This is an updated version of the seven domains of predictability that define the different types of process technology given at the BPM & Case Management summit in Washington DC Jun e2014

1. Keith D Swenson
June 2014
Seven Domains of
Predictability / Unpredictability

2. Dependencies
 Unpredictable does not mean Random
 Weather is unpredictable, but not random
 Weather is predictable, but only a few days in advance
 Predictability is related to Dependencies
 Something that is “independent” is self contained and generally
predictable.
 Something that is dependent on a small number of external things might
be predictable to the extent that the external things are predictable
 Something dependent on large numbers of external things, or dependent
upon unpredictable things, generally can’t be predicted
 Look for the amount of external dependency

3. Closed Systems
 Even a closed system with no external dependencies can be
unpredictable.
 lots of internal dependencies
 iterations over and over
 overly sensitive responses
 Unpredictability is when the number of variables overwhelm the
possibilities.
 This is known as chaos
 but it is not random
 It is not just that you don’t know the status well enough to predict, but
that it is impossible to know the status that well

4. Repeatability
 Repeatable = Predictable
 perfectly repeating == perfectly predictable
 Can be differences, and still be repeatable
 Everything is predictable the moment before it happens
 It is about the amount of time ahead.
 this is the prediction horizon
 If the process lasts longer than the prediction horizon, then we
call it unpredictable.
 It can not be predefined, and must be managed “on the fly”

5. It is all about time
Unstructured
Late-structured

6. Trends from 2013 ACM Survey
from Nathaniel Palmer
BPM.com and WfMC, 2013

7. Percent Predictable Activities
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
None Less Than 10% 10% - 25% 25% - 50% 50% - 75% Greater than
75%
What percentage of your daily work interaction involves anticipated
or repetitive activities?
55% said that 75% or more of their work is unpredictable!

8. Work Categories 2013
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Percent of time in work category
Purely ad-hoc, never
happens the same way twice
Consistent, defined goals;
varying means to achieve
Documented and managed,
but not automated
Partially automated, but
frequent exceptions
Fully automated, no
opportunity to change
33%

9. How Common are Exceptions?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% exception to defined process
Less than 20%
20-40%
40-80%
More than 80%
All of Them!
What percent of work (over the
course of a week or month)
represents an exception to
standard procedures or defined
processes?

10. Use of ACM in 2013
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Use of ACM today
Using ACM today
We're using ACM today vis-a-vis BPM
platform2
We're using another platform to deliver
ACM (CRM, ECM, et al.)
No 'official' ACM environment but realize
similar benefits through other systems
We do not any ACM type functionality
today, but we're currently evaluating
Sounds interesting, but not currently
considered
No interest in ACM currently, don't
expect this to change

11. Seven Domains

12. Definition of BPM
Business Process Management (BPM) is a
discipline involving any combination of
modeling, automation, execution,
control, measurement and optimization
of business activity flows,
in support of enterprise goals,
spanning systems, employees, customers and partners
within and beyond the enterprise boundaries.

13. ApplicationDev
Email,Texting,
Twitter,Telephone
Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable
NotesDocuments
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data

14. ApplicationDev
Email,Texting,
Twitter,Telephone
Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable
NotesDocuments
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
Development Investment
High Low
End User Effort
Low High
Cost to Modify
High Low
Control of Process
High Low

15. ApplicationDev
Process
Technology
Email,Texting,
Twitter,Telephone
Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable
NotesDocuments
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data

16. ApplicationDev
PDSIntegration
HumanPM
ProductionCM
AdaptiveCM
SocialBiz
Email,Texting,
Twitter,Telephone
Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable
NotesDocuments
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data

17. ApplicationDev
PDSIntegration
HumanPM
PCM
ACM
SBS
Email,Texting,
Twitter,Telephone
ApplicationDev Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable
NotesDocuments
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
Traditional Programming model
Java
C++
C#
Design, develop, test, release
Very robust
Very Scalable and Performant
Costly to develop

18. ApplicationDev
PDSIntegration
HumanPM
PCM
ACM
SBS
Email,Texting,
Twitter,Telephone
PDSIntegration
Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable
NotesDocuments
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
Design using a process model
Easier to explain to business people
Easier to change and modify
Still mainly about server to server
integration, data flows
BPEL, Straight-Thru-Processing

