Beyond the Edge: Australia's First National Peri-Urban Conference La Trobe University Oct 2013

1. Peri-Urban
Demographic Change
by
Graeme Hugo
ARC Australian Professorial Fellow, Professor of Geography and
Director of the Australian Population and Migration Research Centre ,
The University of Adelaide
Presentation to Beyond the Edge: Australia’s First National Peri-Urban Conference:
Explaining Ideas, Practice, Policy and Research, organised by La Trobe University
and RMIT, La Trobe University, Melbourne Campus
2 October 2013

2. Outline of Presentation
• Introduction
• Peri-Urban Areas: An International
Perspective
• Defining Peri-Urban Areas
• Population Dynamics
– Natural Increase
– Internal Migration
– International Migration
• Population Characteristics
• Key Trends and Policy Issues

3. A GLOBAL PHENOMENON
• Between 2013 and 2050 the world’s
population will increase by around 2
billion
• All of this increase will be in urban
areas most in Asia, Africa, South
America and the Pacific
• Most of this increase will be in periurban areas

4. A Period of Exceptional Population
Growth in Australia
• 2006-12 Australian population increased
by 2.27 million compared with 1.18 million
2001-6
• Net migration gain from overseas has
reached unprecedented levels (1.41
million, 2006-12)
• Fastest growing OECD country
• However spatial pattern of growth uneven

5. Growth “Hot Spots”
• Mining Areas
• Coastal Areas
• Outer Suburbs
• Peri-Urban Areas
*Characterised by lagging of infrastructure
and service provision. In Australia this is
based largely on past population growth
rather than present and future population

6. Rethinking The Rural/Urban
Dichotomy
• Blurring of distinction
• Role of enhanced transport and
communication
• Extension of Functional Metropolitan
Regions
• Reduced tyranny of distance
• Extended commuting
• Global phenomenon - eg. In China

8. Defining Peri-Urban Areas
• No standard definition
• Attempts over long period (eg Rural-Urban
Fringe literature beginning in 1950’s)
• In Australia - ASGC Outer Metropolitan
Statistical Divisions
- ASGS – new Greater Capital
Statistical Areas and Significant Urban
Areas

9. “……centres with a population of over
10,000 and contain not only the built up
urban area but likely growth over the
next 15 years plus immediately
associated rural areas.”

10. Schematic Representation of
Suggested Functional Metropolitan
Region

11. Key Features of Peri-Urban
Areas
• The dynamic expanding edge zone of major
cities
• Mix of urban and rural land issues
• Rapid change in land use with increasingly
intensive uses replacing less intensive uses
• Rapid population change
• Governance issues and conflicts because of
different interest groups
• Growth of Retirement Communities

12. Key Demographic Features
• Increasing dynamism and diversity
• Rapid growth
• Increasing diversity of population and
households
• Retirement migration, second homes

13. APPROACH TAKEN HERE
Two groups of Local Government
Areas
(a)National Growth Areas Alliance
(NGAA) on the edge of Metropolitan
Areas
(b) Peri-Urban Areas Adjoining new
metropolitan regions

14. Box 1: The National Growth Areas Alliance (NGAA)
Local Government Areas
New South Wales
Victoria
Queensland
Western Australia
South Australia
Blacktown, Camden, Campbelltown,
Liverpool, Penrith
Casey, Cardinia, Wyndham, Melton, Hume
and Whittlesea
Moreton Bay, Logan, Ipswich
Gosnells, Wanneroo, Swan, Cockburn,
Mandurah, Serpentine -Jarrahdale,
Kwinana, Armadale, Rockingham
Playford, Mount Barker

