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Pathways to Postsecondary
Completion:
How Are Philadelphia Students Faring?
October 2011
Table of Contents

1. Introduction ..............................................................................................................2
    About this Report .....................................................................................................3
2. Data Findings ...........................................................................................................6
3. Preliminary Recommendations ............................................................................. 19
    Moving Forward: Policy Recommendations .......................................................... 19
    Moving Forward: Recommendations for Future Data Collection ......................... 20
    Questions for Further Reflection ........................................................................... 22
    Closing Thoughts .................................................................................................. 23
1.	Introduction	
 “In order to be a truly great city, in order to be a true world-class city, in
order to be a city of hope and opportunity, the new Philadelphia must be
‘The Education City.’” -Mayor Michael Nutter

Since his inauguration, increasing college completion rates among Philadelphians has
been an educational and economic development priority for Mayor Nutter and his
administration. This agenda has drawn national recognition to Philadelphia as a city that
is working across community stakeholders to improve college access at a time when the
national focus on college completion is increasing.

Many policymakers, funders, and local advocates recognize the importance of raising the
education level of the American populace if the United States is to compete effectively in
the global marketplace. The Obama administration and national foundations like the Bill
and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Lumina Foundation for Education have set forth
public goals for increasing the number of Americans with college degrees, and even in
these difficult economic times, they have made substantive investments in college
completion.

Reaching the broad and ambitious goals of the college completion movement requires
finding a way to ground and focus conversations at the level of serving students. Across
communities, data use has emerged as a key method of achieving this objective. Efforts
like Complete College America are helping states to delve more deeply into their
educational data, develop a clearer understanding of students’ college completion
patterns, and ultimately identify strategies that can help localities, states, and the nation
achieve stronger educational and occupational outcomes for young adults.

Mayor Nutter, upon taking office, formed the Philadelphia Council for College and
Career Success, a group with a vision to ensure that all Philadelphia youth are prepared
for educational and economic success. The Council includes a range of leaders from the
School District of Philadelphia, Philadelphia’s multiple colleges and universities,
influential business organizations, research organizations, and members of the nonprofit
provider community. The Council’s leadership team is comprised of three committees:
Project U-Turn, which focuses on high school dropouts; WorkReady, which focuses on
connecting education and employment; and CollegeReady, which is devoted to
increasing college access and success. CollegeReady has been instrumental as the
steward of the local college completion agenda, pushing data collection to the forefront in
its efforts to support that agenda. These partners have employed the use of data to
activate conversations about Philadelphia students’ college completion patterns and to
create a stronger sense of accountability across all Council partners and in the
community. Nationally about 20% of ninth graders graduate high school on time and go




                                                                                    2|Page
on to graduate college within six years. Philadelphia’s college completion rate is about
half of that, creating even greater urgency within an already pressing issue.1

About this Report
Most recently, a subcommittee of CollegeReady, the Data Workteam, spearheaded the
development of a comprehensive set of common college metrics and a tool for collecting
these data across colleges serving Philadelphia’s high school students. Twenty colleges
submitted a first round of data in the summer of 2011 using this tool. This report offers
data analyses from this data collection effort and seeks to provide answers to three critical
questions:

1. What are the college access and success patterns of Philadelphia students, including
   not only those who graduated from public (including charter) high schools but also
   from private and Archdiocese high schools, once they enter college?
2. What are the specific points of progress and challenge for students from Philadelphia
   high schools as they move from the application process through developmental
   education coursework and toward graduation?
3. How do patterns for students from Philadelphia high schools compare to students
   from non-Philadelphia high schools?

Section 2 of this report provides an overview of our Data Findings, which OMG
developed in partnership with the CollegeReady Data Workteam’s senior leadership. We
used the Loss-Momentum Framework2 developed by the Bill and Melinda Gates
Foundation to organize these findings and explore the success and loss patterns of
students from Philadelphia high schools across four key junctures in their college
experience:

                Connection: This reflects students’ success in the college admissions process
                and includes the following indicators: number of applications, number of
                acceptances, and number of students who enrolled.

                Entry: This reflects students’ placement and outcomes in developmental
                education coursework and includes the following indicators: number of
                students who took developmental education courses in English and math and
                those who passed developmental education courses in English and math.


1
  To date, data use in Philadelphia has focused primarily on analyses of National Student Clearinghouse data provided by the School
District of Philadelphia and also through research conducted by the OMG Center, supported by the John S. and James L. Knight
Foundation. The full OMG report, College Access and Success in Philadelphia: College Enrollment Activity can be found online at:
https://knight.box.net/shared/lv3eiqg542.
2
  The Loss-Momentum Framework was designed by the Completion by Design Assistance Team at the Bill and Melinda Gates
Foundation. The Completion by Design initiative is a five-year investment by the Foundation to enable groups of community college
campuses in several states to collaborate on the design and implementation of a model pathway to completion. For the full framework,
see the Technical Appendix.

                                                                                                                      3|Page
Progress: This reflects students’ movement through credit-bearing
           coursework and includes the following indicators: number of students who
           completed their first and second semesters, those who completed their second
           year, and those who were in good academic standing and/or on track to
           graduate after two years.

           Completion: This reflects students’ graduation from college and includes the
           following indicators: the number of students graduating in four years or in six
           years.

In the final section of this report we present some Preliminary Recommendations and
offer some ideas about how to move forward with policy and data activities. In addition,
we pose a series of questions to further the conversation around these data so that the
Council and the community can continue to generate ideas about what these data mean
for policy and data collection moving forward.

Throughout the report, we include a series of Technical Notes with information about the
data in this report, highlighting how we conducted our analyses, as well as some of the
challenges and limitations to data interpretation.




                                                                                4|Page
Introductory Technical Notes
The Mayor's Office of Education requested data from 30 local and
statewide colleges and universities for this study, including public and
private, as well as two-year and four-year institutions, and received
analyzable data from 20 diverse institutions.

These participating institutions submitted information about seven
freshman cohorts entering college between 2003 and 2009, tracking their
progress from the application process through graduation to the extent
possible. The 2003 cohorts across the colleges, for example, offer
longitudinal data from first-year students' application submissions to six-
year completion rates. In addition, colleges provided disaggregated
information across these indicators specifically for students from
individual Philadelphia high schools.

Given that not all colleges provided data for all indicators, this report does
not always present data for the same cohort (i.e., the same groups of
colleges and universities) from connection through completion. In order to
maximize the data, we made decisions about what institutions to include in
our analysis on the basis of which ones had complete data in any one of
the four Loss-Momentum areas: connection, entry, progress, or
completion. In other words, the groups of colleges and universities
included in analyses may be different across each phase. It is always noted
throughout the report which institutions are included in any given analysis.

Because the data were provided in the aggregate, individual-level progress,
such as success in one step of the pathway in relation to a previous step,
could not be assessed.

The primary focus of this report is the postsecondary success of
Philadelphia high school graduates. Thus, we present data on most
indicators for the cohort of students coming from Philadelphia high schools
only. Many colleges provided comparable data on students entering from
non-Philadelphia high schools as well, and we use those data to present
some comparative findings of students coming from Philadelphia versus
non-Philadelphia high schools.

Community colleges represent a unique postsecondary experience and, as
such, the data from the community college in our study (Community
College of Philadelphia) were analyzed separately.

For a complete list of participating colleges and universities, a full
overview of the metrics collected and their definitions, and a description
of the student population, see the Technical Appendix.


                                                                           5|Page
2.	Data	Findings	
The key findings of our analysis are the following:

       The number of college applications is rising faster than acceptance and
 1     enrollment figures.

       Developmental education course requirements are high for Philadelphia
 2     students entering college, especially at the community college.

       Getting through the first semester and the first year of college are not the
 3     only critical retention points for students; students may also be losing ground
       even after completing their second year.

       Academic challenges may explain only a portion of the loss of Philadelphia
 4     students from college.

       Many Philadelphia students are taking more than four years to complete
 5     college.

