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Big Data Analytics:
Lessons From The Pioneers
Recommendations For New Leaders
CU Leeds School of Business Analytics Conference
September 2013
Boulder, Colorado
#LeedsAnalytics
Bill Jacobs
Director, Product Marketing - Revolution Analytics
@bill_jacobs
1
My Talk Today:
 Big Data and Big Analytics
 War Stories: Good, Bad and Ugly
 Lessons and Recommendations To Consider
3
First generation predictive analytics

Direct outgrowth of Business Intelligence
What is Big Data?

Volume Variety

Confidential to Revolution Analytics

Velocity

5
What is Big Data?

Big Data is big.
Data set so large it cannot be managed in conventional database
with acceptable performance and at acceptable cost.

Volume
Confidential to Revolution Analytics

6
What is Big Data?

Big Data is messy.
70-90% of all data generated lacks predefined structure or is
difficult to map into a conventional data model.

Variety
Confidential to Revolution Analytics

7
What is Big Data?

Big Data moves.
ICU: predict patient events
FICO: flag suspect transactions

Oreo: Superbowl ad from Tweets
Retail: push in-store offers

Velocity
Confidential to Revolution Analytics

8
Big Data meets Big Math =
New Business Outcomes

THE PERFECT STORM
+ Computing Power
+ Data
+ Pace of Business
+ Customer Expectations

+ Data Science
+ Computer Science
+ Management Science

Confidential to Revolution Analytics

Better Business
Decisions

New
Business
Outcomes

9
Second generation predictive analytics

2nd Generation Predictive
Analytics
Big Data
Machine Learning
Real Time / Nr Real Time

Quick to Fail / Experimentation
Continuous Model
Improvement = Value
Big Data vs. Big Data Analytics

Volume Variety

Velocity

The More Important V’s:

Veracity while delivering Value, and
embracing of Volatility.
Assuring

Confidential to Revolution Analytics

11
Typical Challenges Facing Analytical Organizations

Big Data
• New Data
Sources
• Data Variety
& Velocity
• Data
Movement,
Memory
Limits

Complex
Computation

Enterprise
Readiness

• Innovative
Models
• Experiments
• Many Small
Models
• Ensemble
Methods
• Simulation

• Many platform
choices
• Production
Support
• Deploy to
Business
Users

Confidential to Revolution Analytics

Speed &
Production
Efficiency
• Model Life
• Many Models
• Long Cycle
Time
• Faster
Decisions
• Big Hardware

Talent
• Finding data
scientists
• Training
• Creating an
Analytical
culture

12
Analytical Competitors of Tomorrow
Sustainability Analytics

Customer / Marketing Analytics

Parts Optimization / Pricing

HR Analytics
Big Data &
Big
Analytics

Kaizen Process Excellence

Better
Decisions

Warranty Analytics

More Models
More Quickly

Predictive Asset Analytics

Supply Chain Analytics
Tools: Incredible Visualization, Descriptive and
Predictive Statistics, and Machine Learning

Machine Learning Algorithms in R
Confidential to Revolution Analytics

14
Stories: The Bad, The Ugly and The Good
 The Ugly: Abuse.
 The Bad: Missteps and Missed Opportunities.
 The Good: Big Analytics Doing Good

15
The Ugly: Governmental Overreach Using Big Data
WikiLeaks, Edward Snowden, NSA…
And now the CBP:
Customs and Border Protection are Stopping and
Searching Private Flights.
Aircraft interceptions & searches after the flights
stopped in Colorado [where Pot has been legalized].
Was a law broken? Was an unreasonable search
conducted? How were the flights selected?
Bigger Question: Was the Data Legally Obtained?
16
The Ugly: Commercially - Even LinkedIn!
“”When users sign up for LinkedIn they are
required to provide an external email address
as their username and to setup a new
password for their LinkedIn account. LinkedIn
uses this information to hack into the user’s
external email account and extract email
addresses. LinkedIn is able to download these
addresses without requesting the password
for the external email accounts or obtaining
user’ consent.”
17
The Bad: Beware How You Use It.

