SlideShare ist ein Scribd-Unternehmen logo
1 von 9
Downloaden Sie, um offline zu lesen
SCOT HOLLAND | CBRE

                                                                                Almaty Market View
                                                                                        Residential
  www.cbre.kz                                                                                                                                                      Q2 2012

                                        OVERVIEW
  Quick Stats                           With the completion of the troubled housing
                             Change     construction and the termination of funding for
                                                                                                                             Completed Residential
                               from     such facilities by the state, the 1st Half of 2012
                             Q1 Q2                                                                                            Buildings ('000 sqm)
                                        also marked the start of the sate housing             10 000
                             12    11
                                        construction program called "Affordable Housing
   Prices                               – 2020”.
                                                                                                   1 000

   Absorption                                                                                                   100
                                        The implications and impact of the global
                                                                                                                10
                                        economic downturn have “cooled down” the
                                        Residential market segment, as a result of which                         1

  Hot Topics
                                                                                                                         2007     2008      2009          2010     2011      Jan-
                                        many players have left the market. However, the                                                                                      June
                                        stronger and more financially capable developers                                                                                     2012
• Stable levels of selling prices       have continued their construction activities,
                                                                                                                                             Kazakhstan          Astana

  and rental rates on the               although at slower rates.                             Source: Kazakhstan Statistics Agency
  residential market of Almaty;                                                                                              Housing Stock per Capita
                                        The total residential space commissioned in
• The number of actual                  Almaty 1st half of 2012 comprised 471,300 sqm,                           20,5

  residential sale-and-purchase         which represents a 45% increase on a y-o-y basis.                        20,0




                                                                                               sqm per capita
                                                                                                                 19,5
  transactions during January-          According to information published by the                                19,0
  February 2012 increased on a          Kazakhstan Statistics Agency, the number of                              18,5

  y-o-y basis;                          residential property sale & purchase transactions                        18,0

                                        during January-June 2012 in Almaty increased by                          17,5
• Slight easing of the mortgage         12% year-on-year                                                         17,0

  lending terms caused by higher                                                                                    2007         2008       2009      2010         2011     Jan-June
                                        Despite the increasing number of incoming                                                                                             2012
  competition between the                                                                                                               Kazakhstan          Almaty
                                        requests for sale & purchase of apartments/houses
  second-tier banks and                 and land plots, the real estate sales market still    Source: Kazakhstan Statistics Agency
  increased demand on behalf            remains slow. Property owners still quote high                                       Almaty Housing Stock
  of the population;                    prices, which affects the market in a negative                          26 000
                                        manner.      Potential buyers still cannot afford
• Start of the ‘Affordable                                                                                      25 000

                                        purchasing housing at relatively high prices and                        24 000
  Housing – 2020’ state
                                                                                                 1,000 sqm




                                        are waiting for further price decreases.                                23 000
  residential construction                                                                                      22 000

  program.                              The commissioned residential volumes in                                 21 000

                                        Kazakhstan in the period January–June 2012                              20 000

                                        increased by 14.3% compared to the same                                 19 000
                                                                                                                     2007        2008       2009          2010     2011      Jan-
                                        period of 2011. According to official statistics,                                                                                    June
                                        the largest shares of residential space in this                                                                                      2012

                                        period of 2012 were commissioned in Astana            Source: Kazakhstan Statistics Agency
                                        (21% of total), Almaty (15.5% of total) and
                                                                                                                                Average sale price,
                                        Almaty province (13.6% of total).                                                        primary market
                                        Regardless of the relative overall improvement of                        4 000

                                        the market situation, the activity of real estate
                                                                                                                 3 500
                                                                                                                 3 000
                                                                                               USD per sqm




                                        market players remains quite moderate. This can                          2 500

                                        be explained by the ongoing process of                                   2 000
                                                                                                                 1 500
                                        overcoming the consequences of the market                                1 000
                                        downturn, as well as the low level of confidence in                       500

                                        the property market and cautiousness with regard                              0
                                                                                                                      2006      2007     2008      2009     2010     2011    Jan-
                                        to real estate investments.                                                                                                          June
                                                                                                                                                                             2012
                                        According to the estimates of financial analysts,
                                        construction and real estate business are currently   Source: Kazakhstan Statistics Agency
                                        considered among the riskiest fields of activities.



                                                                                                                                        ©2012, Scot Holland | CBRE
The increase of supply of mortgage products from specialized        In addition, the breakdown of the volume of commissioned rental
                                 institutions, such as ‘KMC’ and ‘Zhilstroysberbank’, shows the      residential space by Province is as follows: Kostanay Province –
Almaty Market View Residential


                                 wish of the Government to stimulate the construction sector.        6,300 sqm, Aktobe Province – 2,860 sqm, Almaty Province –
                                 Following that, second tier banks have also increased the           3,800 sqm and Karaganda Province – 4,700 sqm. A total of
                                 volume of offered mortgage loans.. Increased competition            more than 136,000 sqm of rental residential space is planned to
                                 between the mortgage market players resulted in somewhat            be commissioned in 2012. The amount of target financing
                                 eased financing terms and lowered interest rates of mortgage        planned to be dedicated to the construction of rental residential
                                 loans.      ‘Zhilstroysberbank’ moderated the terms for the         space in 2012 amounts to KZT 34.6 Bn.
                                 participants of housing construction saving system, which
                                                                                                     It should be noted that in contrast with the pre-crisis period,
                                 mainly means decrease of the interest rates. In addition JSC
                                                                                                     when a large portion of buyers was willing to participate in
                                 ‘Mortgage Organization ‘Kazakhstan Mortgage Company’
                                                                                                     shared interest construction projects, today this method of
                                 also changed its credit conditions for purchase of housing and
                                                                                                     purchasing a housing unit is the least popular among potential
                                 interest-shared participation in the construction of multi-family
                                                                                                     buyers due to the facts of non-bona fide activities of
                                 residential houses, by decreasing the interest rate.
                                                                                                     development companies using this scheme.
                                 However, despite the above, the system of evaluation of
                                                                                                     Currently the largest part of potential buyers are either
                                 borrower’s solvency remains strict. The banks continue to check
                                                                                                     considering the use of mortgage loans or their own funds, or
                                 solvency and paying capacity of customers very thoroughly.
                                                                                                     would proceed with the state housing program for obtaining an
                                 Based on the instructions issued by the Head of State, starting     apartment.
                                 from 2011 a new residential construction program is being
                                 implemented. Its main purpose is to stimulate supply, in order      The sales offices of several high-end residential complexes note
                                 to prevent a rapid increase of property prices, which may take      a marked growth of customer activity, as well as and increase of
                                 place due to the current increase of demand and shrinking of        the number of sales-and-purchase transactions. Our Company is
                                 supply on the residential market. There are practically no new      also getting more enquiries from people who are interested in
                                 developments due to financing difficulties arising from the         buying properties particularly houses.
                                 cautiousness of investors on the one hand, and high interest        Changes to the laws «On architectural, urban planning and
                                 rates on foreign loans for local commercial banks – on the other    construction activity» and «On licensing» came into force in the
                                 hand. The housing development program in the period 2011-           1st half of the year.        These changes introduce stricter
                                 2014 assumes the commissioning of 6 Million sqm of                  requirements to construction companies on obtaining licenses for
                                 residential space per year.                                         construction activities, which should ultimately lead to an
                                 The program for Government support of the residential sector        improvement of the quality of construction in Kazakhstan.
                                 includes 3 major support schemes:                                   One of the recent trends on the rental housing market is that
                                 •   construction of affordable housing by local authorities using   corporate clients are now coming in with much lower budgets to
                                     the residential savings system,                                 lease apartments for their employees. For example, several
                                 •   allocation of funds to second-tier banks for the subsequent     large companies are looking for housing (both apartments and
                                     financing of construction and mortgage lending,                 stand-alone houses) at around USD 2,000 per month, while the
                                 •   construction of utility infrastructure.                         group of potential tenants with a budget in the range
                                                                                                     USD 4,000 - 5,000 per month is somewhat smaller.
                                 In addition, one of the goals of the State Program for the
                                 Development of Residential Construction in the Republic of          We have also observed situations when tenants move from
                                 Kazakhstan is to increase the affordability of housing for wider    expensive houses to more affordable ones. Landlords are now
                                 public through a better development of housing saving system.       going to have to tighten their belts and offer their properties at
                                 In particular, this program stipulates that JSC ‘Housing            much more realistic prices. The boom time of leasing prices, at
                                 Construction Saving Bank of Kazakhstan’ (‘Zhilstroysberbank’)       least for the moment, is well and truly over.
                                 will grant loans to the special-priority groups of the population   Rental rate levels continue to hold although landlords seem to be
                                 at an interest rate as low as 4% per annum.                         slightly more willing to negotiate. High end properties are in
                                 A new housing construction program - "Affordable Housing -          demand (though much rarer) but unfortunately good ones are
                                 2020" – was given a start during Q2 2012, envisaging the            now proving extremely difficult to find, which indicates of a very
                                 construction of affordable housing units offered for rent with      limited supply of properties with an actually good quality.
                                 subsequent buy-out. This program is aimed at achieving a
                                                                                                     In conclusion, we would like to note that the average price levels
                                 volume of construction of new residential space at the level of 6
                                                                                                     on the Almaty primary and secondary residential markets have
                                 Mln sqm per year and reaching 10 Mln sqm per year by
                                                                                                     remained practically unchanged in the course of Q2 2012.
                                 2020.
                                 During the period January-June 2012 a total of 32,000 sqm of
                                 rental residential space was completed and commissioned in
                                 Kazakhstan, out of which 25,400 sqm of apartment space. At
                                 the same time the largest proportion of commissioned rental
Q2 2012




