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Recession and Recovery in the Lynchburg MSA,[object Object],Dr. Joe Turek,[object Object],School of Business and Economics,[object Object],Lynchburg College,[object Object],March 3, 2011,[object Object],turek@lynchburg.edu,[object Object]
Distribution of Regional Employment, December 2010,[object Object]
Turek  - regional economic outlook march 3 2011 final
Turek  - regional economic outlook march 3 2011 final
EMPLOYMENT BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE,[object Object]
Comparing employment in the Lynchburg MSA and the nation,[object Object]
Comparing employment in the Lynchburg MSA and the nation,[object Object]
MSA Unemployment RatesDec. 2010,[object Object]
LYNCHBURG MSA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE,[object Object]
Unemployment RatesAug 05 – Aug 08,[object Object]
Unemployment RatesDec 07 – Dec 10,[object Object]
WHERE HAVE ALL THE WORKERS GONE?,[object Object]
WHERE HAVE ALL THE WORKERS GONE?,[object Object]
Turek  - regional economic outlook march 3 2011 final
Number of Unemployed per Advertised Job Opening,[object Object]
Number of Unemployed per Advertised Job Opening,[object Object]
Business Vacancy RatesSept 2010,[object Object]
Turek  - regional economic outlook march 3 2011 final
Lynchburg MSABusiness Startups,[object Object]
Number of Building Permits (annual totals),[object Object]
ACCRA Cost of Living Index (2010 Q3),[object Object]
How the Cost of Living in the Lynchburg MSA is changing relative to:,[object Object]
Roanoke/Lynchburg/BlacksburgHousing Market,[object Object]
Turek  - regional economic outlook march 3 2011 final
Recap,[object Object],The terms Lynchburg MSA, Region 2000, and the region were used interchangeably in this presentation.,[object Object],The Lynchburg MSA follows the national economy, but occasionally deviates … especially with respect to turning points.  Such differences are largely attributable to differences in the employment base of the region relative to the nation.  The region often “lags” the nation over the course of the business cycle.,[object Object]
This last year, the region lost employment (- 1.5%) while the state (+ 1.5%) and the nation (+ 0.9%) started to climb out of the recession. ,[object Object],In normal times, the rate of unemployment and the level of employment will move in opposite directions.  In other words, when employment rises, the unemployment rate usually falls, and vice versa.  Lately, this hasn’t been the case in the region.,[object Object]
In bad economic times, some workers are unable to find jobs and decide to “detach” from the workforce because they become discouraged.  The current unemployment rate in the region understates the extent of unemployment due to this phenomenon. ,[object Object],The number of unemployed persons per advertised job openings (including online advertisements) in the region rose from 1.94 in Dec. 2009 to 2.06 in Dec. 2010, indicating a (growing) excess supply of labor. ,[object Object]
The City of Lynchburg is the only area in the region where the demand for labor exceeds the supply of labor (the number of unemployed persons per job opening was 0.64 in Dec. 2009 and 0.86 in Dec. 2010).,[object Object],The vacancy rate of business property in the region declined through much of 2008 and increased through much of 2009.  This is what we’d expect to see if local recessions  and recoveries lag national recessions and recoveries.,[object Object]
New business startups are still depressed relative to pre-recession levels. The number of building permits has started to rise, especially in Bedford County.,[object Object],Our cost of living remains relatively low (with respect to other Virginia MSAs), an important factor in the locational decision making of both firms and households.,[object Object],The housing market in 2010 showed lingering weakness, with sales and median prices both down from one year ago.,[object Object]
Between 2007 and 2010, the regional share of manufacturing jobs declined (from 18.2% of total employment to 15.2%); during this same period, we registered gains in the areas of health and professional services.,[object Object],During this same 3-year period, the share of regional jobs in high-paying industries (e.g., manufacturing, finance and insurance, and utilities) declined.  This exerts downward pressure on the average regional wage. ,[object Object]
The region’s dependence on a relatively small number of industries/employers increases our vulnerability to cyclical fluctuations in the economy.,[object Object],CONCLUSION: The regional recovery will continue, but at a slower pace than the national economy.  Anything that poses a threat to the national recovery, including rising oil prices, will jeopardize the region’s recovery.,[object Object]

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