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235 A.C.
 
 
Hellenism - After Alexander The centuries after Alexander's death are known as the era of Hellenism. One might argue Hellenism lasted from the years of Alexander's reign until 146 BC, when Greece was annexed by the Roman empire; or even until 30 BC, when the famous Greek-Egyptian Queen Cleopatra died, the last Hellenistic ruler. In any case, Hellenism was the new world order shaped by Alexander's conquests. Trade The campaigns of Alexander had opened up gigantic areas to world trade and economic development. The conquering Greeks had aroused the sleeping masses of the east and profitable industries and agricultural enterprises sprung up everywhere. Because Alexander had started to mint the gold reserves of the Persian kings, huge amounts of money came into circulation. For centuries the Persian dynasts had safeguarded the treasures stored in their palaces. Alexander tried to spend them all within a matter of years. These factors combined, Hellenism can be seen as the world's first major economic boom. The system of economics and trade that developed after Alexander's death would remain basically unchanged for over two thousand years, until the industrial revolution of the 19th century. When the Romans began to expand their empire around 200 BC they inherited a world of florishing trade contacts for which Alexander had laid the foundations. http://www.pothos.co.uk/alexander.asp?ParaID=67
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The Pillars of Rationality
The Rationality Paradigm ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What? Artificial Intelligence AND Economics?!? Never mind…  These people are crazy.
Pillars of rationality Management Science Economics Artificial  Intelligence Search Symbols Enumeration Logic Expected Utility Transitive ordering of alternatives Invariance Continuity Maximizing & satisficing Game theory Mathematical  programming Equilibrium Inference  reasoning
Historical Momentum
2 nd  World War ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
2 nd  world war ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Scientists usually fall for the attractor of “rigorous scientific results”
Economics Artificial   Intelligence Management Science Pillars of rationality Search Symbols Enumeration Logic Expected Utility Transitive ordering of alternatives Invariance Continuity Maximizing & satisficing Game theory Mathematical  programming Equilibrium Inference  reasoning
Symbols, logic, and search
Logic ,[object Object],[object Object]
Bongard problems
 
 
 
 
RF4 project ,[object Object],TRIANGLE (coordinates, line_width, … remaining properties) LINE_SEGMENT (coordinates, … remaining properties)   ?
RF4: Symbols, logic, and search
[object Object],[object Object],Symbol
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Logical statement
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The structure of management science
Management Science ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Knapsack problem of a truck driver ? Capacity: 10 meters 9 meters, $111/m 3 meters, $100/m 5 meters, $100/m 2 meters, $100/m
Mystery #1   How many possibilities for a 100 item knapsack problem? Be the mind!
Chess ,[object Object]
The Rabaul-Lae Convoy (1943)
 
The Rabaul-Lae convoy (1943)
The complexity of the chess game ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bounded rationality ,[object Object],[object Object]
Expected Utility Theory
Legal Disclaimer: This talk will not teach you how to predict the stock market or get rich quick.
What is a stock? Owning stock in a company indicates ownership of the assets and the future earnings of that company. A company’s stock is divided into many small pieces called shares.
Example:  Microsoft (MSFT) The total market value of Microsoft’s assets and potential future earnings is about $272,000,000,000. (2003) There are about 11,000,000,000 shares of Microsoft stock available to buy. Therefore, the price of one share is about $25. (By the way, Bill Gates owns more than  a billion shares of Microsoft stock!)
Bulls
Price of one share of Microsoft  Jan 1996 to Dec 1999
Bears
Price of one share of Microsoft Jan 2000 to Nov 2003
The trade ,[object Object],[object Object]
St. Petersburg Paradox ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Mystery #2   How much should we pay to enter the St. Petersburg paradox?  Be the mind!
Remember the law of large numbers! ,[object Object]
St. Petersburg Paradox (cont) ,[object Object]
If you could some how measure happiness, the average person would likely be much happier to win $1,000 than $1.  On the other hand, that same person would probably be equally happy to win $1,001,000 and $1,000,000.  That is, happiness generally does not increase linearly with wealth.
 
