A key aspect of futures studies is considering converging technologies and discontinuities. Technology growth can be linear, exponential, or discontinuous. The ultimate future depends on the order in which discontinuities like AI, nanotech, and anti-aging occur between 2009-2050. Rapid transitions, doubling capabilities, and related advances provide clues to discontinuous changes. The workshop simulated venture capitalists investing over 3 rounds from 2009-2040 based on Singularity University's 10 tracks.

1. Discontinuity Futures Simulation Workshop Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Singularity University August 5, 2009 GA11: 9-12 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows

7. Evolving concept of science Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Model and simulate Enumerate and experiment Build BioSpice.org SimTK.org PartsRegistry.org GeneGo (pathway modeling) Entelos virtual patient biosimulation FabAtHome.org

8. Evolving concept of health Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 A consumer-centric model of health care Source: http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/6/2/492

9. Extensibility of Moore’s Law Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Penryn 45 nm, 410-800m transistors Core 2 65 nm, 291m transistors Transistors per microprocessor Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/Unither

11. Computing paradigm shifts Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Electro-mechanical Relay Vacuum tube Transistor Integrated circuit Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/Unither ?

12. Evolving computational models Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Current model extensibility Linear, von Neumann Parallel Cloud, grid, distributed Biological models Novel models Traditional model Quantum Optical computing Cell broadband engine Liquid computer New materials 3D chip stacking Molecular electronics Solar transistors DNA nanotech DNA computing Biosensors Cellular colonies Bacterial intelligence Bioparadigm discovery

15. Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/Unither Full human brain neural simulation est: 2018 Average human: an estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2 IBM Roadrunner: 1.1 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1 1 http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.top500.org/system/8968 2 http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html

16. Engineering life into technology Discontinuity futures August 5, 2009 2029 Machine Human Human ′ ? Capability Year Biomolecular interface convergence

21. Thank you Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows Creative Commons 3.0 license