18
Stories: Big Analytics Doing Good in the World
 The Ugly.
 The Bad.
 The Good: Big Analytics Doing Good
– Kaiser and Vioxx
– Google Flu
– Medicare and the Big Insurers
– Jepessen and Cost Containment in Airline Operations

– NYC Building Inspectors Save First Responder Lives
– Netflix and My Movie Watching
– Identity Resolution & Healthcare Fraud

19
The Bad: Becoming Better Sensors – Google Flu

20
The Good: Addressing Drug Outcomes & Side
Effects Retroactively
 Vioxx and Celebrex were both approved medications
 Kaiser Permanente Studied Outcomes for 1.4M Members
 Vioxx was proven to be linked with increased heart attacks
– 27,000 Heart Attacks over 4 years.

 Result: Vioxx Pulled from Market. Lives Saved.

21
The Good: Center for Medicare 5 Star Program
Incents Big Data Analysis To Huge Gains
 Improvement Incentives + Business Gains Projected to Equal
 CMS Incentives Pay Higher Rates for Programs with Higher Satisfaction
Ratings.
 Major Insurer Estimates $20B Revenue Improvement for a ½ Star
Increase.

22
The Good: Making Air Travel More Cost Effective
 Jeppesen Tail Assignment
 Automated Aircraft Routing and Assignment
 Found $10M In First Analysis of One Airline’s Data

Optimize Aircraft Assignment:
 Fuel Costs
 Fuel Consumption
 Maintenance Needs
 Operational Profile
 Passenger Traffic

Additional Opportunities:
 Predictive Maintenance
 Speed vs. Cost Planning
 Regulatory Compliance
 Maintenance Period
Adjustments

23
Stories: Big Analytics Doing Good in the World
 The Ugly.
 The Bad.
 The Good: Big Analytics Doing Good
– Vioxx, Celebrex in the Court of Kaiser Permanente
– Google Flu
– Medicare and the Big Insurers
– Jepessen and Cost Containment in Airline Operations

– NYC Building Inspectors Save First Responder Lives
– Netflix and My Movie Watching
– Identity Resolution & Healthcare Fraud

24
Lessons
Big Gets Bigger.
 New Data Sets, New Methods, New
Audiences

 Today: Social Networks and Media,
Tomorrow: Internet of Everything

No Business Is Immune
 Diverse Businesses Are Capitalizing
from Big Data Analytics

Veracity Demands Vigilance;
Volatility Demands Investment
 Stale Predictions Put Companies On
The Line
 Humans Often Represent The Greatest
Inertia

Regulation Trails Abuses

HR Has a Huge Challenge

 NSA on FISA Wiretaps: “We Only
Collect Metadata”

 Talent Pool Governs Outcomes

Organizational Change Is Critical

 Attraction, Cultivation and Retention of
Once-Obscure Talents

 Build a Shared Big Data Culture

 Adapt Business & IT Practices Accord

25
Recommendations
 Change Your Culture
 Fail Fast; Learn From Failure
 Engage a Broader Audience
– Identify Profiles of Stakeholders & Adapt To Them
– Develop a Career Path For Prediction’s Stakeholders

 Treat Predictions as Products; Data Infrastructure As a Prediction Factory
 Life’s Too Short…

26
Thank you
Revolution Analytics is the leading commercial
provider of software and support for the
popular open source R statistics language.
www.revolutionanalytics.com, 1.855.GET.REVO, Twitter: @RevolutionR
27

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2013 10 cu leeds school big data conference - bill jacobs - revolution analytics

