Presented on February 10th, 2013 at the Second Research Competitive Grants Conference in Islamabad, Pakistan.

1. Economic Analysis of Challenges in Development of
High-Value Agriculture: The Case of Livestock
Diseases in Punjab
PI: Dr. Muhammad Ashfaq (ashfaq9@hotmail.com)
Co- PI: Dr. Ghulam Muhammad
Research Associate: Shamsheer ul Haq

2. Sequence of presentation
 Introduction/Background
 Methodology
 Preliminary Results
 Future Plan

3. Introduction/Background
 Agriculture provide 45 percent employment to labor force and
contribute about 21 percent to the GDP of Pakistan.
 Livestock contributes 55 percent in agriculture value added
and 11.6 percent in GDP
 About 33-36 million populations is engaged in livestock raising
(Bilal, 2004).
 Punjab is the major contributor (> 70 percent) in milk
production followed by Sindh

4. Table 1.2: Livestock Population in Pakistan
(Million No)
Source: Government of Pakistan, 2012
Years Buffalo Cattles Goats
2001-02 24.03 22.85 50.91
2002-03 24.75 23.30 52.76
2003-04 25.51 23.75 54.67
2004-05 26.29 24.21 56.66
2005-06 27.33 29.56 53.78
2006-07 28.14 30.67 55.24
2007-08 29.00 31.82 56.74
2008-09 29.88 33.02 58.27
2009-10 30.84 34.31 59.97
2010-11 31.70 35.60 61.50
2011-12 32.70 36.90 63.10

5. Table: Top Ten Milk Producers in the World
(Million Tons per Year)
Rank Country Production
1 India 110.04
2 United States 85.85
3 China 40.55
4 Pakistan 34.36
5 Russia 32.56
6 Germany 28.69
7 Brazil 27.71
8 France 24.21
9 New Zealand 15.21
10 United Kingdom 13.23
Source: FAO, 2010

6. Problem statement
 In Pakistan the milk productivity is low due
to various factors. One of the important
factor is the incidence of diseases.
 The economic losses that farmers have to
bear consist of extra expenditures and
reduction in income due to these diseases.
 By controlling the damages and economic
losses caused by diseases, the production of
livestock products could be increased.

7. OBJECTIVES
To assess the incidence and mortality rate of major
diseases
To assess the share of livestock income in the total
income of the farm
To assess the economic losses associated with major
diseases (Parturient hemoglobin urea, Foot and mouth
disease, Mastitis and Tick’s infestation)
To give policy recommendations

8. Methodology
Well structured and pretested questionnaire was
used to collect the required data.
All five tehsils of district Faisalabad were included
Three villages from each tehsil and ten
respondents from each village were selected
randomly
Total sample size was 150 livestock farmers

9. Name of Selected Tehsils and Villages
Tehsil Names Village Names/No. No. of Respondents
Gaffabad 10
Faisalabad Gharee 10
Chakaira 10
213 G. B. 10
Samundri 217 G. B. 10
Bhulpar 10
456 G. B. 10
Tandlianwala 454 G. B. 10
541 G. B. 10
26 R. B. 10
Jaranwala Ram wali 10
38 R. B. 10
133 R. B. 10
Chak Jhumra 190 R. B. 10
191 R. B. 10
Total 150

10. Cont….
Categorization of the farmers
Livestock farmers were categorized into three categories on the
basis of the adult animals (Buffaloes and Cows); Moaeen and
Babar (2006)
 Small Farmers (1-3 Animals)
 Medium Farmers (4-6 Animals)
 Large Farmers (> 6 Animals)

11. Cont….
 Gross income from livestock
Gross income from livestock will be estimated as
Gross livestock income = TI + IS
IT =Total income from milk
IS = Income from the sale of the animals and products
 Gross Income from crops
=
TPi = Total production of ith crop at farm
PCi= Price of one unit of ith crop

12. Cont….
 Gross Farm Income
Gross farm income = Gross income from crops + Gross
income from Livestock
 Share of Livestock Income in the Total Farm
Income
• Share of livestock income = (Gross livestock income/Gross
farm income) * 100

13. Cont….
 Gross Margins
For calculating the margins for the livestock sector;
GM = TR - VC
Where;
GM = Gross Margin
TR = Total Revenue
VC = Total variable cost

14. Cont… .
Estimation of the Milk Loss
Total milk loss due to diseases = Milk loss during sick time +
Milk loss till recovery + Permanent milk loss
Value of milk loss = Total milk loss due to disease * Unit
price of milk
Discarded milk loss
Value of Discarded Milk Loss = Quantity of milk discarded *
Time period of milk discarded * Price of unit milk

