Preparing for Tomorrow’s World

1
Preparing for Tomorrow’s World: Helping University Information Services
Respond to Technological, Economic and Political Change
• A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conference

Preparing for Tomorrow’s World: Helping University
Information Services Respond to Technological,
Economic and Political Change
A workshop
session facilitated
by Brian Kelly,
Cetis for Library / IT
Services staff at the
University of
Brighton
Slides available
under a Creative
Commons licence
(CC-BY)
2
http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/preparing-for-tomorrows-world/ Session hashtag: #isconf14

About The Facilitator
Brian Kelly:
• Innovation Advocate at Cetis,
University of Bolton, UK since Oct 2013
• Worked at UKOLN, University of Bath
as UK Web Focus for 16+ years
• Web technology adviser to
higher education & cultural heritage
sectors
3
A: Introduction

Workshop Abstract
Which emerging technologies are likely to
enhance working practices and the student
experience and which can we afford to ignore? How
do we distinguish between invention, innovation and
improvement?
Brian will lead discussions on key development areas
and how we can respond to them. You will have the
opportunity to use a methodology, which has been
used by Cetis and UKOLN to ensure that institutions
can gather evidence on new technologies in a
systematic way, identify trends and plan for the
future.
4
Rapid change
at global level
Technologies
may not take
off
Systematic
processes
Institutional
responses to
change
A: Introduction

About You
Your opportunity to summarise your
interests and expectations:
• What made you decide to attend this
session?
• What do you hope to gain from it?
5
A: Introduction

Timetable for ELAG 2014
Time Title
Predicting the Future
14.00 A: Introduction
14.15 B: Predicting the Future: the Need, the Risks, the Approaches
14.30 C: Let’s Predict the Future (group exercise)
15.25 Review
15.30 Finish
We’ve Predicted the Future! So What?
14.00 D: Review and Introduction
14.10 E: Prepare for the Unexpected: Scenario Planning
14.30 F: Making the Case
15.20 G: Conclusions and Reflections
15.30 Finish6
A: Introduction
Day 1
Day 2

Draft Timetable for Today
Time Title
Predicting the Future
11.30 A: Introduction
11.45 B: Predicting the Future: the Need and the Risks
12.00 C: Predicting the Future: a Methodology
12.00 D: Let’s Predict the Future (group exercise)
12.25 Report back
We’ve Predicted the Future! So What?
12.30 E: Prepare for the Unexpected: Scenario Planning
12.40 F: Making the Case
12:55 G: Conclusions and Reflections
13.00 Finish
7
Part 1
Part 2
A: Introduction
Subject to changes!

Your Thoughts
What technical developments might
be important?
8
Tweet your ideas with
event hashtag
I think teleporting could have implications for libraries in the future! #isconf14
58
Feel free to add
implications for users …
Teleporting could have implications for libraries as people won’t be put off from
visiting when it’s raining! #isconf14 22
and implications
for libraries
We would therefore need larger physical spaces for the teleporting visitors to the
library #isconf14 41
Discuss the
implications …
So maybe the books could be teleported. Would we need a physical library
building? #isconf14 48
such as legal issues,
business models, …
What about the legal implication? Border control? Which VAT rate to use?
Importing banned book? … #isconf14 27
A: Introduction

Time of Growth 
1990s & early 2000s
saw:
• Increased funding across
education sector
• Significant developments in
IT sector
• Willingness by senior
managers & funding bodies
to invest in innovative IT
developments (e.g. JISC
development programmes)
9 “Great proposal – we’ll fund it”
Image from Flickr. CC BY-NC-SA licence:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/inlinguamanchester/5036313154/
B: Predicting the Future: the Need and the Risks
The
Need for
Futurists

Time of Growth is Over 
Late 2000s and beyond:
• Decreased funding across
education & public sector
• Acknowledgements that
innovation can provide
growth and cost savings
• Significant developments
continue in IT sector
• Investment in innovative IT
developments need to be
based on evidence of
benefits & likelihood of
success
10
Image from Flickr. CC BY-NC-ND licence:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/drewleavy/339489258//
“You want how much? And no
evidence it will work! You’re crazy!”
The
Need for
Futurists

The Future: A Quick Summary
What technological developments might
have an impact in the future?
For the impatient, here’s a summary!
11
The
Need for
Futurists

In the Future
Data will be Big
12 Image from Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA

In the Future
Content and services will be open
13
Web is Agreement by Paul Downey.
CC BY

In the Future
We will own our services and content
14

In the Future
We will see a growth in use of online services
15

In the Future
16
FinTech Mentor Huy Nguyen Trieu shares his views on
new opportunities in the FinTech space, April 2014
with increased access on mobile devices

In the Future
17
NASA Turns to Online Giant Amazon for Cloud Computing
Services for Mars Rover Curiosity, August 2012
and content and services hosted in the Cloud

In the Future
We will see the importance of developers, IT service
staff, librarians and information professionals
acknowledged
18
Causes, ALA

In the Future
We will see greater investment in libraries
19
£298k investment!
The Library is committed to enhancing
its services and facilities to deliver the
very best library experience for users.
During 2013/14 we are directing
£298k to boost access to core
materials. This sum is in addition to
the millions spent on library resources
across the Colleges.
Enhancing Core Library Collections 2013/14,
University of Exeter, UK

In the Future
We will travel to work by monorail
20

In the Future
We will use jetpacks at weekends
21

When Did You Stop Believing?
At what point did you become sceptical?
22
Big data Growth in onlineOpen sourceOpen content
Value of librarians Greater investment Monorails Jetpacks
The
Need for
Futurists:
the Risks

Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 1
23
You can’t always trust your own vision for the future!
(you’ll be tempted to bring your personal hopes,
expectations or prejudices with you)
The
Need for
Futurists:
the Risks

What Can We Conclude?
Assumptions of:
• Inevitability of technological developments
• Economic growth (we can afford them)
• Political and social environment (no legal or
environmental barriers)
There is a need to:
• Be wary of predictions which:
 Simply justify our organisation’s current
approaches (cf. music industry)
 Reflect personal beliefs
• Base predictions on evidence
• Acknowledge that evidence may challenge
organisational or personal beliefs / prejudices
24
We need a more systematic way of predicting future developments
The
Need for
Futurists:
the Risks

We commission
reports from
experts in the field
25 PDF

We commission
reports from
experts in the field
26
… is an information professional who has specialized in the
fields of electronic information provision for over 20 years.
In recent years, he has specialized in metadata for digital
libraries, in which capacity he is a member of the editorial
board for the METS (Metadata Encoding and Transmission
Standard) standard for digital library metadata.

Tip no. 2
27
You can’t always trust futurists!
(they may bring their sectoral, organisational
or personal prejudices with them)
Caveat:
Their expertise may also be valuable and correct,
but they may miss significant developments
The
Need for
Futurists:
the Risks

JISC Observatory
JISC Observatory:
• JISC-funded initiative
• Systematises processes for anticipating and
responding to projected future trends & scenarios
• Provided by JISC Innovation Support Centres at
Cetis and UKOLN
• Ran from 2011-2013
• See <http://blog.observatory.jisc.ac.uk/>
28
Cessation of core funding for UKOLN and CETIS led to closure of JISC
Observatory on 31 July 2013. Therefore need to ensure sustainability of
ideas and approaches for use by institutions
Methodology
for Predicting
the Future

Tip no. 3
29
Librarians and IT Service staff should carry
out evidence-gathering, sense-making
and synthesis activities for their own
organisation / sector.
C: A Methodology for Predicting the Future
Methodology
for Predicting
the Future

Invention, Innovation, Improvement
1. Invention: The creation of the idea or
method itself.
2. Innovation: The use of a better and, as a
result, novel idea or method.
3. Improvement: Doing current activities
better.
30
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innovation
Methodology
for Predicting
the Future

Tip no. 4
31
You will need primarily to monitor
(a) innovations to support long-term planning and
(b) improvements in order to enhance operational
practices
Methodology
for Predicting
the Future