       Colleges of different selectivity (e.g., very competitive, competitive, non-
 6     competitive) tend to enroll Philadelphia students from certain high school
       types (e.g., special admissions, parochial, and neighborhood).

       Differences exist between the college success patterns of students from
 7     Philadelphia versus non-Philadelphia high schools.

Each of these findings is described in more detail below. In addition, we highlight some
questions for further reflection based on preliminary conversations with local
postsecondary leaders and some of the research-based strategies included in the Loss-
Momentum Framework introduced earlier.




                                                                               6|Page
The number of college applications is rising faster than
 1       acceptance and enrollment figures.
The number of applications to colleges increased between 2003 and 2009, but the
degree to which this led to an increase in acceptances and enrollments was more
moderate. Over the six-year period, the number of college applications from
Philadelphia high school students steadily increased. The large increase in applications,
however, did not produce a significant corresponding increase in acceptances or
enrollment. Figure 1 shows that from 2003-2009, college applications increased by 61%
(an additional 6,752 applications), acceptances increased by 22% (an additional 1,394
acceptances), and there was a 15% increase in enrollments (an additional 307 students).

          Figure 1: Total number of applications, acceptances, and enrollments from 2003 to 2009 among 2003 through
          2009 first-fall entering student cohorts from Philadelphia high schools

20000
18000                                                                                                            17899
                                                                                                  17009
16000
                                                                  14949           15427
14000
                                                   13378
                                   12644
12000
                   11147
10000
 8000                                                                                                            7774
                                   6930                                                           7220
 6000              6380                            6469           6347            6522

 4000
 2000              2015            2149            2253           2105            2195            2189           2322
                                                   1129           1266            1296            1173           1148
     0
             2003            2004            2005            2006            2007            2008             2009
                 Applications              Acceptances               Enrollments               CCP Enrollments

           Note: No application or acceptance data are from CCP because CCP has non-competitive enrollment.




                                                                                                              7|Page
In other words, for every 20 additional applications submitted, there were approximately
four additional acceptances and one additional enrollment (Figure 2).


 Figure 2: Change from 2003 to 2009 in applications, acceptances, and
 enrollments among 2003 through 2009 first-fall entering student cohorts from
 Philadelphia high schools




  For every 20
  additional
  applications
  from
  Philadelphia                There were
  high school                 approximately                  and
  students from               4 additional                   1 additional
  2003 to 2009,               acceptances,                   enrollment.


   Note: Rates were calculated by dividing the number of increased applications and
   acceptances by the number of increased enrollments.




Questions for Further Reflection:
1. What is driving the increase in applications: more students applying or more
   applications per students?

2. Why hasn’t the increase in college applications led to a greater rise in acceptances and
   subsequent enrollments?




                                                                                      8|Page
2       Developmental education course requirements are high for
         Philadelphia students entering college, especially at the
         community college.

Over 23% of Philadelphia students entering four-year institution were placed or
enrolled in remedial course work in math and/or English. Placement and enrollment of
students from Philadelphia high schools in developmental education math and English
courses remained steady from 2006-2009, with about one-third of students from
Philadelphia high schools requiring English remediation and about one-fourth requiring
math remediation (Figure 3).

     Figure 3: Placement/enrollment rates in math and English developmental education courses at select four-
     year colleges* among 2006 to 2009 first-fall entering student cohorts from Philadelphia high schools


           100%
            90%
            80%
            70%
            60%
            50%
            40%
                                  33%                     33%                    32%                    35%
            30%
                                  23%                     24%                    24%
            20%                                                                                         18%
            10%
              0%
                            2006                    2007                   2008                    2009
                                              % placed  in 
                                            % took English              % took mathin 
                                                                          % placed 
                                                English                      Math

           *Colleges represented in developmental education analyses:
           Math: Bloomsburg, Chestnut Hill, Holy Family, Indiana, Lock Haven, Millersville, Shippensburg, Slippery Rock, Temple
           English: Bloomsburg, Chestnut Hill, Holy Family, Millersville, Moore, Shippensburg, Temple, UArts
           Note: Developmental education course data prior to 2006 were unavailable.




                                                                                                                 9|Page
At CCP, an even higher percentage of students enrolled in developmental education
coursework; more than half of entering students enrolled in English and/or math
developmental education courses. Between 2006 and 2009, on average, 83% of students
entering CCP from Philadelphia high schools required developmental education courses
for English and 63% for math (Figure 4). Developmental education enrollment at CCP
was over 40 percentage points higher than at the four-year colleges.

      Figure 4: Placement/Enrollment rates in math and English developmental education courses at CCP
      among 2006 to 2009 first-fall entering cohorts from Philadelphia high schools




                                  % placed  in              % placed  in 
                                    English                    Math 

Across four-year institutions and CCP, developmental education enrollment rates were
higher for English than for math. In addition to enrolling more often in English than math
courses, students were more likely to pass English courses. Students passed English
courses on average 91% of the time versus 76% of the time for math at four-year
colleges; at CCP, students passed English courses on average 45% of the time versus
41% of the time for math.

Questions for Further Reflection:
1. What are some of the differences among students enrolling in four- and two-year
   institutions that might be driving higher developmental education course rates at CCP?

2. What is driving higher developmental education enrollment and pass rates in English
   versus math and what are the policy implications at both the K-12 and college levels?

3. How does placement and success in developmental education courses impact students’
   performance in introductory college-level coursework and their prospects for
   completing college?




                                                                                                   10 | P a g e
3       Getting through the first semester and the first year of
             college are not the only critical retention points for students;
             students may also be losing ground even after completing
             their second year.

   Students are equally likely to be off the pathway to six-year completion after their
   second year of college as before their second year of college. Twenty-three percent of
   students left college before completing their second year; however, an additional 25% of
   students failed to complete college after six years (Figure 5).

 Figure 5: Proportion of first-fall students from Philadelphia high schools who matriculated into select colleges* in 2003 and
 persisted and met graduation milestones from first semester through to four- and six-year graduation


      completed at least 1 course credit in first                                                                                   23 
                                                                                                                       99%          percentage 
                     semester
                                                                                                                                    point drop 
retained fall 1 to fall 2 (i.e., returned for a 2nd                                                                                 from entry 
                                                                                                               83%
                spring semester)                                                                                                    to end of 
      completed fall 1 through spring 2 (i.e.,                                                                                      second 
                                                                                                           77%                      year
     completed first 4 consecutive semesters)

     in good standing fall 1 through spring 2**                                                       70%                           25 
                                                                                                                                    percentage 
on track to graduate fall 1 through spring 2***                                  35%                                                point drop 
                                                                                                                                    from end 
                                                                                                                                    of second 
                                 4‐year graduation                          28%                                                     year to 6‐
                                                                                                                                    year 
                                 6‐year graduation                                         52%                                      graduation


                                                       0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


   *Colleges represented: Bloomsburg, East Stroudsburg, Indiana, La Salle, Lock Haven, Millersville, Moore, Peirce, Shippensburg, Temple,
   UArts, West Chester
   **Completed first four consecutive semesters and earned minimum GPA to be considered in good academic standing at individual institution
   ***Completed first four consecutive semesters and earned enough credits to enter third fall as a junior



   Questions for Further Reflection:
   1. To what extent do changes in progress numbers represent students leaving college
      versus simply not being on track to a four- or six-year graduation but still enrolled?

   1. Among those students who leave college or are at risk of not completing, what
      connections might exist between why and when a student falls off the pathway to
      graduation, and how might strategies be targeted for students falling off track at
      different points on the college continuum?

                                                                                                                 11 | P a g e
4    Academic challenges may explain only a portion of the loss
      of Philadelphia students from college.

Only half of students at four-year institutions who persisted through their second year
accumulated enough credits to be on track to a four-year graduation. Although 70% of
students completed their first two years of college in good academic standing, a vast
majority of those still enrolled after two years, only half of those students had
accumulated enough credits to enroll as juniors in their third year of college (see Figure 5
on previous page).

Questions for Further Reflection:
1. What is driving the low percentage of students who are on track to graduate in four
   years after the second year?

