships  aware  of  charging  capabilities  in  Evanston   helps  ensure  that  the  information  gets  to  the  residents  who  need  it  most.       The  City  of  Evanston  could  also  look  into  implementing  a  similar  process  of  ticket  validation  that  is   already  in  place  in  some  restaurants,  shops  and  theaters  close  to  this  parking  garage.  This  way,  people   with  EV  would  get  that  extra  privilege,  thus  bringing  in  more  revenue  from  those  shoppers  and   rewarding  people  who  made  the  change.     7  
  • 8. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations   Logistics:  Queuing  Model       Since  demand  for  the  charging  station  is  uncertain  we  relied  on  simulation  in  order  to  determine  the   optimal  number  of  stations  to  acquire  for  a  given  level  of  demand.  The  model  varies  demand  while   minimizing  the  percent  of  customers  who  are  being  denied  a  spot  to  charge.  We  provided  three   tolerance  levels  for  blocking  customers  (3%,  5%  and  10%).  In  each  model,  when  the  number  of   customers  blocked  goes  over  the  tolerance  level  we  acquire  another  station.  (See  Appendix  B.3  for   further  detail  on  the  queuing  model).   Determining  the  Optimal  Number  of  Stations     During  stage  one  the  city  of  Evanston  should  aim  to  meet  all  the  demand  that  comes  into  the  garage.   Therefore  for  this  initial  stage,  we  recommend  the  City  of  Evanston  to  adopt  the  first  tolerance  level   simulation  model  (3%  blockage  rate).The  graph  below  shows  the  optimal  number  of  stations  to  acquire   as  charges  per  day  increases:     Graph  1:  Optimal  number  of  stations  needed  to  meet  97%  of  charges  per  day     We  recommend  the  city  of  Evanston  to  acquire  for  this  initial  stage  2  stations.  We  believe  this  is  the  best   way  to  start  since  2  stations  will  meet  97%  of  demand  until  the  charges  go  up  to  5  per  day.  If  we  acquire   1  station  the  city  will  be  forced  to  acquire  a  second  one  shortly  after  (after  0.8  charges  a  day).   Furthermore,  in  this  initial  stage  we  want  the  city  to  establish  a  strong  first  impression  by  minimizing   the  amount  of  customers  they  cannot  serve.  This  initial  target  to  meet  97%  of  demand  shows  that  the   city  is  seriously  committed  to  the  electric  vehicle  initiative.   The  graph  provided  above  will  allow  the  city  to  monitor  the  charges  per  day  as  time  goes  by  and  adapt   the  number  of  stations  as  they  see  fit.  We  are  also  providing  the  graphs  for  both  the  5%  and  10%   tolerance  levels  (See  Appendix  B.3).  These  two  other  tolerance  levels  will  be  useful  when  demand  starts   to  pick  up  and  the  city  can  now  afford  to  turn  away  a  slightly  larger  customer  base.   Another  factor  the  city  should  monitor  is  the  utilization  of  each  machine.  This  is  necessary  since  there   are  risks  to  running  machines  at  full  capacity.  When  machines  are  in  continuous  use  they  are  more  likely   to  break  down,  and  the  rest  of  the  system  tends  to  be  extremely  dependent  and  unstable.    At  a  3%   utilization  tolerance  level  we  have  the  following  utilization  graph:       8  
  • 9. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations   Graph  2:  Utilization  of  Level  1  and  Level  2  stations  as  charges  per  day  increases     As  demand  increases,  the  utilization  of  the  stations  will  increase.  However,  is  important  to  point  out  that   at  certain  points  in  the  graph  utilization  declines  reflecting  the  exact  point  a  new  station  was  acquired.   When  a  new  station  is  acquired,  the  new  machine  temporarily  alleviates  the  utilization  of  the  entire  set   of  stations  until  demand  catches  up  again.   We  do  not  recommend  running  the  stations  at  a  utilization  rate  higher  than  90%,  as  mentioned  earlier.   Therefore,  when  demand  reaches  7.5  charges  per  day,  the  city  should  not  only  have  the  appropriate   number  of  stations  (6  according  to  the  graph  above),  but  they  should  also  consider  expanding  to  other   facilities  in  order  to  capture  the  increased  demand.     9  
