This is the summary report of my mobile industry technology forecast report, for the full study please refer to "Mobile Industry Technology Forecast" presentation.In this study I have tried to conduct a technology forecast for the mobile industry. In order to do this we have developed and followed a ten steps methodology as follows; First we started by defining the industry and determining the exact sub industry definition. Second we studied the history of mobile phones with special focus on the important milestones to determine the important inflection technology events which took the technology to the second level, or helped in diffusing the technology, or created a new trend or resulted in a technology disruption. Third we gone through an industry analysis phases in which we studied the market growth rate, market share of different players, identifying leaders, followers. Followed by studying the market dynamics and main trends from both producers and consumers. Producers revenue pyramid, current and future strategies have been included. Fourth we composed the industry PEST analysis followed by industry overall analysis using porter five forces model. Fifth, a study for the major technological trends have been conducted, resulted in identifying main important industry trends. For each of the identified industry trend, we have identified the main technological challenges based on the consumer pull demand and the technology implication of each. Sixth, we constructed our technology future wheel based on all the previously mentioned types of analysis, resulted in identifying the main technology subcomponents. Seventh, we gone through a structural analysis followed by cross impact analysis for those subcomponents. Eights, a relevance tree for all those subcomponents including different technological alternative for each have been constructed. Followed by an analysis based on experts opinion about existing diffusion rate for each of those technology alternatives. Ninth, a road map for the forecasted technologies have been compiled, followed a wild card listing for alternative technologies which may exist in the near or far future, even technologies which in research and we believe that it is extremely wild have been included. Tenth, a conclusion of our forecasted short and terms technologies landscape have been composed and presented.

1. MOBILE INDUSTRY TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING
NU TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING COURSE
PROJECT SUMMARY
FALL 2011
AL-MOTAZ BELLAH AL-AGAMAWI1
motaz.agamawi@nileu.edu.eg
Nile University, 6th of October City, Cairo, Egypt
Keywords: Technology Forecasting; Technology Assessment; Technology Foreseeing; Mobile
Smart Phones Technology Forecasting; Future of Mobile Phones; Mobile Phones Roadmap;
Mobile Phones Technology Progress; Mobile Phones Technology Components; Mobile Industry
Analysis; Mobile Industry Trends and Challenges
Followed Methodology
While developing this forecast report the following steps have been followed in sequence. First
we started by defining the industry and determining the exact sub industry definition. Second we
studied the history of mobile phones with special focus on the important milestones to determine
the important inflection technology events which took the technology to the second level, or
helped in diffusing the technology, or created a new trend or resulted in a technology disruption.
Third we gone through an industry analysis phases in which we studied the market growth rate,
market share of different players, identifying leaders, followers. Followed by studying the
market dynamics and main trends from both producers and consumers. Producers revenue
pyramid, current and future strategies have been included. Fourth we composed the industry
PEST analysis followed by industry overall analysis using porter five forces model. Fifth, a study
for the major technological trends have been conducted, resulted in identifying main important
industry trends. For each of the identified industry trend, we have identified the main
technological challenges based on the consumer pull demand and the technology implication of
each. Sixth, we constructed our technology future wheel based on all the previously mentioned
types of analysis, resulted in identifying the main technology subcomponents. Seventh, we gone
through a structural analysis followed by cross impact analysis for those subcomponents. Eights,
a relevance tree for all those subcomponents including different technological alternative for
each have been constructed. Followed by an analysis based on experts opinion about existing
diffusion rate for each of those technology alternatives. Ninth, a road map for the forecasted
technologies have been compiled, followed a wild card listing for alternative technologies which
may exist in the near or far future, even technologies which in research and we believe that it is
extremely wild have been included. Tenth, a conclusion of our forecasted short and terms
technologies landscape have been composed and presented.
1
Al-Motaz Bellah Al-Agamawi is the Vice President for Business Development in ISIS, and a M.Sc. Candidate in
Management of Technology in Nile University, Cairo, Egypt.
1