2. What are the different student support strategies or institutional policy changes that can
   help students to pursue and stay on a four-year, or alternatively a six-year, track to
   graduation?


                                     Technical Notes
       It is important to note that our analyses of progress and completion in
       Findings 3-5 do not include data about the number of students that transfer
       to other institutions. The inclusion in our data of students who transfer
       could explain some of the drop-off observed along the progress
       continuum.

       From a study conducted by OMG in 2010 (see earlier footnote), we know
       that 32% of Philadelphia public school students attending college enrolled
       in more than one college, representing either transfers or concurrent
       enrollment (e.g., taking summer classes at a different institution).




                                                                                 12 | P a g e
5        Among Philadelphia students completing college, many
          are taking more than four years to complete.

A little over a quarter of the students in this study graduated in four years, and
approximately an additional quarter graduated within six years. Six-year graduation
rates were almost twice that of four-year graduation rates. Twenty-eight percent of
students who entered four-year institutions from Philadelphia high schools in 2003
graduated in four years. The number of students who graduated in six years was nearly
double (52%), representing an additional 24 percentage points of graduated college
students (Figure 6).

     Figure 6: Proportion of first-fall students from Philadelphia high schools who matriculated into select
     colleges* in 2003 and graduated in four and six years




                                       28%



                                                                 52%




  0%          10%        20%        30%         40%        50%         60%       70%        80%        90%        100%

                               on‐time graduation                             6‐year graduation

       *Colleges represented: Bloomsburg, East Stroudsburg, Indiana, La Salle, Lock Haven, Millersville, Moore,
       Peirce, Shippensburg, Temple, UArts, West Chester


The difference between six-year and four-year graduation rates is particularly
pronounced among “very competitive” colleges. The difference overall between four-
year and six-year graduation is 24 percentage points, whereas within “very competitive”
institutions, the difference is 31 percentage points (24% of students who entered “very
competitive” colleges from Philadelphia high schools in 2003 had graduated by 2007 [in
four years], and 55% had graduated by 2009 [in six years]). By comparison, the
difference between four-year and six-year graduation rates at “competitive” colleges was
19 percentage points (30% and 49%, respectively). (Figure 7).




                                                                                                                  13 | P a g e
Figure 7: Proportion of first-fall students from Philadelphia high schools who matriculated into select
     colleges* in 2003 and graduated in four and six years from “competitive” and “very competitive”
     colleges




       *Colleges represented: Competitive: Bloomsburg, East Stroudsburg, Indiana, La Salle, Lock Haven,
       Millersville, Moore, Peirce, Shippensburg, USciences, West Chester; Very Competitive: Temple, UArts



Questions for Further Reflection:
1. What is the impact on students of taking six years versus four years to graduate?

2. How are college-level policies impacting students’ longer time to graduation and/or
   supporting students who take longer?




                                                                                                             14 | P a g e
6       Colleges of different selectivity (e.g., very competitive,
         competitive, non-competitive) tend to enroll Philadelphia
         students from certain high school types (e.g., special
         admissions, parochial, and neighborhood).

Non-competitive college (CCP) enrollees from Philadelphia came disproportionately
from neighborhood and citywide public schools compared with other college selectivity
types. In 2009, across all of the college enrollees in this study from Philadelphia, 22%
were from neighborhood and citywide high schools; however, at CCP, 48% of
Philadelphia students were from these school types (Figure 8).

 Figure 8: First-fall student enrollment in colleges and universities, by college selectivity group and high school type, in 2009.


100%                                                               3%
               8%               5%                                                                                                5%
                                                 10%                               11%
 90%
                                                                                               High School Type 
                                                                  25%
 80%                                             21%                                             Private                          30% 
              28%                                                                  22%




                                                                                                                                         Total percent of first-fall student enrollment
                                36%
 70%
                                                                  12%
                                                                                                 Archdiocese
 60%           4%
                                                 22%                               19%                                            11% 
                                13%                               13%
 50%                                                                                             Charter
                                                                                                                                  22% 
 40%          39%
                                18%
                                                 24%                                             School District of
 30%                                                                               33%
                                                                                                 Philadelphia, Special
                                                                  48%                            Admissions Only
 20%                                                                                             School District of
                                28%                                                                                               33% 
                                                 23%                                             Philadelphia
 10%          21%
                                                                                   15%
  0%
               Very        Competitive       Less              Not          Special
          competitive                  competitive competitive
              N=814          N=1239          N=118            N=1168          N=27                                      TOTAL=3,366

  Note: The stacked colors represent the high school types from which the students graduated prior to their college enrollment.
  Includes all colleges in the study except Peirce and UPenn because of incomplete Philadelphia high school enrollment data.




A higher ratio of “competitive” college enrollees from Philadelphia came from
Archdiocese high schools compared with other college selectivity groups. Across all of
the Philadelphia graduates attending college in this study, 30% were from Archdiocese
schools; however, 36% of the Philadelphia students attending “competitive” colleges
were from Archdiocese high schools (Figure 8).




                                                                                                                  15 | P a g e
Philadelphia special admissions high school graduates in this study enrolled at a
higher proportion in “very competitive” colleges compared with other college types.
Across all of the Philadelphia graduates attending college in this study, 22% were from
special admissions high schools; however, 39% of the Philadelphia students attending
“very competitive” colleges were from special admissions high schools. (See Figure 8 on
page 17.)

Philadelphia charter high school graduates enrolled in “competitive” and non-
competitive colleges in similar proportions to their overall representation in the study
sample. Charter school graduates made up a relatively small part of this sample overall,
11%. Twelve percent of the Philadelphia students attending “competitive” colleges and
13% attending non-competitive colleges were from charter schools. (See Figure 8 on
page 17.)


Questions for Further Reflection:
1. What is there to learn from the patterns of students enrolling in certain college types
   from specific high school types?

2. What are the reasons that pathways to certain college types are different across
   different high school types?




                                                                                 16 | P a g e
7        The data suggest that differences exist between the
          patterns of students from Philadelphia versus non-
          Philadelphia high schools.

In 2003, students from Philadelphia high schools had marginally lower acceptance
rates than non-Philadelphia students, but very slightly higher enrollment rates. In
2003, students from Philadelphia high schools were accepted about 6% less often than
students from non-Philadelphia high schools; however, enrollment rates of students
accepted from Philadelphia high schools were two percentage points higher. This
suggests that Philadelphia students enrolled more often in colleges that accepted them
(Figure 9).

     Figure 9: Connection and entry patterns among students from Philadelphia versus non-Philadelphia high
     schools, 2003 fall entering cohort


                                                 Connection



                  Acceptance rates                     Enrollment rates
                  were 6 percentage                    were 2 percentage
                  points lower among                   points higher among
                  Philadelphia                         Philadelphia
                  students                             students


     Note: Acceptance rate is the percent of applicants who were accepted. Enrollment rate is the percent of accepted
     students who enrolled. The Technical Appendix provides a list of the colleges included in each analysis.


Although Philadelphia and non-Philadelphia students enrolled at near equal rates,
developmental education course requirements were much higher among Philadelphia
students. Trends show that once enrolled, more Philadelphia high school students
required developmental education courses in English and math than their non-
Philadelphia counterparts; the differences were 20 percentage points higher in English
and 13 percentage points higher in math in 2005 (Figure 10).

  Figure 10: Developmental education course enrollment and pass rates among students from Philadelphia
  versus non-Philadelphia high schools, 2005 fall entering cohort


                            Entry


                       English                               Math
                       developmental                         developmental
                       education course                      education course
                       enrollment rates                      enrollment rates
                       were 20 percentage                    were 13 percentage
                       points higher among                   points higher among
                       Philadelphia                          Philadelphia
                       students                              students
                                                                                                                 17 | P a g e
Both four-year and six-year graduation rates were lower among Philadelphia students
at four-year colleges than among non-Philadelphia students. Philadelphia students’
four-year graduation rates were 24 percentage points lower than those of non-
Philadelphia students, and six-year graduation rates were 23 percentage points lower
among students enrolled in four-year colleges (Figure 11).