  • 10. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations   Stage  2:  Scalable  Growth     New  Technologies   As  the  market  for  EVs  increase,  the  City  of  Evanston  should  consider  investing  in  DC  (quick  charging)   stations,  which  are  already  available  in  the  market.  This  type  of  charging  station  is  able  to  charge  cars  in   approximately  30  minutes,  making  EVs  more  appealing  to  customers.  Taking  into  consideration  the  high   cost  of  the  machine,  the  small  number  of  current  demand,  and  certain  compatibility  issues  with  the   available  electrical  vehicles,  we  recommend  the  City  of  Evanston  to  consider  this  investment  as  a  future   implementation.     Currently  the  Chicago  Metro  Area  is  installing  73  DC  charging  stations  that  should  be  available  to  the   public  by  the  end  of  2011.  This  is  why  we  recommend  the  City  of  Evanston  to  watch  the  usage  of  these   stations  as  well  as  any  expansion  that  might  take  place.  The  City  of  Evanston  should  make  this   investment  decision  in  order  to  keep  up  with  market’s  needs.    It  is  important  that  any  decision  made  is   based  on  the  current  demand,  using  the  provided  chart,  which  explains  the  number  of  machines  needed   given  the  demand  (See  Graph  1).       If  such  an  investment  is  made,  the  City  of  Evanston  should  consider  implementing  these  stations  first  in   the  Maple  Garage,  since  customers  who  park  their  cars  for  a  shorter  time  mostly  frequent  it,  given  the   amount  of  surrounding  local  businesses.  Having  these  stations  in  the  garages  will  help  increase  the   amount  of  traffic  in  the  City  of  Evanston.     Pricing  Strategy   With  increased  demand  the  CoE  might  start  charging  a  fee  for  the  use  of  the  charging  stations  and   therefore  collect  revenue  form  charging  sessions.  However,  due  to  the  young  stage  of  the  technology  and   the  uncertainty  of  the  market,  we  cannot  predict  when  the  CoE  can  start  applying  a  fee  for  the  use  of  the   charging  stations.   We  suggest  sensitivity  to  the  pricing  behavior  of  other  charging  station  owners  in  the  Chicago  area  and   adjust  accordingly.  In  addition,  to  assist  the  CoE  in  making  the  right  pricing  decision  when  the  time   comes,  we  are  providing  the  CoE  with  matrix  tables  showing  how  applying  different  fees  per  hour  of   charging  will  affect  their  costs,  revenues  and  profits  based  on  different  levels  of  demand  (See  tables   B.1.3,  B.1.4,  B.1.5,  B.1.6  in  the  Appendix).   The  following  two  graphs  summarize  the  results  of  our  financial  discounted  payback  analysis   considering  different  levels  of  fee  rates  per  hour  of  charge.                   10  
  • 11. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations         New  Places  to  expand     Given  our  recommendation  of  initially  installing  2  charging  stations,  this  section  will  look  into  new   places  to  expand  in  the  future.  For  simplicity,  this  section  will  ignore  payback  periods  for  the  initial  2   stations  as  well  as  the  decision  to  start  collecting  fees  for  users  to  charge  their  EV,  hence  only  expected   yearly  changes  in  demand  would  be  analyzed.   The  original  scope  of  the  project  included  the  Sherman  Plaza  Parking  Garage  as  the  second  garage  where   charging  stations  would  be  installed.  Given  the  noticeable  higher  logistical  costs  involved  in  installing   the  stations  at  that  location,  we  decided  to  ignore  this  parking  garage  from  the  stage  1   recommendations.  As  soon  as  the  City  of  Evanston  decides  to  expand  out  of  the  1800  Maple  Avenue   garage,  our  first  suggestion  would  be  to  install  1  or  more  stations  in  the  821  Davis  Street  garage.  The   number  of  stations  would  depend  on  the  current  demand  for  EV  stations,  given  by  our  included   simulation  results.  Installing  stations  in  this  garage  will  not  only  create  a  more  adequate  supply  for   customers,  but  it  will  also  enable  a  different  customer  segment  to  get  easy  access  to  charging.  People   living  in  the  Sherman  Apartment  building  could  get  to  charge  their  EVs  while  being  in  their  apartment,   opening  up  an  entire  new  dynamic  to  the  way  charging  stations  would  be  used.       11  