                                 residential space – ca. 14,270 sqm – is located in Almaty.




                                           Page 2
                                           ©2012, Scot Holland | CBRE
Map of Almaty Residential market zones   Market Zones

                                                                          • Al-Farabi Corridor – Currently, the most
Almaty Market View Residential


                                                                            popular area for up-market projects, mostly
                                                                            due to the availability of large land plots for
                                                                            development and re-development, good
                                                                            road connections (though over-reliance on
                                                                            this artery leads to heavy traffic jams and is
                                                                            likely to decrease its popularity) and
                                                                            proximity to the mountains and to the
                                                                            expanding CBD of Almaty;
                                                                          • Dostyk Corridor – Lower part – Samal
                                                                            micro-districts were quite popular in the
                                                                            1980’s – 1990’s when they were newly
                                                                            developed; there are some land plots for
                                                                            development and re-development; most
                                                                            projects in this area are Elite class, though
                                                                            Business class projects can also be found;
                                                                          • Extended Centre – Mostly residential stock
                                                                            from the 1950’s – 1970’s; with some land
                                                                            plots for development and re-development,
                                                                            there are a few Elite and Business class
                                                                            developments;
                                                                          • Golden Square – In the second half of 20th
                                                                            century, centre of Almaty City; residential
                                                                            stock mostly built in 1950’s – 1960’s, most
                                                                            of which is with excellent for those years
                                                                            quality and still very demanded; virtually
                                                                            there is not land free for development, but
                                                                            there are a few spots that were or will be re-
                                                                            developed; most of the buildings completed
                                                                            in the past 10 years are Elite class;
                                                                          • Lower Town – Poor quality residential stock,
                                                                            mostly individual houses and some
                                                                            apartment buildings; it is largely unpopular
                                                                            due to poor air quality, inefficient road
                                                                            network causing traffic jams, and higher
                                                                            density of industrial enterprises in the area;
                                 Source: Google, Scot Holland CBRE        • Micro-districts – Mostly residential stock
                                                                            built in 1960’s – 1980’s, and some parts
                                 Map legend:                                with single-family houses; the areas closer to
                                 •   Al-Farabi Corridor – red;              the centre and to the mountains attract
                                 •   Dostyk Corridor – dark blue;           Business class developments, while the
                                 •   Extended Centre – magenta;             remaining territory hosts mostly Economy
                                 •   Golden Square – yellow;                class projects;
                                 •   Lower Town – light green;            • Mountain Belt –Most of the residential stock
                                 •   Micro-districts – light blue;          is single-family houses; an attractive area
                                 •   Mountain Belt – dark green.            due to its proximity to the mountains and
                                                                            lower population density, hosts a variety of
                                                                            Deluxe, Elite and Business class projects.
Q2 2012




                                          Page3
                                          ©2012, Scot Holland | CBRE
SCOT HOLLAND | CBRE

                                                                                   Almaty Market View
                                                                                              Offices
   www.cbre.kz                                                                                                                        Q2 2012

                                      OVERVIEW
  Quick Stats                         Almaty remains the commercial focal point of oil-      Due to the decreased demand for space in
                           Change                                                            office and administrative buildings, the vacancy
                                      rich Kazakhstan and aspires to become Central
                             from
                                      Asia’s regional financial centre.                      rate largely increased in 2009 reaching a level
                           Q1 Q2
                           12    11
                                                                                             of approximately 40% both in Class A and
                                      The commercial real estate market of Almaty is
                                                                                             Class B projects.
   Rental rates                       the best developed in the country, especially the
                                      office segment.                                        However, starting from Q4 of 2009 the
   Occupancy
                                                                                             demand for higher-class office premises started
                                      The bank liquidity crisis which started in August
                                                                                             recovering gradually, and by the date of this
                                      2007 affected the office market through slowing
                                                                                             report the estimated average vacancy rate is
                                      down the construction and investment rates in
  Hot Topics                                                                                 approximately 24-25% and is expected to
                                      the real estate industry.
                                                                                             decrease further in the short-to-medium term.
• Despite the consequences of         Nevertheless, both the economic and market
                                                                                             The      growth     of    business  activity   of
  the financial crisis, the Office    indicators offer a positive outlook for the future
                                                                                             manufacturing, retail and other entities in 2011
                                      of office real estate projects in Almaty. This
  market remains relatively                                                                  is a sign of improvement of the economic
                                      optimism has attracted multiple investors and
  stable;                             developers, thus making the office market
                                                                                             situation, resulting in a GDP growth of 5.6% in
                                                                                             1st half of 2012 (according to preliminary data).
• Rental rates across all classes     environment more competitive every day.
                                                                                             No significant increase in the rate of
  of office properties increased      Taking into consideration projects completed
                                                                                             construction of office developments was
  by 10 – 12% during Q2 of            during 2010-2012, it is our estimate that at the
                                                                                             observed during the Q1 2012. However, a
                                      present moment there are approximately
  2012;                                                                                      new business centre with a Total Gross Area
                                      650,000 sqm of leasable office space in
                                                                                             (TGA) of 3,628 sqm was commissioned in the
• The demand for office space         Almaty.
                                                                                             Baganashyl district of Almaty during Q2 2012.
  had been increasing during          However, this number does not include
                                                                                             Below is a brief overview of brokerage
  2nd Quarter of 2012;                numerous smaller office projects which are
                                                                                             transactions for lease of commercial space
                                      mostly graded as Class B- or lower.
• Occupancy rates in business                                                                completed recently with the involvement of Scot
                                      An analysis of the prime office yield levels in the    Holland | CBRE:
  centres increased significantly     EMEA regions (Europe, Middle East and Africa)
  compared to Q1 2012.                                                                       o The “Urban Media” Company rented office
                                      shows that the Almaty market has one of the
                                                                                                space in the “Nurly Tay” Business Complex.
                                      highest indicators, which on one hand evidences
                                      a high risk degree of the investments, and on the
                                      other hand shows that the local office market is
                                      very attractive for new players and investors.



