The document discusses future frameworks and techniques for analyzing potential futures, including short and long-term forecasting methods. It covers several frameworks for conceptualizing technologies and their development over time, including level of technology, dimensional models, chronological models, and paradigms of growth. Key drivers of technological change and the concept of discontinuities and adjacent advances are also examined.

1. Future Frameworks Simulation Workshop Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com November 9, 2009 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows “ The future is something which every one reaches at the rate of sixty miles an hour, whatever he does, whoever he is.” - C. S. Lewis Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/

3. The problem: pervasive change Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Botnets Chromallocyte Life extension Swarm computing Synthetic biology Virtual reality Quantum computing Genomics 22 nm Electric vehicles 3D printing Smart phones Supercomputing 3D printing Neuroimaging DIYbio Automatic markets Cloud computing Programmable matter Autonomous robotics New battery chemistry Affordable space launch 4G Cyber terrorism Pandemic Molecular nanotechnology Algal fuel Minimal genomes Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) Body area networks (BANs) Radiosurgery Cell broadband engine Positional assembly Peer-to-peer finance RFID Post-scarcity economy Smartgrid Rich attribute knowledge Fuel cell Nanoparticles Agalmics Knowledge engineering Solar power

6. 2. Dimensional model Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Nanotechnology Medicine, Neuroscience and Human Enhancement Biotechnology and Bioinformatics Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Energy and Environmental Systems Networks and Computing Systems A unifying framework for SU track synthesis

7. 3. Chronological model Future frameworks November 9, 2009 The ultimate future depends on the order in which advances arrive Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Whole human genome New computing paradigm Robotics Neural implants Electric vehicles Affordable space launch 3D printing Synthetic biology Space-based civilization New energy regime Uploading Modification of human biological drives Time (years) 2009-2020 2020-2030 2030-2050 +10 +20 +40 Brain emulation Room- temperature superconductivity Mechanosynthesis 1 GB broadband Battery innovation THz computing era

9. 4. Discontinuity and adjacent advances Future frameworks November 9, 2009 1Source: http://www.hansonrobotics.com/Hanson-Robots_March-14-09.pdf 2 Source: http://www.chem.ucla.edu/houk/research.htm Innovation is interdisciplinary and interstitial Technology or Application Made possible by… iPod / MP3 players Disk miniaturization, longer battery life, business model for music download Blue Brain cortical simulation project Neuroimaging, infrared-DIC videomicroscopy, neuronal simulation software Protein folding simulation reaching to 1 ms Distributed computing, GPUs, Markov State models Telepresence Converged corporate telecoms services CardioMEMS Applying MEMS technology to pacemakers Zeno empathic robot – Hanson Robotics Battery, nanoporous materials advances 1 De novo enzyme design (Houk 2 ) Molecular dynamics, computational chemistry Nokia mobile phone leadership Digital technology (vs. Motorola’s analog) Nanoparticles/improved cancer treatment Molecular biology, molecular manufacturing Rapid prototyping and simulation RepRap, Fab@Home, 3D organ printing Political campaigns (B Obama, R Paul, H Dean) Social media, online fundraising

11. 6. Conceptual shift: science Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Model and simulate Enumerate and experiment Build BioSpice.org SimTK.org PartsRegistry.org GeneGo (pathway modeling) Entelos virtual patient biosimulation FabAtHome.org

12. 6. Conceptual shift: health Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Source: http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2009/10/preventive-medicine-and-docs-vs.html Out of work due to technological advance: elevator operator, stock broker, physician (?)

13. Future frameworks November 9, 2009 7. Underlying drivers Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/ Penryn (45 nm) (65 nm) Nehalem Core i7 (45 nm) Westmere i9 (32 nm) (est.) Ivy Bridge (22 nm) (est.)

14. 7. Computing paradigm shifts Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/ ?

15. 7. Evolving computational models Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Current model extensibility Linear, von Neumann Parallel Cloud, grid, distributed Biological models Novel electronic models Traditional model Quantum Optical computing Cell broadband engine Liquid computer New materials New architectures: 3D stacking Programmable matter Molecular electronics DNA nanotech DNA computing Biosensors Cellular colonies Bacterial intelligence Bioparadigm discovery Space, not time-based

19. Future frameworks November 9, 2009 Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/SU_Executive_Program/ 1 http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.top500.org/system/8968 2 http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html 8. Full human neural simulation est: 2018 Average human: an estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2 IBM Roadrunner: 1.1 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1

20. 8. Engineering life into technology Future frameworks November 9, 2009 2029 1 Machine Human Human ′ ? Capability Year Source: MS Futures Group, March 2009 Biomolecular interface convergence 1 Source: The Singularity is Near

21. Futures frameworks review Future frameworks November 9, 2009 1. Tech level 2. Dimensional 3. Chronological 4. Velocity 5. FutureThink 6. Conceptual shifts 7. Drivers 8. Intersection

25. Thank you Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows Creative Commons 3.0 license Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/