19. ApplicationDev
PDSIntegration
HumanPM
PCM
ACM
SBS
Email,Texting,
Twitter,Telephone
HumanPM
Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable
NotesDocuments
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
Design using a process model
Model automatically takes care of
things that people do:
• reminders
• reassignment
• delegation
• escalations
• roles
• deadlines
Easier to
explain to
business
people
Easier to
change and
modify

20. ApplicationDev
PDSIntegration
HumanPM
PCM
ACM
SBS
Email,Texting,
Twitter,Telephone
ProductionCM
Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable
NotesDocuments
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
Production Case Mgmt
Design using a case
model, but for
knowledge worker
Processes are more like
menu choices
Data is center
High volume
Knowledge Worker
for hire
Design remains
separate from users

21. ApplicationDev
PDSIntegration
HumanPM
PCM
ACM
SBS
Email,Texting,
Twitter,Telephone
AdaptiveCM
Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable
NotesDocuments
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
Not designed using a model,
but simply styled by the
knowledge worker.
Guidelines NOT guardrails
Designed data objects
Checklists
More documents
More msgs and
notes
Less DB use
Planning is part of
the work

22. ApplicationDev
PDSIntegration
HumanPM
PCM
ACM
SBS
Email,Texting,
Twitter,Telephone
SocialBiz
Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable
NotesDocuments
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
Less customizable,
More basic capabilities
Special purpose cloud based
collaborative applications
• eVite, event bright
• Discussion forums
• Wiki
• Basic CMS

23. ApplicationDev
PDSIntegration
HumanPM
PCM
ACM
SBS
Email,Texting,
Twitter,Telephone
Email,Texting,
Twitter,Telephone
Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable
NotesDocuments
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data
Traditional communications
only,
No structure
All message and attachments

24. ApplicationDev
PDSIntegration
HumanPM
ProductionCM
AdaptiveCM
SocialBiz
Email,Texting,
Twitter,Telephone
Variable, UniquePredictable, Repeatable
NotesDocuments
& Unstructured
Data
Databases &
Structured
Data

25. Traditional Application Development Process Driven Server Integration
Unlimited data structures Somewhat simpler, process variables,
often XML related
Some UML/data structure diagrams
but mostly text programming languages
BPMN or other process diagram is used
as central organizing model
Java, J2EE, C++, C#, Visual Basic,
standard APIs
BPEL, WSDL, web services, event bus,
connectors

26. Process Driven Server Integration Human Process Management
Tasks directed to server, SOA Tasks directed to people
High performance, transactional,
emphasis on throughput
Correctness of assignment more
important than performance
N/A Organizational Model
Server/task assignment relatively fixed Roles change assignment at run time
No need to remind a server Reminders
No need to escalate Escalation
No feature to reassign Reassign Tasks
Mostly structured data Structured and unstructured data

27. Human Process Management Production Case Management
Process Centric Data Centric
Model with BPMN Model with something like CMMN
Organizational Model Organizational Model
Elaborate Process Diagram with
branches, condition logic and
automation, enforced order
Tasks are more like menu items chosen
by case worker at the time,
task order not strictly enforced
Process gets data from, and puts data to,
external repositories
Case is itself a repository for most of the
information in the case

28. Production Case Management Adaptive Case Management
Design Time / Run Time Separated No separate design time from run time
Developer creates application,
releases upgrades when ready
Might be deployed without customization,
Customization while using it
Case manager has fixed choices Choices can be created on fly
Data Centric Data Centric
Knowledge worker for-hire Knowledge worker with ownership
Regular deployment / training Evolves over time, emergent process
Structured and unstructured data Less structured data, more unstructured

29. Adaptive Case Management Social Business

30. Social Business Email / Text / IM
Small special purpose interaction
patterns
Send and receive messages
Some reminders, some notifications Just person to person messages
Example: document review and approval attachments
Some forms for particular data needed,
like schedule for meeting, or location, etc.
Only text / rich text

31. Q&A
For more information visit us at
http://www.fujitsu.com/interstage
or email at
interstage@us.fujitsu.com

32. Questions?
Keith D Swenson
Adaptive Case Management
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