                                                     Prime Office Yields
                                                                                                        GDP Growth Rate, % y-o-y
                                           16                                                                 (2003-2011)
                                                Almaty
                                           14                                                      12
                                                            Kyiv                                   10
                                           12
                                                                                                    8
                                       %




                                           10                                                       6
                                                         Moscow                  Instanbul
                                                                        Sofia                       4
                                           8
                                                               Warsaw                               2
                                                                                Budapest
                                           6                                                        0
                                                     London        Prague
                                                      City                                          2004 2005   2006 2007 2008 2009      2010 2011
                                           4

                                      Source: Scot Holland CBRE                              Source: Kazakhstan Statistics Agency




                                                                                                                   ©2012, Scot Holland | CBRE
The 2nd Quarter of 2012 was characterized by a relative                                                                                 Office Monthly Rental Rates
                             stability of rental rates across all Classes of office properties.
                                                                                                                                                           80
                             Pending for the annual financial performance results, many                                                                    70
                             companies are postponing their relocation to a new office
Almaty Market View Offices




                                                                                                                                                           60




                                                                                                                           USD per sqm
                             premises on to the next year. CBRE EMEA research work                                                                         50
                             shows that in the current environment many companies                                                                          40
                             (regardless of the industry they operate in), still consider real                                                             30
                             estate as an important element of cost cutting (see the graph                                                                 20

                             below). In particular, the companies having long-term lease                                                                   10

                             agreements in Almaty are looking to agree on a lower rental                                                                   0
                                                                                                                                                                     2007     2008     2009     2010     2011      Q1       Q2
                             rate, and/or negotiate other commercial terms of their lease                                                                                                                         2012     2012
                             agreements.                                                                                                                                                 Class A       Class B

                             Currently, the base rental rates for Class A office buildings                           Source: Scot Holland CBRE
                             vary in the range USD 30 - 50 per sqm per month, with an
                             estimated average of USD 32 per sqm per month. However,                                                                                  Almaty Office Sales Prices
                             some specific Class A business centres still keep higher rental                                                                               (USD per sqm)
                             rate levels, in some cases (where for example the client leases                                                                             6 000
                                                                                                                                6 200 5 200
                             small-size premises) up to USD 50-60 per sqm per month.
                                                                                                                                5 200                                    4 500
                             The difference in office rental rates between Class A and
                                                                                                                                4 200
                             Class B is approximately 30%. The base rental rates for                                                                             3 200               3 000
                                                                                                                                3 200
                             Class B offices start from USD 15, up to ca. USD 25 per sqm                                                                                             2 000     2 000   2 000      2 000   2 100
                                                                                                                                2 200
                             per month, with an estimated average of USD 20 per sqm                                                                                                           1 500    1 500      1 500   1 550
                             per month.                                                                                         1 200
                                                                                                                                    2006                                    2007     2008      2009    2010       2011      Q2
                             Service charges are in the range USD 3-7 per sqm per                                                                                                                                          2012
                             month, depending on the location and class of the business                                                                                                Class A          Class B
                             centre, as well as the amenities and services offered.
                                                                                                                     Source: Scot Holland CBRE
                             The average selling prices of office space in business centres
                             differ from district to district, and the current Almaty average                                                                        Prime Rents for Office Space
                             is approximately USD 2,000 per sqm. This being said, it                                                                        100
                                                                                                                                                                                   Moscow
                             should be noted that the selling prices of premium-class office
                             space have slightly increased during 1st Half of 2012 (by                                                                          80                                London
                                                                                                                                   USD per sqm per month




                                                                                                                                                                                                   City
                             approximately 2-3%). In addition, we have noted that
                             companies tend to submit more inquiries for the purchase of                                                                        60
                                                                                                                                                                             Astana
                             their own office premises.                                                                                                                                         Warsaw               Istanbul
                                                                                                                                                                40
                             A comparative analysis of prime office rents in EMEA region                                                                               Almaty                             Prague
                             (Europe, Middle East and Africa) showed that despite the fact                                                                                              Kyiv                          Budapest
                                                                                                                                                                20
                             that Almaty rates are lower than in other large cities like                                                                                                                     Sofia
                             Moscow and London, they are still above the prime rental
                                                                                                                                                                0
                             rates in many large cities of Eastern Europe and Asia.
                                                                                                                     Source: Scot Holland CBRE
                                                                                               Main cost saving initiatives

                                                                               Sale and leasebacks

                                                                          Capex reduction initiatives

                                                                          Office / warehouse closure

                                                                 Relocation to cheaper sub markets

                                                                    Supplier consolidation initiatives

                                                                  Shared workstations / hot desking

                                                                    Consolidation within the portfolio

                                                                 Renegotiation of length of the lease
Q2 2012




                                                       Renegotiation of financial terms of the lease

                                                                                    Space reduction

                                                                                                         0%   10%   20%   30%                               40%       50%      60%     70%      80%    90%

                             Source: Scot Holland CBRE
                                    Page 5
                                    ©2012, Scot Holland | CBRE
Locations of major Office developments in Almaty
Almaty Market View Offices




                                  Source: Google, Scot Holland CBRE

                             Market Zones

                             •   Al-Farabi Corridor – New Class A office buildings which include Nurly Tau, Esentai Park, and AFD, are located along Al Farabi
                                 Str. This zone will be the prime office property area for the following reasons: major tenants, existence of large land plots, high-rise
                                 buildings, world known design companies, professional property management companies, higher prices and rental rates, sufficient
                                 tenant/visitor parking, etc;
                             •   Dostyk Corridor – Older Class A office buildings along Dostyk Ave. and up to Gogol Str. to the North is a less desirable office
                                 space area, due to higher congestion, government restrictions on reconstruction, lack of clear land plots, limited tenant/visitor
                                 parking, lower prices and rental rates;
                             •   Extended Centre – An area with new Class B office premises, demanded by smaller companies who are willing to pay higher
                                 rental rates in order to stay closer to the centre of Almaty. Located predominately south of Abai Str. and east of Rozybakiev Str.,
                                 this area is characterized by both residential and commercial use projects and availability of land plots due to demolishing of older
                                 residential and commercial buildings;
                             •   Historic Centre – This office space area with older and lower-quality Class B buildings is located in the northern part of Almaty, up
                                 to Raimbek Ave. This zone is the least desirable due to high congestion, high residential use, lower quality buildings with
                                 practically no property management, limited or no tenant/visitor parking, and the lowest selling prices and rental rates.
Q2 2012




                                    Page6
                                    ©2012, Scot Holland | CBRE
SCOT HOLLAND | CBRE

                                                                                 Almaty Market View
                                                                                              Retail
   www.cbre.kz                                                                                                                      Q2 2012

                                       OVERVIEW
  Quick Stats                          The     2nd   Quarter    of   2012       was       This factor, along with the outdated and poorly
                           Change      characterized by a continuous positive trend       maintained infrastructure across all regions,
                             from
                                       and higher demand for lease of retail              makes it logistically challenging in terms of
                           Q1 Q2
                           12    11    premises. At the same time new brands are          transporting goods and providing services on
   Rental rates                        entering the market in addition to the             a nationwide basis, and significantly increases
                                       existing portfolio of experienced retail           overall business running costs.
   Absorption
                                       market players.                                    As a result, up until now many international
                                       The tendency towards involving new brands          retailers and world-known brands were having
                                       and experienced international players              second thoughts about the feasibility of
  Hot Topics                           would definitely contribute to the faster          entering the market and investing significant
                                       ‘natural development’ of the retail market         amounts of money in retail facilities in cities
• Increase of rental rates short- to
                                       segment, and especially of larger trade            across Kazakhstan.
  medium-term in new
                                       formats required by international brands.          Since late 2010 the retail market of
  conceptual and popular
                                       We expect that other international retail          Kazakhstan       saw     some     professional
  centres;                                                                                international retailers becoming more active
                                       operators will enter local market; however
• We estimate that at the current      this process would require sustained               with implementing their development programs
  moment the total Retail stock        negotiations.                                      in the country. The plans for expansion cover
  (GLA) in Almaty has reached                                                             mainly well located shopping centres with a
                                       Overall, the retail market in Kazakhstan           strong mix of both anchor tenants and
  ca. 533,000 sqm;                     consists of individual and specialized stores,     internationally known brands.           When
                                       shopping centres, bazaars, and wholesale
• Some shopping centres under                                                             negotiating with landlords, many well-
                                       markets. Due to its historical and economic        established retailers manage to get favourable
  construction and planned for
                                       particularities, the fact that it is an immature   lease conditions.
  commissioning earlier have
                                       market with very low population density,
  postponed their launch;                                                                 The situation on the retail market is starting to
                                       and the dependence of the economy on
                                                                                          change in a positive direction, due to the fact
• Stable demand for street retail      global oil & gas prices, the retail system
                                                                                          that several large internationally known chains
  facilities with intense              and quality levels in Kazakhstan vary
                                                                                          and brands have started looking for
                                       widely across the country cities and regions.
  pedestrian flows, good                                                                  possibilities to enter the market, either
  location and accessibility.          The active development and construction of         independently or through local partners. Thus
                                       shopping centres and shopping &                    in Q2 2012 the “Marks & Spenser” brand
                                       entertainment centres in Kazakhstan during         entered the Almaty market and opened its first
                                       the past 5-6 years was concentrated mostly         boutique in the centre of the city.
                                       in Almaty and Astana.
                                                                                          The new underground shopping centre
                                       The relatively low level of development of         “Almaly” with more than 60 stores offering
                                       the Kazakhstan retail market and the               famous international and local brands opened
                                       noticeable absence of large international          at the beginning of May 2012.
                                       operators are caused by several reasons,           At the moment, catering brands (cafes and
                                       the most prominent among which are: very           restaurants both currently operating and
                                       low population density, geographical               planning to enter the local market)
                                       position and complicated logistics caused          demonstrate interest in opening new retail
                                       by poor and outdated infrastructure. As a          outlets. The ‘Burger King’ brand opened its
                                       result, we can observe a lack of good              outlet in “Mega Alma-Ata” on 28th May 2012.
                                       quality retail space.
                                                                                          International retailers which have the
                                       Kazakhstan is the largest of the five              Kazakhstan market ”on their radar screens”
                                       countries forming the Central Asian region,        are primarily seeking opportunities in Almaty,
                                       but at the same time its low population of         due to its relatively larger retail volumes. It
                                       approximately 16.5 million people places it        should be noted that Russian retailers express
                                       among the least densely populated                  the highest interest in researching the local
                                       countries in the world.                            market.