  • 1. Big Data Analytics: Lessons From The Pioneers Recommendations For New Leaders CU Leeds School of Business Analytics Conference September 2013 Boulder, Colorado #LeedsAnalytics Bill Jacobs Director, Product Marketing - Revolution Analytics @bill_jacobs 1
  • 2. My Talk Today:  Big Data and Big Analytics  War Stories: Good, Bad and Ugly  Lessons and Recommendations To Consider
  • 3. 3
  • 4. First generation predictive analytics Direct outgrowth of Business Intelligence
  • 5. What is Big Data? Volume Variety Confidential to Revolution Analytics Velocity 5
  • 6. What is Big Data? Big Data is big. Data set so large it cannot be managed in conventional database with acceptable performance and at acceptable cost. Volume Confidential to Revolution Analytics 6
  • 7. What is Big Data? Big Data is messy. 70-90% of all data generated lacks predefined structure or is difficult to map into a conventional data model. Variety Confidential to Revolution Analytics 7
  • 8. What is Big Data? Big Data moves. ICU: predict patient events FICO: flag suspect transactions Oreo: Superbowl ad from Tweets Retail: push in-store offers Velocity Confidential to Revolution Analytics 8
  • 9. Big Data meets Big Math = New Business Outcomes THE PERFECT STORM + Computing Power + Data + Pace of Business + Customer Expectations + Data Science + Computer Science + Management Science Confidential to Revolution Analytics Better Business Decisions New Business Outcomes 9
  • 10. Second generation predictive analytics 2nd Generation Predictive Analytics Big Data Machine Learning Real Time / Nr Real Time Quick to Fail / Experimentation Continuous Model Improvement = Value
  • 11. Big Data vs. Big Data Analytics Volume Variety Velocity The More Important V’s: Veracity while delivering Value, and embracing of Volatility. Assuring Confidential to Revolution Analytics 11
  • 12. Typical Challenges Facing Analytical Organizations Big Data • New Data Sources • Data Variety & Velocity • Data Movement, Memory Limits Complex Computation Enterprise Readiness • Innovative Models • Experiments • Many Small Models • Ensemble Methods • Simulation • Many platform choices • Production Support • Deploy to Business Users Confidential to Revolution Analytics Speed & Production Efficiency • Model Life • Many Models • Long Cycle Time • Faster Decisions • Big Hardware Talent • Finding data scientists • Training • Creating an Analytical culture 12
  • 13. Analytical Competitors of Tomorrow Sustainability Analytics Customer / Marketing Analytics Parts Optimization / Pricing HR Analytics Big Data & Big Analytics Kaizen Process Excellence Better Decisions Warranty Analytics More Models More Quickly Predictive Asset Analytics Supply Chain Analytics
  • 14. Tools: Incredible Visualization, Descriptive and Predictive Statistics, and Machine Learning Machine Learning Algorithms in R Confidential to Revolution Analytics 14
  • 15. Stories: The Bad, The Ugly and The Good  The Ugly: Abuse.  The Bad: Missteps and Missed Opportunities.  The Good: Big Analytics Doing Good 15
  • 16. The Ugly: Governmental Overreach Using Big Data WikiLeaks, Edward Snowden, NSA… And now the CBP: Customs and Border Protection are Stopping and Searching Private Flights. Aircraft interceptions & searches after the flights stopped in Colorado [where Pot has been legalized]. Was a law broken? Was an unreasonable search conducted? How were the flights selected? Bigger Question: Was the Data Legally Obtained? 16
  • 17. The Ugly: Commercially - Even LinkedIn! “”When users sign up for LinkedIn they are required to provide an external email address as their username and to setup a new password for their LinkedIn account. LinkedIn uses this information to hack into the user’s external email account and extract email addresses. LinkedIn is able to download these addresses without requesting the password for the external email accounts or obtaining user’ consent.” 17
  • 18. The Bad: Beware How You Use It. 18
  • 19. Stories: Big Analytics Doing Good in the World  The Ugly.  The Bad.  The Good: Big Analytics Doing Good – Kaiser and Vioxx – Google Flu – Medicare and the Big Insurers – Jepessen and Cost Containment in Airline Operations – NYC Building Inspectors Save First Responder Lives – Netflix and My Movie Watching – Identity Resolution & Healthcare Fraud 19
  • 20. The Bad: Becoming Better Sensors – Google Flu 20
  • 21. The Good: Addressing Drug Outcomes & Side Effects Retroactively  Vioxx and Celebrex were both approved medications  Kaiser Permanente Studied Outcomes for 1.4M Members  Vioxx was proven to be linked with increased heart attacks – 27,000 Heart Attacks over 4 years.  Result: Vioxx Pulled from Market. Lives Saved. 21
  • 22. The Good: Center for Medicare 5 Star Program Incents Big Data Analysis To Huge Gains  Improvement Incentives + Business Gains Projected to Equal  CMS Incentives Pay Higher Rates for Programs with Higher Satisfaction Ratings.  Major Insurer Estimates $20B Revenue Improvement for a ½ Star Increase. 22
  • 23. The Good: Making Air Travel More Cost Effective  Jeppesen Tail Assignment  Automated Aircraft Routing and Assignment  Found $10M In First Analysis of One Airline’s Data Optimize Aircraft Assignment:  Fuel Costs  Fuel Consumption  Maintenance Needs  Operational Profile  Passenger Traffic Additional Opportunities:  Predictive Maintenance  Speed vs. Cost Planning  Regulatory Compliance  Maintenance Period Adjustments 23
  • 24. Stories: Big Analytics Doing Good in the World  The Ugly.  The Bad.  The Good: Big Analytics Doing Good – Vioxx, Celebrex in the Court of Kaiser Permanente – Google Flu – Medicare and the Big Insurers – Jepessen and Cost Containment in Airline Operations – NYC Building Inspectors Save First Responder Lives – Netflix and My Movie Watching – Identity Resolution & Healthcare Fraud 24
  • 25. Lessons Big Gets Bigger.  New Data Sets, New Methods, New Audiences  Today: Social Networks and Media, Tomorrow: Internet of Everything No Business Is Immune  Diverse Businesses Are Capitalizing from Big Data Analytics Veracity Demands Vigilance; Volatility Demands Investment  Stale Predictions Put Companies On The Line  Humans Often Represent The Greatest Inertia Regulation Trails Abuses HR Has a Huge Challenge  NSA on FISA Wiretaps: “We Only Collect Metadata”  Talent Pool Governs Outcomes Organizational Change Is Critical  Attraction, Cultivation and Retention of Once-Obscure Talents  Build a Shared Big Data Culture  Adapt Business & IT Practices Accord 25
  • 26. Recommendations  Change Your Culture  Fail Fast; Learn From Failure  Engage a Broader Audience – Identify Profiles of Stakeholders & Adapt To Them – Develop a Career Path For Prediction’s Stakeholders  Treat Predictions as Products; Data Infrastructure As a Prediction Factory  Life’s Too Short… 26
  • 27. Thank you Revolution Analytics is the leading commercial provider of software and support for the popular open source R statistics language. www.revolutionanalytics.com, 1.855.GET.REVO, Twitter: @RevolutionR 27