2. Forecast Scope and Definition
This forecast is compiled assuming the perspective of an international technology forecasting
consulting. Providing forecast consultation services for an international mobile handset
manufacturer through this study. This paper is just the summary of the study.
Mobile industry definition from the perspective of this summary is as follows; Consumer
Electronics Industry encompasses such industries as Computers, Consumer Electronics and
Telecommunications. It is divided into two main segments within the B2C (Business to
Consumer) space which are: @Home and On the Go electronics. The On-the-Go sector may be
broken into three segments: Mobile–Communication, Entertainment and Productivity. Overall,
this analysis focuses primarily on Mobile Communication Devices within the Consumer
Electronics market. Several segments within Mobile Devices are hardware and software:
Communication which include Mobile Phone, Entertainment which includes Portable Gaming
Systems and Portable Music/ Video Players, and Productivity which includes Mobile Computer
Laptop, Notebook, Tablet, Ultra-Portable, PDA and Navigation Systems(GPS). Our study scope
is focusing on the mobile phones (handsets) segment which fails under the communication
devices sector.
It worth mentioning that the mobile handset segment as of today includes two major sub
segment, the traditional phone and the smart phone. This study is mainly focusing on the smart
phone although we will mention some facts about the traditional phone market for the purpose of
compiling this study. Also we will mention is summary our forecast for the traditional phone.
Mobile Phone History
The first commercialized mobile handset as we know as of today was the Motorola DynaTack in
1985. In 1989 the Motorola StarTack have been introduced as the first flipping device. Also in
1989 Nokia was the first to introduce the SMS supported device in the markets. 1994 Nokia was
the first to introduce games software applications to the mobile handset industry. In 1996, Nokia
was the first to introduce smart phone concept through the communicator device. In 1997,
Research in Motion introduced the black berry service and then crack berry addiction have began
since then. In 1999, Nokia introduced the first web enabled mobile. In 2000, Nokia introduced
the first antenna free mobile. In 2001, Sharp introduced the first mobile including an built-in
camera. In 2001, the 3G mobile connectivity have been introduced, and it was an inflection point
in the mobile industry through the high speed connectivity the technology supports. In 2007,
Apple have introduced iPhone which was a real disruptive technology in the mobile industry. In
2008, Apple have introduced the Apple Application Store and this was the first introduction for
the mobile complete ecosystem model. In 2010 Google decided to enter the race with it Nexus
device and then followed by the introduction of Google Android in 2011. Since the entrance of
Apple and then followed by Google the mobile operating system and the ecosystem is playing an
important role in the mobile industry.
Market Dynamics and Industry Analysis
Mobile industry has four main factors driving change including On the Go Lifestyles,
Miniaturization, Network Effect and Convergence/Integration. The on the go lifestyle can be
2

3. summarize; Consumers crave convenience. Not so long ago our phones had cords, they were
bulky, heavy and sucked power like a Hoover, now they got liberated by not sticking to one
place. Miniaturization, The creation of ever-smaller scales for mechanical, optical, and electronic
products and devices. Processing Power went up as chip size shrank. Now miniaturization is
taking a new turn, it helped increase mobility and power. Network Effect, as more and more
phones are linked together –the value from such a device rapidly increases. Phones initially were
pretty much worthless. Then as more and more people bought phones, the value of owning a
phone expanded exponentially. Convergence/Integration, Combination of voice(telephony)and
data(computing/multimedia) into a single, multi-functional device. Design and the integration of
voice, multi-media, and computing is a huge driver of increased mobility.
For the PEST analysis;
 Political includes, Environmental Regulations. Restrictions on the tariffs and phones.
Government regulations. Internet Regulation. Base Stations & Human Health. Political
Stability. Members of the general public as well as interest groups such as ‘Power watch’
and ‘Friends of the Earth Scotland’ have shown concerns about impact of radiations
from base stations, transmitters and mobile phones on human health
 Economically, Taxations. Economic Benefits. Competition is a must. Rapid growth.
Mobile consumers in East Africa are taxed at some of the highest levels world-wide. In
addition to VAT-Value added Tax-, an excise duty, or luxury tax, is levied on mobile
services.
 Social includes, Lifestyle changes. Social mobility. Shift towards the Information
Society. Increasing Need for Communications. Security threats. Environmental concerns
vary. A necessity not a luxury. Parents are getting mobile phones for their teens because
they want to communicate in case of an emergency and the wireless carriers have made it
easy to add users to their existing plans. And carriers are becoming successful in getting
parents to expand their plans to include their teens.
 Technological includes, Rates of obsoleteness. New discoveries. Speed of technology
transferee. VoIP introduction. Technological Innovations. Some U.S. cities are now
proposing free citywide Wi-Fi services, which could mean billions in lost revenue for the
Mobile phone industry.
Porter Five forces model can be summarized as;
 Threat of Industry Rivalry
o Rivalry is High and intense ( Apple vs. Nokia, Nokia vs Samsung vs. HTC vs.
others and Microsoft vs. Google vs. OSX vs. Symbian)
o Digital Convergence is tearing down the walls between industries.
o Open architecture is forcing many companies to duke it out with each other.
o Margins are being squeezed for most players as products are commoditized and
substitutes are introduced.
 Threat of Supplier Power
o Suppliers hold only low to moderate power
3