                                                                                                                 ©2012, Scot Holland | CBRE
In recent years more than 28 shopping & entertainment centres               The rental rates in the existing shopping centres remained
                            (with a TGA of more than 5,000 sqm each), were constructed or               at the same level during the previous Quarter, with
Almaty Market View Retail

                            reconstructed. However, for various reasons, Almaty market still            exception of the shopping centres with least successful
                            experiences a deficit of conceptual project with proper location.           concepts, which are likely to decrease rental rate levels.
                            The table below shows existing Retail stock in Almaty, as well as           The current GLA index per 1,000 persons in Almaty in
                            vacancy levels:                                                             comparison to other Large Kazakhstan, CEE and CIS cities
                                                                                                        is shown below (conceptual centres only).
                             

                                                    Retail Market Indicators
                                                                                                        Due to the fact that the commissioning dates of a number of
                                Total existing stock (GLA, sqm)                     533,000
                                Vacancy                                      starting from 5%
                                                                                                        shopping centres were re-scheduled to a later date, the
                                                                                                        demand for high quality retail space still remains relatively
                            Source: Scot Holland CBRE
                                                                                                        high in conceptual shopping centres with professional
                            According to our estimates, as of the beginning of 2012, the total          management.
                            retail stock in Almaty (taking into account only centres with GLA
                                                                                                        In addition, the expected entry of new international brands
                            above 5,000 sqm) reached approximately 533,000 sqm.
                                                                                                        and retailers should stimulate the more active market
                            More than 10 projects are currently under construction or at                development and absorb newly-added retail space.
                            planning stage (expected to be completed in 2012 or later).
                                                                                                        The demand for retail premises in stand-alone buildings
                            Some shopping centres under construction and planned for                    within the retail zones of Almaty remained high during Q2
                            commissioning in 2011 have postponed their launch to a later date.          2012. Most retailers seek to occupy space in the so-called
                            Many existing shopping centres and retail facilities are of poor            «Golden Square», which however is short of proper retail
                            quality and lack an efficient concept, professional property                premises with large windows, high ceilings, loading areas,
                            management and appropriate tenant mix.                                      easy access ways and sufficient parking. In most cases,
                            As of today, ‘Mega Alma-Ata’, ‘Sputnik’, ‘A’port’ and ‘Prime Plaza’         available premises in the retail zones of Almaty do not
                            could be classified as the most conceptual and professionally               meet the requirements of international and local retailers.
                            managed shopping & entertainment facilities in Almaty.                      However the demand for such premises is still quite high,
                                                                                                        which is a reason for relatively high rental rates.
                                  Distribution of modern retail space by administrative                 Last but not least, we would like to note some additional
                                                  district of Almaty City                               factors, which will also have a significant, although
                                  Bostandyk                                       26%                   indirect, influence on the longer-term supply/demand
                                  Auezov                                          26%                   balance in the Retail property market segment:
                                  Zhetisu                                         20%                    • Overall economic development of the country;
                                  Alatau                                          12%                    • Growth of the average income level of the population;
                                  Medeu                                           10%                    • The entry of new international brands and retailers;
                                  Almaly                                            6%                   • Expected population growth;
                            Source Scot Holland CBRE                                                     • Participation in the newly-formed Customs Union with
                            A map with a more detailed explanation of the city administrative                 Russia and Belarus would have a positive effect on the
                            districts is given on the next page. The map also shows the                       rate of development of the local retail market
                            locations of existing shopping & entertainment facilities in Almaty.              segment;
                                                                                                         •    Pending infrastructure improvements in Kazakhstan’s
                                                                                                              major regional cities, etc.

                                               Distribution of Modern Retail                                                   Retail Space Provision Index
                                                Space, by Almaty Districts                                                       (sqm per 1,000 persons)

                                                                                                           Prague

                                                                    6%                                    Warsaw

                                                         10%                                             Budapest
                                                                                 26%                       Astana
                                                                                                           Zagreb

                                                   12%                                                     Aktobe

                                                                                                             Sofia
                                                                                                        Karaganda
                                                                                                           Almaty
                                                                                                          Moscow
                                                       20%                                                   Kiev
                                                                                26%
                                                                                                         Shymkent

                                                                                                                     0   100      200    300   400   500      600   700   800

                                       Bostandyk      Auezov       Zhetysu   Alatau    Medeu   Almaly


                            Source: Scot Holland CBRE                                                   Source: Scot Holland CBRE
Q2 2012




                                      Page 8
                                      ©2012, Scot Holland | CBRE
Locations of shopping & entertainment centres in Almaty
                             
Almaty Market View Retail




                                                                                                                                                                 For more information
                                                                                                                                                                 regarding the Market View,
                                                                                                                                                                 please contact:


                                                                                                                                                                 Scot Holland | CBRE
                                                                                                                                                                 Strategic Consulting


                                                                                                                                                                 Eugene Dolbilin
                                                                                                                                                                 Vice President
                                                                                                                                                                 Scot Holland | CBRE
                                                                                                                                                                 105, Dostyk Ave.,
                                                                                                                                                                 3rd floor
                                                                                                                                                                 Almaty, 050051
                                                                                                                                                                 Kazakhstan
                                                                                                                                                                 T: +7 (727) 258 1760
                                                                                                                                                                 F: +7 (727) 258 1768
                                                                                                                                                                 eugene.dolbilin@cbre.kz


                                                                                                                                                                 Peter Goranov
                                                                                                                                                                 Senior Manager
                                                                                                                                                                 Strategic Consulting and
                                                                                                                                                                 Valuations
                                             Source: Google, Scot Holland CBRE
                                                                                                                                                                 Scot Holland | CBRE
                            Administrative Districts                                                                                                             105, Dostyk Ave.,
                             


                            • Alatau - a new administrative district of Almaty, which was formerly the western outskirts of the city; its                        3rd floor
                              population is still to be assessed to obtain reliable figures; it represents a mix of low quality individual                       Almaty, 050051
                              households, industrial facilities etc;                                                                                             Kazakhstan
                            • Almaly – comprises the central part of Almaty; population 188,100; mostly residential properties,                                  T: +7 (727) 258 1760
                              both prestigious and less so, condominiums and houses; both fine and basic retail facilities; also some                            F: +7 (727) 258 1768
                              office space and light industrial facilities;                                                                                      peter.goranov@cbre.kz
                            • Auezov – comprises the western part of Almaty; population 370,200; mostly residential, not very
                              prestigious properties, multi-family at south-eastern part of the district, individual houses in the other
                              parts; basic retail; no contemporary office space;
                            • Bostandyk – comprises the southern part of Almaty; population 307,400; mostly business class
                              residential multi-family properties plus a few prestigious residential developments; expanding retail
                              facilities; business centres at the eastern end of the district;
                            • Medeu – comprises the south-eastern part of Almaty; population 164,300; the most prestigious
                              residential part with condominiums along Dostyk Ave. and individual houses in outlying parts; both
                              fine and basic retail facilities; the business core of Almaty;
                            • Turksib – comprises the outlying north-eastern part of Almaty; population 195,100; not prestigious
                              individual houses; basic retail; no contemporary office space and some industrial facilities;
                            • Zhetisu – comprises the northern part of Almaty; population 179,300; a mix of industrial facilities,
                              trade centres and less prestigious residential properties – condominiums at the southern end and
                              individual houses at the eastern and western parts.



                                DISCLAIMER 2012 Scot Holland | CB Richard Ellis
Q2 2012




                                The information herein has been obtained from sources believed reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have
                                not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to independently confirm
                                its accuracy and completeness. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used are for example only and do not
                                represent the current or future performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use by Scot Holland |
                                CBRE clients, and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of Scot Holland | CBRE.


                                           Page 9
                                           ©2012, Scot Holland | CBRE

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt? (9)

Retail sector-report
Retail sector-reportRetail sector-report
Retail sector-report
 
Net Lease Research Report by The Boulder Group
Net Lease Research Report by The Boulder GroupNet Lease Research Report by The Boulder Group
Net Lease Research Report by The Boulder Group
 
City Report Bangalore Office Market Q4 2010
City Report   Bangalore Office Market   Q4 2010City Report   Bangalore Office Market   Q4 2010
City Report Bangalore Office Market Q4 2010
 
VASO in China
VASO in ChinaVASO in China
VASO in China
 
Money gkk
Money  gkkMoney  gkk
Money gkk
 
Vietnam Real Estate Newsletter - No. 71, Week 4 Feb, 2009
Vietnam Real Estate Newsletter - No. 71, Week 4 Feb, 2009Vietnam Real Estate Newsletter - No. 71, Week 4 Feb, 2009
Vietnam Real Estate Newsletter - No. 71, Week 4 Feb, 2009
 
Office q4 2011
Office q4 2011Office q4 2011
Office q4 2011
 
Future Capital Holdings Ltd. Corporate Presentation 2010
Future Capital Holdings Ltd. Corporate Presentation 2010Future Capital Holdings Ltd. Corporate Presentation 2010
Future Capital Holdings Ltd. Corporate Presentation 2010
 
The Knowledge Report Beijing Office 2 Q2011
The Knowledge Report   Beijing Office 2 Q2011The Knowledge Report   Beijing Office 2 Q2011
The Knowledge Report Beijing Office 2 Q2011
 

Ähnlich wie Almaty Market View Q2 2012 Eng

Atyrau Market View Q2 2012 Eng
Atyrau Market View Q2 2012 EngAtyrau Market View Q2 2012 Eng
Atyrau Market View Q2 2012 Eng
lucapettini
 
GT Industry Intelligence Unit - Real Estate & Constructions 2012 Australia
GT Industry Intelligence Unit - Real Estate & Constructions 2012 AustraliaGT Industry Intelligence Unit - Real Estate & Constructions 2012 Australia
GT Industry Intelligence Unit - Real Estate & Constructions 2012 Australia
Grant Thornton
 
Analyst meet presentation
Analyst meet presentationAnalyst meet presentation
Analyst meet presentation
VasconEngineers
 
Analystmeetpresentation 101210003921-phpapp02
Analystmeetpresentation 101210003921-phpapp02Analystmeetpresentation 101210003921-phpapp02
Analystmeetpresentation 101210003921-phpapp02
VasconEngineers
 
North American Office highlights 2Q 2012
North American Office highlights 2Q 2012North American Office highlights 2Q 2012
North American Office highlights 2Q 2012
Coy Davidson
 
Realestate010709 090504162154-phpapp01
Realestate010709 090504162154-phpapp01Realestate010709 090504162154-phpapp01
Realestate010709 090504162154-phpapp01
vikas_sahu
 
Real estate analysis kozhikode
Real estate analysis kozhikodeReal estate analysis kozhikode
Real estate analysis kozhikode
Anjith Augustine
 
Single Tenant NNN Research Report Q4
Single Tenant NNN Research Report Q4Single Tenant NNN Research Report Q4
Single Tenant NNN Research Report Q4
The Boulder Group
 
Single Tenant Net Lease Research Report
Single Tenant Net Lease Research ReportSingle Tenant Net Lease Research Report
Single Tenant Net Lease Research Report
The Boulder Group
 
Central London Office Report 2Q 2011
Central London Office Report 2Q 2011Central London Office Report 2Q 2011
Central London Office Report 2Q 2011
Coy Davidson
 
Riyadh Real Estate Market Overview 2015 - English
Riyadh Real Estate Market Overview 2015 - EnglishRiyadh Real Estate Market Overview 2015 - English
Riyadh Real Estate Market Overview 2015 - English
Naveed Iqbal
 

Ähnlich wie Almaty Market View Q2 2012 Eng (20)

Atyrau Market View Q2 2012 Eng
Atyrau Market View Q2 2012 EngAtyrau Market View Q2 2012 Eng
Atyrau Market View Q2 2012 Eng
 
GT Industry Intelligence Unit - Real Estate & Constructions 2012 Australia
GT Industry Intelligence Unit - Real Estate & Constructions 2012 AustraliaGT Industry Intelligence Unit - Real Estate & Constructions 2012 Australia
GT Industry Intelligence Unit - Real Estate & Constructions 2012 Australia
 
Analyst meet presentation
Analyst meet presentationAnalyst meet presentation
Analyst meet presentation
 
Analystmeetpresentation 101210003921-phpapp02
Analystmeetpresentation 101210003921-phpapp02Analystmeetpresentation 101210003921-phpapp02
Analystmeetpresentation 101210003921-phpapp02
 
Net Lease Research Report q4 2012
Net Lease Research Report q4 2012 Net Lease Research Report q4 2012
Net Lease Research Report q4 2012
 
North American Office highlights 2Q 2012
North American Office highlights 2Q 2012North American Office highlights 2Q 2012
North American Office highlights 2Q 2012
 
Realestate010709 090504162154-phpapp01
Realestate010709 090504162154-phpapp01Realestate010709 090504162154-phpapp01
Realestate010709 090504162154-phpapp01
 
Real estate
Real estateReal estate
Real estate
 
Say Good Bye To Property Market
Say Good Bye To Property MarketSay Good Bye To Property Market
Say Good Bye To Property Market
 
Real estate analysis kozhikode
Real estate analysis kozhikodeReal estate analysis kozhikode
Real estate analysis kozhikode
 
Asia pacific office market overview 3Q 2012
Asia pacific office market overview 3Q 2012Asia pacific office market overview 3Q 2012
Asia pacific office market overview 3Q 2012
 
Single Tenant NNN Research Report Q4
Single Tenant NNN Research Report Q4Single Tenant NNN Research Report Q4
Single Tenant NNN Research Report Q4
 
Single Tenant Net Lease Research Report
Single Tenant Net Lease Research ReportSingle Tenant Net Lease Research Report
Single Tenant Net Lease Research Report
 
RCA 2012 Q3 Multifamily Trend Report
RCA 2012 Q3 Multifamily Trend ReportRCA 2012 Q3 Multifamily Trend Report
RCA 2012 Q3 Multifamily Trend Report
 
Central London Office Report 2Q 2011
Central London Office Report 2Q 2011Central London Office Report 2Q 2011
Central London Office Report 2Q 2011
 
Riyadh Real Estate Market Overview 2015 - English
Riyadh Real Estate Market Overview 2015 - EnglishRiyadh Real Estate Market Overview 2015 - English
Riyadh Real Estate Market Overview 2015 - English
 
Net Lease Research Report
Net Lease Research ReportNet Lease Research Report
Net Lease Research Report
 
Real Estate 210708
Real Estate 210708Real Estate 210708
Real Estate 210708
 
CBRE l Market View Emea I&L October 2011
CBRE l Market View Emea I&L October 2011CBRE l Market View Emea I&L October 2011
CBRE l Market View Emea I&L October 2011
 
Preview: Singapore Real Estate Market Outlook 2020 | Colliers Research - Sing...
Preview: Singapore Real Estate Market Outlook 2020 | Colliers Research - Sing...Preview: Singapore Real Estate Market Outlook 2020 | Colliers Research - Sing...
Preview: Singapore Real Estate Market Outlook 2020 | Colliers Research - Sing...
 

Almaty Market View Q2 2012 Eng

  • 1. SCOT HOLLAND | CBRE Almaty Market View Residential www.cbre.kz Q2 2012 OVERVIEW Quick Stats With the completion of the troubled housing Change construction and the termination of funding for Completed Residential from such facilities by the state, the 1st Half of 2012 Q1 Q2 Buildings ('000 sqm) also marked the start of the sate housing 10 000 12 11 construction program called "Affordable Housing Prices – 2020”. 1 000 Absorption 100 The implications and impact of the global 10 economic downturn have “cooled down” the Residential market segment, as a result of which 1 Hot Topics 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan- many players have left the market. However, the June stronger and more financially capable developers 2012 • Stable levels of selling prices have continued their construction activities, Kazakhstan Astana and rental rates on the although at slower rates. Source: Kazakhstan Statistics Agency residential market of Almaty; Housing Stock per Capita The total residential space commissioned in • The number of actual Almaty 1st half of 2012 comprised 471,300 sqm, 20,5 residential sale-and-purchase which represents a 45% increase on a y-o-y basis. 20,0 sqm per capita 19,5 transactions during January- According to information published by the 19,0 February 2012 increased on a Kazakhstan Statistics Agency, the number of 18,5 y-o-y basis; residential property sale & purchase transactions 18,0 during January-June 2012 in Almaty increased by 17,5 • Slight easing of the mortgage 12% year-on-year 17,0 lending terms caused by higher 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan-June Despite the increasing number of incoming 2012 competition between the Kazakhstan Almaty requests for sale & purchase of apartments/houses second-tier banks and and land plots, the real estate sales market still Source: Kazakhstan Statistics Agency increased demand on behalf remains slow. Property owners still quote high Almaty Housing Stock of the population; prices, which affects the market in a negative 26 000 manner. Potential buyers still cannot afford • Start of the ‘Affordable 25 000 purchasing housing at relatively high prices and 24 000 Housing – 2020’ state 1,000 sqm are waiting for further price decreases. 23 000 residential construction 22 000 program. The commissioned residential volumes in 21 000 Kazakhstan in the period January–June 2012 20 000 increased by 14.3% compared to the same 19 000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan- period of 2011. According to official statistics, June the largest shares of residential space in this 2012 period of 2012 were commissioned in Astana Source: Kazakhstan Statistics Agency (21% of total), Almaty (15.5% of total) and Average sale price, Almaty province (13.6% of total). primary market Regardless of the relative overall improvement of 4 000 the market situation, the activity of real estate 3 500 3 000 USD per sqm market players remains quite moderate. This can 2 500 be explained by the ongoing process of 2 000 1 500 overcoming the consequences of the market 1 000 downturn, as well as the low level of confidence in 500 the property market and cautiousness with regard 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan- to real estate investments. June 2012 According to the estimates of financial analysts, construction and real estate business are currently Source: Kazakhstan Statistics Agency considered among the riskiest fields of activities. ©2012, Scot Holland | CBRE
  • 2. The increase of supply of mortgage products from specialized In addition, the breakdown of the volume of commissioned rental institutions, such as ‘KMC’ and ‘Zhilstroysberbank’, shows the residential space by Province is as follows: Kostanay Province – Almaty Market View Residential wish of the Government to stimulate the construction sector. 6,300 sqm, Aktobe Province – 2,860 sqm, Almaty Province – Following that, second tier banks have also increased the 3,800 sqm and Karaganda Province – 4,700 sqm. A total of volume of offered mortgage loans.. Increased competition more than 136,000 sqm of rental residential space is planned to between the mortgage market players resulted in somewhat be commissioned in 2012. The amount of target financing eased financing terms and lowered interest rates of mortgage planned to be dedicated to the construction of rental residential loans. ‘Zhilstroysberbank’ moderated the terms for the space in 2012 amounts to KZT 34.6 Bn. participants of housing construction saving system, which It should be noted that in contrast with the pre-crisis period, mainly means decrease of the interest rates. In addition JSC when a large portion of buyers was willing to participate in ‘Mortgage Organization ‘Kazakhstan Mortgage Company’ shared interest construction projects, today this method of also changed its credit conditions for purchase of housing and purchasing a housing unit is the least popular among potential interest-shared participation in the construction of multi-family buyers due to the facts of non-bona fide activities of residential houses, by decreasing the interest rate. development companies using this scheme. However, despite the above, the system of evaluation of Currently the largest part of potential buyers are either borrower’s solvency remains strict. The banks continue to check considering the use of mortgage loans or their own funds, or solvency and paying capacity of customers very thoroughly. would proceed with the state housing program for obtaining an Based on the instructions issued by the Head of State, starting apartment. from 2011 a new residential construction program is being implemented. Its main purpose is to stimulate supply, in order The sales offices of several high-end residential complexes note to prevent a rapid increase of property prices, which may take a marked growth of customer activity, as well as and increase of place due to the current increase of demand and shrinking of the number of sales-and-purchase transactions. Our Company is supply on the residential market. There are practically no new also getting more enquiries from people who are interested in developments due to financing difficulties arising from the buying properties particularly houses. cautiousness of investors on the one hand, and high interest Changes to the laws «On architectural, urban planning and rates on foreign loans for local commercial banks – on the other construction activity» and «On licensing» came into force in the hand. The housing development program in the period 2011- 1st half of the year. These changes introduce stricter 2014 assumes the commissioning of 6 Million sqm of requirements to construction companies on obtaining licenses for residential space per year. construction activities, which should ultimately lead to an The program for Government support of the residential sector improvement of the quality of construction in Kazakhstan. includes 3 major support schemes: One of the recent trends on the rental housing market is that • construction of affordable housing by local authorities using corporate clients are now coming in with much lower budgets to the residential savings system, lease apartments for their employees. For example, several • allocation of funds to second-tier banks for the subsequent large companies are looking for housing (both apartments and financing of construction and mortgage lending, stand-alone houses) at around USD 2,000 per month, while the • construction of utility infrastructure. group of potential tenants with a budget in the range USD 4,000 - 5,000 per month is somewhat smaller. In addition, one of the goals of the State Program for the Development of Residential Construction in the Republic of We have also observed situations when tenants move from Kazakhstan is to increase the affordability of housing for wider expensive houses to more affordable ones. Landlords are now public through a better development of housing saving system. going to have to tighten their belts and offer their properties at In particular, this program stipulates that JSC ‘Housing much more realistic prices. The boom time of leasing prices, at Construction Saving Bank of Kazakhstan’ (‘Zhilstroysberbank’) least for the moment, is well and truly over. will grant loans to the special-priority groups of the population Rental rate levels continue to hold although landlords seem to be at an interest rate as low as 4% per annum. slightly more willing to negotiate. High end properties are in A new housing construction program - "Affordable Housing - demand (though much rarer) but unfortunately good ones are 2020" – was given a start during Q2 2012, envisaging the now proving extremely difficult to find, which indicates of a very construction of affordable housing units offered for rent with limited supply of properties with an actually good quality. subsequent buy-out. This program is aimed at achieving a In conclusion, we would like to note that the average price levels volume of construction of new residential space at the level of 6 on the Almaty primary and secondary residential markets have Mln sqm per year and reaching 10 Mln sqm per year by remained practically unchanged in the course of Q2 2012. 2020. During the period January-June 2012 a total of 32,000 sqm of rental residential space was completed and commissioned in Kazakhstan, out of which 25,400 sqm of apartment space. At the same time the largest proportion of commissioned rental Q2 2012 residential space – ca. 14,270 sqm – is located in Almaty. Page 2 ©2012, Scot Holland | CBRE