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. We’re in the midst of a period of disruption where we’re transitioning from the first generation of predictive analytics which was dominated by SAS & SPSS into second generation of predictive analytics where the leader is open source R
  2. In this 2nd Generation, we’re busting through 1st generation barriers. We’re moving into using:massive data setsmachine learningreal-time decision makingMoving from stable models to continually improving models for additional liftMoving to quick-to-fail and experimental design approaches to incorporate learning and new information
  3. In this 2nd Generation, we’re busting through 1st generation barriers. We’re moving into using:massive data setsmachine learningreal-time decision makingMoving from stable models to continually improving models for additional liftMoving to quick-to-fail and experimental design approaches to incorporate learning and new informationAn example: Hyundai – 3 cars with telematics on the road. Already spotted a huge warranty issue – but weren’t prepared to act on the data they already had. Result? Nightmarish shortage of parts.
  4. R has extensive graphics capabilities and can produce stunning 2D and 3D images. It is used by many organisations such as Google, Facebook and media organisations. One of R's strengths is the ease with which well-designed publication-quality plots can be produced, including mathematical symbols and formulae where needed. Great care has been taken over the defaults for the minor design choices in graphics, but the user retains full control. The black example near bottom above the Facebook connections image is the graphical representation of a tree cricket calling song (Oecanthuspellucens
  5. Examples of New Data Sets:Sensor data and mountain climbing analogy. EMC prediction of 300x data growth Not 300% but 30000%Clothing Retailer Use of Video to Pre-Market CustomersWith huge data comes new methods – human-less Machine Learning.No Business Immune: Monsanto, Crop Production and Seed RecommendationNew York Building InspectorsHR: WalMart – 2 years retention max.Gartner Analyst Merv Adrian story about CIO’s Blood Money hiring.Veracity, Vigilance: Model quality must become a continuous process.Humans are often the impediment
  6. Predictions as factory: Call it Center of Excellence, Call it Tiger Team. But build it to last.Factory Analogy:Data = Raw MaterialPredictive Models = The ProductPredictive Analytics = Production Know-HowData Scientists, Business Analysts = Production CapacityModel Lifecycle = Production CapacityModel Accuracy = Product QualityLife’s too short – join the community of business leaders, analysts, or encourage your staff to do so.