    Figure 11: Completion rates among students from Philadelphia versus non-Philadelphia high schools, 2003 fall
    entering cohort


                                           Completion




                    Four-year                     Six-year
                    graduation rates              graduation rates
                    were 24                       were 23
                    percentage points             percentage points
                    lower among                   lower among
                    Philadelphia                  Philadelphia
                    students                      students




Questions for Further Reflection:
1. What practices are in place at colleges for supporting Philadelphia students’ progress
   across the entire college continuum?



                                              Technical Notes
        Our comparison of Philadelphia versus non-Philadelphia student patterns
        includes a smaller number of colleges than the other analyses since fewer
        colleges provided non-Philadelphia student data. As for the analyses of
        Philadelphia students above, the colleges that provided data on
        connection, entry, and completion are different for each step in the
        progression, making comparisons across the continuum challenging. The
        Technical Appendix provides a full overview of which colleges included
        both Philadelphia and non-Philadelphia data that were used in our
        analyses.




                                                                                                      18 | P a g e
3.	Preliminary	Recommendations	
As a community that seeks to build its profile as a city working to address its low rates of
educational attainment, Philadelphia is poised for greater economic, cultural, and
community development. However, to meet this important charge, Philadelphia
stakeholders will need to continue to connect the mayor’s ambitious goal of doubling the
number of Philadelphians with college degrees to the ground-level work that leads to real
changes for students in the community.

We hope that the data presented in this report can help to do just that, guide new
conversations about policies and practices as well as future data collection efforts that can
lead to action in the community. Below, we offer some preliminary but concrete policy
and data recommendations for moving forward, as well as a series of questions for
refining and generating new ideas among Council members and in the Philadelphia
community.

Moving Forward: Policy Recommendations
                              Data Findings                           Policy Directions
                                                          1. Identify opportunities across K-12
                                                             and postsecondary partners for
                   Student applications are rising faster
 Connection        than acceptances and enrollments.
                                                             increasing not only Philadelphia
                                                             student applications but also
                                                             corresponding enrollments

                   Developmental education course           2. Explore strategies at the K-12
                   requirements are high for                   and postsecondary levels to
 Entry             Philadelphia students entering              minimize the burden of
                   college, especially at the community        developmental education as a
                   college.                                    barrier

                   Getting through the first semester
                   and the first year of college are not
                                                            3. Target persistence strategies to
                   the only critical retention points for
                                                               students dropping off after
                   students; students may also be
                                                               completing a second year
 Progress          losing ground even after completing
                   their second year.
                   Academic challenges appear to          4. Consider and address non-
                   explain only a portion of Philadelphia    academic reasons for student
                   student drop off once in college.         loss




                                                                                     19 | P a g e
Policy Recommendations (cont’d)
                                                            5. Design policies that help more
                                                               students graduate within four
                   Among Philadelphia students                 years
 Completion        completing college, many are taking      6. Ensure that policies, particularly
                   more than four years to graduate.           financial aid policies, support
                                                               longer times to graduation when
                                                               appropriate

                                                            7. Identify the reasons why these
 High School       Colleges of different selectivity tend
                   to enroll Philadelphia students from
                                                               primary pathways exist (e.g.,
 Type              certain high school types.
                                                               academic preparation,
                                                               recruitment policies)

 Philadelphia      Differences exist between the        8. Identify particular strategies that
                   patterns of students from               have been successful in targeting
 vs. Non-          Philadelphia versus non-Philadelphia    the needs of Philadelphia
 Philadelphia      high schools.                           students




Moving Forward: Recommendations for Future Data Collection
Although we have identified some key findings and some possible policy implications
and directions in this report, one of the most important next steps out of this effort will be
to improve data collection and analysis moving forward. As with any new data collection,
a crucial element of this process has been not only learning from the content of the data,
but also identifying some of the specific challenges in collecting and analyzing these
data.

This first round of the Council’s data collection uncovered some key challenges around
(1) individual institutional research capacity, (2) shared interpretations of data definitions,
and (3) data interpretation. These types of challenges are typical of multi-system data
collection efforts. Developing a common set of indicators for collection across
independent institutions is an iterative process; refinements need to continue to be made
if these data are to inform policy changes and drive effective improvement strategies and
practices in a meaningful way.

We have developed a series of recommendations that we hope can help strengthen these
data efforts in the future.

Add additional variables: Information about introductory college-level (credit-bearing)
coursework (e.g., Gateway Math and English classes) would add opportunities for
additional analyses.
   • Although information was available about developmental education course
       enrollment and pass rates, the degree to which this led to students’ enrollment in
       introductory college-level coursework versus additional developmental education
       courses could not be determined.

                                                                                      20 | P a g e
Strengthen areas in which data were missing: Less complete developmental education and
non-Philadelphia student data limited the ability to analyze and draw firm conclusions
about these points along the pathway to completion. Only 11 of 20 schools in the study
provided developmental education data on their Philadelphia students for both Math and
English, and only seven schools provided such information about non-Philadelphia
students. This represented fewer schools than in our other analyses.

Collect additional years of data: Although we highlight areas to strengthen this data
collection, the data from the original template suggested many trends. However, the most
recent data in this study was from the 2008-2009 academic year. Information from the
2009-2010 and 2010-2011 academic years will be particularly useful in order to explore
significant contextual influences like the economy that may have had an impact in the
most recent years.

Collect student-level data: A longer-term goal for this effort might be to collect and
analyze data at the student level. The collection of data at the school level limited the
ability to track the progress of individual students across the college continuum. For
example, from the data in this study, it could not be determined whether an increase in
applications across colleges represented an increase in the number of students applying or
an increase in the number of applications per student. Likewise, bivariate and
multivariate analyses, which could highlight associations between demographic factors
and the outcomes in this study, can only be conducted with student-level data.

Furthermore, without student-level data, we cannot track the impact of transfer patterns
on these data. Without the ability to match students across colleges, we cannot determine
if a student enrolling initially in one college graduates from another college.

Finally, student-level data would offer the opportunity to link School District of
Philadelphia, Archdiocese, and Independent high school data and answer additional
questions about the connection of students from the K-12 to the postsecondary education
system.

Align metrics with those of Complete College America: Complete College America is a
national nonprofit working to increase the number of Americans with a college degree
and to close degree attainment gaps for traditionally underrepresented students. In July
2010, the National Governors Association (NGA) adopted the Complete College
America Common Completion Metrics, highlighting the importance of consistent data to
document the progress and success of postsecondary students across all states. Having a
commensurate set of metrics from Philadelphia would signal Philadelphia’s willingness
to align with this national agenda, and would allow for higher-quality data reporting and
use to drive policy.




                                                                              21 | P a g e
Questions for Further Reflection
A key focus of this report is to present data in a way that can contribute to new
conversations across the community. For all of our findings, we posed a number of
questions for further reflection that arose during the analysis process and during ongoing
conversations with Council members. We have compiled these below. Throughout the
community, we hope that these questions can help make the data presented in this report
actionable and drive partners toward an aligned, multi-sector response in supporting
students’ degree attainment once in college.


1. What is driving the increase in applications: more students applying or more
   applications per students?


2. Why hasn’t the increase in college applications led to a greater rise in acceptances and
   subsequent enrollments?


3. What are some of the differences among students enrolling in four- and two-year
   institutions that might be driving higher developmental education course rates at CCP?


4. What is driving higher developmental education enrollment and pass rates in English
   versus math and what are the policy implications at both the K-12 and college levels?


5. How does placement and success in developmental education courses impact students’
   performance in introductory college-level coursework and their prospects for
   completing college?


6. To what extent do changes in progress numbers represent students leaving college
   versus simply not being on track to a four- or six-year graduation but still enrolled?


7. Among those students who leave college or are at risk of not completing, what
   connections might exist between why and when a student falls off the pathway to
   graduation, and how might strategies be targeted for students falling off track at
   different points on the college continuum?


