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V mware forecasting process.jl
- 2. 2 Web Presentation Servers Staging Servers Test Servers Forecasting – Art or Science “Forecasting is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future” – Niels Bohr “Forecasting future events is like searching for a black cat in an unlit room, that may not even be there.” – Mark Twain “If you have to forecast, forecast often.” – Edgar R. Fiedler
- 3. 3 Staging Servers Test Servers Forecast – Creators & ConsumersTerritoriesTerritories Districts,Regions&AreasDistricts,Regions&Areas GEOsGEOs FP&AFP&A VP Sales, CEO & CFO RevenueRevenue AccountingAccounting AR/IRAR/IR MarketingMarketing Product BUProduct BU Product BUProduct BU Product BUProduct BU Product BUProduct BU SalesOpsSalesOps
- 4. 4 Web Presentation Servers Staging Servers Test Servers Opportunity Forecasting (aka ‘Why do we need to enter all this junk in Siebel’)
- 5. 5 Web Presentation Servers Staging Servers Test Servers Three Views of Forecasting • Field forecast / field assessment • The forecast provided by the field based on all known factors in the local market. • Funnel perspective / assessment • Analysis against the opportunities currently in the system, typically analytically driven • Historical & analytical perspective • Based purely on historical achievement & trends We are going to mostly talk about the first one
- 6. 6 Web Presentation Servers Staging Servers Test Servers Components of an Opportunity • Sales Method • Account / Customer • Partner(s) • Territory(s) / Sales Team • Revenue (including line item breakout) • GAM Home • Buying Program • Sales Stage • Technical Sales Stage • Sales Status • Close Date
- 7. 7 Web Presentation Servers Staging Servers Test Servers Components of an Opportunity - Stages Sales Meth od Stage Standard 00 – Prospect 01 – Suspect/Lead 02 – Qualified 03 – Technical Validation 04 – Business Validation/Pre-Agreement 05 – Agreement to Purchase 06 – Closed Won 07 – Closed Lost OEM 01 – Suspect/Lead 02 – Qualified 03 – Technical Validation 04 – Business Validation/Pre-Agreement 05 – Agreement to Purchase 05a – Awaiting OEM Activation (Closed) 06 – Closed Won 07 – Closed Lost Sales Method Stage PSO 00 – Prospect 01 – Suspect/Lead 02 – Qualified 03 – Technical Validation 04 – Business Validation/Pre-Agreement 05 – Agreement to Purchase 06 – Closed Won 07 – Closed Lost Renewals 01 – Suspect/Lead 02 – Qualified 05 – Agreement to Purchase 06 – Closed Won 07 – Closed Lost Under Bar 05 – Projected 06 – Closed Won
- 8. 8 Web Presentation Servers Staging Servers Test Servers Components of an Opportunity - Product Server Desktop Non-License VI VI for VDI 1st year SNS SRM ThinApp Multi year SNS M&A View Renewals Lab Mgr/Stage Mgr Other Desktop PSO LCM/Orchestrator Other Server
- 9. 9 Web Presentation Servers Staging Servers Test Servers Components of an Opportunity - Probability Sales Method Stage Forecast % Upside % Standard 00 – Prospect 0% 0% 01 – Suspect/Lead 35% 20% 02 – Qualified 55% 40% 03 – Technical Validation 75% 60% 04 – Business Validation/Pre-Agreement 95% 80% 05 – Agreement to Purchase 100% 90% 06 – Closed Won 100% 100% 07 – Closed Lost 0% 0% OEM 01 – Suspect/Lead 35% 20% 02 – Qualified 55% 40% 03 – Technical Validation 75% 60% 04 – Business Validation/Pre-Agreement 95% 80% 05 – Agreement to Purchase 100% 90% 05a – Awaiting OEM Activation (Closed) 100% 100% 06 – Closed Won 100% 100% 07 – Closed Lost 0% 0%