  • 12. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations   A  second  option  of  expansion  would  be  to  install  charging  stations  in  strategic  curbside  parking  spots   around  Evanston.  This  move  would  also  increase  the  customer  base  by  enabling  people  who  normally   do  not  use  parking  garages  to  charge  their  EVs  in  a  convenient  location  for  them.     Installing  parking  garages  in  the  rest  of  the  City  of  Evanston  owned  parking  garages  could  be  considered   the  last  logical  step  for  the  completion  of  this  program.  The  City  would  also  need  to  keep  in  mind  that  a   good  promotional  job  for  these  new  stations  is  a  crucial  factor  for  the  success  of  the  expansion  program.   If  people  do  not  know  they  are  there,  they  will  not  be  used.  Following  the  recommended  promotional   strategies  in  this  report  would  be  an  ideal  way  of  getting  the  same  result  when  adding  stations  around   Evanston.   Metrics  for  how  to  expand     One  of  the  goals  of  our  analysis  is  to  provide  the  CoE  with  information  about  how  to  expand.  There  are   two  metrics  the  city  can  use  to  determine  when  to  purchase  additional  charging  stations:  blocked   customer  limits  and  marginal  station  benefits.     As  long  as  the  focus  is  on  encouraging  demand  we  recommend  a  3%  blocked  customer  limit.  Under  this   metric,  the  CoE  purchases  stations  as  needed  to  ensure  that  no  more  than  3%  of  customers  are  turned   away  because  stations  are  in  use.    Note  that  we  have  also  included  analysis  at  the  5%  and  10%  level   should  the  CoE  choose  to  relax  this  limit.     The  second  metric  is  applicable  when  the  City  feels  demand  is  on  a  stable  trajectory.  At  this  stage  we   recommend  purchasing  stations  based  on  the  lost  revenue  of  customers  turned  away.  When  this  amount   exceeds  the  cost  of  an  additional  station  it  is  logical  to  purchase  an  additional  station.  These  purchase   points  are  highly  sensitive  to  changes  in  costs  and  fees  charged  by  Evanston.  For  example,  a  change  in   electricity  costs,  or  an  increase  in  the  willingness-­‐to-­‐pay  of  EV  owners  could  both  drastically  change  the   results.  Therefore  we  have  focused  our  analysis  on  providing  information  for  multiple  scenarios.  This   analysis  can  be  seen  in  the  previous  sections  as  well  as  in  the  appendix.                 12  
  • 13. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations   Stage  3:  Future  Possibilities   Expansion     When  the  market  has  increased  considerably,  requiring  more  charging  stations  than  existent  in  Maple   and  Sherman  Garages,  we  recommend  the  City  of  Evanston  to  consider  installing  charging  stations  in   other  available  locations;  either  within  garages  or  outdoors.  This  future  step  is  very  important  in  order   to  increase  the  market  by  offering  variety  in  charging  locations  and  potentially  increasing  commuters  in   the  Evanston  area.     New  technology   If  expansion  in  outdoor  stations  takes  place,  we  recommend  the  City  of  Evanston  look  into  solar   charging  stations,  which  are  already  on  the  market.  By  installing  these  kinds  of  stations,  the  City  of   Evanston  would  be  contributing  to  Evanston’s  goal  of  decreasing  it’s  carbon  footprint,  as  well  as  help   reduce  electricity  costs  throughout  the  whole  system.  This  would  also  help  brand  the  City  of  Evanston  as   a  leader  in  innovation,  gaining  prestige  throughout  surrounding  counties,  which  could  help  the  City   create  some  sort  of  branding  for  future  projects.       Leasing  to  Private  Companies     To  City  of  Evanston  should  consider  bringing  private  companies  to  operate  the  charging  stations.  It  is   likely  that  at  this  stage  of  demand  private  businesses  already  play  a  significant  role  in  the  market.  This   possibility  could  be  implemented  when  the  City  of  Evanston  has  broken-­‐even  from  the  initial   investments.  At  this  stage  the  City  of  Evanston  would  no  longer  need  to  dedicate  as  much  attention  to   encouraging  adoption  of  EV  technology,  and  can  turn  it  over  to  private  enterprise  for  management.   Furthermore,  as  the  number  of  stations  increase  they  become  a  larger  management  issue  perhaps  better   suited  to  be  run  by  a  separate  organization.  This  strategy  would  create  revenue  for  the  City  since  it   would  cut  off  operational  expenses  as  well  as  potentially  earn  commissions  from  the  gross  revenues  the   company  make,  opening  other  opportunities  for  the  City  of  Evanston  to  invest  in  different  projects.     