8. What is driving the low percentage of students who are on track to graduate in four
   years after the second year?




                                                                                 22 | P a g e
9. What are the different student support strategies or institutional policy changes that can
   help students to pursue and stay on a four-year, or alternatively a six-year, track to
   graduation?


10. What is the impact on students of taking six years versus four years to graduate?


11. How are college-level policies impacting students’ longer time to graduation and/or
    supporting students who take longer?

12. What is there to learn from the patterns of students enrolling in certain college types
    from specific high school types?


13. What are the reasons that pathways to certain college types are different across
    different high school types?


14. What practices are in place at colleges for supporting Philadelphia students’ progress
    across the entire college continuum?


Closing Thoughts

In order to reach Mayor Nutter’s goal of doubling the baccalaureate attainment rate of
Philadelphians by 2017, the partners in this work will need to explore the questions
outlined above and develop policies to address the challenges that the data reveal.
Furthermore, college-specific strategies that have improved access and completion
outcomes for students do exist in the community, and offer learning opportunities for
other colleges. Improving and standardizing the use of data across Pennsylvania colleges
will help institutions to maximize the successes and better understand the challenges,
while enabling better tracking of changes in college outcomes over time.

The Council for College and Career Success, with its representatives from a variety of
stakeholder groups, has an opportunity to facilitate the alignment of college success
strategies among colleges and between the K-12 and postsecondary system. The data
suggest that strategies to help students progress through the first years of college and
persist through to college completion need to be diverse and adaptable, addressing
academic, financial, and students’ life circumstances. Employing a holistic approach that
includes curriculum alignment, adequate financial aid offerings, and targeted student
advising services will be essential for achieving the Mayor’s college completion goal for
Philadelphians and for positioning Philadelphians to succeed in a world that increasingly
demands a college-educated workforce.



                                                                                  23 | P a g e

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Philadelphia Students' Pathways to Postsecondary Completion