- 10. 10 Web Presentation Servers Staging Servers Test Servers Closing out the Opportunity • When orders are booked in Oracle (ERP), orders are booked at GROSS value • All orders booked flow into the Bookings DB (Bookings). An automatic reduction of the front end rebates are applied • The NET amount (w/o Back End rebates applied) is passed into the Order Log, which flows to Siebel • The NET amount is what should be applied to the opportunity when closing an opportunity • Once revenue is updated, you move the opportunity immediately to Sales Stage 06 – Closed Won • The Order ID (or id’s) should be entered into the opportunity. This will allow automatic updates as and when we implement Lots of Fussy Details Lots of Fussy Details
- 11. 11 Web Presentation Servers Staging Servers Test Servers VP Level - Forecasting the ‘Run Rate’ VIP RUN RATE Level of business tracked Managed Periods Geo/Function <1.5k <4.5k <10k <20k 13 Wks US Northeast x x US West x x AMER x x Japan Tracked x x Korea x x APAC CE x x SE x x EMEA Renewals - AP x x Renewals - EMEA x x Renewals Web Sales x Web Worldwide More Fussy Details More Fussy Details
- 12. 12 Web Presentation Servers Staging Servers Test Servers The Forecast Call(s) (they never end)
- 13. 13 Web Presentation Servers Staging Servers Test Servers Called Numbers – 10 Data Points • Best Case • Most Likely Case • Worst Case • Management Gap (can be negative) • To Go • Conversion Ratio - (Forecast + Upside)/To Go • Weighted Roll Up – Funnel weighted by Stage & Status • Run Rate (usually <$20k,varies by GEO) • OEM Royalty • War Room Deals
- 14. 14 Web Presentation Servers Staging Servers Test Servers Forecast Calls – 24/7 • Monday – WW Forecast call • Previous Monday – GEO call • Previous Friday – Area call • Previous Thursday – Regional call • Previous Weds – District call • Previous Tuesday – Team call • Is the data always a week old? - sales mgmt is discussing deals real time, all the time • Don’t forget about monthly “Deep Inspection Calls” • Oh, and don’t forget your weekly report, which contains all of the above
- 15. 15 Web Presentation Servers Staging Servers Test Servers Last Week of the Quarter – FCST 3x Day Mgmt Commits Mgmt Commits Goal 307.0 Best Case 315.0 Quarter Most Likely 300.0 Upside Commit Worst Worst Case 280.0 West Area 64.00 61.00 57.00 Central Area 48.00 48.00 45.00 Trended Forecast East Area 94.00 91.00 85.00 Canada 20.50 19.50 18.00 Current Closed in Flash 185.3 Fed 28.00 27.00 26.50 Unclosed in Siebel 71.6 Latin 12.50 11.50 10.50 Sub Total 256.9 Americas 267.00 258.00 242.00 OEM Estimate for December 0.0 Globals 20.6 15.8 16 OEM Double Counted 0.0 Under $4,500 9 8 7 OEM Not Counted Above 9.0 Total 296.6 281.8 265.0 Total Projected 265.9 Remaining Pipeline 49.5 (all deals, including war room, $75M as of yesterday) Siebel Stats FCST PIPE Monday 103.7 49.0 9am 103.2 48.0 11am 102.9 48.8 1pm Wednesday 103.1 45.6 7:30am 97.5 49.5 3:30pm Thursday 97.3 45.3 7am
- 16. 16 Web Presentation Servers Staging Servers Test Servers Last Week of the Quarter – War Room Review region subregion unique_territory sales_team account Total US East NY Metro Strategic-NJ2 JDEAS Bristol Myers Squibb $5,400,000 US Central Ohio Valley Strategic-Ohio CWEER Lexisnexis $3,000,000 US East Midatlantic Strategic-East Midatlantic JMCDONALD Capital One Services Inc $3,000,000 US West Northwest Strategic-Northwest DHARPER Washington Mutual, Inc. $1,843,000 US West Southwest Strategic-Colorado LPARRISH First Data Corporation $1,751,311 US Central Plains St. Louis LDALEBOUT Scottrade, Inc $1,500,000 US Central North Central Strategic-Wisconsin BKLAAS Manpower Inc. $1,500,000 US Central Plains Twin Cities HBLUMENTHAL Minnesota State Colleges and Universities $1,300,000 US East Southeast Strategic-Atlanta STHOMAS Worldspan, L.P. $1,300,000 US East Midatlantic Strategic-East Midatlantic JMCDONALD Sas Institute Inc $1,250,000 Canada Canada Ontario West RSETH Rogers Shared Services $1,200,000 US West Southwest Strategic-San Diego RANDERSON Intuit Inc $1,121,000 US Central North Central Strategic-Illinois1 