Assessing  the  State  of  the  Grid     Although  it  might  be  considered  a  distant  scenario,  the  City  of  Evanston  may  have  to  consider  the   position  and  capacity  of  the  electric  grid.  When  demand  is  higher,  if  several  charging  stations  were   added  without  taking  in  consideration  the  state  of  the  grid,  the  City  of  Evanston  would  exceed  the   available  capacity  and  potentially  cause  failure  in  the  system,  incurring  more  costs.  Looking  into   alternative  sources  of  electricity  (such  as  solar  charging  stations)  might  help  alleviate  this.     Risks     The  Electric  Vehicle  industry  as  a  whole  is  entirely  new,  which  brings  about  additional  risks  and   problems  that  more  established  industries  do  not  have.  What  we  consider  to  be  the  most  important  risk   is  the  fact  that  demand  forecasting  is  extremely  limited  right  now.  Many  particular  factors  could   influence  how  the  market  reacts  to  EVs,  which  in  turn  will  have  great  influence  on  the  demand  for  EV   charging  stations.  This  is  one  factor  that  cannot  be  stressed  enough:  Demand  for  EV  charging  stations   have  a  positive  correlation  with  the  demand  for  EVs.         13  
  • 14. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations   Uncertain  Demand   The  rise  in  oil  prices  and  the  expectancy  that  they  will  continue  to  rise  in  the  future  will  have  a  positive   impact  on  the  demand  for  EV  charging  stations,  as  consumers  realize  that  making  the  shift  to  an  EV  can   save  money  and  is  also  beneficial  to  the  environment.  Although  this  is  a  positive  thing  for  the   sustainability  initiative  in  Evanston,  there  is  no  way  to  certainly  tell  how  the  rise  in  oil  prices  will  affect   the  demand  for  EV  charging  stations  beforehand,  in  order  to  be  able  to  make  the  changes  necessary.  This   risk  may  lead  to  an  over-­‐  or  under-­‐capacity  of  charging  stations  in  1800  Maple  Avenue  and  a  tardiness  in   installing  new  stations  elsewhere.   The  financial  recommendations  put  forth  in  this  document  rely  on  several  assumptions,  each  of  which  is   capable  of  disrupting  our  results.  For  example,  if  the  cost  of  electricity  increases,  the  cost  of  charging   would  increase,  which  in  turn  would  delay  the  payback  period  as  the  City  of  Evanston  would  be   recouping  less  money  each  year  than  previously  expected.  Similarly,  if  there  are  more  frequent  illegal   parking  and  overtime  tickets  on  the  reserved  spaces  for  the  stations,  the  revenue  would  increase,   reducing  the  payback  period.  The  possibility  of  these  different  scenarios  has  been  taken  into  account  in   our  calculations,  but  the  fact  that  there  have  never  been  privileged  parking  spaces  for  EV  charging   stations  leaves  rooms  for  unexpected  consequences  during  their  operation.     Emerging  Technology   We  are  in  the  first  generation  of  electric  vehicles.  The  possibility  of  a  malfunction  or  a  necessary  callback   from  part  of  the  manufacturer  is  still  relatively  high  compared  to  gasoline  vehicles.  This  could  affect  the   demand  for  stations  in  two  ways:  Delivering  a  major  hit  to  demand  if  such  a  situation  would  occur  to  a   EV  model  or  the  existence  of  too  many  consumers  who  decide  to  wait  more  time  before  buying  an  EV  to   assure  that  manufacturers  are  delivering  on  their  promises.     In  a  similar  vein,  because  the  technology  is  only  now  emerging,  it  is  likely  to  change  rapidly  and   unexpectedly.  For  this  reason,  throughout  our  recommendations  we  emphasize  monitoring  technology   change  in  order  to  avoid  making  clumsy  or  inflexible  investments  that  cannot  then  be  recouped.     Variable  Market  Pricing   Lastly,  it  is  expected  that  letting  customers  charge  their  EV  for  free  will  not  be  the  modus  operandi  for  a   long  time.  As  more  businesses  and  capital  flow  into  this  industry,  the  costs  of  operating  these  stations   will  be  passed  on  to  the  consumer  by  charging  a  price.  This  implementation  would  greatly  reduce  our   projected  payback  period  for  the  EV  charging  station  investment.  Even  without  charging  customers  to   charge  their  EV,  our  model  shows  that  you  could  make  back  the  investment.  The  risk  here  is  the  fact  that   the  City  of  Evanston  can  never  be  100%  sure  of  what  the  payback  period  will  be,  since  whether  or  not  to   charge  a  price  and  what  price  that  may  be  will  be  dictated  by  market  forces,  which  may  take  time  to   reach  price  equilibrium.           14  
