Because of the risk-return tradeoff, you must be aware of your personal risk tolerance when choosing investments for your portfolio. Taking on some risk is the price of achieving returns; therefore, if you want to make money, you can't cut out all risk. The goal instead is to find an appropriate balance - one that generates some profit, but still allows you to sleep at night.
2. Rates of Return
A key measure of investors’ success is the
rate at which their funds have grown
Holding-period return (HPR) of shares is
composed of capital gain and dividend
RH = (C)+ (PE-PB) /PB
This definition assumes end of period returns
and ignores re-investment of income
3. Return Relative It is a different way to
calculate return. This method is used when a
cumulative wealth index or a geometric mean
has to be calculated.
Return Relative (RR)= C+PE/PB
Rates of Return
4. Rates of Return
Dividend Yield = Percentage return from
dividends i.e. (D/PB)x100
To calculate HPR over a period of time, we
can use:
Arithmetic average
Geometric average
Dollar weighted return
5. Arithmetic Average
It is the sum of periodic return divided by number of
periods
Arithmetic Average = 15/3 = 5%
Period 1 10%
Period 2 25%
Period 3 -20%
Sum 15%
6. Geometric Average
nth root of the product of returns for n years
Geometric mean = (1+R1)x(1+R2)x(1+R3)1/n
– 1
= [(1+10%) x (1+ 25%) x(1+(-20%))] 1/3
– 1
[(1.1) x (1.25) x (.8)] 1/3
– 1
(1.1) 1/3
– 1
1.03-1
.03 or 3%
7. Problem with Arithmetic
average
Suppose the following:
Calculating arithmetic mean gives false value of 25% return =
(100%-50%)/2
And geometric = (1+1)x(1-.5)1/2
- 1
=1-1 = 0%
Year Begin
value
Ending
value
HPR
2007 50 100 100%
2008 100 50 -50%
8. Geometric Vs Arithmetic
In highly volatile security prices, arithmetic
mean is biased upward and we should use
geometric mean
If rates of returns are the same for all years,
geometric and arithmetic averages gives
same results
9. Taking a Global
When investors buy or sell securities in other
countries, they also take exchange rate risk
or currency risk
Fluctuation in currency value can be either a
source of loss or profit
If the foreign currency strengthens, your
returns will increase or vice versa
10. An Example
Suppose you purchased 100 shares of IBM at NYSE for
$300 each. The dollar-rupee parity was 60 rupees a
dollar at the that time. So your total investment in rupees
was 100x$300 = $30000 x 60 =Rs.1800,000
At the end of the year, IBM share price was $310, giving
you $10 profit per share, your profit is = 100 x 10 =
$1000x60 = Rs.60000
But the dollar-rupee parity had jumped to 78 rupee a
dollar, now your total investment is =100x310 = $31000
x 78 = Rs.2418000
And your profit is 2,418,000-180,0000 = Rs.618,000
Or in percentage = 618,000/1800,000 = .343 or 34%
11. Equation for calculating
returns from foregin stocks
= [(P1/Po)x(C1/Co)] – 1
[(310/300)x(78/60)] – 1
[(1.03) x (1.3)] – 1
1.339 – 1
0.339 or 34%
P1 = Ending share price
Po = Beginning share price
C1 = Ending value of domestic currency
Co = Beginning value of domestic currency
12. Risk
Any investment involves some degree of
uncertainty about future returns
Risk arises out of variability in returns
If an asset has no variability in returns, the
assets is considered to be risk free like one
year T-bills
13. Type of Risk
Systematic Risk (Not diversifiable)
Market Risk
Interest Rate Risk
Purchasing Power Risk
Unsystematic Risks (Diversifiable)
Business Risk
Financial risk
14. Sources of Risk
Market risk : variability in returns due to
fluctuations in aggregate market
Recession, wars etc
Interest Rate Risk
Interest risk refers to variability of total returns,
particularly on fixed income securities due fluctuation in
Interest rates.
Purchas Power or Inflation risk
when purchasing power declines.
Inflation also leads to hike in interest rates because
lenders demand more to compensate themselves for
loss in purchasing power
15. Exchange risk = for international investors,
a source of risk come from exchange rate
fluctuation
Country Risk = For international investors,
economic and political stability, law and order
situation are important consideration in the
investment decision
Sources of Risk
16. Interest rates and returns
1. Increase in interest rates increases the
required rate of return
RRR= Rf + Risk premium which reduces the
prices of the securities (intrinsic value)
2. It increases cost of borrowing and hence cost
of capital
3. It reduces money supply which lower demand
for securities and resultantly prices fall.
RRR
Cashflow
alueIntrinsicV
+
=
1
17. Measuring Risk
The most commonly used measure of risk
for securities is standard deviation
SD measure the total risk of a security or a
portfolio
It measure deviations of each observation
from the arithmetic mean
1
]R-[R
1
2
_
i
−
=
∑=
n
n
i
σ
Measuring Risk
19. Interpretation
The 5.89 SD means that the security return
can fluctuate between +/-5.89 from the mean
value of 16%
More specifically, the return can fluctuate
between 16 - 5.89 = 10.11 or 16 + 5.89 =
21.89
Your return could fall to as low as
10.11% or could rise to 21.89 %
20. Realized Returns and risk
from Investing
Class of assets Average SD
S&P 500 Composite 9.21% 19.75%
S&P Industrial 9.66 21.57
S&P Utility 8.47 20.54
Small Cap Stock (S&P 600) 14.82 37.23
AAA 20-year Corp Bond 3.87 10.05
US 15-year Bond 3.25 10.22
T-Bills 1.569 4.65