Trends and forecasts of interest to non profit organizations and governments.

1. BIG CHANGE TRENDSFocusing in on what matters www.markholmgren.com July 2010

2. How will your nonprofitsustain relevancein a dramaticallychanging society?

3. KEY TRENDS What’s inside this presentation: Demographics Community Income & Work Non-Profit Sector Philanthropy - Donations & Volunteerism Generations Technology - Internet, Social Media

4. D E M O G R A P H I C S

5. POPULATION Between 2006 and 2031 Seniors grow by 110% 0-24 decrease 15% Everyone else, up about 5% ...how about a bar graph or two?

6. A PICTURE IS WORTH… Seniors Population Growth 2006-2031in Canada FROM STATS CANADA PROJECTIONS

7. A PICTURE IS WORTH… Children/Youth Population Growth 2006-2031 IN CANADA FROM STATS CANADA PROJECTIONS

8. IMMIGRATION In 2003, one in ten immigrants spoke English or French as their mother tongue, compared to almost one in three in 1980. In Canada, visible minorities will grow as much as 113% (2001 to 2017). The rest of the population will grow at a rate between .7% and 6.7%

9. IMMIGRATION In 2017, roughly one person in five (between 19% and 23%) will be a member of a visible minority in Canada. One in seven Albertans and nearly one in six Edmontonians are a visible minority. Chinese comprise one quarter of the sub-population.

10. IMMIGRATION In 2006, a total of 187,775 immigrants lived Edmonton. 60% represent visible minorities. Over the next 20 years, Stats Canada projections indicate Alberta will be the destination for 350,000 to 400,000 immigrants.

11. FAMILY STRUCTURE In 2001, nearly 60% of adults in their early twenties live in their parents’ home, up 16% from 20 years ago. 54.6 % of Edmonton`s adult population is married or common law.29.7% are single 11% are divorced or separated 5% are widowed In Alberta for every 2.2 marriages there is one divorce.

12. SUMMARY - DEMOGRAPHICS …Huge Growth in Seniors # of children/youth declining …Seniors out number children/youth …Immigration drives growth Increased Visible Diversity …Family Make-up IMPLICATIONS Health Spending Up Social Services for Seniors Up Will education spending go down? Impact on Tax base? Increased Language ChallengesCulture a Government Priority? Impact on Volunteerism & Donations?

13. C O M M U N I T Y

14. EDUCATION Four years after graduating three of five high school graduates have not enrolled in post secondary education; after six years, the rate is two of five. In Edmonton, 29% of students do not graduate within three years of entering high school.

16. commit crimes, receive social assistance, and to have poor health

18. COMMUNITY CRIME RATE IN EDMONTON

19. COMMUNITY According to the Alberta Government, unless better ways are developed to address homelessness, it’s estimated that the Alberta government will incur costs of $6.65 billion over 10 years. In 2008, a total of 3079 individuals identified as homeless. Nearly 10% were under the age of 18 (Edmonton)

20. COMMUNITY ADDICTIONS IN EDMONTON There is an increase in the use and abuse of drugs and alcohol. For example, there are an estimated 4,000 injection drug users in Edmonton. AADAC sees more than 3200 adult Edmonton clients annually seeking counselling for cocaine addiction.

21. COMMUNITY PROSTITUTION IN EDMONTON There are an estimated 1000 prostitutes in Edmonton, of which 500 are street prostitutes. It is also estimated that there are approximately 10,000 “johns” in Edmonton.

22. COMMUNITY PROSTITUTION IN EDMONTON Prostitute demographics 61% Aboriginal 33% Caucasian 6% other ethnicity. 3% under the age of 18 49% between 18 and 30 48% over the age of 30. Over 50% do not have stable housing.

23. COMMUNITY SUICIDE IN EDMONTON Suicide rate in Edmonton is 14.2 per 100,000 population. Approximately 142 per year (2009) In 1997, there were 2,118 recorded suicide attempts--or 2.5 per 1,000 (Edmonton-area region). That rate today: over 2,500

24. SUMMARY - COMMUNITY Challenges include: …Highschool graduation …Prostitution (esp. Aborginal) …Addictions …Homelessness …Suicide …Feeling Safe Considering demographic trends, will there be funding for high school education and for other serious community issues? IMPLICATIONS

25. Income & work

26. INCOME 28% of Alberta Men 40% of Alberta Women 40% of Lone Parent Families L I V E I N P O V E R T Y

27. INCOME EDMONTON In 2006, the median income for Edmontonian was $29,195 an the low income rate was 10.6% Just over 73,000 Edmontonians live in poverty. In 2006, 34.1% of lone parent families were below the low income cut off, up from 27.1% in 2004

28. INCOME EDMONTON One in six children in our community live in poverty. One-third of immigrants since 2004 are considered to be low income. Aboriginal unemployment in 2006 was 9.8% compared with 4.6% for the overall Edmonton population. In Alberta...Lone-parent families are more likely to live in poverty than couples with children (40% compared with 9%).