  • 15. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations   Appendices   A.  Research     A.1  Vendors       Carbon  Day     Car  Charging      Group     350  Green  LLC     Business  Model     Sells  charging  stations  to   Leases  parking  space  and   Leases  parking  space   client.  The  client  takes   takes  care  of  installation,   and  takes  care  of   take  care  of  installation,   operation  and  maintenance   installation,  operation   operating,  and   of  the  charging  stations   and  maintenance  of  the   maintenance  costs.   charging  stations   Costs     • Product:  Approx.  $5-­‐6K   None     Depending  on  project   per  station   size  an  upfront   • Installation:  Approx.   investment  would  be   $2,500  for  2  stations   required   • Billing  +Customer   service:  $15/month  per   station   • 7.5%    of  the  gross   revenue  +  $0.5  for   every  transaction   Pros     • Allows  to  control   • 6  months  trial  (starting   More  flexibility  in   pricing  and  access  to   with  1  station)   technology  used   stations   • The  city  would  collect  5%   • Allows  collection  of   from  total  revenue   revenue   • No  upfront  payment  or   • Consolidated,  relatively   installation/operating   large  market  in  the   costs   Midwest   • Installers  and   maintainers  (Revcon)   already  familiar  with   parking  garages   Cons     • Upfront  investment  is   • No  control  over  pricing   • No  control  over   needed,  increasing  risks   ($3/hour  today.  $2.5/hour   pricing  (Pricing  not   • The  City  will  need  to   by  next  year)   available  until  August   assign  workforce  for   • Limited  control  over   2011)   maintaining  and   logistics  (which  and  how   • Limited  control  over   operating  the  stations   many  parking  spaces  to   logistics  (which  and   use)   how  many  parking   spaces  to  use)   • Possibility  of  an   upfront  investment   required,  thus   increasing  risk.   • Many  partners  but   few  installations  done   Product     Coulomb  Technologies:   Coulomb  Technologies:   AeroVironment:  Level   Level  1,  2,  and  DC/quick   Level  1,  2,   1  and  2   charge  stations     15  
  • 16. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations     Information     • Leaders  in  the  Midwest   • Miami-­‐based   • San  Diego-­‐based   (150  stations  today,   • Has  some  projects  in   • Won  the  Chicago   250-­‐300  forecasted  by   Chicago  (Equity   project  (280  stations   the  end  of  2011)   Residential)   by  2011)   • Exclusive  distributor  of     Coulomb  Technologies   for  the  Midwest   • Warranty  on  parts  and   labor:  1  year       16  
  • 17. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations   A.2  Technology       Figure  1.  Dual  Level  Charging  Station     Charging  Station  Specifications       17  
  • 18. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations   A.3  Current  and  Upcoming  Electric  Cars       A.3.1  Plug-­‐In  Hybrids       Chevy  Volt     Toyota  Prius    (in  2012)   Range     640  (40  on  battery)   600  (6  on  battery)   Top  Speed  (mph)   100   106   Time  to  charge     5   2     A.3.2  Electric  Cars       Tesla  Roadster   Nissan  Leaf     Th!nk  City   Ford  Focus     Range     244   75   124   100   Top  Speed   125   89   65   85   (mph)     Time  to  Charge     3.5   8   10   6     A.3.3  Comparison  between  Plug-­‐In  Hybrids  and  Electric  Cars           Nissan  Leaf  (EV)   Chevy  Volt  (PHEV)       Level  1   Level  2   Level  1   Level  2   Battery  Capacity  (kWh)   24   24   16   16   Charge  Voltage   120   220   120   220               Charge  Current   15   15   15   15   kW   1.8   3.3   1.8   3.3   Charging  time  (full  charge)   13.3   7.3   8.9   4.8         18  