  • 1. Pathways to Postsecondary Completion: How Are Philadelphia Students Faring? October 2011
  • 2. Table of Contents 1. Introduction ..............................................................................................................2 About this Report .....................................................................................................3 2. Data Findings ...........................................................................................................6 3. Preliminary Recommendations ............................................................................. 19 Moving Forward: Policy Recommendations .......................................................... 19 Moving Forward: Recommendations for Future Data Collection ......................... 20 Questions for Further Reflection ........................................................................... 22 Closing Thoughts .................................................................................................. 23
  • 3. 1. Introduction “In order to be a truly great city, in order to be a true world-class city, in order to be a city of hope and opportunity, the new Philadelphia must be ‘The Education City.’” -Mayor Michael Nutter Since his inauguration, increasing college completion rates among Philadelphians has been an educational and economic development priority for Mayor Nutter and his administration. This agenda has drawn national recognition to Philadelphia as a city that is working across community stakeholders to improve college access at a time when the national focus on college completion is increasing. Many policymakers, funders, and local advocates recognize the importance of raising the education level of the American populace if the United States is to compete effectively in the global marketplace. The Obama administration and national foundations like the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Lumina Foundation for Education have set forth public goals for increasing the number of Americans with college degrees, and even in these difficult economic times, they have made substantive investments in college completion. Reaching the broad and ambitious goals of the college completion movement requires finding a way to ground and focus conversations at the level of serving students. Across communities, data use has emerged as a key method of achieving this objective. Efforts like Complete College America are helping states to delve more deeply into their educational data, develop a clearer understanding of students’ college completion patterns, and ultimately identify strategies that can help localities, states, and the nation achieve stronger educational and occupational outcomes for young adults. Mayor Nutter, upon taking office, formed the Philadelphia Council for College and Career Success, a group with a vision to ensure that all Philadelphia youth are prepared for educational and economic success. The Council includes a range of leaders from the School District of Philadelphia, Philadelphia’s multiple colleges and universities, influential business organizations, research organizations, and members of the nonprofit provider community. The Council’s leadership team is comprised of three committees: Project U-Turn, which focuses on high school dropouts; WorkReady, which focuses on connecting education and employment; and CollegeReady, which is devoted to increasing college access and success. CollegeReady has been instrumental as the steward of the local college completion agenda, pushing data collection to the forefront in its efforts to support that agenda. These partners have employed the use of data to activate conversations about Philadelphia students’ college completion patterns and to create a stronger sense of accountability across all Council partners and in the community. Nationally about 20% of ninth graders graduate high school on time and go 2|Page
  • 4. on to graduate college within six years. Philadelphia’s college completion rate is about half of that, creating even greater urgency within an already pressing issue.1 About this Report Most recently, a subcommittee of CollegeReady, the Data Workteam, spearheaded the development of a comprehensive set of common college metrics and a tool for collecting these data across colleges serving Philadelphia’s high school students. Twenty colleges submitted a first round of data in the summer of 2011 using this tool. This report offers data analyses from this data collection effort and seeks to provide answers to three critical questions: 1. What are the college access and success patterns of Philadelphia students, including not only those who graduated from public (including charter) high schools but also from private and Archdiocese high schools, once they enter college? 2. What are the specific points of progress and challenge for students from Philadelphia high schools as they move from the application process through developmental education coursework and toward graduation? 3. How do patterns for students from Philadelphia high schools compare to students from non-Philadelphia high schools? Section 2 of this report provides an overview of our Data Findings, which OMG developed in partnership with the CollegeReady Data Workteam’s senior leadership. We used the Loss-Momentum Framework2 developed by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to organize these findings and explore the success and loss patterns of students from Philadelphia high schools across four key junctures in their college experience: Connection: This reflects students’ success in the college admissions process and includes the following indicators: number of applications, number of acceptances, and number of students who enrolled. Entry: This reflects students’ placement and outcomes in developmental education coursework and includes the following indicators: number of students who took developmental education courses in English and math and those who passed developmental education courses in English and math. 1 To date, data use in Philadelphia has focused primarily on analyses of National Student Clearinghouse data provided by the School District of Philadelphia and also through research conducted by the OMG Center, supported by the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation. The full OMG report, College Access and Success in Philadelphia: College Enrollment Activity can be found online at: https://knight.box.net/shared/lv3eiqg542. 2 The Loss-Momentum Framework was designed by the Completion by Design Assistance Team at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The Completion by Design initiative is a five-year investment by the Foundation to enable groups of community college campuses in several states to collaborate on the design and implementation of a model pathway to completion. For the full framework, see the Technical Appendix. 3|Page
  • 5. Progress: This reflects students’ movement through credit-bearing coursework and includes the following indicators: number of students who completed their first and second semesters, those who completed their second year, and those who were in good academic standing and/or on track to graduate after two years. Completion: This reflects students’ graduation from college and includes the following indicators: the number of students graduating in four years or in six years. In the final section of this report we present some Preliminary Recommendations and offer some ideas about how to move forward with policy and data activities. In addition, we pose a series of questions to further the conversation around these data so that the Council and the community can continue to generate ideas about what these data mean for policy and data collection moving forward. Throughout the report, we include a series of Technical Notes with information about the data in this report, highlighting how we conducted our analyses, as well as some of the challenges and limitations to data interpretation. 4|Page
  • 6. Introductory Technical Notes The Mayor's Office of Education requested data from 30 local and statewide colleges and universities for this study, including public and private, as well as two-year and four-year institutions, and received analyzable data from 20 diverse institutions. These participating institutions submitted information about seven freshman cohorts entering college between 2003 and 2009, tracking their progress from the application process through graduation to the extent possible. The 2003 cohorts across the colleges, for example, offer longitudinal data from first-year students' application submissions to six- year completion rates. In addition, colleges provided disaggregated information across these indicators specifically for students from individual Philadelphia high schools. Given that not all colleges provided data for all indicators, this report does not always present data for the same cohort (i.e., the same groups of colleges and universities) from connection through completion. In order to maximize the data, we made decisions about what institutions to include in our analysis on the basis of which ones had complete data in any one of the four Loss-Momentum areas: connection, entry, progress, or completion. In other words, the groups of colleges and universities included in analyses may be different across each phase. It is always noted throughout the report which institutions are included in any given analysis. Because the data were provided in the aggregate, individual-level progress, such as success in one step of the pathway in relation to a previous step, could not be assessed. The primary focus of this report is the postsecondary success of Philadelphia high school graduates. Thus, we present data on most indicators for the cohort of students coming from Philadelphia high schools only. Many colleges provided comparable data on students entering from non-Philadelphia high schools as well, and we use those data to present some comparative findings of students coming from Philadelphia versus non-Philadelphia high schools. Community colleges represent a unique postsecondary experience and, as such, the data from the community college in our study (Community College of Philadelphia) were analyzed separately. For a complete list of participating colleges and universities, a full overview of the metrics collected and their definitions, and a description of the student population, see the Technical Appendix. 5|Page
  • 7. 2. Data Findings The key findings of our analysis are the following: The number of college applications is rising faster than acceptance and 1 enrollment figures. Developmental education course requirements are high for Philadelphia 2 students entering college, especially at the community college. Getting through the first semester and the first year of college are not the 3 only critical retention points for students; students may also be losing ground even after completing their second year. Academic challenges may explain only a portion of the loss of Philadelphia 4 students from college. Many Philadelphia students are taking more than four years to complete 5 college. Colleges of different selectivity (e.g., very competitive, competitive, non- 6 competitive) tend to enroll Philadelphia students from certain high school types (e.g., special admissions, parochial, and neighborhood). Differences exist between the college success patterns of students from 7 Philadelphia versus non-Philadelphia high schools. Each of these findings is described in more detail below. In addition, we highlight some questions for further reflection based on preliminary conversations with local postsecondary leaders and some of the research-based strategies included in the Loss- Momentum Framework introduced earlier. 6|Page
  • 8. The number of college applications is rising faster than 1 acceptance and enrollment figures. The number of applications to colleges increased between 2003 and 2009, but the degree to which this led to an increase in acceptances and enrollments was more moderate. Over the six-year period, the number of college applications from Philadelphia high school students steadily increased. The large increase in applications, however, did not produce a significant corresponding increase in acceptances or enrollment. Figure 1 shows that from 2003-2009, college applications increased by 61% (an additional 6,752 applications), acceptances increased by 22% (an additional 1,394 acceptances), and there was a 15% increase in enrollments (an additional 307 students). Figure 1: Total number of applications, acceptances, and enrollments from 2003 to 2009 among 2003 through 2009 first-fall entering student cohorts from Philadelphia high schools 20000 18000 17899 17009 16000 14949 15427 14000 13378 12644 12000 11147 10000 8000 7774 6930 7220 6000 6380 6469 6347 6522 4000 2000 2015 2149 2253 2105 2195 2189 2322 1129 1266 1296 1173 1148 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Applications Acceptances Enrollments CCP Enrollments Note: No application or acceptance data are from CCP because CCP has non-competitive enrollment. 7|Page
  • 9. In other words, for every 20 additional applications submitted, there were approximately four additional acceptances and one additional enrollment (Figure 2). Figure 2: Change from 2003 to 2009 in applications, acceptances, and enrollments among 2003 through 2009 first-fall entering student cohorts from Philadelphia high schools For every 20 additional applications from Philadelphia There were high school approximately and students from 4 additional 1 additional 2003 to 2009, acceptances, enrollment. Note: Rates were calculated by dividing the number of increased applications and acceptances by the number of increased enrollments. Questions for Further Reflection: 1. What is driving the increase in applications: more students applying or more applications per students? 2. Why hasn’t the increase in college applications led to a greater rise in acceptances and subsequent enrollments? 8|Page
