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US Leveraged Finance Market Update
          October, 2012
  Steve Miller - Managing Director
October 2012, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis
S&P/LSTA Index - Average Price
97




 95




 93




 91




 89

  1/11     3/11     5/11     7/11     9/11   11/11   1/12   3/12   5/12   7/12   9/12


Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Visible Loan Flows

$6B

                                 CLO Issuance
                                 Loan Mutual Flows
$3B




                                                     Text
$0B




-$3B




-$6B
    6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12

   Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data, EPFR
High-Yield Takeout Activity

 $8B




 $6B




  $4B




   $2B




   $0B
         10/11   11/11   12/11   1/12   2/12   3/12   4/12   5/12   6/12   7/12   8/12   9/12




Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Average New-Issue Clearing Yield of First Lien Loans
9%




8%




7%




6%




5%
 8/11   9/11   10/11 11/11 12/11    1/12    2/12   3/12   4/12   5/12   6/12   7/12   8/12   9/12


Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Opportunistic Loan Volume

$35B
          Text
                                                   Repricing
                                                   Dividends

$23B




$12B




$0B
       1/12       2/12        3/12        4/12      5/12   6/12   7/12   8/12   9/12

       Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Loan Default Rate

 12%


10%


 7%



5%



2%



0%
 12/98      8/00       4/02       12/03     8/05   4/07   12/08   8/10   9/12

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Final thoughts


• Volume boom: dividends in focus


• CLO calendar chock-a-block


• Institutional allocations on the rise


• Macro risks remain
Follow LCD

www.lcdcomps.com
news, analysis, research, archives


www.linkedin.com/groups/LCD-Leveraged-Loan-Group-2092432
LCD Leveraged Loan Group ...
9,000+ contacts


www.twitter.com/lcdnews
Headlines, market chatter


www.facebook.com/lcdcomps/
Daily Playbook, headlines, video analysis
Copyright 2012 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
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October 2012, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Text US Leveraged Finance Market Update October, 2012 Steve Miller - Managing Director
  • 3. S&P/LSTA Index - Average Price 97 95 93 91 89 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 4. Visible Loan Flows $6B CLO Issuance Loan Mutual Flows $3B Text $0B -$3B -$6B 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data, EPFR
  • 5. High-Yield Takeout Activity $8B $6B $4B $2B $0B 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 6. Average New-Issue Clearing Yield of First Lien Loans 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 7. Opportunistic Loan Volume $35B Text Repricing Dividends $23B $12B $0B 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 8. Loan Default Rate 12% 10% 7% 5% 2% 0% 12/98 8/00 4/02 12/03 8/05 4/07 12/08 8/10 9/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 9. Final thoughts • Volume boom: dividends in focus • CLO calendar chock-a-block • Institutional allocations on the rise • Macro risks remain
  • 10. Follow LCD www.lcdcomps.com news, analysis, research, archives www.linkedin.com/groups/LCD-Leveraged-Loan-Group-2092432 LCD Leveraged Loan Group ... 9,000+ contacts www.twitter.com/lcdnews Headlines, market chatter www.facebook.com/lcdcomps/ Daily Playbook, headlines, video analysis
  • 11. Copyright 2012 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees.