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Supply Chain Agility
       October 2012
Evolving Practices




              Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 2
Agenda




         Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 3
Year-over-Year Growth




                Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 4
Average Days of Inventory by Year

                                          250.0




                                          200.0
Days of Inventory




                                          150.0




                                          100.0




                                            50.0




                                             0.0
                                                   2000    2001    2002    2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008    2009    2010    2011
                    Consumer Packaged Goods        59.0    57.0    62.0    64.0    67.0    67.0    68.0    70.0    70.0    64.0    64.0    67.0
                    Chemical                       71.5    71.9    78.2    75.1    62.0    70.3    68.1    64.3    64.3    78.6    72.9    72.8
                    Pharma                         122.2   133.7   190.1   171.0   184.3   175.6   167.8   149.8   154.9   198.7   154.3   131.8
                    High Tech                      93.1    57.6    46.5    48.5    35.9    37.3    43.8    36.8    34.6    41.3    34.8    30.4
                    Average                        86.5    80.0    94.2    89.6    87.3    87.5    86.9    80.2    81.0    95.6    81.5    75.5

                    Source: Supply Chain Insights 2012


                                                                                                    Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 5
Average Days of Working Capital by Industry

                                                      350.0

                                                      300.0
Days of Working Capital




                                                      250.0

                                                      200.0

                                                      150.0

                                                      100.0

                                                       50.0

                                                         0.0

                                                       -50.0
                                                               2000   2001   2002    2003   2004    2005     2006   2007    2008    2009    2010    2011
                              Consumer Packaged Goods -20.0           -8.0   -12.0   -2.0   -21.0   -23.0    -8.0   -18.0   -11.0   -10.0   -12.0   -13.0
                              Chemical                 37.3           44.7   61.7    71.9   64.8    64.1     63.8    57.0   51.7    74.8    85.6    77.0
                              Pharma                           64.1   56.4   48.4    56.2   71.8    94.1     92.6    88.1   87.1    111.0 116.0 113.2
                              High Tech                        231.5 290.3 283.5 243.5 173.5 138.9 109.4 103.0              92.4    131.9 138.9 140.9
                              Average                          78.2   95.9   95.4    92.4   72.3    68.5     64.5    57.5   55.1    76.9    82.1    79.5
                                                               0.0    0.0    0.0     0.0    0.0     0.0       0.0    0.0     0.0     0.0    0.0     0.0

                          Source: Supply Chain Insights 2012



                                                                                                            Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 6
Data Latency and Distortion

              Retailer DC   Manufacturer DC              Suppliers
 Store




                                                                                Demand
                                                                                 Signal


                                                                              Accurate
                                                          Almost               Weekly
Trivial         Easy            Difficult               Impossible           Forecasting
                                                                                is ...

Instant       3-10 Days       10-20 Days                                     Delay from
                                                        20-50 Days
                              20-45 Days                                     Purchase to
Variable      7-20 Days                                 45-80 Days             Signal




                            Red Represents Emerging Economies with
                            Distributor Trade
                                              Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 7
Building End-to-End Value Networks
Today




                    Manufacturer




 True collaboration only happens when there is a
 sustaining win/win value proposition.

                                   Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 8
A Story of Value Chain Leaders




                  Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 9
Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin (2000-2011)
              SUMMARY SLIDE




                             Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 10
Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin (2000-2011)
              SUMMARY SLIDE




                             Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 11
Collaboration: The Right Stuff

  SHARED
   VISION
                 +    SKILLS   +   INCENTIVE   +   RESOURCES   +   PLAN   +   LEADERSHIP         =    CHANGE

                      SKILLS   +   INCENTIVE   +   RESOURCES   +   PLAN                          =     CONFUSION


  SHARED
   VISION
                 +                 INCENTIVE   +   RESOURCES   +   PLAN   +   LEADERSHIP         =       ANXIETY



  SHARED                                                                                                   FALSE
                 +    SKILLS   +   INCENTIVE   +   RESOURCES              +   LEADERSHIP         =
   VISION                                                                                                 STARTS


  SHARED
   VISION
                 +    SKILLS   +   INCENTIVE                   +   PLAN   +   LEADERSHIP         =   FRUSTRATION



  SHARED                                                                                                GRADUAL
                 +    SKILLS                   +   RESOURCES   +   PLAN   +   LEADERSHIP         =
   VISION                                                                                               CHANGE
Source: J.P. Kotter



                                                                          Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 12
Agenda




         Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 13
Supply Chain Management:
Top 3 Elements of Pain for Respondent




                         Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 14
Evolution of Supply Chain Process
                  Excellence
Align:                                 Continuous
           Building Horizontal           Testing                    Orchestrate
Market     Process Connectors           Learning
                                       Improving                 Demand and Supply
Driven                                  In Market


   Adapt:
   Demand            Resilient
                                        Reliable
   Driven
                                           Right Product            Efficient
                          Absorb
       Sense              Demand
      Demand              Volatility        Right Place                         Cost
     and Supply

                                             Right Time
                                                                            Procure to
       Shape           Absorb Supply                                       pay/order to
    Demand and           Volatility                                           cash
    Supply based                             Right Cost
     on Market




                                                          Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 15
Supply Chain “Excellence”
        Definition




                 Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 16
Agenda




         Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 17
An Athlete Needs:




             Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 18
What is Agility?




             Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 19
Agility Importance vs. Performance




                      Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 20
Scenario Planning
What-if Analysis
The Need for Balance




               Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 23
S&OP Balance




          Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 24
Starts with the Design of Value Network
                                    Strategy

                                                       Business Strategy
                           What are the right things to do to increase company value?

                                      Value-network Supply Chain Strategy
                    What are the right ways to support the business strategy?
            What are the right trade-offs between value drivers for each value network?

  Align demand Right product                              Design the            Build                  Align supply
 Supply chain strategy
  relationships       platforms                            supply           organizational             relationships
                                                          response           systems and
                                                                            manage talent
                                                                                                         Effective Supply
     Demand Networks                 Design Networks                             Continuous                  Networks
                                                                                Improvement
    Joint Value Creation              Innovation            Supply Chain                                Execution of buy-
         Strategies                  Methodologies         Network Design   Capabilities Required        side strategies


                                                       Business Process
                                             How do I do the right things right?
Source: Supply Chain Insights, LLC




                                                                               Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 25
A Supply Chain
   is a Complex System
 with Complex Processes
with Increasing Complexity




                  Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 26
Conquering the Effective Frontier


                              Profitable Growth

                    Revenue                    Cost of Goods

                               Working Capital

                    Corporate Social Responsibility

  R&D Strategy and Investment               Asset Strategy and Investment

  Forecast Accuracy          Customer Service                 Inventory

  Channel Strategy             Product and               Supplier Strategy
                              Service Portfolio
   Sales     Distribution   Manufacturing         Logistics        Procurement
  Policies    Policies        Policies            Policies           Policies

  Returns    Backorders     First Pass Yield    Empty Miles        Material Yield



                                                       Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 27
Useful Ratios




            Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 28
What is Best in Class?


•   Performance better than peer group
•   Year-over-year improvements
•   Consistency in results
•   Leadership in managing trade-offs




                              Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 29
Corporate Summary




             Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 30
Metrics Included for Comparison




                  Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 31
Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin
           (2000-2003)




                    Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 32
Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin
           (2004-2007)




                    Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 33
Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin
            (2008-2011)




                    Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 34
Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin
   (2000-2011) SUMMARY SLIDE




                     Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 35
Inventory Turns vs. Revenue per Employee
               (2002-2003)




                       Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 36
Inventory Turns vs. Revenue per Employee
               (2004-2007)




                       Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 37
Inventory Turns vs. Revenue per Employee
               (2008-2011)




                       Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 38
Inventory Turns vs. Revenue per Employee
      (2002-2011) SUMMARY SLIDE




                       Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 39
S&OP Process
 Plan Execution




                  Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 40
Challenge




            Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 41
Wrap-up


• We have spoken for many years about the
  need for agility in the supply chain, but we
  have not designed for it or measured it.
• As our supply chains become more central to
  global success, agility becomes more
  important.




                             Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 42
Join Us!

www.scicommunity.com




                       Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 43
EDUCATE

SCI Research     Supply Chain Index    Ask a Supply Chain Wizard          Supply Chain Wiki




   Blogs       Videos, Webinars, and       Share Your Own
                     Podcasts




                                                    Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 44
ENRICH

Consulting            Technology




                                                    NEW




                        Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 45
EVOLVE

  Job Postings             Events




Salary Information        Help Board



                                                        NEW




                            Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 46
Who is Supply Chain Insights?


Supply Chain Insights is focused on delivering
actionable advice for supply chain leaders.
A company dedicated to research, turn to us
when you want the latest insights on supply
chain trends, technologies to know and metrics
that matter.




                               Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 47
Where is Your Opportunity?




                  Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 48
Who is Lora?

• Founder of Supply Chain Insights
• Partner at Altimeter Group (leader in open
  research)
• 7 years of Management Experience leading
  Analyst Teams at Gartner and AMR Research
• 8 years Experience in Marketing and Selling
  Supply Chain Software at Descartes Systems
  Group and Manugistics (now JDA)
• 15 Years Leading teams in Manufacturing and
  Distribution operations for Clorox, Kraft/General
  Foods, Nestle/Dreyers Grand Ice Cream and
  Procter & Gamble.


                          Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 49
Where do you find Lora?


 Contact Information: loracecere@gmail.com
 Blog: www.supplychainshaman.com
 (4000 pageviews/month)
 Twitter: lcecere 3300 followers. Rated as the
 top rated supply chain social network user.
 Linkedin: linkedin.com/pub/lora-
 cecere/0/196/573 (2300 in the network)




                        Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 50

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APICS Presentation on Agility on October 4

  • 1. Supply Chain Agility October 2012
  • 2. Evolving Practices Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 2
  • 3. Agenda Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 3
  • 4. Year-over-Year Growth Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 4
  • 5. Average Days of Inventory by Year 250.0 200.0 Days of Inventory 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Consumer Packaged Goods 59.0 57.0 62.0 64.0 67.0 67.0 68.0 70.0 70.0 64.0 64.0 67.0 Chemical 71.5 71.9 78.2 75.1 62.0 70.3 68.1 64.3 64.3 78.6 72.9 72.8 Pharma 122.2 133.7 190.1 171.0 184.3 175.6 167.8 149.8 154.9 198.7 154.3 131.8 High Tech 93.1 57.6 46.5 48.5 35.9 37.3 43.8 36.8 34.6 41.3 34.8 30.4 Average 86.5 80.0 94.2 89.6 87.3 87.5 86.9 80.2 81.0 95.6 81.5 75.5 Source: Supply Chain Insights 2012 Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 5
  • 6. Average Days of Working Capital by Industry 350.0 300.0 Days of Working Capital 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 -50.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Consumer Packaged Goods -20.0 -8.0 -12.0 -2.0 -21.0 -23.0 -8.0 -18.0 -11.0 -10.0 -12.0 -13.0 Chemical 37.3 44.7 61.7 71.9 64.8 64.1 63.8 57.0 51.7 74.8 85.6 77.0 Pharma 64.1 56.4 48.4 56.2 71.8 94.1 92.6 88.1 87.1 111.0 116.0 113.2 High Tech 231.5 290.3 283.5 243.5 173.5 138.9 109.4 103.0 92.4 131.9 138.9 140.9 Average 78.2 95.9 95.4 92.4 72.3 68.5 64.5 57.5 55.1 76.9 82.1 79.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: Supply Chain Insights 2012 Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 6
  • 7. Data Latency and Distortion Retailer DC Manufacturer DC Suppliers Store Demand Signal Accurate Almost Weekly Trivial Easy Difficult Impossible Forecasting is ... Instant 3-10 Days 10-20 Days Delay from 20-50 Days 20-45 Days Purchase to Variable 7-20 Days 45-80 Days Signal Red Represents Emerging Economies with Distributor Trade Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 7
  • 8. Building End-to-End Value Networks Today Manufacturer True collaboration only happens when there is a sustaining win/win value proposition. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 8
  • 9. A Story of Value Chain Leaders Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 9
  • 10. Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin (2000-2011) SUMMARY SLIDE Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 10
  • 11. Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin (2000-2011) SUMMARY SLIDE Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 11
  • 12. Collaboration: The Right Stuff SHARED VISION + SKILLS + INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + PLAN + LEADERSHIP = CHANGE SKILLS + INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + PLAN = CONFUSION SHARED VISION + INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + PLAN + LEADERSHIP = ANXIETY SHARED FALSE + SKILLS + INCENTIVE + RESOURCES + LEADERSHIP = VISION STARTS SHARED VISION + SKILLS + INCENTIVE + PLAN + LEADERSHIP = FRUSTRATION SHARED GRADUAL + SKILLS + RESOURCES + PLAN + LEADERSHIP = VISION CHANGE Source: J.P. Kotter Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 12
  • 13. Agenda Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 13
  • 14. Supply Chain Management: Top 3 Elements of Pain for Respondent Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 14
  • 15. Evolution of Supply Chain Process Excellence Align: Continuous Building Horizontal Testing Orchestrate Market Process Connectors Learning Improving Demand and Supply Driven In Market Adapt: Demand Resilient Reliable Driven Right Product Efficient Absorb Sense Demand Demand Volatility Right Place Cost and Supply Right Time Procure to Shape Absorb Supply pay/order to Demand and Volatility cash Supply based Right Cost on Market Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 15
  • 16. Supply Chain “Excellence” Definition Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 16
  • 17. Agenda Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 17
  • 18. An Athlete Needs: Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 18
  • 19. What is Agility? Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 19
  • 20. Agility Importance vs. Performance Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 20
  • 23. The Need for Balance Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 23
  • 24. S&OP Balance Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 24
  • 25. Starts with the Design of Value Network Strategy Business Strategy What are the right things to do to increase company value? Value-network Supply Chain Strategy What are the right ways to support the business strategy? What are the right trade-offs between value drivers for each value network? Align demand Right product Design the Build Align supply Supply chain strategy relationships platforms supply organizational relationships response systems and manage talent Effective Supply Demand Networks Design Networks Continuous Networks Improvement Joint Value Creation Innovation Supply Chain Execution of buy- Strategies Methodologies Network Design Capabilities Required side strategies Business Process How do I do the right things right? Source: Supply Chain Insights, LLC Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 25
  • 26. A Supply Chain is a Complex System with Complex Processes with Increasing Complexity Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 26
  • 27. Conquering the Effective Frontier Profitable Growth Revenue Cost of Goods Working Capital Corporate Social Responsibility R&D Strategy and Investment Asset Strategy and Investment Forecast Accuracy Customer Service Inventory Channel Strategy Product and Supplier Strategy Service Portfolio Sales Distribution Manufacturing Logistics Procurement Policies Policies Policies Policies Policies Returns Backorders First Pass Yield Empty Miles Material Yield Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 27
  • 28. Useful Ratios Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 28
  • 29. What is Best in Class? • Performance better than peer group • Year-over-year improvements • Consistency in results • Leadership in managing trade-offs Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 29
  • 30. Corporate Summary Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 30
  • 31. Metrics Included for Comparison Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 31
  • 32. Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin (2000-2003) Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 32
  • 33. Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin (2004-2007) Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 33
  • 34. Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin (2008-2011) Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 34
  • 35. Cash-to-Cash Cycle vs. Gross Margin (2000-2011) SUMMARY SLIDE Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 35
  • 36. Inventory Turns vs. Revenue per Employee (2002-2003) Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 36
  • 37. Inventory Turns vs. Revenue per Employee (2004-2007) Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 37
  • 38. Inventory Turns vs. Revenue per Employee (2008-2011) Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 38
  • 39. Inventory Turns vs. Revenue per Employee (2002-2011) SUMMARY SLIDE Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 39
  • 40. S&OP Process Plan Execution Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 40
  • 41. Challenge Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 41
  • 42. Wrap-up • We have spoken for many years about the need for agility in the supply chain, but we have not designed for it or measured it. • As our supply chains become more central to global success, agility becomes more important. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 42
  • 43. Join Us! www.scicommunity.com Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 43
  • 44. EDUCATE SCI Research Supply Chain Index Ask a Supply Chain Wizard Supply Chain Wiki Blogs Videos, Webinars, and Share Your Own Podcasts Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 44
  • 45. ENRICH Consulting Technology NEW Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 45
  • 46. EVOLVE Job Postings Events Salary Information Help Board NEW Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 46
  • 47. Who is Supply Chain Insights? Supply Chain Insights is focused on delivering actionable advice for supply chain leaders. A company dedicated to research, turn to us when you want the latest insights on supply chain trends, technologies to know and metrics that matter. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 47
  • 48. Where is Your Opportunity? Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 48
  • 49. Who is Lora? • Founder of Supply Chain Insights • Partner at Altimeter Group (leader in open research) • 7 years of Management Experience leading Analyst Teams at Gartner and AMR Research • 8 years Experience in Marketing and Selling Supply Chain Software at Descartes Systems Group and Manugistics (now JDA) • 15 Years Leading teams in Manufacturing and Distribution operations for Clorox, Kraft/General Foods, Nestle/Dreyers Grand Ice Cream and Procter & Gamble. Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 49
  • 50. Where do you find Lora? Contact Information: loracecere@gmail.com Blog: www.supplychainshaman.com (4000 pageviews/month) Twitter: lcecere 3300 followers. Rated as the top rated supply chain social network user. Linkedin: linkedin.com/pub/lora- cecere/0/196/573 (2300 in the network) Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2012, p. 50

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Why have we not been able to make progress on inventory across supply chain industries?
  2. S&OP is one of the largest factors in driving agility. How do you define it?
  3. Has S&OP improved agility for you?
  4. Only 8% of organizations have sufficient what if capabilities do manage the S&OP Process to their satisfaction. How about you?
  5. People speak of IBP and financial analysis. Which of these do you do? What are the issues with the ones that you have to track? Tell us the details that are stumbling blocks.
  6. What is balance? Are you balanced?
  7. What is the impact of being balanced?
  8. How do you tie planning to execution?
  9. What challenges have you seen and how have you overcome them?