15. Adjoining Areas, 2011
New South Wales Cessnock, Lake Macquarie, Lithgow, Newcastle, Oberon, Singleton, Upper
Lachlan Shire, Wingecarribee, Wollongong
Victoria
Bass Coast, Baw Baw, Golden Plains, Hepburn, Macedon Ranges, Mitchell,
Moorabool, Mount Alexander, Murrindindi, Queenscliff, Surf Coast
Queensland
Gold Coast, Lockyer Valley, Scenic Rim, Somerset, Sunshine Coast
Beverley, Chittering, Gingin, Mandurah, Murray, Northam, Toodyay,
Western Australia Wandering, York
Tasmania
Derwent Valley, Glamorgan/Spring Bay, Huon Valley, Southern Midlands
South Australia
Adelaide Hills - North and Balance, Alexandrina - Coastal and Strathalbyn,
Barossa - Angaston, Barossa and Tanunda, Light, Mallala, Mount Barker Central and Balance, Victor Harbor, Yankalilla

16. DYNAMICS OF POPULATION
CHANGE
The population of local areas is shaped by three
demographic processes:
• The excess of births over deaths (natural
increase)
• The excess of immigrants from overseas over
emigrants who leave the area and Australia (net
international migration)
• The excess of in-migrants from elsewhere in
Australia over out-migrants moving to other parts
of Australia (net internal migration)

17. Box 2: Alliance LGAs as a Percent of
Australia as a Whole
Source: ABS 2011 Census
Total population
Population growth 2006-11
Household Growth 2006-11
All migrants
Recent migrants
Persons aged 65+
Persons aged less than 15
Single parent families
Internal migrants
Persons aged 0-4
15.9
35.4
31.6
19.0
17.5
11.5
19.0
18.3
16.5
19.4

18. Adjoining Areas as a Percent
of Australia as a Whole, 2011
Total population
Population Growth 2006-11
Household growth 2006-11
All migrants
Recent migrants
Persons aged 65+ years
Persons aged less than 15 years
Single parent families
Internal migrants
Persons aged 0-4 years
9.9
9.4
10.3
7.3
6.3
11.6
9.8
10.3
10.9
3.5

19. AGE STRUCTURE
The age composition of areas is fundamental to
planning services since demand for all services is
influenced by age. It is crucial to recognise that
age groups do not all grow at the same rate or at
the same rate as the total population. Hence
demand for particular services can change rapidly
even though there may be little change in the total
population size.

20. Alliance LGAs: Age-Sex
Distribution, 2006 and 2011
Source: ABS 2006 and 2011 Censuses
2006 (shaded) and 2011
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
Age 45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
150000
Males
Females
100000
50000
0
Number
50000
100000
150000

21. Adjoining Areas: Age Sex
Distribution, 2006 and 2011
Source: ABS 2006 and 2011 Census
Adjoining LGAs 2006 (shaded) and 2011
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
Age 45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
80000
Males
60000
Females
40000
20000
0
Number
20000
40000
60000
80000

22. Australia and Alliance LGAs: Age
Sex Distribution, 2011
Australia (shaded) and Alliance LGAs
Age
Males
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
5
Females
4
3
2
1
0
Percent
1
2
3
4
5

23. Australia and Adjoining LGAs:
Age Sex Distribution, 2011

24. Largest Immigrant Groups in
Alliance LGAs, 2011
United Kingdom
214,061 Iraq
18,892
New Zealand
113,270 Malaysia
14,911
India
68,573 Germany
14527
Philippines
56,916 Lebanon
13763
South Africa
28,083 Netherlands
12335
Italy
27,537 Malta
12121
Fiji
24,328 Croatia
11903
Vietnam
22,666 Samoa
11239
Sri Lanka
21,862 Turkey
11163
China
21,233

25. Largest Immigrant Groups in
Adjoining LGAs, 2011
England
New Zealand
Scotland
South Africa
Germany
Netherlands
Italy
China
Philippines
USA
108,473
75,670
14,486
12,978
12,394
9,379
8,602
8,492
8,246
7,383
India
Japan
Ireland
FYROM
Canada
Korea (South)
Wales
Malaysia
Croatia
Thailand
6,945
4,774
4,601
4,534
4,410
3,893
3,760
3,654
2,958
2,923