  • 3. Map of Almaty Residential market zones Market Zones • Al-Farabi Corridor – Currently, the most Almaty Market View Residential popular area for up-market projects, mostly due to the availability of large land plots for development and re-development, good road connections (though over-reliance on this artery leads to heavy traffic jams and is likely to decrease its popularity) and proximity to the mountains and to the expanding CBD of Almaty; • Dostyk Corridor – Lower part – Samal micro-districts were quite popular in the 1980’s – 1990’s when they were newly developed; there are some land plots for development and re-development; most projects in this area are Elite class, though Business class projects can also be found; • Extended Centre – Mostly residential stock from the 1950’s – 1970’s; with some land plots for development and re-development, there are a few Elite and Business class developments; • Golden Square – In the second half of 20th century, centre of Almaty City; residential stock mostly built in 1950’s – 1960’s, most of which is with excellent for those years quality and still very demanded; virtually there is not land free for development, but there are a few spots that were or will be re- developed; most of the buildings completed in the past 10 years are Elite class; • Lower Town – Poor quality residential stock, mostly individual houses and some apartment buildings; it is largely unpopular due to poor air quality, inefficient road network causing traffic jams, and higher density of industrial enterprises in the area; Source: Google, Scot Holland CBRE • Micro-districts – Mostly residential stock built in 1960’s – 1980’s, and some parts Map legend: with single-family houses; the areas closer to • Al-Farabi Corridor – red; the centre and to the mountains attract • Dostyk Corridor – dark blue; Business class developments, while the • Extended Centre – magenta; remaining territory hosts mostly Economy • Golden Square – yellow; class projects; • Lower Town – light green; • Mountain Belt –Most of the residential stock • Micro-districts – light blue; is single-family houses; an attractive area • Mountain Belt – dark green. due to its proximity to the mountains and lower population density, hosts a variety of Deluxe, Elite and Business class projects. Q2 2012 Page3 ©2012, Scot Holland | CBRE
  • 4. SCOT HOLLAND | CBRE Almaty Market View Offices www.cbre.kz Q2 2012 OVERVIEW Quick Stats Almaty remains the commercial focal point of oil- Due to the decreased demand for space in Change office and administrative buildings, the vacancy rich Kazakhstan and aspires to become Central from Asia’s regional financial centre. rate largely increased in 2009 reaching a level Q1 Q2 12 11 of approximately 40% both in Class A and The commercial real estate market of Almaty is Class B projects. Rental rates the best developed in the country, especially the office segment. However, starting from Q4 of 2009 the Occupancy demand for higher-class office premises started The bank liquidity crisis which started in August recovering gradually, and by the date of this 2007 affected the office market through slowing report the estimated average vacancy rate is down the construction and investment rates in Hot Topics approximately 24-25% and is expected to the real estate industry. decrease further in the short-to-medium term. • Despite the consequences of Nevertheless, both the economic and market The growth of business activity of the financial crisis, the Office indicators offer a positive outlook for the future manufacturing, retail and other entities in 2011 of office real estate projects in Almaty. This market remains relatively is a sign of improvement of the economic optimism has attracted multiple investors and stable; developers, thus making the office market situation, resulting in a GDP growth of 5.6% in 1st half of 2012 (according to preliminary data). • Rental rates across all classes environment more competitive every day. No significant increase in the rate of of office properties increased Taking into consideration projects completed construction of office developments was by 10 – 12% during Q2 of during 2010-2012, it is our estimate that at the observed during the Q1 2012. However, a present moment there are approximately 2012; new business centre with a Total Gross Area 650,000 sqm of leasable office space in (TGA) of 3,628 sqm was commissioned in the • The demand for office space Almaty. Baganashyl district of Almaty during Q2 2012. had been increasing during However, this number does not include Below is a brief overview of brokerage 2nd Quarter of 2012; numerous smaller office projects which are transactions for lease of commercial space mostly graded as Class B- or lower. • Occupancy rates in business completed recently with the involvement of Scot An analysis of the prime office yield levels in the Holland | CBRE: centres increased significantly EMEA regions (Europe, Middle East and Africa) compared to Q1 2012. o The “Urban Media” Company rented office shows that the Almaty market has one of the space in the “Nurly Tay” Business Complex. highest indicators, which on one hand evidences a high risk degree of the investments, and on the other hand shows that the local office market is very attractive for new players and investors. Prime Office Yields GDP Growth Rate, % y-o-y 16 (2003-2011) Almaty 14 12 Kyiv 10 12 8 % 10 6 Moscow Instanbul Sofia 4 8 Warsaw 2 Budapest 6 0 London Prague City 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 4 Source: Scot Holland CBRE Source: Kazakhstan Statistics Agency ©2012, Scot Holland | CBRE
  • 5. The 2nd Quarter of 2012 was characterized by a relative Office Monthly Rental Rates stability of rental rates across all Classes of office properties. 80 Pending for the annual financial performance results, many 70 companies are postponing their relocation to a new office Almaty Market View Offices 60 USD per sqm premises on to the next year. CBRE EMEA research work 50 shows that in the current environment many companies 40 (regardless of the industry they operate in), still consider real 30 estate as an important element of cost cutting (see the graph 20 below). In particular, the companies having long-term lease 10 agreements in Almaty are looking to agree on a lower rental 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 Q2 rate, and/or negotiate other commercial terms of their lease 2012 2012 agreements. Class A Class B Currently, the base rental rates for Class A office buildings Source: Scot Holland CBRE vary in the range USD 30 - 50 per sqm per month, with an estimated average of USD 32 per sqm per month. However, Almaty Office Sales Prices some specific Class A business centres still keep higher rental (USD per sqm) rate levels, in some cases (where for example the client leases 6 000 6 200 5 200 small-size premises) up to USD 50-60 per sqm per month. 5 200 4 500 The difference in office rental rates between Class A and 4 200 Class B is approximately 30%. The base rental rates for 3 200 3 000 3 200 Class B offices start from USD 15, up to ca. USD 25 per sqm 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 100 2 200 per month, with an estimated average of USD 20 per sqm 1 500 1 500 1 500 1 550 per month. 1 200 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q2 Service charges are in the range USD 3-7 per sqm per 2012 month, depending on the location and class of the business Class A Class B centre, as well as the amenities and services offered. Source: Scot Holland CBRE The average selling prices of office space in business centres differ from district to district, and the current Almaty average Prime Rents for Office Space is approximately USD 2,000 per sqm. This being said, it 100 Moscow should be noted that the selling prices of premium-class office space have slightly increased during 1st Half of 2012 (by 80 London USD per sqm per month City approximately 2-3%). In addition, we have noted that companies tend to submit more inquiries for the purchase of 60 Astana their own office premises. Warsaw Istanbul 40 A comparative analysis of prime office rents in EMEA region Almaty Prague (Europe, Middle East and Africa) showed that despite the fact Kyiv Budapest 20 that Almaty rates are lower than in other large cities like Sofia Moscow and London, they are still above the prime rental 0 rates in many large cities of Eastern Europe and Asia. Source: Scot Holland CBRE Main cost saving initiatives Sale and leasebacks Capex reduction initiatives Office / warehouse closure Relocation to cheaper sub markets Supplier consolidation initiatives Shared workstations / hot desking Consolidation within the portfolio Renegotiation of length of the lease Q2 2012 Renegotiation of financial terms of the lease Space reduction 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Source: Scot Holland CBRE Page 5 ©2012, Scot Holland | CBRE
  • 6. Locations of major Office developments in Almaty Almaty Market View Offices Source: Google, Scot Holland CBRE Market Zones • Al-Farabi Corridor – New Class A office buildings which include Nurly Tau, Esentai Park, and AFD, are located along Al Farabi Str. This zone will be the prime office property area for the following reasons: major tenants, existence of large land plots, high-rise buildings, world known design companies, professional property management companies, higher prices and rental rates, sufficient tenant/visitor parking, etc; • Dostyk Corridor – Older Class A office buildings along Dostyk Ave. and up to Gogol Str. to the North is a less desirable office space area, due to higher congestion, government restrictions on reconstruction, lack of clear land plots, limited tenant/visitor parking, lower prices and rental rates; • Extended Centre – An area with new Class B office premises, demanded by smaller companies who are willing to pay higher rental rates in order to stay closer to the centre of Almaty. Located predominately south of Abai Str. and east of Rozybakiev Str., this area is characterized by both residential and commercial use projects and availability of land plots due to demolishing of older residential and commercial buildings; • Historic Centre – This office space area with older and lower-quality Class B buildings is located in the northern part of Almaty, up to Raimbek Ave. This zone is the least desirable due to high congestion, high residential use, lower quality buildings with practically no property management, limited or no tenant/visitor parking, and the lowest selling prices and rental rates. Q2 2012 Page6 ©2012, Scot Holland | CBRE
