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Title State and Growth Linkages of Non-farm Activities  in Rural Bangladesh: A Case of Comilla Sadar  Upazila BY Mohammad Abdul Malek Managerial Economics Division The United Graduate School of Agricultural Sciences Tottori University Attachment: Yamaguchi University  Major Supervisor: Professor Koichi USAMI, PhD Doctoral Seminar, Daisen , Tottori University 15-17 October 2008
Problem statement ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Farm/ non-farm Linkages Production linkages Consumption linkages Farm  linkages Non-farm linkages Forward (Farm/Non-farm) Backward (Farm/Non-farm) Forward (Farm/Non-farm) Backward (Farm/Non-farm) Theoretical Linkages related with farm/non-farm activities Agricultural growth linked NFAs, by sector, extd. from Start (2001) Domestic services, transportation, sales of domestic goods Household items, home improvements Consumption Agricultural and veterinary services Agricultural tools and equipments Production: Backward Transportation and trade Processing and packaging industries, construction of storage and marketing facilities Production: Forward Tertiary Sector (Trading and services) Secondary sector (Construction and manufacturing) Linkage
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Empirical Investigations on inter-sectoral linkages Review from farm/non-farm growth linkage literatures -Growth multipliers from certain structural relationships among agents (hhs, firms, the govt. and ROW) in the economy calculated and decomposed into various linkages -Detailed data on input/output table, an account of who receives income, both on the marginal expenditures of all agents required Social Accounting Matrices (SAM) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Econometric studies
Linkages as determinants of household non-farm enterprises` (HNFEs) success: An alternative approach for assessing farm/non-farm growth linkages in rural area  Method of estimation: Probit regression The enterprise has consumption linkage (1 if yes) conslin The enterprise has forward linkage (1 if yes) Entfos The enterprise has backward linkage (1 if yes) Backlin Farm/non-farm linkage variables in rural business cycle Financial problem was perceived by entrepreneur as main? (1 if yes)  Finp Did enterprise invest family thrifty savings? (1 if yes) Tfsav Did enterprise receive informal credit? (1 if yes) Infolend Did enterprise receive credit from NCBs, PBs? (1 if yes)  Ncbpb Did enterprise receive any credit from  MFI-NGOs, Coop.? (1 if yes) Mficr Hh income from other non-farm sources (except outcr and ent. Profit) is reinvested in enterprise? (1 if yes) Onfs Hh out-country remittance is reinvested in enterprise? (1 if yes) Outcr Financial capital related variables Hh farm income/land sale is reinvested in enterprise? (1 if yes) Finclands HH land size (acre) Landh Did the entrepreneur/hh members have any related prior exp./training? (1 if yes) Exptrg Employment size of the enterprise (Numbers) Emps Schooling age of the principle entrepreneur (Years) Sageentr Hh head profession is related with non-farming? (1 if yes) Hhhp Enterprise age (years) Entage Entrepreneur's learning curve and strength  Is the enterprise working as sub-contractor/production for order? Subc The enterprise is owned by partnership beyond household (1 if yes)  Ownd Organizational structure and relationship with other enterprises Sales in local market (1 if yes) Salesloc Inputs/raw materials purchased locally (1 if yes) Inploc Supply market (Local/non-local) Explanatory variables Performance of  HNFEs by net sales growth (1 if success) Pent Dependent variable
Data collection Method   Structured questionnaire, focus group discussion,  and researcher's  own o bservation. Sampling method   : 2-stage sampling Population   : 1148 Sample : 214 Sample enterprises : 81 from 67 hhs Study Location:  Comilla  Sadar Upazila   Data Collection April-May 2008 Survey on growth linkages (67 hhs) Aug.-Sep. 2006 Survey on participation/state of NFAs (214 hhs)
Results and discussions: Participation, time allocation, and income share by sectors in Comilla Sadar  Upazila  2005-06 (N=442) Evidences of HNFEs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Vegetable trade:  forward linkage Farm equipment workshop:  backward linkage Mobile Phone Service Center: Consumption linkage Source: Own survey (2008) 100.0 100.0 100.0 Total 7.8 .. .. Others (rental income, pensions,  interest, gifts, etc.) 19.1 16.2 15.0 Out-country remit. employments 5.7 4.7 6.0 In-country remit. employments 20.2 21.1 25.0 Non-farm wage employments 25.7 22.5 27.0 Non-farm self employments 5.9 6.4 11.5 Farm wage employments 87.5 77.4 82.6 NFS as a whole 12.5 23.0 17.4 Own farm production activities Income share ( %) Time allocation (%) Participation (%) Sectors
Mean characteristics of HNFEs` in Comilla Sadar Upazila in 2007 (N=81) Source: Own survey (2008) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],50.0 47.0 30.0 50.3 48.9 33.1 26.4 46.5 41.8 33.1 43.4 2.6 48.2 1.6 39.1 4.4 9.5 31.6 26.4   24.2   28.3   42.6 S.D. 58.0 Conslin (%) 32.1 Entfos (%) 9.9 Backlin (%) Farm/non-farm linkage variables in rural business cycle 51.9 Finp (%) 38.3 Tfsav (%) 12.3 Infolend (%) 7.4 Ncbpb (%) 30.9 Mficr (%) 22.2 Onfs (%) 12.3 Outcr (%) Financial capital related variables 24.7 Finclands (%) 1.3 Landh (acre) 35.8 Exptrg (%) 2.0 Emps (numbers) 5.2 Sageentr (Schooling years) 81.5 Hhhp (%) 12.4 Entage (years) Entrepreneur's learning curve and strength 11.1 Subc (%) 7.4   Ownd (%) Organizational structure and relationship with other enterprises 93.8   Salesloc (%) 91.4   Inploc (%) Supply market (Local/non-local) 23.5 Pent (%) Mean Characteristics