26. Visa Categories of Settler Arrivals in
Alliance LGAs
Number
Percent of
Australian
Total
Family
109,095
19.3
Skilled
204,486
19.1
45,536
28.7
359,117
20.0
Humanitarian
Total

27. Visa Categories of Settler Arrivals in
Adjoining LGAs
Visa Category
Family
Skilled
Humanitarian
Total
Number
18434
1721
33800
53955
Percent of
Australian Total
5.6
2.0
5.1
5.0

28. Household Dynamics
•
•
•
•
Grow at different rates to population
Faster growth than population
Larger average size
Over-representation of families with
children
• Aged households in retirement areas

29. Alliance LGAs: Households
and Families, 2011
Growth in households 2006-11
Percent of households privately renting
Percent in non-private dwellings
Average size of household
Percent of households with two parents
and children
Percent of households with single
parent and children
Percent own house outright
Percent with mortgage
Median monthly mortgage
Median weekly rent
Alliance
261,418
13.5
1.2
2.8
38.6
Australia
616,220
13.9
3.7
2.6
30.7
13.2
10.6
24.5
43.7
$1850
$295
31.0
33.1
$1800
$285

30. Adjoining LGAs: Households
and Families, 2011
Growth in households 2006-11
Percent of households privately renting
Percent in non-private dwellings
Average size of household
Percent of households with two parents and children
Percent of households with single parent and children
Percent own house outright
Percent with mortgage
Average median monthly mortgage
Average median weekly rent
Adjoining Australia
247,692 616,220
12.7
13.9
3.9
3.7
2.5
2.6
29.9
30.7
11.3
10.6
32.6
31.0
33.2
33.1
$1,527
$1,800
$217
$285

31. Alliance LGAs: Workforce
Issues
Male participation rate
Female participation rate
Percent unemployed
Youth unemployment
Median personal income per week
Percent in Professional/Managerial
occupations
Percent of dwellings with no motor
vehicle
Percent travel to work by car
Alliance
74.3
59.9
6.2
13.3
$598
Australia
71.2
59.2
5.6
12.2
$577
25.0
6.3
34.8
9.0
82.7
78.2

32. Adjoining LGAs: Workforce
Issues
Male participation rate
Female participation rate
Percent unemployed
Youth unemployment
Average median personal income per week
Percent in Professional /Managerial occupations
Percent of dwellings with no motor vehicle
Percent travel to work by car
Adjoining
68.2
57.0
6.2
13.1
$516
30.6
5.5
87.0
Australia
71.2
59.2
5.6
12.2
$577
34.8
9.0
78.2

33. Key Demographic Issues 1
• The LGAs are absorbing a disproportionately large share of national
growth in both population and households – twice their proportionate
share on average but greater in several LGAs.
• They are absorbing a disproportionate share of growth in the
dependent children and youth groups.
• While they have a lower share of the nation’s rapidly growing aged
population, it is growing faster than in the nation as a whole.
• Absorb a disproportionately large share of new immigrants
settling in Australia – this is especially marked for humanitarian
migrants, almost 1 in 3 of whom settle in these LGAs. Since
these groups have especially significant needs of support in the
early years of settlement, this represents an important feature of
several of the LGAs.

34. Key Demographic Issues 2
• LGAs are characterised by immigrant settlement of particular groups
including those from Mainly English speaking backgrounds
(especially young families), Indian background, Fijian and
Philippines-born. More than half of residents in these areas are a
migrant or the child of a migrant.
• LGAs have a disproportionately large share of persons who moved
within Australia during the 2006-11 period. This is an important part
of the dynamics of these areas and creates challenges for
infrastructure and service provision.
• There is a dominance of working families with mortgages in these
areas. There is a disproportionate representation of couples and
single parent families with children.

35. CONCLUSION
• Distinctive demography
• Need for research on defining PeriUrban areas
• Distinctive issues, lack infrastructure,
services
• Global issue