29. DEBT IN CANADA Canadian Debt is rising at double the rate of growth of personal disposable income (e.g. Take home pay) 32% over 10 years $752 BILLION

30. DEBT IN CANADA Six in ten young Canadians between the ages of 18 and 29 are in debt. Of those in debt, 36% owe between $10,000 and $19,999 and 21% carry a debt of $20,000 and up.

31. WORK FORCE PARTICIPATION Labour Force Up In 20 years the participation rate in the Alberta workforce will fall from 72% to 63%. Participation Down

32. SENIOR TO WORKER RATIO IN CANADA

33. WORK CANADA Past 50 years: Canada’s workforce grew by 200% Next 50 years: 11 percent

34. WORK EDMONTON Recent immigrants experience higher unemployment rates (7.6% in 2006 compared with 4.6% of the total Edmonton population). Aboriginal unemployment in 2006 was 9.8% compared with 4.6% for the overall Edmonton population.

35. SUMMARY – INCOME AND WORK Challenges include: …Increased Poverty?…Smaller workforce as tax base …Diverse workforce …High personal debt …Higher unemployment for visible minorities Tax increases? Competition for jobs/increased remuneration. Impact on volunteerism and philanthropy? IMPLICATIONS

36. NON-PROFIT SECTOR

37. NON PROFIT SECTOR - ALBERTA

38. NON PROFIT SECTOR - ALBERTA 175,000 employees 19,000 non profit organizations 54% of Non Profit organizations do not have paid staff 175,000 employees 19,000 non profit organizations 8,740

39. NON PROFIT SECTOR - ALBERTA NOW CONSIDER... Hospitals, Universities and Colleges make up 1% of Alberta organizations but employ 40% of all paid staff. 175,000 employees 8,740 non profit organizations 105,000 8,550

40. NON PROFIT SECTOR - ALBERTA BUT ALSO... 64% of staff are employed by 5% of non-profits. Excluding Hospitals, Universities, Colleges

41. NON PROFIT SECTOR - ALBERTA 67,200 staff are employed by 856 non profits. 23,100 staff are employed by 7,000 non profits 23% of the revenue split between those above and the 10,300 that have no staff. 77% of the revenue.

42. NON PROFITSECTORALBERTA TSN

43. NON PROFIT SECTOR - ALBERTA 189 Albertans per Nonprofit Group 728 Albertans per Sports Group1,894 Albertans per Arts & Culture Group2,105 Albertans per Social Service Group 2,380 Albertans per Gas Station 331 Albertans per Liquor Store 600 Albertans per VLT 498 Albertans per Lawyer

44. NON PROFIT SECTOR – EDMONTON There about 2,300 charities in Edmonton. 200-230 are social service. There are another 3700 to 4200 non profits

45. SUMMARY – NON PROFIT SECTOR Challenges include: …Funding a complex sector …Focusing on “priority” agencies …Perceptions of duplication …Lack of understanding about the subsectors. Will other trends result in fewer government and philanthropic dollars for charities? IMPLICATIONS

46. P H I L A N T H R O P Y

47. PHILANTHROPY EDMONTON 25% of Edmontonians claim donations on their income tax return. The average gift is increasing: $1950 in 2007.

48. PHILANTHROPY EDMONTON

49. PHILANTHROPY CANADA The median value of charitable donations increased from $170 in 1997 to $250 in 2007. Religious organizations receive 46% of donated dollars followed by health organizations (15%) and social services organizations (10%).

50. PHILANTHROPY CANADA The top 25% of donors account for 82% of the total value of donations. The top 10% (who contributed $1,002 or more annually) account for 62% of the total value.

51. PHILANTHROPY CANADA Donors who give the most are: …older, …have higher household incomes, …have more formal education, …married or widowed …and to be religiously active.