32
Use of the Delphi Process
The group was presented with a number of key trend statements, as identified by the NMC horizon scan
activities 2013, an example of which was "Openness; concepts like open content, open date and open
resources, along with notions of transparency and easy access to data and information, is becoming a value"
and significant challenges such as "Faculty training still does not acknowledge the fact that digital media
literacy continues to rise in importance as a key skill in every discipline and profession".
Participants were split into smaller groups and posed a series of response questions; Question 1 being "Given
the technology trends and challenges just discussed which technologies do you think will have greatest impact
on Higher Education (Teaching and Learning from the CETIS 13 expert group) over the next twelve months
(near term)?
The expert groups were given ten minutes to discuss the question, collectively agree and provide three
technologies identified. The technologies identified by the expert groups were listed and presented to the whole
group. Each of the smaller working group were given a further five minutes to discuss the other groups
suggestions asked to vote for the suggestions, excluding their own. The scores were collated and the three
technologies emerging with the highest overall group scores were put forward as the three technologies with
potentially greatest impact on teaching and learning in the near term.
The process was then repeated for the medium (2-3 years) and long term (3-5 years) questions. In an hour the
expert group were able to produce a list of technologies that they considered would have impact on higher
Education in the short, medium and long term the results of which were then compared with the NMC Horizon
scan findings and other group findings for further discussion and debate. The value of such a process is two-
fold; firstly the finding and outputs and secondly as a process by which to instigate discussion and debate
around technologies amongst experts.
From “Reflecting on Yesterday, Understanding Today, Planning for Tomorrow”, Kelly & Hollins, Umbrella 2013

NMC Horizon Reports
NMC Horizon Reports:
http://www.nmc.org/
33

NMC Horizon Report:
HE Edition 2013
NMC Horizon report: Higher
Education, 2013
34
PDF

NMC Horizon Report: Library Edition 2014
NMC Horizon Report: Library
Edition 2014
35

JISC Observatory
JISC Observatory processes
36

Scanning Exercise
Hands up if you have:
Used a mobile device for work-related
purposes in bed (yes, no, rarely)
37
“20% of the iPad users spent time with their iPad in bed” 2010
Informal
survey, March
2012
“The future is already
here - it's just not very
evenly distributed”
What are the implications
of this new ‘platform’?
Methodology
for Predicting
the Future

Significant Trends: Social Media
Survey in Aug 2012 of institutional use of Facebook across the
24 Russell Group universities found >1M ‘Likes’ followers
38

Significant Trends: Social Media
Survey in Aug 2012 of institutional use of Facebook across the
24 Russell Group universities found >1M ‘Likes’ followers
39

Behind The Data
Trends in Fb ‘Likes’ for Russell
Group Unis since Jan 2011 show
steady increase
40
Jan 11 Sep 11 May 12 Jul 12
But note increase in Jul 2012 due to
addition of 4 new universities!
But might trends hide a more
complex story:
• Usage & growth dominated by
one significant player.
• More modest usage generally

Lis, Damned Lies and
Graphs
“#Blekko traffic goes through the roof –
for good reason. Try it out!”
Based on blog post entitled “Blekko’s
Traffic Is Up Almost 400 Percent; Here
Are The CEO’s Five Reasons Why”
(includes dissatisfaction with Google)
41
Is Blekko’s Traffic Really Going Through The Roof? Will It Challenge Google?,
UK Web Focus blog, 18 April 2012
Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics!

Tip no. 5
42
Data can provide insights and indicate
trends – but needs to be interpretted
carefully

Open Sense-making
Seek feedback on:
• Evidence-gathering
methodology e.g.
flaws in ‘paradata’
• Implications of
findings
• Interventions
needed in light of
findings
43
“All bugs are visible
to many eyes”

Open Sense-making
Importance of open approaches to
interpretation of signals:
• Evidence-gathering methodologies may have
flaws
• Incorrect or inappropriate implications may be
made
• This may lead to wrong decisions being
made
44
Open sense-making approaches may be difficult:
• Your marketing department may wish a consistent,
positive message to be made.
• The facts may contradict your personal beliefs
Methodology
for Predicting
the Future

Tip no. 6
45
Once you’ve gathered evidence you should
encourage open feedback on:
• Validity of evidence-gathering methodologies
• Interpretation of findings
• Implications

What Do You Think Will Be
Important?
What four technologies / technology-related
areas do you feel will be important in your
area of work?
• In the short-term (in the current year)?
• In the medium term (two – three years)?
• In the longer term (four – five years)?
46
“The future is already here - it's just not very evenly distributed” –
you (collectively) can help identify future trends
D: Let’s Predict the Future
You Should
Predict the
Future!

What Do You Think Will Be
Important?
Collating The Responses
Important in the short-term (you should roll it out by
this time next year):
47
Area 1 Area 2 Area 3 Area 4
Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
Group 4
Group 5
D: Let’s Predict the Future
No time for the voting and
discussion processes to
prioritise areas!
You Should
Predict the
Future!