JBUCCI United Air Lines $1,100,000 US West Southwest Strategic-Southwest SDUNBAR First American Corporation $1,000,000 US West Southcentral East Houston/LA DION Capital One, N.A. $1,000,000 US East Midatlantic Strategic-PA BMCFARLAND SEI Investments Company $955,549 US Central North Central Strategic-Illinois3 TKAGEL Accenture, Inc $909,975 US West Northwest NorCal JFALVEY Deltanet, Inc $891,000 US West Northwest Strategic-SiliconValley KENP Juniper Networks, Inc $880,000 US West Southwest Strategic-Arizona2 BOLDEN Apollo Group Inc $820,000 Canada Canada East Canada GSCHEMAGIN Quebecor Inc $800,000 US Central Plains St. Louis LDALEBOUT Yellowbook Company, Inc $800,000 LatAm LatAm Brazil-Country CAMBC Sicredi $782,000 US East New England Strategic-Boston2 RICHA ACI Worldwide, MA $778,476 US East NY Metro Strategic-NY1 JCORWIN Metropolitan Life Insurance Company Inc $750,000 US Central Plains St. Louis LDALEBOUT Iowa Health System $728,864 region subregion unique_territory sales_team account Total US East NY Metro Strategic-NJ2 JDEAS Bristol Myers Squibb $5,400,000 US Central Ohio Valley Strategic-Ohio CWEER Lexisnexis $3,000,000 US East Midatlantic Strategic-East Midatlantic JMCDONALD Capital One Services Inc $3,000,000 US West Northwest Strategic-Northwest DHARPER Washington Mutual, Inc. $1,843,000 US West Southwest Strategic-Colorado LPARRISH First Data Corporation $1,751,311 US Central Plains St. Louis LDALEBOUT Scottrade, Inc $1,500,000 US Central North Central Strategic-Wisconsin BKLAAS Manpower Inc. $1,500,000 US Central Plains Twin Cities HBLUMENTHAL Minnesota State Colleges and Universities $1,300,000 US East Southeast Strategic-Atlanta STHOMAS Worldspan, L.P. $1,300,000 US East Midatlantic Strategic-East Midatlantic JMCDONALD Sas Institute Inc $1,250,000 Canada Canada Ontario West RSETH Rogers Shared Services $1,200,000 US West Southwest Strategic-San Diego RANDERSON Intuit Inc $1,121,000 US Central North Central Strategic-Illinois1 JBUCCI United Air Lines $1,100,000 US West Southwest Strategic-Southwest SDUNBAR First American Corporation $1,000,000 US West Southcentral East Houston/LA DION Capital One, N.A. $1,000,000 US East Midatlantic Strategic-PA BMCFARLAND SEI Investments Company $955,549 US Central North Central Strategic-Illinois3 TKAGEL Accenture, Inc $909,975 US West Northwest NorCal JFALVEY Deltanet, Inc $891,000 US West Northwest Strategic-SiliconValley KENP Juniper Networks, Inc $880,000 US West Southwest Strategic-Arizona2 BOLDEN Apollo Group Inc $820,000 Canada Canada East Canada GSCHEMAGIN Quebecor Inc $800,000 US Central Plains St. Louis LDALEBOUT Yellowbook Company, Inc $800,000 LatAm LatAm Brazil-Country CAMBC Sicredi $782,000 US East New England Strategic-Boston2 RICHA ACI Worldwide, MA $778,476 US East NY Metro Strategic-NY1 JCORWIN Metropolitan Life Insurance Company Inc $750,000 US Central Plains St. Louis LDALEBOUT Iowa Health System $728,864
- 17. 17 Web Presentation Servers Staging Servers Test Servers What Happens on the Forecast Call? •Inspection •Interrogation •Motivation •Occasionally Humiliation
- 18. 18 Web Presentation Servers Staging Servers Test Servers What they don’t teach you in new hire training • For Reps • Asymmetry in the penalty for being wrong vs. the reward for being right • Listen to your customers, not your manager, to keep your job (why would he pressure you to raise your forecast??) • Nobody goes to club for being a good forecaster (or gets promoted for that matter) • For Managers • Fear isn’t necessarily a good thing, but it sure works well on the forecast call • Forecasting – more important than when you were a rep (slightly) but still asymmetric • For Sales Ops • For every process, there is a loophole (sales stages, probabilities, $’s)