4. o Smaller suppliers, with the exception of those with truly unique components, hold
little power over manufacturers.
 Threat of buyer Power
o High Buyer Power.
o Price conscious consumers will continue to put downward pressure on prices.
o Telecom carriers set strict terms from handset makers.
o Manufacturers sell to consumers Predominantly through retailers/carriers.
o Issue of returns is magnified in the direct model.
 Threat of New Entrance
o The threat of new entrants is low in the traditional sense.
 Massive fixed costs of production create economies of scale not easily
matched by challengers.
o Real danger exists in that the technology landscape is ever changing.
 Computer and Telecommunication companies are invading each others
territories
 Plus new technologies are always on the horizon.
o Barriers to entry are
 significant for startups in that capital requirements are large.
 However, a very large number of companies spread out a cross various
industries are ready to jump into markets offering even a hint of
profitability.
 Threat of Substitute
o The greatest threat is convergence.
 As more functions are crammed into devices, universal devices may drive
stand-alone products from the market.
 You can think of Skype and iPad with tweeking can change the landscape.
o Using open source software, many innovators are exploring and even hacking
existing devices, and creating an entirely new ecosystem of technology.
o Potential disruptions is expected from Tablets as the iPad.
 Threat of Complimentors
o Hardware advances create pull demand for matching software, and vice versa.
o Advances in communications technologies also fuel demand for
upgraded/replacement devices.
o As OS’s increase their capabilities ,application software’s potential is thereby
increased
o Microsoft and Nokia Strategic Alliance
 Nokia with include Windows 7 for its Smart Phones
 Microsoft will License Nokia Maps, Media Technology and Other as a
part of its Windows 7
o Nokia new Release Integrated with Apple iTunes
The industry analysis attractiveness analysis is:
Attractive factors;
4

5.  Mobile phone usage is growing very fast and landline usage is declining significantly.
 Internet through mobile phones increases the use models significantly.
 The cell phone is one technology where people of different ages can use without any
hesitation.
 The cell phone technology has infiltrated its way through the teenage population very
fast.
 Instant messenger, Email and Social Network usage through mobile phones are
increasing.
 Mobile Phones have even affects business like Alarms, Calendars and more.
Not Attractive factors;
 Competition is very high and is increasing tremendously.
 Prices are in continues decrease and profits are a major issue. Buyers power are
increasing.
 Threat of disruptive technologies exists, specially from tablets.
5

6. Tradition Phones
Figure 1 Traditional Phone Technology Performance
The traditional phone is in the maturity and commoditization phase. The above figure shows the
current technology performance which is fair higher than the current market performance
demand. Traditional phones are seen from the target segment (base of the pyramid) perspective
as an only voice communication device. Based on that, a low end disruption is expected through
a low end and less featured devices within the range of 5$ to 10$. Also enabled phones including
some features of connectivity is expected through highly competitive price. This is the opposite
when it comes to smart phones, a high end disruption is expected and this will be the focus of the
rest of the study.
Technology Trends and Challenges
Experiencing Eco-System, which became one of the most important buyers buying decision
factors. Ecosystem as of today includes software applications variety, music, movies, videos,
books, social media applications and the internet trends in general including search, ecommerce
and others. The ecosystem has many technological challenges which can summarized as,
Ecosystem expansion is a consumer pull requirement which in return raises the issues of storage
dilemma is it local or cloud. Also bandwidth is an important factor for the required expansion.
From the different vendors side as music, movies, books and application both monetization
business model and IPR/copy right technologies and mechanism have become more and more
important concerns.
6

7. Applications availability and diversification is a pull demand by consumers and a challenge for
mobile manufacturers. Applications are causing technology challenges which can be summarized
as; closed and proprietary operating systems are strategic decision which must be taken by
mobile manufacturers. Such decision is also important from independent software vendors and
developers because it affect the size of their target segment compared to development efforts.
Processing power and storage capacity of the devices is crucial parameters for applications.
Bandwidth speed and cost is another aspect affecting the whole ecosystem stakeholders and has a
direct implication on both monetization and business model.
Interface design and usability plays an important role in differentiation strategy between different
mobile manufacturers. Advanced fully featured devices with easy friendly interface is a
challenge. Complete ecosystem demand with high security is not a luxury. High security without
limitation for complete external systems communication, utilization of different communication
technologies (WiFi, Bluetooth, infrared), internet (upload and download), social application and
other is not an easy task. Privacy is an important factors but with the full support of technologies
as location based is also a hard task.
Display and monitoring is a challenge. Customers are asking for small and less weight devices
supporting large display area without the increase of device size. High resolution displays have
become more and more important. High resolution within a small device with large display area
and a long life battery is a real challenge.
Processing speed, keyboard and battery life is a real technology challenge for mobile
manufacturers. Consumers needs a high processing smart phone device with a low power
consumption and heat. Keyboard has become an important issue, convenient large keyboard in a
small device. Battery life is the main factor supporting the on the go life style which has become
vital for most of the smart phone users community.
Based on the above trend and challenges analysis which in return is based on the understanding
of the mobile industry history, PEST analysis and industry analysis using porter five forces
model, we have come out with the below illustrated future wheel. The below figure shows
mobile industry smart phones segment future wheel, with the main 8 technology subcomponents
including connectivity, processing, display, screen, battery, storage, operating system- OS and
ecosystem.
7