52. PHILANTHROPY CANADA Planful donors tend to give repeatedly over time give significantly more than others On average immigrants give more

53. PHILANTHROPY CANADA 3% of Canadian businesses claimed charitable donations totalling $1 billion in 2003. Half came from two industries: Finance and Insurance (32.1%) and Manufacturing (19.4%).

54. PHILANTHROPY CANADA Two-thirds of all corporate funding goes to four types of organizations: …Social Services, …Health, …Universities and Colleges, …Arts and Culture Organizations. 66% 24% 84% of corporate giving goes to 7% non-profit organizations with annual revenues of more than $1 million.

55. PHILANTHROPYCANADA

56. PHILANTHROPY VOLUNTEERISM Nearly 2.5 million Albertans volunteer a total of 449 million hours each year. About 46% of Edmontonians have volunteered in the past 12 months. The average number of hours volunteered each year by Albertans is decreasing.

57. PHILANTHROPY VOLUNTEERISM IN EDMONTON

58. SUMMARY – PHILANTHROPY Challenges include: …Volunteerism as we know it is declining. …Impact of aging and diversity on philanthropy …Entering the corporate marketplace …Reaching affluent donors Charities may have to raise revenues in new ways (e.g. social entrepreneurship). Formal volunteerism may no longer be enough. Relationships with traditional funders more important than ever. IMPLICATIONS

59. G E N E R A T I O N Y

60. GENERATION Y Boomers tended to form affinities for charities later in life. Generation Y`s access to information, knowledge and their networking behaviours exposed them to issues and causes at a much earlier age.

61. GENERATION Y They tend to connect volunteerism with where they donate money, and are much more likely to want a say about how their monies are spent than Boomers. They are family oriented, driven to achieve, highly amenable to teamwork, and more demanding of attention and recognition than other generations

62. GENERATION Y Some say that if we want to market to Generation Y we do that by not marketing to them. Instead we have to buy into them first, listen to them, and experience things with them and in the process change with them.

63. GENERATION Y ...how to earn Gen Y's respect in the marketplace: AUTHENTICITY. The twenty-something consumer does not waste time on people or companies that are not being real with them. Authentic is cool. Authentic is a bit dorky. Authentic is hip. Authentic is truthful. This generation has seen it all, and it takes them all of three seconds to pass judgment on you as to whether or not you are the real thing. -Bea Fields

64. SUMMARY – GENERATION Y Challenges include: …Involving young people in formal charity work. …Competition for mind share. …Mentoring new leaders. …Being “there” for them. Need to engage them in new ways. Find meaningful ways for them to contribute. Create win-wins. Promote younger people within. IMPLICATIONS

65. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET

66. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET 400 million members China: 1.3 billion India: 1.1 billionUSA: 309 million Canada: 34 million

67. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET These three sites: 55 million users Nearly 20% of married couples met online

68. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET The Internet 32.7 hours/week Television 16.4 hours Reading newspapers and magazines 3.9 hours

69. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET Blogger Twitter Kijiji Craigslist EBAY Sympatico Wordpress LinkedIn TOP SITES IN CANADA Google Facebook YouTube Live.com Yahoo MSN Wikipedia       

70. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET

71. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET

72. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET SOCIAL MEDIA

73. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET Wiki Sites Micro giving Mash ups Crowdsourcing Folksonomy

74. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET 12 Nonprofits and Causes to follow on Twitter: Water.org, Twestival DonorsChoose Dosomething.org, joinred (over a million Twitter Followers), Case Foundation (300,000 + followers), Ashoka (over 300,000 followers).

75. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET World Wildlife Fund 337,000 “friends” joinred has over 500,000 friends. Nonprofits are creating such a presence on Facebook that Facebook itself launched a page for non profits: it has 290,000 members

76. SUMMARY – TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET Challenges include …Understanding the paradigm shift and connecting it to your organisation. …Adopting new technologies in planful, doable ways. …Using technology to build relationships. …Affordability. IMPLICATIONS Organization assumptions and culture will have to change. Skill sets of people must change. Social networking needs to a part of fundraising strategy.

77. SOURCES Statistics Canada Imagine Canada United Way of the Alberta Capital Region Working.com Government of Alberta Socialbrite.org The Edmonton 2008 Genuine Progress Indicator Report Listorious.com