15. Cont….
Veterinary or Treatment Cost
Veterinary or treatment cost =Days of illness * per day
treatment cost of animal
Losses due to Abortion
Value of calf loss = (calf weight + 300-400 gm weight gain per
day * number of days delayed) * Market value of beef
Loss in Weight of Affected Animals
Value of live weight loss = average live weight (Kg/head) *
decrease in live weight (%) * Price of meat

16. Cont….
Total losses due to Mastitis = Value of milk loss +
Veterinary or Treatment Cost + Value of Discarded
Milk Loss + Loss in sale value
Total losses due to Hemoglobin urea = Value of
milk loss + Veterinary or Treatment Cost + Losses due
to Abortion + Loss due to Death of Animals
Total losses due to FMD = Value of milk loss +
Veterinary or Treatment Cost + Losses due to
Abortion + Loss in Weight of Affected Animals +
Loss due to Death of Animals
Total losses due to Tick’s infestation = Value of milk
loss + Veterinary or Treatment Cost + Loss in Weight
of Affected Animals

17. Cont….
 Morbidity Rate =
 Mortality Rate =
 Case Fatality Rate =
 Economic Losses =

18. Accomplishments
 Review of literature
 Questionnaire development
 Pre-testing
 Data collection
 Data entry, cleaning, preliminary
analysis
 Interim Report Writing

19. Preliminary Results

20. Distribution of Farmers
Farmer’s Frequency Percentage
Categories
Small 72 48.00
Medium 36 24.00
Large 42 28.00
Total 150 100.00

21. Preliminary Results
Socio-Economic characteristics of Respondents
Farm Size Groups
General Small
Information Farmers Medium Farmers Large Farmers Overall
Age (Yrs) 42.38 42.94 40.81 42.07
Livestock
Farming 18.97 19.00 18.50 18.85
Experience (Yrs)
HH head
6.54 7.47 6.36 6.71
Schooling Years
Family Members
7.74 9.19 11.29 9.08
(No)

22. Cont….
Distribution of the Farmers According to the Family Type
(Percent)
Farm Categories
Family
Type Small Medium Large Overall
Nuclear 71.83 59.65 31.82 61.33
Joint 23.94 29.82 31.82 27.33
Extended 4.23 10.53 36.36 11.33

23. Cont…
Farm Size –Acres
Farm Size Groups
Land Small Medium Large
Overall
Category Farmers Farmers Farmers
Area owned 3.39 8.40 8.77 6.10
Rented in 2.08 3.40 11.26 4.97
Rented out 0.11 1.67 0.14 0.49
Shared in 0.28 0.42 0.24 0.30
Operational
5.61 10.66 20.13 10.89
Holding

24. Cont….
Animals Inventory (Average)
Farm Size Groups
Type of Small Medium
Animals Farmers Farmers Large Farmers Overall
Adult Buffalos 1.31 3.53 15.40 5.79
Adult Cows 0.64 1.47 4.62 1.95
Adult Goats 0.92 1.89 3.60 2.45
Heifer Buffalos 0.69 1.56 3.69 1.74
Heifer Cows 0.29 0.69 1.93 0.85
Young Goats 0.08 0.50 1.44 1.07
Bulls 0.57 1.11 1.19 0.87
Calves 1.28 2.92 9.48 3.97
Buck 0.35 0.67 1.26 0.68

25. Cont….
Milking Period of Animals (Average Days)
Farm Size Groups
Type of
Animals Small Farmers Medium Farmers Large Farmers Overall
Buffalo 232.89 233.33 236.43 234.11
Cow 259.69 246.88 260.57 256.65
Area of Animal’s Farm (Marlas)
Farm Size Groups
Small Farmers Medium Farmers Large Farmers Overall
Area 9.54 21.96 38.13 20.60

26. Cont….
Source of Breeding Service (Percent)
Farm Size Groups
Small Medium Large
Source Farmers Farmers Farmers Overall
Buffaloes
Artificial 10.91 13.72 9.09 11.72
Natural 89.09 86.28 90.91 88.28
Cows
Artificial 43.33 64.1 68.42 57.95
Natural 56.67 35.9 31.58 42.05

27. Cont….
Drinking Water Source for Animals (Percent)
Farm Size Groups
Water Small Medium Large Overall
Source Farmers Farmers Farmers
Canal 0.00 5.26 0.00 2.01
Hand pump 28.57 14.04 22.73 22.15
Motor pump 48.57 50.00 57.89 52.35
Canal +
8.57 14.04 13.64 11.41
Motor pump
Water course
14.29 8.77 13.64 12.08
/ Tube well

28. Future Plan
 Data analysis
For assessing the incidence, mortality and case fatality
rate of each disease
For assessing the share of livestock income in the total
farm income
For calculating the economic losses due to diseases
 Report writing
 Presentation of the project results
 Paper(s) writing for publication