8. Figure 22 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Future Wheel
Relevance Tree, Structural and Cross Impact Analysis
Figure 3 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Relevance Tree
2
Color encoding for the sub technologies used in this paper analysis in all diagrams. Blue sky for storage, dark blue for connectivity, light green
for keyboard, brown for processor, light red for display, light blue for battery, orange for ecosystem & light green for OS.
8

9. As a result of the future wheel analysis we have extracted the technology relevance tree for six
components of the eight components we have mentioned as the core in the relevance tree. Figure
three express the alternative technologies for each of the storage, display, keyboard, battery,
processing and connectivity technologies. Based on our constructed relevance tree analysis for
the mobile technology subcomponent technologies we have tried to indicate the different
subcomponents listed technologies rate of diffusion. So we have developed the legend appears in
figure three as follows; green colored boxes for technologies currently diffused, yellow colored
boxes for technologies expected to start diffusing or already started and red colored boxes for
future technologies which e forecast that it will be diffused in the future.
Then we started our structural analysis and cross impact analysis. As shown in figure four, the
output of the structural analysis was a high dependency between the eight sub technologies. The
operating system was indicated as the most dependant components although it is the most
advanced one and with the minimum technological barriers or challenges. The technology show
stopper is the battery technology which is affecting the advancement of all other technology
components. Long life batteries with a minimum required charging and with a small size without
any customer behavior or convenience compromise is the real challenge facing the mobility
industry in large and mobile phone industry is specific. The battery technology performance
analysis compared to the handset mobile phone industry demand show a huge gap between the
available technology performance and the required market demand. Followed by the battery, we
have two main components having challenges including display and keyboard technologies. If
those three subcomponents challenges solved a new S-Curve in the mobility industry will been
seen.
Figure 4 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Structural Analysis
9

10. Technology Forecast Roadmap
Figure five represents the future technology roadmap we anticipate for the mobile phones
technologies. The roadmap diagram in composed of the five most important main
subcomponents distributed over short terms (0 to 1 year), mid term (1 to 3 years) and long term (
3 to 5 years). The short term, mid term and long term are designed based on our
anticipated/expected diffusion rate over time for the technologies, also we have related the
innovation novelty to each interval. The short time will include incremental innovation for
different subcomponent, the mid terms will include a radical innovation while the long term will
include a radical innovation.
Figure 5 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Roadmap
10

11. Technology Forecast Wild Card
We forecasted based on our analysis wild card technologies for three of the main subcomponent
technologies including battery, display and storage. In addition to a wild card upon
Nanotechnology entrance within the mobile industry play ground. The wild card figure 6
diagram is composed of; the four technologies distributed over three categorization included
moderate wild card (technologies with high probability of existence), intermediate wild card
(technologies with a lower probability of existent) and finally extreme wild card (technologies
which is a very hard to be existent within the near or even far future based on the technological,
social, economical or political existing barriers or constrains).
Figure 6 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Wild Card
11

12. Forecasted Future Mobile Phone
The figure seven shows our forecasted technologies subcomponents of the mobile phone. Below
diagram is composed of the eight main mobile phone sub technologies distributed over short (1
to 2 years) and long (3 to 5 years) term intervals.
Figure 7 Smart Phone Technology Forecast of Future Mobile
12

13. Acknowledgment
It worth mentioning that the following parts her mentioned have been presented based on a
mutual team work cooperation between the author of this research paper and the following
names as a part of their BSAD 603- Corporate Strategy, course project conducted in Nile
University as part of the Msc in MOT studies. Names are: Rasha Tantawy, Basma Albana and
Mohamed Mokhtar. Parts are: Industry definition, industry timeline, market dynamics, PEST
analysis and some of the industry trends.
Disclaimer
All material in this report is for informational and scholar research study purposes only . Any
and all ideas, opinions, and/ or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, should not be construed as
a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Be advised that study author
will not be held responsible for any investment actions that you take as a result of any
information mentioned in this report.
Appendixes
Figure 8 Mobile Industry Analysis using Porter Five Forces Model
i

14. Table of Figures
The below figures are the sole property right of the research paper author. All copy rights and
intellectual rights are owned by the research paper author.
1. Figure 1 Traditional Phone Technology Performance
2. Figure 2 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Future Wheel
3. Figure 3 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Relevance Tree
4. Figure 4 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Structural Analysis
5. Figure 5 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Roadmap
6. Figure 6 Smart Phone Technology Forecast Wild Card
7. Figure 7 Smart Phone Technology Forecast of Future Mobile
8. Figure 8 Mobile Industry Analysis using Porter Five Forces Model
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