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European Leveraged Finance Market Update
              March, 2013
        Sucheet Gupte - Director
European Market Trends
Text




       • Loan issuance was €3.03B in February 2013;
         high yield issuance was €7.4B .

       • Estimated outflows out of European HY funds was €220M for
         the four weeks ending February 28th.


       • Secondary markets were up:
         loan markets went up 5 bps to finish the month at 99.47;
         high yield markets were up 19 bps to finish the month at 102.3.


       • The S&P European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI) finished the month up 0.4%.


       • Default rates were mixed -- default rates by principal amount rose;
         default rate by issuer count fell.
European Loan Flow Name Prices
    100


     99
                                                      Text
     97


      96


      94


          93


          91

               2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12 6/12 8/12 10/12 12/12   2/13
.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
European HY Bond Flow Name Prices

    106


    102

                                              Text
     98


      94


      89


          85


          81

               2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12 6/12 8/12 10/12 12/12   2/13
.     Source: Bloomberg
ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return
    2.5%
                                          February 2013:   + 0.40%
                          Text            January 2013:    + 1.18%
                                          Jan-Feb 2013:    + 1.59%
                                          Jan-Feb 2012:    + 3.34%
    1.9%




    1.2%




    0.6%




    -0.1%
        12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/1211/1212/12 1/13 2/13

.     Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
Volume: New-issue Loans vs. HY Bonds
            15
                                                         HY bonds
                                     Text                Loans

            11
€billions




             8
                                                                                                 €7.4B



             4


                                                                                                 €3.03B
             0
             11/1112/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/1211/1212/12 1/13 2/13

 .           Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans
                 Default Rate by Principal Amount                        Default Rate by Issuer Count


    16%                                                         16%


    13%                                                        13%


    10%                                                        10%



    6%                                                       Text
                                                                6%



    3%                                                         3%



    0%                                                         0%
      2/09        2/10        2/11       12/11        2/13       2/09   2/10      12/11        2/12     2/13

.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Themes to watch for
Text




   • Repricings are back on table, as issuers take advantage of strong demand. February’s
         tally was the highest number of purely European repricings in any month on record.


   • Along with repricings, some sponsors are tabling dividend recap deals to take
        advantage of investor demand.

       • Still strong demand for high yield bonds.


       • Bond for loan-take-outs will continue to keep pace as issuers address their maturity
          concerns.

       • Cairn priced its €300.5M CLO, the first new arbitrage CLO in Europe since
          the crisis. There are signs about pricing new CLOs.


       • There is renewed optimism about M&A.
Text
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March 2013, European Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Text European Leveraged Finance Market Update March, 2013 Sucheet Gupte - Director
  • 2. European Market Trends Text • Loan issuance was €3.03B in February 2013; high yield issuance was €7.4B . • Estimated outflows out of European HY funds was €220M for the four weeks ending February 28th. • Secondary markets were up: loan markets went up 5 bps to finish the month at 99.47; high yield markets were up 19 bps to finish the month at 102.3. • The S&P European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI) finished the month up 0.4%. • Default rates were mixed -- default rates by principal amount rose; default rate by issuer count fell.
  • 3. European Loan Flow Name Prices 100 99 Text 97 96 94 93 91 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12 6/12 8/12 10/12 12/12 2/13 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 4. European HY Bond Flow Name Prices 106 102 Text 98 94 89 85 81 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12 6/12 8/12 10/12 12/12 2/13 . Source: Bloomberg
  • 5. ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return 2.5% February 2013: + 0.40% Text January 2013: + 1.18% Jan-Feb 2013: + 1.59% Jan-Feb 2012: + 3.34% 1.9% 1.2% 0.6% -0.1% 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/1211/1212/12 1/13 2/13 . Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
  • 6. Volume: New-issue Loans vs. HY Bonds 15 HY bonds Text Loans 11 €billions 8 €7.4B 4 €3.03B 0 11/1112/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/1211/1212/12 1/13 2/13 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 7. ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans Default Rate by Principal Amount Default Rate by Issuer Count 16% 16% 13% 13% 10% 10% 6% Text 6% 3% 3% 0% 0% 2/09 2/10 2/11 12/11 2/13 2/09 2/10 12/11 2/12 2/13 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 8. Themes to watch for Text • Repricings are back on table, as issuers take advantage of strong demand. February’s tally was the highest number of purely European repricings in any month on record. • Along with repricings, some sponsors are tabling dividend recap deals to take advantage of investor demand. • Still strong demand for high yield bonds. • Bond for loan-take-outs will continue to keep pace as issuers address their maturity concerns. • Cairn priced its €300.5M CLO, the first new arbitrage CLO in Europe since the crisis. There are signs about pricing new CLOs. • There is renewed optimism about M&A.
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