  • 10. 2 Developmental education course requirements are high for Philadelphia students entering college, especially at the community college. Over 23% of Philadelphia students entering four-year institution were placed or enrolled in remedial course work in math and/or English. Placement and enrollment of students from Philadelphia high schools in developmental education math and English courses remained steady from 2006-2009, with about one-third of students from Philadelphia high schools requiring English remediation and about one-fourth requiring math remediation (Figure 3). Figure 3: Placement/enrollment rates in math and English developmental education courses at select four- year colleges* among 2006 to 2009 first-fall entering student cohorts from Philadelphia high schools 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 33% 33% 32% 35% 30% 23% 24% 24% 20% 18% 10% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 % placed  in  % took English % took mathin  % placed  English  Math *Colleges represented in developmental education analyses: Math: Bloomsburg, Chestnut Hill, Holy Family, Indiana, Lock Haven, Millersville, Shippensburg, Slippery Rock, Temple English: Bloomsburg, Chestnut Hill, Holy Family, Millersville, Moore, Shippensburg, Temple, UArts Note: Developmental education course data prior to 2006 were unavailable. 9|Page
  • 11. At CCP, an even higher percentage of students enrolled in developmental education coursework; more than half of entering students enrolled in English and/or math developmental education courses. Between 2006 and 2009, on average, 83% of students entering CCP from Philadelphia high schools required developmental education courses for English and 63% for math (Figure 4). Developmental education enrollment at CCP was over 40 percentage points higher than at the four-year colleges. Figure 4: Placement/Enrollment rates in math and English developmental education courses at CCP among 2006 to 2009 first-fall entering cohorts from Philadelphia high schools % placed  in  % placed  in  English  Math  Across four-year institutions and CCP, developmental education enrollment rates were higher for English than for math. In addition to enrolling more often in English than math courses, students were more likely to pass English courses. Students passed English courses on average 91% of the time versus 76% of the time for math at four-year colleges; at CCP, students passed English courses on average 45% of the time versus 41% of the time for math. Questions for Further Reflection: 1. What are some of the differences among students enrolling in four- and two-year institutions that might be driving higher developmental education course rates at CCP? 2. What is driving higher developmental education enrollment and pass rates in English versus math and what are the policy implications at both the K-12 and college levels? 3. How does placement and success in developmental education courses impact students’ performance in introductory college-level coursework and their prospects for completing college? 10 | P a g e
  • 12. 3 Getting through the first semester and the first year of college are not the only critical retention points for students; students may also be losing ground even after completing their second year. Students are equally likely to be off the pathway to six-year completion after their second year of college as before their second year of college. Twenty-three percent of students left college before completing their second year; however, an additional 25% of students failed to complete college after six years (Figure 5). Figure 5: Proportion of first-fall students from Philadelphia high schools who matriculated into select colleges* in 2003 and persisted and met graduation milestones from first semester through to four- and six-year graduation completed at least 1 course credit in first 23  99% percentage  semester point drop  retained fall 1 to fall 2 (i.e., returned for a 2nd from entry  83% spring semester) to end of  completed fall 1 through spring 2 (i.e., second  77% year completed first 4 consecutive semesters) in good standing fall 1 through spring 2** 70% 25  percentage  on track to graduate fall 1 through spring 2*** 35% point drop  from end  of second  4‐year graduation 28% year to 6‐ year  6‐year graduation 52% graduation 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% *Colleges represented: Bloomsburg, East Stroudsburg, Indiana, La Salle, Lock Haven, Millersville, Moore, Peirce, Shippensburg, Temple, UArts, West Chester **Completed first four consecutive semesters and earned minimum GPA to be considered in good academic standing at individual institution ***Completed first four consecutive semesters and earned enough credits to enter third fall as a junior Questions for Further Reflection: 1. To what extent do changes in progress numbers represent students leaving college versus simply not being on track to a four- or six-year graduation but still enrolled? 1. Among those students who leave college or are at risk of not completing, what connections might exist between why and when a student falls off the pathway to graduation, and how might strategies be targeted for students falling off track at different points on the college continuum? 11 | P a g e
  • 13. 4 Academic challenges may explain only a portion of the loss of Philadelphia students from college. Only half of students at four-year institutions who persisted through their second year accumulated enough credits to be on track to a four-year graduation. Although 70% of students completed their first two years of college in good academic standing, a vast majority of those still enrolled after two years, only half of those students had accumulated enough credits to enroll as juniors in their third year of college (see Figure 5 on previous page). Questions for Further Reflection: 1. What is driving the low percentage of students who are on track to graduate in four years after the second year? 2. What are the different student support strategies or institutional policy changes that can help students to pursue and stay on a four-year, or alternatively a six-year, track to graduation? Technical Notes It is important to note that our analyses of progress and completion in Findings 3-5 do not include data about the number of students that transfer to other institutions. The inclusion in our data of students who transfer could explain some of the drop-off observed along the progress continuum. From a study conducted by OMG in 2010 (see earlier footnote), we know that 32% of Philadelphia public school students attending college enrolled in more than one college, representing either transfers or concurrent enrollment (e.g., taking summer classes at a different institution). 12 | P a g e
  • 14. 5 Among Philadelphia students completing college, many are taking more than four years to complete. A little over a quarter of the students in this study graduated in four years, and approximately an additional quarter graduated within six years. Six-year graduation rates were almost twice that of four-year graduation rates. Twenty-eight percent of students who entered four-year institutions from Philadelphia high schools in 2003 graduated in four years. The number of students who graduated in six years was nearly double (52%), representing an additional 24 percentage points of graduated college students (Figure 6). Figure 6: Proportion of first-fall students from Philadelphia high schools who matriculated into select colleges* in 2003 and graduated in four and six years 28% 52% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% on‐time graduation 6‐year graduation *Colleges represented: Bloomsburg, East Stroudsburg, Indiana, La Salle, Lock Haven, Millersville, Moore, Peirce, Shippensburg, Temple, UArts, West Chester The difference between six-year and four-year graduation rates is particularly pronounced among “very competitive” colleges. The difference overall between four- year and six-year graduation is 24 percentage points, whereas within “very competitive” institutions, the difference is 31 percentage points (24% of students who entered “very competitive” colleges from Philadelphia high schools in 2003 had graduated by 2007 [in four years], and 55% had graduated by 2009 [in six years]). By comparison, the difference between four-year and six-year graduation rates at “competitive” colleges was 19 percentage points (30% and 49%, respectively). (Figure 7). 13 | P a g e
  • 15. Figure 7: Proportion of first-fall students from Philadelphia high schools who matriculated into select colleges* in 2003 and graduated in four and six years from “competitive” and “very competitive” colleges *Colleges represented: Competitive: Bloomsburg, East Stroudsburg, Indiana, La Salle, Lock Haven, Millersville, Moore, Peirce, Shippensburg, USciences, West Chester; Very Competitive: Temple, UArts Questions for Further Reflection: 1. What is the impact on students of taking six years versus four years to graduate? 2. How are college-level policies impacting students’ longer time to graduation and/or supporting students who take longer? 14 | P a g e
  • 16. 6 Colleges of different selectivity (e.g., very competitive, competitive, non-competitive) tend to enroll Philadelphia students from certain high school types (e.g., special admissions, parochial, and neighborhood). Non-competitive college (CCP) enrollees from Philadelphia came disproportionately from neighborhood and citywide public schools compared with other college selectivity types. In 2009, across all of the college enrollees in this study from Philadelphia, 22% were from neighborhood and citywide high schools; however, at CCP, 48% of Philadelphia students were from these school types (Figure 8). Figure 8: First-fall student enrollment in colleges and universities, by college selectivity group and high school type, in 2009. 100% 3% 8% 5% 5% 10% 11% 90% High School Type  25% 80% 21% Private 30%  28% 22% Total percent of first-fall student enrollment 36% 70% 12% Archdiocese 60% 4% 22% 19% 11%  13% 13% 50% Charter 22%  40% 39% 18% 24% School District of 30% 33% Philadelphia, Special 48% Admissions Only 20% School District of 28% 33%  23% Philadelphia 10% 21% 15% 0% Very Competitive Less Not Special competitive competitive competitive      N=814          N=1239          N=118            N=1168          N=27       TOTAL=3,366 Note: The stacked colors represent the high school types from which the students graduated prior to their college enrollment. Includes all colleges in the study except Peirce and UPenn because of incomplete Philadelphia high school enrollment data. A higher ratio of “competitive” college enrollees from Philadelphia came from Archdiocese high schools compared with other college selectivity groups. Across all of the Philadelphia graduates attending college in this study, 30% were from Archdiocese schools; however, 36% of the Philadelphia students attending “competitive” colleges were from Archdiocese high schools (Figure 8). 15 | P a g e
  • 17. Philadelphia special admissions high school graduates in this study enrolled at a higher proportion in “very competitive” colleges compared with other college types. Across all of the Philadelphia graduates attending college in this study, 22% were from special admissions high schools; however, 39% of the Philadelphia students attending “very competitive” colleges were from special admissions high schools. (See Figure 8 on page 17.) Philadelphia charter high school graduates enrolled in “competitive” and non- competitive colleges in similar proportions to their overall representation in the study sample. Charter school graduates made up a relatively small part of this sample overall, 11%. Twelve percent of the Philadelphia students attending “competitive” colleges and 13% attending non-competitive colleges were from charter schools. (See Figure 8 on page 17.) Questions for Further Reflection: 1. What is there to learn from the patterns of students enrolling in certain college types from specific high school types? 2. What are the reasons that pathways to certain college types are different across different high school types? 16 | P a g e
  • 18. 7 The data suggest that differences exist between the patterns of students from Philadelphia versus non- Philadelphia high schools. In 2003, students from Philadelphia high schools had marginally lower acceptance rates than non-Philadelphia students, but very slightly higher enrollment rates. In 2003, students from Philadelphia high schools were accepted about 6% less often than students from non-Philadelphia high schools; however, enrollment rates of students accepted from Philadelphia high schools were two percentage points higher. This suggests that Philadelphia students enrolled more often in colleges that accepted them (Figure 9). Figure 9: Connection and entry patterns among students from Philadelphia versus non-Philadelphia high schools, 2003 fall entering cohort Connection Acceptance rates Enrollment rates were 6 percentage were 2 percentage points lower among points higher among Philadelphia Philadelphia students students Note: Acceptance rate is the percent of applicants who were accepted. Enrollment rate is the percent of accepted students who enrolled. The Technical Appendix provides a list of the colleges included in each analysis. Although Philadelphia and non-Philadelphia students enrolled at near equal rates, developmental education course requirements were much higher among Philadelphia students. Trends show that once enrolled, more Philadelphia high school students required developmental education courses in English and math than their non- Philadelphia counterparts; the differences were 20 percentage points higher in English and 13 percentage points higher in math in 2005 (Figure 10). Figure 10: Developmental education course enrollment and pass rates among students from Philadelphia versus non-Philadelphia high schools, 2005 fall entering cohort Entry English Math developmental developmental education course education course enrollment rates enrollment rates were 20 percentage were 13 percentage points higher among points higher among Philadelphia Philadelphia students students 17 | P a g e
  • 19. Both four-year and six-year graduation rates were lower among Philadelphia students at four-year colleges than among non-Philadelphia students. Philadelphia students’ four-year graduation rates were 24 percentage points lower than those of non- Philadelphia students, and six-year graduation rates were 23 percentage points lower among students enrolled in four-year colleges (Figure 11). Figure 11: Completion rates among students from Philadelphia versus non-Philadelphia high schools, 2003 fall entering cohort Completion Four-year Six-year graduation rates graduation rates were 24 were 23 percentage points percentage points lower among lower among Philadelphia Philadelphia students students Questions for Further Reflection: 1. What practices are in place at colleges for supporting Philadelphia students’ progress across the entire college continuum? Technical Notes Our comparison of Philadelphia versus non-Philadelphia student patterns includes a smaller number of colleges than the other analyses since fewer colleges provided non-Philadelphia student data. As for the analyses of Philadelphia students above, the colleges that provided data on connection, entry, and completion are different for each step in the progression, making comparisons across the continuum challenging. The Technical Appendix provides a full overview of which colleges included both Philadelphia and non-Philadelphia data that were used in our analyses. 18 | P a g e
  • 20. 3. Preliminary Recommendations As a community that seeks to build its profile as a city working to address its low rates of educational attainment, Philadelphia is poised for greater economic, cultural, and community development. However, to meet this important charge, Philadelphia stakeholders will need to continue to connect the mayor’s ambitious goal of doubling the number of Philadelphians with college degrees to the ground-level work that leads to real changes for students in the community. We hope that the data presented in this report can help to do just that, guide new conversations about policies and practices as well as future data collection efforts that can lead to action in the community. Below, we offer some preliminary but concrete policy and data recommendations for moving forward, as well as a series of questions for refining and generating new ideas among Council members and in the Philadelphia community. Moving Forward: Policy Recommendations Data Findings Policy Directions 1. Identify opportunities across K-12 and postsecondary partners for Student applications are rising faster Connection than acceptances and enrollments. increasing not only Philadelphia student applications but also corresponding enrollments Developmental education course 2. Explore strategies at the K-12 requirements are high for and postsecondary levels to Entry Philadelphia students entering minimize the burden of college, especially at the community developmental education as a college. barrier Getting through the first semester and the first year of college are not 3. Target persistence strategies to the only critical retention points for students dropping off after students; students may also be completing a second year Progress losing ground even after completing their second year. Academic challenges appear to 4. Consider and address non- explain only a portion of Philadelphia academic reasons for student student drop off once in college. loss 19 | P a g e
  • 21. Policy Recommendations (cont’d) 5. Design policies that help more students graduate within four Among Philadelphia students years Completion completing college, many are taking 6. Ensure that policies, particularly more than four years to graduate. financial aid policies, support longer times to graduation when appropriate 7. Identify the reasons why these High School Colleges of different selectivity tend to enroll Philadelphia students from primary pathways exist (e.g., Type certain high school types. academic preparation, recruitment policies) Philadelphia Differences exist between the 8. Identify particular strategies that patterns of students from have been successful in targeting vs. Non- Philadelphia versus non-Philadelphia the needs of Philadelphia Philadelphia high schools. students Moving Forward: Recommendations for Future Data Collection Although we have identified some key findings and some possible policy implications and directions in this report, one of the most important next steps out of this effort will be to improve data collection and analysis moving forward. As with any new data collection, a crucial element of this process has been not only learning from the content of the data, but also identifying some of the specific challenges in collecting and analyzing these data. This first round of the Council’s data collection uncovered some key challenges around (1) individual institutional research capacity, (2) shared interpretations of data definitions, and (3) data interpretation. These types of challenges are typical of multi-system data collection efforts. Developing a common set of indicators for collection across independent institutions is an iterative process; refinements need to continue to be made if these data are to inform policy changes and drive effective improvement strategies and practices in a meaningful way. We have developed a series of recommendations that we hope can help strengthen these data efforts in the future. Add additional variables: Information about introductory college-level (credit-bearing) coursework (e.g., Gateway Math and English classes) would add opportunities for additional analyses. • Although information was available about developmental education course enrollment and pass rates, the degree to which this led to students’ enrollment in introductory college-level coursework versus additional developmental education courses could not be determined. 20 | P a g e
  • 22. Strengthen areas in which data were missing: Less complete developmental education and non-Philadelphia student data limited the ability to analyze and draw firm conclusions about these points along the pathway to completion. Only 11 of 20 schools in the study provided developmental education data on their Philadelphia students for both Math and English, and only seven schools provided such information about non-Philadelphia students. This represented fewer schools than in our other analyses. Collect additional years of data: Although we highlight areas to strengthen this data collection, the data from the original template suggested many trends. However, the most recent data in this study was from the 2008-2009 academic year. Information from the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 academic years will be particularly useful in order to explore significant contextual influences like the economy that may have had an impact in the most recent years. Collect student-level data: A longer-term goal for this effort might be to collect and analyze data at the student level. The collection of data at the school level limited the ability to track the progress of individual students across the college continuum. For example, from the data in this study, it could not be determined whether an increase in applications across colleges represented an increase in the number of students applying or an increase in the number of applications per student. Likewise, bivariate and multivariate analyses, which could highlight associations between demographic factors and the outcomes in this study, can only be conducted with student-level data. Furthermore, without student-level data, we cannot track the impact of transfer patterns on these data. Without the ability to match students across colleges, we cannot determine if a student enrolling initially in one college graduates from another college. Finally, student-level data would offer the opportunity to link School District of Philadelphia, Archdiocese, and Independent high school data and answer additional questions about the connection of students from the K-12 to the postsecondary education system. Align metrics with those of Complete College America: Complete College America is a national nonprofit working to increase the number of Americans with a college degree and to close degree attainment gaps for traditionally underrepresented students. In July 2010, the National Governors Association (NGA) adopted the Complete College America Common Completion Metrics, highlighting the importance of consistent data to document the progress and success of postsecondary students across all states. Having a commensurate set of metrics from Philadelphia would signal Philadelphia’s willingness to align with this national agenda, and would allow for higher-quality data reporting and use to drive policy. 21 | P a g e
  • 23. Questions for Further Reflection A key focus of this report is to present data in a way that can contribute to new conversations across the community. For all of our findings, we posed a number of questions for further reflection that arose during the analysis process and during ongoing conversations with Council members. We have compiled these below. Throughout the community, we hope that these questions can help make the data presented in this report actionable and drive partners toward an aligned, multi-sector response in supporting students’ degree attainment once in college. 1. What is driving the increase in applications: more students applying or more applications per students? 2. Why hasn’t the increase in college applications led to a greater rise in acceptances and subsequent enrollments? 3. What are some of the differences among students enrolling in four- and two-year institutions that might be driving higher developmental education course rates at CCP? 4. What is driving higher developmental education enrollment and pass rates in English versus math and what are the policy implications at both the K-12 and college levels? 5. How does placement and success in developmental education courses impact students’ performance in introductory college-level coursework and their prospects for completing college? 6. To what extent do changes in progress numbers represent students leaving college versus simply not being on track to a four- or six-year graduation but still enrolled? 7. Among those students who leave college or are at risk of not completing, what connections might exist between why and when a student falls off the pathway to graduation, and how might strategies be targeted for students falling off track at different points on the college continuum? 8. What is driving the low percentage of students who are on track to graduate in four years after the second year? 22 | P a g e
  • 24. 9. What are the different student support strategies or institutional policy changes that can help students to pursue and stay on a four-year, or alternatively a six-year, track to graduation? 10. What is the impact on students of taking six years versus four years to graduate? 11. How are college-level policies impacting students’ longer time to graduation and/or supporting students who take longer? 12. What is there to learn from the patterns of students enrolling in certain college types from specific high school types? 13. What are the reasons that pathways to certain college types are different across different high school types? 14. What practices are in place at colleges for supporting Philadelphia students’ progress across the entire college continuum? Closing Thoughts In order to reach Mayor Nutter’s goal of doubling the baccalaureate attainment rate of Philadelphians by 2017, the partners in this work will need to explore the questions outlined above and develop policies to address the challenges that the data reveal. Furthermore, college-specific strategies that have improved access and completion outcomes for students do exist in the community, and offer learning opportunities for other colleges. Improving and standardizing the use of data across Pennsylvania colleges will help institutions to maximize the successes and better understand the challenges, while enabling better tracking of changes in college outcomes over time. The Council for College and Career Success, with its representatives from a variety of stakeholder groups, has an opportunity to facilitate the alignment of college success strategies among colleges and between the K-12 and postsecondary system. The data suggest that strategies to help students progress through the first years of college and persist through to college completion need to be diverse and adaptable, addressing academic, financial, and students’ life circumstances. Employing a holistic approach that includes curriculum alignment, adequate financial aid offerings, and targeted student advising services will be essential for achieving the Mayor’s college completion goal for Philadelphians and for positioning Philadelphians to succeed in a world that increasingly demands a college-educated workforce. 23 | P a g e