Some Premises of EUT ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Transitive ordering of alternatives ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Dominance ,[object Object],[object Object]
Continuity ,[object Object]
Invariance ,[object Object],[object Object]
Economics Artificial  Intelligence Management Science Pillars of rationality Search Symbols Enumeration Logic Expected Utility Transitive ordering of alternatives Invariance Continuity Maximizing & satisficing Game theory Mathematical  programming Equilibrium Inference  reasoning
 
Thomas Schelling ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
1 Trident  Submarine  (10) 24 Megatons 1 Poseidon  Submarine  (41) 9 Megatons 2 a  World War (3 Megatons) Planet Earth, 1981: 18,000 MEGATONS

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Class 2

  • 1. β employee of the month
  • 3.  
  • 4.  
  • 5. Hellenism - After Alexander The centuries after Alexander's death are known as the era of Hellenism. One might argue Hellenism lasted from the years of Alexander's reign until 146 BC, when Greece was annexed by the Roman empire; or even until 30 BC, when the famous Greek-Egyptian Queen Cleopatra died, the last Hellenistic ruler. In any case, Hellenism was the new world order shaped by Alexander's conquests. Trade The campaigns of Alexander had opened up gigantic areas to world trade and economic development. The conquering Greeks had aroused the sleeping masses of the east and profitable industries and agricultural enterprises sprung up everywhere. Because Alexander had started to mint the gold reserves of the Persian kings, huge amounts of money came into circulation. For centuries the Persian dynasts had safeguarded the treasures stored in their palaces. Alexander tried to spend them all within a matter of years. These factors combined, Hellenism can be seen as the world's first major economic boom. The system of economics and trade that developed after Alexander's death would remain basically unchanged for over two thousand years, until the industrial revolution of the 19th century. When the Romans began to expand their empire around 200 BC they inherited a world of florishing trade contacts for which Alexander had laid the foundations. http://www.pothos.co.uk/alexander.asp?ParaID=67
  • 6.  
  • 7.  
  • 8.  
  • 9.  
  • 10.  
  • 11.  
  • 12.  
  • 13. The Pillars of Rationality
  • 14.
  • 15. What? Artificial Intelligence AND Economics?!? Never mind… These people are crazy.
  • 16. Pillars of rationality Management Science Economics Artificial Intelligence Search Symbols Enumeration Logic Expected Utility Transitive ordering of alternatives Invariance Continuity Maximizing & satisficing Game theory Mathematical programming Equilibrium Inference reasoning
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. Scientists usually fall for the attractor of “rigorous scientific results”
  • 21. Economics Artificial Intelligence Management Science Pillars of rationality Search Symbols Enumeration Logic Expected Utility Transitive ordering of alternatives Invariance Continuity Maximizing & satisficing Game theory Mathematical programming Equilibrium Inference reasoning
  • 23.
  • 25.  
  • 26.  
  • 27.  
  • 28.  
  • 29.
  • 30. RF4: Symbols, logic, and search
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35. The structure of management science
  • 36.
  • 37.  
  • 38.
  • 39. Knapsack problem of a truck driver ? Capacity: 10 meters 9 meters, $111/m 3 meters, $100/m 5 meters, $100/m 2 meters, $100/m
  • 40. Mystery #1 How many possibilities for a 100 item knapsack problem? Be the mind!
  • 41.
  • 43.  
  • 45.
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 49. Legal Disclaimer: This talk will not teach you how to predict the stock market or get rich quick.
  • 50. What is a stock? Owning stock in a company indicates ownership of the assets and the future earnings of that company. A company’s stock is divided into many small pieces called shares.
  • 51. Example: Microsoft (MSFT) The total market value of Microsoft’s assets and potential future earnings is about $272,000,000,000. (2003) There are about 11,000,000,000 shares of Microsoft stock available to buy. Therefore, the price of one share is about $25. (By the way, Bill Gates owns more than a billion shares of Microsoft stock!)
  • 52. Bulls
  • 53. Price of one share of Microsoft Jan 1996 to Dec 1999
  • 54. Bears
  • 55. Price of one share of Microsoft Jan 2000 to Nov 2003
  • 56.
  • 57.
  • 58. Mystery #2 How much should we pay to enter the St. Petersburg paradox? Be the mind!
  • 59.
  • 60.
  • 61. If you could some how measure happiness, the average person would likely be much happier to win $1,000 than $1. On the other hand, that same person would probably be equally happy to win $1,001,000 and $1,000,000. That is, happiness generally does not increase linearly with wealth.
  • 62.  
  • 63.
  • 64.
  • 65.
  • 66.
  • 67.
  • 68. Economics Artificial Intelligence Management Science Pillars of rationality Search Symbols Enumeration Logic Expected Utility Transitive ordering of alternatives Invariance Continuity Maximizing & satisficing Game theory Mathematical programming Equilibrium Inference reasoning
  • 69.  
  • 70.
  • 71.
  • 72.
  • 73.
  • 74.
  • 75. 1 Trident Submarine (10) 24 Megatons 1 Poseidon Submarine (41) 9 Megatons 2 a World War (3 Megatons) Planet Earth, 1981: 18,000 MEGATONS