HNFEs` success in Comilla Sadar  Upazila  in 2007: Probit Estimates (N=81) Source: Own survey (2008) Note: Coefficients under  red mark show highly insignificance of the respective variables which are excluded in the restricted model. Statistical significance: *** at 1%, ** at 5%, * at 10% levels, respectively. @ the reference category for farm/non-farm linkage variables is forward linkage (Entfos). The variables are standardized. ,[object Object],[object Object],1.029973  .9464412  1.131781  .4391355  .8102144  .4342508  .5350931  .5908353  .4591295  .2432394  .8496144  .7103483  .8764796  .7543608  S.E. 1.516095  .9841969  1.244103  .4725168  .4499365  .8679487  1.309242  .4952501  .5762568  .6948799  .7081941  .017737  .5025735  .0366352  .6540089  .0026001  .2536936  .9477201  .7449853  .9508053  .7751354  S.E. Coefficient Coefficient 0.0188  0.1520  Prob>chi2 -1.961336  -2.160288   Constant -31.287852  -30.906944  Log likelihood 25.67  26.43  LR Chi2 2.515713***  3.133173***  -.6858312  .. -1.287961  .. .2932874  -1.047243**  .. -1.308359**  .. -.6749022  .. .. .. -.1545087  1.992713**  1.590222**  -1.336301  1.237942*  Restricted model 2.441203 Conslin@ 3.204855 Backlin@ -.7754718 Finp .0643728 Tfsav -1.258733 Infolend .3392973 Ncbpb .3387797 Mficr -1.00396 Onfs  .2155123 Outcr  -1.05591 Finclands -.0086316 sLandh -.7120329 Exptrg -.0101985   sEmps .0009403   sSageentr .1875505   Hhhp -.1930935   sEntage 1.98651   Subc 1.60823   Ownd -1.207808   Salesloc 1.221825   Inploc  Unrestricted model Variables
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Ph D Presn Slides For Daisen Poster

  • 1. Title State and Growth Linkages of Non-farm Activities in Rural Bangladesh: A Case of Comilla Sadar Upazila BY Mohammad Abdul Malek Managerial Economics Division The United Graduate School of Agricultural Sciences Tottori University Attachment: Yamaguchi University Major Supervisor: Professor Koichi USAMI, PhD Doctoral Seminar, Daisen , Tottori University 15-17 October 2008
  • 2.
  • 3. Farm/ non-farm Linkages Production linkages Consumption linkages Farm linkages Non-farm linkages Forward (Farm/Non-farm) Backward (Farm/Non-farm) Forward (Farm/Non-farm) Backward (Farm/Non-farm) Theoretical Linkages related with farm/non-farm activities Agricultural growth linked NFAs, by sector, extd. from Start (2001) Domestic services, transportation, sales of domestic goods Household items, home improvements Consumption Agricultural and veterinary services Agricultural tools and equipments Production: Backward Transportation and trade Processing and packaging industries, construction of storage and marketing facilities Production: Forward Tertiary Sector (Trading and services) Secondary sector (Construction and manufacturing) Linkage
  • 4.
  • 5. Linkages as determinants of household non-farm enterprises` (HNFEs) success: An alternative approach for assessing farm/non-farm growth linkages in rural area Method of estimation: Probit regression The enterprise has consumption linkage (1 if yes) conslin The enterprise has forward linkage (1 if yes) Entfos The enterprise has backward linkage (1 if yes) Backlin Farm/non-farm linkage variables in rural business cycle Financial problem was perceived by entrepreneur as main? (1 if yes) Finp Did enterprise invest family thrifty savings? (1 if yes) Tfsav Did enterprise receive informal credit? (1 if yes) Infolend Did enterprise receive credit from NCBs, PBs? (1 if yes) Ncbpb Did enterprise receive any credit from MFI-NGOs, Coop.? (1 if yes) Mficr Hh income from other non-farm sources (except outcr and ent. Profit) is reinvested in enterprise? (1 if yes) Onfs Hh out-country remittance is reinvested in enterprise? (1 if yes) Outcr Financial capital related variables Hh farm income/land sale is reinvested in enterprise? (1 if yes) Finclands HH land size (acre) Landh Did the entrepreneur/hh members have any related prior exp./training? (1 if yes) Exptrg Employment size of the enterprise (Numbers) Emps Schooling age of the principle entrepreneur (Years) Sageentr Hh head profession is related with non-farming? (1 if yes) Hhhp Enterprise age (years) Entage Entrepreneur's learning curve and strength Is the enterprise working as sub-contractor/production for order? Subc The enterprise is owned by partnership beyond household (1 if yes) Ownd Organizational structure and relationship with other enterprises Sales in local market (1 if yes) Salesloc Inputs/raw materials purchased locally (1 if yes) Inploc Supply market (Local/non-local) Explanatory variables Performance of HNFEs by net sales growth (1 if success) Pent Dependent variable
  • 6. Data collection Method Structured questionnaire, focus group discussion, and researcher's own o bservation. Sampling method : 2-stage sampling Population : 1148 Sample : 214 Sample enterprises : 81 from 67 hhs Study Location: Comilla Sadar Upazila Data Collection April-May 2008 Survey on growth linkages (67 hhs) Aug.-Sep. 2006 Survey on participation/state of NFAs (214 hhs)
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.