Tip no. 7
48
Explore the potential of using the Delphi
methodology to help identification of future
developments of importance to your
organisation

Scenario Planning
Scenario planning is:
• A strategic planning method that some organisations
use to make flexible long-term plans.
• An adaptation and generalization of classic methods
used by military intelligence.
Processes:
• Step 1 - decide assumptions/drivers for change
• Step 2 - bring drivers together into a viable
framework
• Step 3 - produce initial mini-scenarios
• Step 4 - reduce to two or three scenarios
• Step 5 - write the scenarios
• Step 6 - identify issues arising49
From http://en.wikipedia.org/
wiki/Scenario_planning
E: Scenario Planning
Prepare for
the
unexpected!

Scenario Planning
NMC Horizon work makes use of scenarios in
defining “Significant Challenges Impeding Ed Tech
Adoption in Academic and Research Libraries”:
• Solvable Challenges: Those which we both
understand and know how to solve (e.g.
Rethinking the Roles and Skills of Librarians)
• Difficult Challenges: Those we understand but
for which solutions are elusive (e.g.
Establishing the Value of Libraries)
• Wicked Challenges: Those that are complex to
even define, much less address (e.g.
Embracing the Need for Radical Change)
50
Prepare for
the
unexpected!

Scenarios
Possible scenarios
for the Cloud
environment
51
Commercialisation Devolved ownership
Everyone’s a
librarian The niche librarian
Everyone’s an IT
expert
Prepare for
the
unexpected!

Tip no. 8
52
Scenario planning, covering both
technological and societal developments,
can be useful in planning for future
developments

Important to You – But What Are
The Next Steps?
You have identified technologies /
technology-related areas which you feel will
be important in your area of work.
Next steps:
• Identify the implications of the
technologies
• Assess the associated risks
• Make a case to senior management for
further related work
53
F: Making the Case
You’ve
predicted
the future –
now you
need to
make a
case for
further work

A Planning Template (1)
From the Hyperlinked Library MOOC
Planning template used in assignment 2:
• Goals/Objectives for the technology
– Action Brief Statement:
Convince ______ that by _______ they will ________
which will ________ because _______.
• Mission, Guidelines & Policy
• Funding considerations
• Evaluation
• …
54 Acknowledgements to Michael Stephens and Kyle Jones
F: Making the Case
You’ve
predicted
the future –
now you
need to
make a
case for
further work

A Planning Template (2)
The Need to Explicitly Address Risks
From “Risks and Opportunities Framework for
Exploiting the Social Web” by Kelly & Oppenheim:
• Summarise risks
• Summary risks of not adopting
technology
• Summarise strategies for minimising
(or accepting) risks
• Evidence base
• Document biases and prejudices
55
Can you innovate without taking risks?
F: Making the Case
You’ve
predicted
the future –
now you
need to
make a
case for
further work

Group Exercise
You have an opportunity make a case to a
senior management need which has funding
to explore innovative technologies.
In your groups:
• Select one of the technologies identified
previously
• Prepare a case for funding based on templates
• Address a challenging scenario
• Give a presentation of < 5 minutes
Note only one submission can be funded!
56
Example of use of this methodology available on post on “Assignment 2:
Emerging Technology Planning” on Hyperlinked Library MOOC
F: Making the Case
You’ve
predicted
the future –
now you
need to
make a
case for
further work

Warning From The Past
Tim Berners-Lee didn’t
let evidence of the
popularity of Gopher
hinder development of
the Web
57
G: Conclusions

Tip no. 9
The Serenity Prayer
58 The Serenity Prayer
G: Conclusions

NMC Horizon Report: HE Edition
2013
NMC Horizon report: Higher
Education, 2013
59
PDF
G: Conclusions

Tip no. 10
60
Read the NMC and related reports (but
discuss their relevance in your own
context)
G: Conclusions

61
To conclude:
1. Beware of predictions which reflect personal / sectoral beliefs
2. You can’t always trust futurologists!
3. Carry out your own future planning work
4. Monitor innovations and improvements
5. Data can provide insights & indicate trends
6. Gather open feedback in order to help spot errors in
interpretation of your findings
7. Delphi methodology may be useful in annual future-planning
8. Scenario planning may help in preparing for the unexpected
9. Don’t forget the Serenity Report!
10. Read the NMC and related reports
Conclusions

Preparing for Tomorrow’s World

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