  • 7. SCOT HOLLAND | CBRE Almaty Market View Retail www.cbre.kz Q2 2012 OVERVIEW Quick Stats The 2nd Quarter of 2012 was This factor, along with the outdated and poorly Change characterized by a continuous positive trend maintained infrastructure across all regions, from and higher demand for lease of retail makes it logistically challenging in terms of Q1 Q2 12 11 premises. At the same time new brands are transporting goods and providing services on Rental rates entering the market in addition to the a nationwide basis, and significantly increases existing portfolio of experienced retail overall business running costs. Absorption market players. As a result, up until now many international The tendency towards involving new brands retailers and world-known brands were having and experienced international players second thoughts about the feasibility of Hot Topics would definitely contribute to the faster entering the market and investing significant ‘natural development’ of the retail market amounts of money in retail facilities in cities • Increase of rental rates short- to segment, and especially of larger trade across Kazakhstan. medium-term in new formats required by international brands. Since late 2010 the retail market of conceptual and popular We expect that other international retail Kazakhstan saw some professional centres; international retailers becoming more active operators will enter local market; however • We estimate that at the current this process would require sustained with implementing their development programs moment the total Retail stock negotiations. in the country. The plans for expansion cover (GLA) in Almaty has reached mainly well located shopping centres with a Overall, the retail market in Kazakhstan strong mix of both anchor tenants and ca. 533,000 sqm; consists of individual and specialized stores, internationally known brands. When shopping centres, bazaars, and wholesale • Some shopping centres under negotiating with landlords, many well- markets. Due to its historical and economic established retailers manage to get favourable construction and planned for particularities, the fact that it is an immature lease conditions. commissioning earlier have market with very low population density, postponed their launch; The situation on the retail market is starting to and the dependence of the economy on change in a positive direction, due to the fact • Stable demand for street retail global oil & gas prices, the retail system that several large internationally known chains facilities with intense and quality levels in Kazakhstan vary and brands have started looking for widely across the country cities and regions. pedestrian flows, good possibilities to enter the market, either location and accessibility. The active development and construction of independently or through local partners. Thus shopping centres and shopping & in Q2 2012 the “Marks & Spenser” brand entertainment centres in Kazakhstan during entered the Almaty market and opened its first the past 5-6 years was concentrated mostly boutique in the centre of the city. in Almaty and Astana. The new underground shopping centre The relatively low level of development of “Almaly” with more than 60 stores offering the Kazakhstan retail market and the famous international and local brands opened noticeable absence of large international at the beginning of May 2012. operators are caused by several reasons, At the moment, catering brands (cafes and the most prominent among which are: very restaurants both currently operating and low population density, geographical planning to enter the local market) position and complicated logistics caused demonstrate interest in opening new retail by poor and outdated infrastructure. As a outlets. The ‘Burger King’ brand opened its result, we can observe a lack of good outlet in “Mega Alma-Ata” on 28th May 2012. quality retail space. International retailers which have the Kazakhstan is the largest of the five Kazakhstan market ”on their radar screens” countries forming the Central Asian region, are primarily seeking opportunities in Almaty, but at the same time its low population of due to its relatively larger retail volumes. It approximately 16.5 million people places it should be noted that Russian retailers express among the least densely populated the highest interest in researching the local countries in the world. market. ©2012, Scot Holland | CBRE
  • 8. In recent years more than 28 shopping & entertainment centres The rental rates in the existing shopping centres remained (with a TGA of more than 5,000 sqm each), were constructed or at the same level during the previous Quarter, with Almaty Market View Retail reconstructed. However, for various reasons, Almaty market still exception of the shopping centres with least successful experiences a deficit of conceptual project with proper location. concepts, which are likely to decrease rental rate levels. The table below shows existing Retail stock in Almaty, as well as The current GLA index per 1,000 persons in Almaty in vacancy levels: comparison to other Large Kazakhstan, CEE and CIS cities is shown below (conceptual centres only).   Retail Market Indicators Due to the fact that the commissioning dates of a number of Total existing stock (GLA, sqm) 533,000 Vacancy starting from 5% shopping centres were re-scheduled to a later date, the demand for high quality retail space still remains relatively Source: Scot Holland CBRE high in conceptual shopping centres with professional According to our estimates, as of the beginning of 2012, the total management. retail stock in Almaty (taking into account only centres with GLA In addition, the expected entry of new international brands above 5,000 sqm) reached approximately 533,000 sqm. and retailers should stimulate the more active market More than 10 projects are currently under construction or at development and absorb newly-added retail space. planning stage (expected to be completed in 2012 or later). The demand for retail premises in stand-alone buildings Some shopping centres under construction and planned for within the retail zones of Almaty remained high during Q2 commissioning in 2011 have postponed their launch to a later date. 2012. Most retailers seek to occupy space in the so-called Many existing shopping centres and retail facilities are of poor «Golden Square», which however is short of proper retail quality and lack an efficient concept, professional property premises with large windows, high ceilings, loading areas, management and appropriate tenant mix. easy access ways and sufficient parking. In most cases, As of today, ‘Mega Alma-Ata’, ‘Sputnik’, ‘A’port’ and ‘Prime Plaza’ available premises in the retail zones of Almaty do not could be classified as the most conceptual and professionally meet the requirements of international and local retailers. managed shopping & entertainment facilities in Almaty. However the demand for such premises is still quite high, which is a reason for relatively high rental rates. Distribution of modern retail space by administrative Last but not least, we would like to note some additional district of Almaty City factors, which will also have a significant, although Bostandyk 26% indirect, influence on the longer-term supply/demand Auezov 26% balance in the Retail property market segment: Zhetisu 20% • Overall economic development of the country; Alatau 12% • Growth of the average income level of the population; Medeu 10% • The entry of new international brands and retailers; Almaly 6% • Expected population growth; Source Scot Holland CBRE • Participation in the newly-formed Customs Union with A map with a more detailed explanation of the city administrative Russia and Belarus would have a positive effect on the districts is given on the next page. The map also shows the rate of development of the local retail market locations of existing shopping & entertainment facilities in Almaty. segment; • Pending infrastructure improvements in Kazakhstan’s major regional cities, etc. Distribution of Modern Retail Retail Space Provision Index Space, by Almaty Districts (sqm per 1,000 persons) Prague 6% Warsaw 10% Budapest 26% Astana Zagreb 12% Aktobe Sofia Karaganda Almaty Moscow 20% Kiev 26% Shymkent 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Bostandyk Auezov Zhetysu Alatau Medeu Almaly Source: Scot Holland CBRE Source: Scot Holland CBRE Q2 2012 Page 8 ©2012, Scot Holland | CBRE
  • 9. Locations of shopping & entertainment centres in Almaty   Almaty Market View Retail For more information regarding the Market View, please contact: Scot Holland | CBRE Strategic Consulting Eugene Dolbilin Vice President Scot Holland | CBRE 105, Dostyk Ave., 3rd floor Almaty, 050051 Kazakhstan T: +7 (727) 258 1760 F: +7 (727) 258 1768 eugene.dolbilin@cbre.kz Peter Goranov Senior Manager Strategic Consulting and   Valuations Source: Google, Scot Holland CBRE Scot Holland | CBRE Administrative Districts 105, Dostyk Ave.,   • Alatau - a new administrative district of Almaty, which was formerly the western outskirts of the city; its 3rd floor population is still to be assessed to obtain reliable figures; it represents a mix of low quality individual Almaty, 050051 households, industrial facilities etc; Kazakhstan • Almaly – comprises the central part of Almaty; population 188,100; mostly residential properties, T: +7 (727) 258 1760 both prestigious and less so, condominiums and houses; both fine and basic retail facilities; also some F: +7 (727) 258 1768 office space and light industrial facilities; peter.goranov@cbre.kz • Auezov – comprises the western part of Almaty; population 370,200; mostly residential, not very prestigious properties, multi-family at south-eastern part of the district, individual houses in the other parts; basic retail; no contemporary office space; • Bostandyk – comprises the southern part of Almaty; population 307,400; mostly business class residential multi-family properties plus a few prestigious residential developments; expanding retail facilities; business centres at the eastern end of the district; • Medeu – comprises the south-eastern part of Almaty; population 164,300; the most prestigious residential part with condominiums along Dostyk Ave. and individual houses in outlying parts; both fine and basic retail facilities; the business core of Almaty; • Turksib – comprises the outlying north-eastern part of Almaty; population 195,100; not prestigious individual houses; basic retail; no contemporary office space and some industrial facilities; • Zhetisu – comprises the northern part of Almaty; population 179,300; a mix of industrial facilities, trade centres and less prestigious residential properties – condominiums at the southern end and individual houses at the eastern and western parts. DISCLAIMER 2012 Scot Holland | CB Richard Ellis Q2 2012 The information herein has been obtained from sources believed reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to independently confirm its accuracy and completeness. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used are for example only and do not represent the current or future performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use by Scot Holland | CBRE clients, and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of Scot Holland | CBRE. Page 9 ©2012, Scot Holland | CBRE