  • 19. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations   B.  Analysis       B.1  Pricing  and  Financial  Analysis       Financial  Model   Our  financial  model  is  based  on  the  following  sources  of  revenues  and  costs  and  assumptions:     Revenues   • Charging  Sessions     Revenue   can   be   collected   from   applying   a   fee   for   the   use   of   the   EV   charging   stations.   The   charging   stations   manufactured   by   Coulomb   Technologies   allow   the   CoE   to   remotely   configure   the   charging   fee   on  a  session  or  hour  basis.     • Parking  Violation  Tickets   Parking  tickets  will  be  given  based  on  two  types  of  parking  violations:   Overtime   Parking:   tickets   will   be   given   to   violators   who   will   fail   to   remove   their   vehicle   after   the   30-­‐ minute  grace  period  following  the  time  when  the  vehicle  is  fully  charged.   Illegal   Parking:     tickets   will   be   given   to   violators   who   will   park   in   the   spots   reserved   for   EV   charging   without  charging  their  vehicles   Costs   • EV  Charging  Stations   The  following  cost  estimates  were  obtained  from  Brian  Levin,  vice-­‐president  of  Carbon  Day   Fixed   Coulomb  Technologies  Charging  Station  Cost   $5,000.00   Installation  Cost   $2,500.00   Annual  Network  Fee   $180.00   5  yr  Extended  Warranty   $1,300.00   Federal  Tax  Credit  @  30%   $(2,250.00)   Total  Cost  per  Station   $6,730.00   Variable     Authorization  Fee  per  Charging  Session   $0.50   7.5%  of  the  gross  revenue  per   Processing  Fee  per  Charging  Session   charging  session           19  
  • 20. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations   • Electricity   $0.05   per   kWh   was   used   in   our   model   since   that   is   the   cost   of   electricity   that   CoE   will   fix   for   the   next   years  with  its  electricity  provider,  ComEd.   Based  on  the  preceding  cost  estimates  and  the  following  assumptions  on  charging  sessions,  an  average   charging   session   lasting   3.4   hours   without   processing   fee   applied   will   cost   $0.99     ($0.49   for   electricity   +   $0.5  for  the  authorization  fee)  :   [20%*(5  hr)*(1.8  kW)+80%*(3hr)*(3.3  kW)]*[0.05  $/kwH]  +  $0.5  =  $0.99   Assumptions   • Charging  sessions   The  model  assumes  that  all  the  demand  is  met.   Based  on  the  results  of  the  queuing  simulations,  a  single  charging  session  was  modeled  as  follows:       Level  1   Level  2     Probability  of  occurrence     20%   80%     Voltage  (V)   120   220     Current  (A)   15   15     Power  (kW)   1.8   3.3   =Voltage/Current*1000   Charging  session  (hour)   5   3       • Parking  Violation  Tickets     Overtime  parking     Overtime  parking  ticket  fee   $30   Tickets  issued     1  every  30  charges   Illegal  parking     Illegal  parking  ticket  fee   $200   Tickets  issued   1  every  500  charges     Illegal  parking  tickets  are  modeled  based  on  the  tickets  currently  given  to  violators  who  illegally  park  on   the  handicapped  parking  spaces  in  our  two  target  garages:  Maple  and  Sherman  Plaza.   Overtime  Parking  tickets  are  modeled  based  on  the  1-­‐hr  maximum  parking  spaces  in  the  Maple  garage.   As  estimated  by  Mark  Turenne,  Parking  Facilities  Supervisor  for  the  CoE,  1  to  3  tickets  are  issued  every   week   and   considering   that   the   Maple   garage   has   25   1-­‐hr   maximum   parking   spaces,   a   total   capacity   of   1400  spaces  and  5595  cars  entering  the  garage  per  week,  we  could  estimate  that:   A  ticket  will  be  given  every  3  *  (25/1400)*5595  =  33.3  ~  30  customers       20  
  • 21. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations   Financial  Results  and  Analysis     Our   financial   Analysis   was   conducted   through   two   different   scenarios:   Free   Charging   and   Charging   for   a   Fee.  Both  scenarios  present  cost,  revenue  and  profit  estimates  modeled  using  the  demand  growth  rate  of   12%   calculated   in   our   demand   projection   analysis   (see   Appendix   B.2).   Also   for   both   scenarios,   we   conducted  a  discounted  payback  analysis  using  a  discount  rate  of  5%.   Free  Charging  Scenario   This  scenario  assumes  that  the  CoE  applies  no  fee  for  the  use  of  the  charging  stations.   The  following  graphs  showing  the  financial  results  for  the  Free  Charging  Scenario  are  generated  using   the  data  reported  in  table  B.1.1               21  
  • 22. Feasibility  Study  for  Electric  Vehicle  Charging  Stations     Discounted  Payback  Period   1st  Station   41  years   2nd  Station   51  years     Despite  the  extremely  large  discounted  payback  period,  it  should  be  noted  that  even  without  applying  a   fee  to  EV  drivers  for  the  use  of  the  stations,  we  estimate  that  the  CoE  will  incur  a  positive  discounted   operational  profit  meaning  that  the  we  forecast  that  the  cost  of  electricity  and  additional  operational   costs  of  operating  the  stations  will  be  completely  covered  by  the  revenue  generated  from  enforcing   parking  violation  tickets.       22