Ähnlich wie Global solar radiation forecasting with non lineal statistical techniques and qualitative predictions from spanish national weather service
SPICE MODEL of MTM23223 (Professional+BDP Model) in SPICE PARKTsuyoshi Horigome
Ähnlich wie Global solar radiation forecasting with non lineal statistical techniques and qualitative predictions from spanish national weather service (20)
Solar radiation forecasting with wrf model in the iberian peninsula
Global solar radiation forecasting with non lineal statistical techniques and qualitative predictions from spanish national weather service
1. Global solar radiation forecasting with non-lineal
statistical techniques and qualitative predictions
from Spanish National Weather Service
L. Martín, J. Polo, L.F.Zarzalejo, A. Navarro
Energy department CIEMAT
R. Marchante
Investigaciones y Recursos Solares Avanzados IRSOLAV
(www.irsolav.com)
2. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal)
TIME SERIES GLOBAL SOLAR
RADIATION HALF DAILY PROPERTIES
Global solar irradiance half daily time series :
Non Stationary
Non Gaussian Data Data Preprocessing
Non Linear
Removing stationarity from time series:
Using clearness index.
Using lost component variable.
Subtracting each value mean value of 2d+1 days.
Removing from time series anual armonic (first armonic from
fourier analysis).
2
3. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal)
LOST COMPONENT
PREDICTIONS
6000
5000
4000
Wm-2
3000
2000
1000
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Half Day
3
Differencing day by day
4. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal)
LOST COMPONENT
PREDICTIONS
3000
2000
Diff Lost Component Wm-2
1000
0
-3
-1000 1.5
x 10
1
-2000
N u m b e r o f S am p les 0.5
-3000
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Half Day 0
-4 000 -3000 4
-20 00 -1 000 0 10 00
D iff L ost C om ponent
2000 300 0 4 000
5. LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONS
MADRID RRN AEMet
0.3
0.28
40
0.26
38 0.24 N N /PE R
36 0.22
Im p ro v e m e n t % R M S E
34 0.2
%RMSD
32 0.18
30 0.16
0.14
28
0.12
26
0.1
24 0.08
22 0.06
1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6
Prediction Horizon Half Daily Pre dic tion Horizon
5
6. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal)
AEMet Synoptic Predictions by Site
Total Cloud Cover
ECMWF
HIRLAM/AEMet
PROMETEO
WRF/MM5…. Energy Values
6
7. EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal)
LOST COMPONENT + QUALITATIVE
PREDICTIONS
MADRID RRN AEMet 0 .7
40
0 .6 8 N N (1 0 )/P E R
35
Im p ro v e m e n t % R M S D
30 0 .6 6
25
%RMSD
0 .6 4
20
15
0 .6 2
10
1 2 3 4 5 6
0 .6
Prediction Horizon Half Daily 1 2 3 4 5 6
H o rizo n P re d7 tio n (H a lf D a ily)
ic
Buenas días, mi nombre es Luis Martín y voy a presentar el trabajo realizado hasta la fecha en el ámbito de la predicción de la radiación solar diaria.
The result is a time series nonstationary with a probability density function similar to a delta function. This signal is the random part of solar irradiance and is isolated from the deterministic part of solar irradiance